外贸进出口增长加快 1-10月，全市外贸进出口总额12982.4亿元，同比增长14.7%，增速比1-9月提高0.3个百分点。其中，进 口5056.2亿元，同比增长25.4%；出口7926.2亿元，同比增长8.7%。10月份，全市外贸进出口总额同比 增长17.3%；其中，进口同比增长25.0%，出口同比增长12.6%。 消费市场保持增长 1-10月，全市社会消费品零售总额3597.63亿元，同比增长1.6%。按消费类型分，餐饮收入同比增长 2.4%，商品零售同比增长1.4%。部分基本生活类和升级类商品销售良好，限额以上单位粮油食品类、 五金电料类、体育娱乐用品类商品零售额分别同比增长50.0%、26.6%、26.1%。以旧换新相关商品保持 较快增长，限额以上单位通讯器材类、家具类、建筑及装潢材料类商品零售额分别同比增长62.4%、 58.2%、19.5%。线上消费增速较快，限额以上单位通过公共网络实现商品零售额同比增长19.6%。 固定资产投资降幅持续收窄 11月26日，东莞市统计局公布2025年1-10月东莞经济运行情况。东莞市统计局方面表示，1-10月，东莞 认真落实省委"1310"具体部署，坚持稳中求进工 ...

欧洲媒体评论称，位于红军城的特大型煤矿前景不明，而这是乌克兰境内唯一能够提供钢铁生产所需焦煤的矿区。如果乌克兰转向进口原材料，那么冶金企 业将面临巨大的财务压力。进口煤炭意味着更高的生产成本，同时还会面临供应链不稳定的风险。在如今国际局势复杂多变的背景下，原材料供应随时可能 遭遇运输中断、价格波动等问题。届时，乌克兰钢铁产品的出口将受到限制，冶金生产的规模也可能收缩。这不仅会影响乌克兰的经济收入，还会严重削弱 其在国际市场上的竞争力。 截至11月23日晚，乌克兰战场上传来了震惊的消息：红军城陷落。这座原本人口仅有6万的小城市，如今却像一颗重磅炸弹，引发了乌克兰乃至整个欧洲工 业领域的巨大震荡。根据相关报道，虽然红军城面积不大，但它对乌克兰煤炭和钢铁等行业的经济安全至关重要。乌克兰冶金工业协会明确表示，失去对该 地区矿产的控制将对行业构成严重风险。2024年，波克罗夫斯克矿业公司的焦煤产量占据了乌克兰市场的66%，这足以说明红军城在乌克兰煤炭产业中的举 足轻重地位。 冶金钢铁行业一直是战争时期的支柱产业，所有武器装备的生产都离不开钢铁的支持。乌克兰的专家认为，失去红军城（即波克罗夫斯克）所产的冶金焦 煤，将使整 ...

金融数据方面，今年10月新增人民币贷款2200亿元，较上年同期少增2800亿元；社会融资规模增量为 8161亿元，同比少增5959亿元；M2同比增长8.2%（前值为8.4%），M1同比增长6.2%，增速较上月放 缓1个百分点。从总量和结构看，企业部门贷款增加3500亿元，居民部门贷款减少3604亿元；存款方 面，居民部门存款减少13400亿元，非金融企业存款减少10853亿元，非银行金融机构存款增加18500亿 元。相关数据表明，银行等金融机构不断加大对企业的信贷支持，并以资本支出的形式转化为居民部门 收入，但居民收入并未更多形成消费，而是以储蓄的形式回到银行体系。居民部门贷款减少，反映楼市 刺激政策的效用边际减弱，房地产销售明显放缓，成交主要集中在一、二线城市和二手房领域。居民存 款下降，而非银行金融机构存款增加，表明部分居民存款流向了股市、基金、理财产品等领域。M2和 社会融资规模增速回落，主要受去年同期基数高、政府债券发行放缓的影响。M1同比增速放缓，与M2 之间的剪刀差再次走扩，反映当前企业盈利水平不高，企业对生产和经营保持谨慎，主动扩大投资的意 愿不足，信用扩张的渠道待进一步疏通。 从影响风险偏好的 ...

