（原标题：德国11月出口下降 工业生产增长） 德国《商报》1月9日报道，德国联邦统计局最新数据显示，2025年11月德国出口1281亿欧元，环比 下降2.5%，为一年半以来最大降幅，主要受美国和欧盟需求疲软影响。其中对美出口108亿欧元，环比 下降4.2%，同比下降22.9%；对欧盟国家出口731亿欧元，下降4.2%。相比之下，对华出口增长3.4%， 达到65亿欧元。当月进口额为1151亿欧元，小幅增长0.8%。其中，自华进口149亿欧元，环比增长8%， 自美进口77亿欧元，增长7.9%。与此同时，工业生产增长0.8%，连续第三个月保持增长。工业生产增 长主要得益于制造业的良好表现，整体增长2.1%。其中汽车工业大幅增长7.8%，机械工程增长3.2%。 不过，能源业产量下降7.8%，建筑业下降0.8%。 ...

We begin today’s pre-market trading session slightly in the red following a strong day of trading Monday, and following a slew of economic reports ahead of the bell they have begun to slide a bit deeper down. Ahead of these reports, the Dow and Nasdaq were both -15 points and the S&P 500 was -2. Currently, the Dow is -80 points, the Nasdaq -70 and the S&P 500 -12. The small-cap Russell 2000 is -6 points at this hour.Q3 GDP Much Stronger Than Expected: +4.3%Today’s delayed Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) cam ...

今日周二(12月23日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于16363一线上方，今日开盘于16200元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报16535元/千克，上涨4.90%，最高触及16573元/千克，最低下探16088元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 交易者在周二稍晚等待美国第三季度（Q3）国内生产总值（GDP）的初步读数。预计美国经济在第三 季度的年增长率为3.2%。这将比第二季度的3.8%有所放缓。如果GDP报告结果强于预期，可能会提振 美元（USD），并在短期内对以美元计价的商品价格施加压力。此外，美国耐用品订单、工业生产和 ADP就业周度数据也将在同一天公布。 【要闻速递】 【最新白银期货行情解析】 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周一表示，美国可能会保留或出售最近几周在委内瑞拉海岸扣押的石油，路透 社周一报导。特朗普补充说，美国还将保留被扣押的船只。 沪银价格再度拉升，警惕价格在连续大幅上涨后波动性显著加剧的风险。沪银溢价扩大至613元/克，国 内情绪高涨。沪银主力合约参考运行区间15700-16540。沪银主力合约短期支撑位于15500元/千克附 近，上方阻力看向 ...

Economic Growth and Stability - Despite increased volatility in economic data in the second half of the year, the annual economic growth target is expected to be met due to a strong first half, with GDP growth of 5.2%[1] - Industrial production growth remains stable, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% in November, slightly down from 4.9% in October[12] - Exports have rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% in November, up from -1.1% in October, driven by external demand[12] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth decreased from -1.7% to -2.6%, with a monthly decline of 11.5% in November[15] - Manufacturing investment maintained positive growth at 1.9% year-on-year, although monthly growth was negative at -4.5%[16] - Real estate investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 15.9%, with a monthly drop of 30% in November[27] Consumer Spending - Social retail sales growth fell to 1.3% year-on-year in November, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, marking six consecutive months of decline[31] - The retail sales total saw a month-on-month decline of 0.42%, indicating weakened consumer momentum[31] - Major consumer categories, including jewelry and home appliances, experienced significant drops in sales growth, with jewelry sales falling from 37.6% to 8.5% year-on-year[34]

债券研究 证券研究报 告 【债券周报】 通胀边际抬升，聚焦会议定调 ——每周高频跟踪 20251206 （1）动力煤：煤价跌幅扩大。内陆省份电厂日耗同比仍显疲弱，终端企业 采购以长协煤兑现为主，对高价市场煤接受偏低，沿海电厂日耗小幅下降。 （2）螺纹钢：螺纹钢价格涨幅扩大。主要钢材品种去库节奏继续加快，但 建材、螺纹表观需求走弱也加速，说明供给收缩力度相对更大。 （3）沥青：开工率继续处于同期低位。沥青装置开工率环比+0.1pct 至 27.9%，同比-1.0%。赶工需求逐步减少，出货量也处于往年同期低位。 2、地产：（1）新房成交成交放缓。11 月 28 日-12 月 4 日，30 城新房成交面 积 211.8 万平方米，环比-0.6%，同比-36%，降幅继续扩大，月初新房销售动 能有所回落。（2）二手房成交继续走弱。二手房成交面积环比-2.7%，同比- 39.6%，环比跌幅扩大，主因高基数影响。 消费相关：11 月乘用车零售同比-7% 1、汽车：11 月 1-30 日，全国乘用车市场零售 226.3 万辆，同比去年同期下 降 7%，较上月增长 1%。 2、原油：价格继续上涨。美联储降息预期强化、美元指数走 ...

Economic Overview - Dongguan's economy showed overall stability in the first ten months of 2025, with a focus on high-quality development and the implementation of various policy measures [2] Industrial Production - The industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 4.2% year-on-year. Key industries such as electronic information manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, and chemical manufacturing saw increases of 7.5%, 8.5%, and 10.8% respectively [3] - New momentum industries performed well, with advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing added value growing by 6.4% and 7.9% respectively. High-tech product output also saw significant growth, with integrated circuits, smartwatches, servers, and sensors increasing by 78.4%, 34.2%, 28.8%, and 24.6% respectively [3] Foreign Trade - The total foreign trade import and export volume reached 12,982.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, with imports at 5,056.2 billion yuan (up 25.4%) and exports at 7,926.2 billion yuan (up 8.7%). In October, the total foreign trade volume grew by 17.3% year-on-year [4] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of social consumer goods amounted to 3,597.63 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.6%. Notable growth was seen in dining revenue (up 2.4%) and retail of goods (up 1.4%). Certain essential and upgraded goods experienced strong sales, with retail sales of staple food, hardware, and sports entertainment goods increasing by 50.0%, 26.6%, and 26.1% respectively [5] - Online consumption also surged, with retail sales through public networks increasing by 19.6% year-on-year [5] Fixed Asset Investment - Total fixed asset investment decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous nine months. Excluding real estate development investment, fixed asset investment grew by 16.9% [6][7] - Investment in advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing saw significant increases of 51.2% and 66.0% respectively, while real estate development investment fell by 49.2% [7] Financial Market - By the end of October, the balance of deposits in financial institutions reached 28,929.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while the balance of loans was 19,917.25 billion yuan, up 3.4% [8] Consumer Price Index - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 1.0% year-on-year, with six categories of goods and services experiencing price declines. Notably, transportation and communication prices fell by 3.1%, while medical care prices rose by 1.5% [9]

Core Insights - The fall of Red Army City has significant implications for Ukraine's coal and steel industries, which are crucial for the country's economic security [1][3] - The loss of control over this region's mineral resources poses severe risks to Ukraine's industrial system, potentially leading to a collapse of its industrial production [3][4] Industry Impact - The metallurgical steel industry is a critical sector during wartime, as all weaponry production relies on steel [3] - The loss of metallurgical coking coal from Red Army City will severely impact Ukraine's industrial capabilities, affecting both military and civilian production [3][4] - If Ukraine turns to importing raw materials, metallurgical companies will face financial pressures due to higher production costs and supply chain instability [4] European Dependency - Europe heavily relies on Ukrainian coal resources, and any disruption in supply will have a cascading effect on the steel and military manufacturing sectors [6] - The interconnectedness of the European steel industry means that a coal shortage could lead to production slowdowns or halts in downstream sectors like automotive and machinery [6] Historical Context - Ukraine has already faced significant industrial losses due to the war, including the closure of the Azovstal steel plant and the impact of Russian control over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant [8] - The current coal resource shortage exacerbates the already strained energy supply situation in Europe, posing unprecedented challenges for the industrial sector [8] EU Aid and Confidence - The fall of Red Army City has shaken the EU's confidence in its support for Ukraine, leading to internal divisions regarding the effectiveness of ongoing aid [10] - Concerns are growing within the EU about the sustainability of aid efforts, especially if Ukraine cannot maintain control over key industrial cities [10] Military Developments - Russian military advances threaten additional energy industrial cities, further destabilizing Ukraine's industrial base [12] - The ongoing military actions indicate a shift in battlefield dominance towards Russian forces, complicating Ukraine's industrial recovery efforts [12]