Report Information - Report Date: November 22, 2025 [1] - Report Title: High - frequency Economic Weekly Report (2025.11.16 - 2025.11.22) [2] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Yi Qiang, Wang Zheyi [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The economic situation shows mixed trends. Industrial production is weak, while personnel flow continues to rise, and freight prices increase slightly. Consumption and some segments of the real - estate market show different trends, and export - related indicators also have their own characteristics. [3] Summary by Catalog 1. Big - class Assets - This week, bond indices generally rose, with the ChinaBond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank bond index rising the most by 0.7%. Stock indices and commodities generally fell, with the ChiNext Index falling the most by 6.15%, and the Nanhua Precious Metals Index dropping by 4.07%. Most foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest decline of 1.19%, while the US dollar appreciated by 0.14% against the RMB. [3] 2. Industrial Production - Production performance is weak. From the upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27%, the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate dropped by 4.20 pcts to 24.80%, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62 pcts to 82.17%, while the crude steel output increased by 6.00%. In the real - estate chain, the rebar operating rate rose by 1.31 pcts to 43.29%, the float glass operating rate decreased by 0.34 pcts to 74.96%, and the mill operating rate dropped by 0.39 pcts to 33.29%. In the consumer goods chain, the polyester filament operating rate increased by 0.10 pcts to 91.33%, the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.89 pcts to 74.29%, and the methanol operating rate dropped by 0.17 pcts to 83.77%. In the automotive chain, the automotive semi - steel tire operating rate decreased by 2.61 pcts to 71.07%, and the automotive full - steel tire operating rate decreased by 3.19 pcts to 61.31%. [3] 3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow continued to rise, and freight prices increased slightly. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 6.45% week - on - week. The 7DMA of domestic flight operations increased by 1.51%, and the 7DMA of international flight operations increased by 0.84%. Beijing's subway passenger volume decreased, while those of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou increased. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index increased by 0.02% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period last year. [3] 4. Consumption - Automobile sales growth declined year - on - year, and price performance decreased. The previous period's automobile wholesale decreased by 5.00% year - on - year, and retail sales decreased by 9.00% year - on - year. Both the 4WMA of wholesale and retail year - on - year growth rates declined. The weekly movie box office decreased by 22%, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 22%. Agricultural product prices decreased, with pork prices dropping by 0.83% week - on - week and vegetable prices falling by 6.08% week - on - week. [3] 5. Investment - Construction performance was good, and the commercial housing market had a seasonal uptick. The weekly cement inventory ratio increased by 0.1 pcts, the cement price index increased by 0.43%, and the cement shipping rate remained the same as last week. The rebar inventory decreased by 3.8% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 1.3 pcts, and the rebar apparent demand increased by 6.7% week - on - week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction was good. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 24.2% week - on - week. By city - tier, the transaction area in first - tier cities decreased, while those in second - and third - tier cities increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities decreased by 0.1%, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.2% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land premium rate decreased week - on - week. [3] 6. Export - Port throughput decreased, and most shipping indices increased. The weekly port cargo throughput decreased by 1.1%, and the container throughput decreased by 5.4%. The BDI index increased by 7.06% week - on - week, the domestic SCFI index decreased by 3.98%, and the CCFI index increased by 2.63%. [3]

债 券 周 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 联系人 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 2025 年 11 月 22 日 地产季节性回升，港口吞吐量下行 ——高频经济周报（2025.11.16-2025.11.22） 风险提示：国内政策超预期，海外环境变化超预期 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 债 券 研 究 相关研究 - 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com ⚫ 工业生产：生产表现较弱。从上游来看，本期全国电厂样本区域用煤量周度环比下行 1.27%，石油沥青装置开工率周度环比下行 4.20pcts 至 24.80%，高炉开工率周度环比下 行 0.62cts 至 82.17%，粗钢产量周度环比上行 6.00%。从地产链来看，螺纹钢开工率周 度环比上行 1.31pcts 至 4 ...