Economic Overview - The A-share market has shown a decline in sectors such as energy metals, power equipment, and electronics, while defensive sectors like agriculture, home appliances, and banking have performed relatively better [1] - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 1.7% year-on-year from January to October, with a notable decline in real estate investment by 14.7% [2] - Industrial production has slowed down, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1% for the first ten months, and a drop to 4.9% in October compared to the previous month [2] Financial Data - In October, new RMB loans amounted to 220 billion, a decrease of 280 billion compared to the same month last year, while the social financing scale increased by 816.1 billion, down by 595.9 billion year-on-year [3] - M2 growth has slowed to 8.2%, down from 8.4%, and M1 growth has decreased to 6.2%, reflecting a cautious approach from enterprises towards investment [3] Market Sentiment - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals have raised concerns about persistent inflation, leading to a decrease in expectations for interest rate cuts in December [4] - The domestic economic data has shown a downward trend, suggesting that the stock index may enter a phase of adjustment in the short term [4]

Report Information - Report Date: November 22, 2025 [1] - Report Title: High - frequency Economic Weekly Report (2025.11.16 - 2025.11.22) [2] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Yi Qiang, Wang Zheyi [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The economic situation shows mixed trends. Industrial production is weak, while personnel flow continues to rise, and freight prices increase slightly. Consumption and some segments of the real - estate market show different trends, and export - related indicators also have their own characteristics. [3] Summary by Catalog 1. Big - class Assets - This week, bond indices generally rose, with the ChinaBond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank bond index rising the most by 0.7%. Stock indices and commodities generally fell, with the ChiNext Index falling the most by 6.15%, and the Nanhua Precious Metals Index dropping by 4.07%. Most foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest decline of 1.19%, while the US dollar appreciated by 0.14% against the RMB. [3] 2. Industrial Production - Production performance is weak. From the upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27%, the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate dropped by 4.20 pcts to 24.80%, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62 pcts to 82.17%, while the crude steel output increased by 6.00%. In the real - estate chain, the rebar operating rate rose by 1.31 pcts to 43.29%, the float glass operating rate decreased by 0.34 pcts to 74.96%, and the mill operating rate dropped by 0.39 pcts to 33.29%. In the consumer goods chain, the polyester filament operating rate increased by 0.10 pcts to 91.33%, the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.89 pcts to 74.29%, and the methanol operating rate dropped by 0.17 pcts to 83.77%. In the automotive chain, the automotive semi - steel tire operating rate decreased by 2.61 pcts to 71.07%, and the automotive full - steel tire operating rate decreased by 3.19 pcts to 61.31%. [3] 3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow continued to rise, and freight prices increased slightly. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 6.45% week - on - week. The 7DMA of domestic flight operations increased by 1.51%, and the 7DMA of international flight operations increased by 0.84%. Beijing's subway passenger volume decreased, while those of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou increased. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index increased by 0.02% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period last year. [3] 4. Consumption - Automobile sales growth declined year - on - year, and price performance decreased. The previous period's automobile wholesale decreased by 5.00% year - on - year, and retail sales decreased by 9.00% year - on - year. Both the 4WMA of wholesale and retail year - on - year growth rates declined. The weekly movie box office decreased by 22%, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 22%. Agricultural product prices decreased, with pork prices dropping by 0.83% week - on - week and vegetable prices falling by 6.08% week - on - week. [3] 5. Investment - Construction performance was good, and the commercial housing market had a seasonal uptick. The weekly cement inventory ratio increased by 0.1 pcts, the cement price index increased by 0.43%, and the cement shipping rate remained the same as last week. The rebar inventory decreased by 3.8% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 1.3 pcts, and the rebar apparent demand increased by 6.7% week - on - week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction was good. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 24.2% week - on - week. By city - tier, the transaction area in first - tier cities decreased, while those in second - and third - tier cities increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities decreased by 0.1%, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.2% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land premium rate decreased week - on - week. [3] 6. Export - Port throughput decreased, and most shipping indices increased. The weekly port cargo throughput decreased by 1.1%, and the container throughput decreased by 5.4%. The BDI index increased by 7.06% week - on - week, the domestic SCFI index decreased by 3.98%, and the CCFI index increased by 2.63%. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the economic situation from multiple aspects, indicating that industrial production is weak, personnel flow is increasing, consumption shows a downward trend, investment has seasonal recoveries, and exports have a decline in port throughput but an increase in most shipping indices. Meanwhile, bond indices generally rise, while stock indices and commodities generally fall, and most foreign currencies decline [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Large - scale Assets - This week, bond indices generally rose, stock indices and commodities generally fell, and most foreign currencies declined. Among them, the ChinaBond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index rose the most, with a gain of 0.07%. The ChiNext Index fell the most, with a weekly decline of 6.15%. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index fell the most among commodities, with a decline of 4.07%. The Japanese yen had the largest decline against the RMB, with a weekly decline of 1.19%, while the US dollar appreciated against the RMB, with a weekly gain of 0.14% [3][8]. 3.2. Industrial Production - Production performance was weak. Upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 4.20 pcts to 24.80%, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62 pcts to 82.17%, and the crude steel output increased by 6.00% week - on - week. In the real estate chain, the rebar operating rate increased by 1.31 pcts to 43.29%, the float glass operating rate decreased by 0.34 pcts to 74.96%, and the mill operating rate decreased by 0.39 pcts to 33.29%. In the general consumer goods chain, the operating rate of polyester filament increased by 0.10 pcts to 91.33%, the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.89 pcts to 74.29%, and the methanol operating rate decreased by 0.17 pcts to 83.77%. In the automotive chain, the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires decreased by 2.61 pcts to 71.07%, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires decreased by 3.19 pcts to 61.31% [3][11]. 3.3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow continued to increase, and freight prices increased slightly. In terms of personnel flow, the 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 6.45% week - on - week. The 7DMA of domestic flight operation numbers increased by 1.51% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of international flight operation numbers increased by 0.84% week - on - week. The subway passenger volume in Beijing decreased, while that in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou increased. In terms of freight volume, the 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index increased by 0.02% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period last year [3]. 3.4. Consumption - Automobile sales growth declined year - on - year, and price performance declined. The previous period's automobile wholesale decreased by 5.00% year - on - year, and retail decreased by 9.00% year - on - year. Both the 4WMA of wholesale year - on - year growth and the 4WMA of retail year - on - year growth declined. This period's movie box office decreased by 22% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 22% week - on - week. Agricultural product prices declined, with pork prices decreasing by 0.83% week - on - week and vegetable prices decreasing by 6.08% week - on - week [3]. 3.5. Investment - Construction performance was good, and the commercial housing market had a seasonal upswing. This period's cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 0.1 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 0.43% week - on - week, and the cement shipment rate was flat compared to last week. Rebar inventory decreased by 3.8% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 1.3 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 6.7% week - on - week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction was good. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 24.2% week - on - week. By city tier, the commercial housing transaction area in first - tier cities decreased, while that in second - tier and third - tier cities increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities decreased by 0.1% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.2% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 large and medium - sized cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [3]. 3.6. Export - Port throughput decreased, and most shipping indices increased. This period's port cargo throughput decreased by 1.1% week - on - week, and container throughput decreased by 5.4% week - on - week. The BDI index increased by 7.06% week - on - week, and the domestic SCFI index decreased by 3.98% week - on - week, while the CCFI index increased by 2.63% week - on - week [3].