Price-Related Summary - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index is at 1,045.84, down 16.48 from last week [3] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $63.38 per barrel, an increase of $0.37 from last week, while WTI crude oil settled at $59.00 per barrel, up $0.31 [3] - Average wholesale prices for vegetables decreased by ¥0.04 per kg, fruits by ¥0.01 per kg, pork by ¥0.15 per kg, beef by ¥0.25 per kg, and lamb by ¥0.40 per kg [3] Industrial-Related Summary - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index is at 3,456.21, down 66.82 from last week [14] - Glass futures closed at ¥987 per ton, down ¥45 per ton, and coking coal futures closed at ¥1,103 per ton, down ¥89 per ton [14] - The blast furnace operating rate is recorded at 82.17%, a decrease of 2.08% from last week, while the operating rate for petroleum asphalt is at 24.80%, down 4.20% [14] Real Estate Investment Summary - The land transaction area in 100 major cities is approximately 13,497,800 square meters, an increase of 7,013,200 square meters from last week [21] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities is about 1,725,600 square meters, up 330,500 square meters from last week [21] - The second-hand housing listing price index is recorded at 148.80, down 0.26, with the decline rate less than the previous week [21] Transportation and Retail Summary - Subway passenger volumes increased significantly, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen showing changes of -1.16%, 2.41%, 4.17%, and 1.91% respectively [31] - Box office revenue reached ¥656 million, an increase of ¥444 million from last week [31] - Retail sales of passenger cars totaled 67,312 units, up 21,256 units from last week [31] - The number of domestic flights executed was 86,716, an increase of 822 from last week [31]

消费市场增长加快。限额以上企业（单位）消费品零售额同比增长8.2%。其中，商品零售额同比 增长8.8%，餐饮收入同比增长1.6%。消费品以旧换新效应明显，家用电器和音像器材类商品销售额同 比增长42.2%，其中能效等级为1级和2级的商品销售额同比增长73.2%；智能手机销售额同比增长 67.4%；汽车类商品销售额同比增长6.4%，其中新能源汽车销售额同比增长33.7%。网上零售高速增 长，限上单位通过公共网络实现的零售额同比增长25.3%，增速高于限上单位消费品零售额17.1个百分 点，占限上单位消费品零售额的23%。 工业生产较快增长。规模以上工业增加值同比增长8.1%。从三大门类看，采矿业增加值同比增长 9.9%，制造业增加值同比增长6.4%，电力、热力、燃气及水的生产供应业增加值同比增长4.2%。从主 要行业看，煤炭开采和洗选业增加值同比增长11.4%，石油和天然气开采业增加值同比增长4%；装备制 造业增加值同比增长9.9%，其中，电气机械和器材制造业增加值同比增长34.1%，汽车制造业增加值同 比增长23.8%。从产品产量看，汽车产量同比增长5.9%，太阳能电池产量同比增长9.4%，发动机产量同 比增 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The economic situation from November 9 to November 15, 2025, shows weak supply and demand, with downward pressure on prices. Industrial production is weak, while personnel flow is increasing, and freight prices are slightly rising. Consumption, investment, and exports all show mixed trends, and there are also corresponding changes in the performance of major asset classes [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Major Asset Classes - Bond indices mostly rose, with the AA and AA - indices of ChinaBond corporate bonds rising the most, both by 0.06%. - Stock indices generally fell, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index falling the most, with a weekly decline of 3.85%. - Commodities showed mixed performance, with the Nanhua Precious Metals Index rising the most by 5.07% and the Nanhua Energy and Chemicals Index falling the most by 0.65%. - Most foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest decline of 1.36%, and the US dollar depreciating by 0.31% [1]. 2. Industrial Production - Upstream: The coal consumption of the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 0.70 pcts to 29.00%, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.36 pcts to 82.79%, while the crude steel output increased by 6.00% week - on - week. - Real estate chain: The operating rate of rebar increased by 0.68 pcts to 41.98%, the operating rate of float glass remained flat at 75.30%, and the mill operation rate decreased by 3.50 pcts to 33.68%. - Consumer goods chain: The operating rate of polyester filament increased by 0.41 pcts to 91.23%, the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.51 pcts to 76.18%, and the methanol operating rate decreased by 0.69 pcts to 83.94%. - Automobile chain: The operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires increased by 0.01 pcts to 73.68%, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires decreased by 0.96 pcts to 64.50% [1]. 3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow continued to rise. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 0.80% week - on - week. The 7DMA of domestic flight operations increased by 0.61%, while that of international flights decreased by 0.42%. Subway passenger volumes in Beijing and Shanghai decreased, while those in Shenzhen and Guangzhou increased. - Freight prices rose slightly. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index increased by 0.03% week - on - week, but the total volume was lower than the same period last year [1]. 4. Consumption - Automobile sales growth declined year - on - year. The previous period's automobile wholesale decreased by 22.00% year - on - year, and retail decreased by 19.00% year - on - year. Both the 4WMA of wholesale and retail year - on - year growth rates declined. - Movie box office and attendance increased. The weekly box office increased by 107%, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers increased by 94%. - Agricultural product prices declined. The price of pork decreased by 0.93% week - on - week, and the price of vegetables decreased by 3.41% week - on - week [1]. 5. Investment - Construction performance was weak. The cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 1.3 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 0.03%, and the cement shipping rate decreased by 3.7 pcts. Rebar inventory decreased by 2.3% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 pcts, and the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 1.0% week - on - week. - The real estate market showed seasonal upward trends. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 20.1% week - on - week, with increases in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 1.6%, while the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.4%. The land transaction area in 100 cities decreased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [1]. 6. Exports - Port throughput decreased. The weekly port cargo throughput decreased by 4.3%, while the container throughput increased by 1.4%. - Most shipping indices rose. The BDI index increased by 1.00% week - on - week, the domestic SCFI index decreased by 2.92%, and the CCFI index increased by 3.39% week - on - week [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, real - estate sales remained weak. The real - estate market is in a situation of stock competition, with stable prices but falling volumes in the new - home market and trading volume for price in the second - hand home market. Next year may face concentrated selling of second - hand new homes due to the "5 - year resale restriction policy" [2]. - In terms of investment and production, most commodity prices declined. The price of rebar increased slightly, while the prices of asphalt, glass futures, and cement decreased. Most industrial production start - up rates declined, with only the start - up rate of polyester filament rising slightly [2]. - In terms of consumption, the momentum of travel was strong. Subway travel, domestic flights, and movie box - office were above the seasonal level, while automobile consumption was below the seasonal level [2]. - In terms of inflation, pork and vegetable prices declined, while oil prices rose [2]. - In terms of exports, the SCFI and BDI declined this week [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Real - Estate Sales - From November 7th to November 13th, the new - home sales area increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed. The new - home sales of cities at all levels were stronger than the previous period to varying degrees, but still significantly weaker than the same period last year. Among key cities, Shanghai and Hangzhou had year - on - year increases, while others mostly declined [7]. - From November 7th to November 13th, second - hand home sales increased month - on - month but declined significantly year - on - year. Among key cities, the month - on - month sales of all key cities were stronger than the previous period, and the year - on - year decline of Beijing and Hangzhou narrowed, while others widened [7]. 3.2 Investment - This week, most commodity prices declined. The price of rebar increased slightly, while the prices of asphalt, glass futures, and cement decreased [36]. 3.3 Production - This week, most start - up rates declined. The start - up rates of petroleum asphalt, steel - mill blast furnaces, and coking enterprises decreased, as did the start - up rates of automobile tires and PTA. The start - up rate of polyester filament increased slightly [44]. 3.4 Consumption - Subway travel, domestic flights, and movie box - office were above the seasonal level, while automobile sales were below the seasonal level [53]. 3.5 Exports - This week, the SCFI index, BDI index, port cargo throughput, and CRB spot index all declined [60]. 3.6 Prices - Pork and vegetable prices declined slightly, while oil and rebar prices increased slightly [65].

Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics of China reported on the energy production situation for October 2025, highlighting stable growth in oil and gas production, while coal production showed a slight decline [1][2] Energy Production Overview - In October, the production of raw coal remained high, with an output of 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, and an average daily output of 13.12 million tons. From January to October, the total raw coal production reached 3.97 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [1] - Crude oil production also maintained growth, with an output of 18 million tons in October, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, although the growth rate slowed by 2.8 percentage points compared to September. The average daily output was 581,000 tons, and the total crude oil production from January to October was 180.64 million tons, up by 1.7% year-on-year [1] - Natural gas production saw a slowdown, with an output of 22.1 billion cubic meters in October, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, down by 3.5 percentage points from September. The average daily output was 710 million cubic meters, and the total natural gas production from January to October was 217 billion cubic meters, up by 6.3% year-on-year [2] Electricity Production Insights - Electricity production in the industrial sector accelerated, with a total generation of 800.2 billion kilowatt-hours in October, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, which is an acceleration of 6.4 percentage points compared to September. The average daily generation was 25.81 billion kilowatt-hours, and the total electricity production from January to October was 8,062.5 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [2] - By energy type, thermal power production turned positive with a year-on-year growth of 7.3% in October, compared to a decline of 5.4% in September. Hydropower increased by 28.2%, although the growth rate slowed by 3.7 percentage points. Nuclear power grew by 4.2%, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points from September. Wind power saw a decline of 11.9%, with the drop expanding by 4.3 percentage points, while solar power increased by 5.9%, but the growth rate slowed by 15.2 percentage points [2]