Industrial Sector - Daily average pig iron production increased, indicating a recovery in steel and construction material demand[2] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate improved, while the operating rate for major chemical products mostly declined[2] - Polyester operating rate increased, and weaving industry continued to rebound[2] Real Estate Sector - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 15.0% year-on-year, with a drop of 11.0 percentage points compared to the previous week[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 1.85% compared to the previous value[2] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 16% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed compared to February[2] - Major home appliance retail sales dropped by 26.3% year-on-year, showing improvement from previous values[2] - Domestic flight operations increased by 4.2% year-on-year, while the Baidu migration index grew by 6.1%[2] External Demand - Port cargo throughput decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, but improved by 5.2 percentage points from the previous value[2] - Exports from South Korea increased by 40.4% year-on-year, with an 11.4 percentage point increase compared to February[2] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4, up by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[2] Price Trends - The industrial product price index showed a slight increase, with the non-ferrous metal index rising by 2.1%[2] - Agricultural product wholesale price index fell by 1.3% week-on-week, indicating seasonal decline[2]

Industrial Production - Steel production continues to recover, with major varieties showing improved apparent demand[1] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate increased, while some chemical products' operating rates improved month-on-month[1] - The operating rate of polyester in the textile industry increased, and the operating rate of automotive tires continued to recover[1] Real Estate Market - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, with a slight recovery compared to earlier months[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 1.50% compared to the previous value[1] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of passenger cars in March (1-15) were 561,000 units, down 21% year-on-year[1] - Major home appliance retail sales decreased by 31.1% year-on-year, a drop of 19.2 percentage points from the previous value[1] - Domestic flight operations increased by 5.9% year-on-year, while the Baidu migration index rose by 19%[1] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with container throughput up by 11.1%[1] - The export container freight index rose by 4.5% month-on-month[1] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Price Index fell by 0.9%, while the Nanhua Petrochemical Index rose by 3.1%[1] - The price of rebar futures decreased by 0.6%, while the spot price fell by 0.2%[1] - The agricultural product wholesale price index dropped by 0.9%[1]

Economic Overview - In January-February 2026, the industrial value added of large-scale enterprises increased by 6.3% year-on-year, improving by 1.1 percentage points from December 2025, and exceeding the market expectation of 5.2%[3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 2.8% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.9 percentage points from December 2025, and surpassing the consensus forecast of 2.4%[3] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) rose by 1.8% year-on-year, a significant improvement from the -3.8% recorded in the previous year, and better than the expected -2.7%[3] Industrial Production - The industrial production growth rate reached its highest level since October 2025, supported by a 21.8% year-on-year increase in exports in USD terms, significantly higher than the 5.5% growth for the entire year of 2025[7] - Among the three major sectors, mining increased by 6.1%, manufacturing by 6.6%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 4.7%, all showing improvements from December 2025[12] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of goods increased by 2.5%, while catering revenue grew by 4.8%, both showing significant acceleration from December 2025[16] - The sales of non-automotive consumer goods rose by 3.7%, up by 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a rebound in consumer spending due to the extended Spring Festival holiday[16] Fixed Asset Investment - Manufacturing investment grew by 3.1% year-on-year, a notable increase from 0.6% in the previous year, with significant contributions from sectors like transportation equipment manufacturing, which surged by 31.1%[28] - Infrastructure investment saw a substantial rebound, increasing by 11.4% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 1.5% in the previous year[28] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment fell by 11.1% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than the 17.2% drop recorded in the previous year, indicating a narrowing of the downturn[36] - New housing sales area decreased by 13.5% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 20.2%, reflecting a continued struggle in the real estate market[37]

Economic Overview - The macroeconomic environment in early 2026 remains stable, with a recovery in the price index and a high growth rate in industrial added value[3] - The manufacturing PMI in February is at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight decline in manufacturing activity[5] - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.3% year-on-year in February, while the producer price index (PPI) fell by 0.9%[10] Trade and Investment - Total import and export value for January-February 2026 reached $1,099.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21%[16] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 52,721 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.8%[32] - Real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing compared to the previous year[32] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 86,079 billion yuan in January-February, growing by 2.8% year-on-year, indicating weak consumer demand[29] - The sales area of new commercial housing fell by 13.5% year-on-year, reflecting a continued downturn in the real estate market[33] Monetary Policy and Credit - The M2 money supply increased by 9% year-on-year, while the M1 money supply grew by 5.9%, indicating a slight recovery in monetary activity[27] - Social financing scale stock was 451.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%[24] Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment in 2026 is expected to be better than in 2025, with potential for recovery in the real estate market and overall economic growth[44] - Continued implementation of proactive macro policies is necessary to enhance effective demand and support economic recovery[3]

Economic Growth Data - In the first two months of 2026, China's industrial production value increased by 6.3% year-on-year, while the service production index grew by 5.2%[2] - Industrial production growth accelerated by 1.1 percentage points compared to December 2025, and the service sector's growth improved by 0.2 percentage points[2] - Social retail sales rose by 2.8% year-on-year, with fixed asset investment increasing by 1.8%, both showing significant improvements from December 2025 by 1.9 and 5.6 percentage points respectively[2] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing value added surged by 13.1%, outpacing overall industrial growth by 6.8 percentage points[2] - Export delivery value also rebounded, growing by 6.3% year-on-year, matching the industrial production growth rate and improving by 3.1 percentage points from December 2025[2] - The service sector saw notable growth in information transmission, software, and IT services (10.1%), finance (7.0%), and transportation (6.3%) during the same period[2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment showed a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with infrastructure and manufacturing investments rising by 9.8% and 3.1% respectively[2] - Real estate investment declined by 11.1%, but this was a smaller drop compared to the previous year's overall decline by 6.1 percentage points[2] - Equipment and tool purchases increased by 11.5%, indicating strong policy support for investment recovery[2] Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include the effectiveness of growth stabilization policies falling short of expectations, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalation of geopolitical conflicts[8]

Industrial Sector - Industrial production continues to recover, particularly in the textile and automotive sectors, with significant increases in operating rates[2] - Steel and building materials production has increased, with apparent demand recovering[2] - The operating rate for automotive tires has improved, with the full steel tire operating rate exceeding last year's levels[2] Real Estate Sector - New home sales in 30 major cities increased by 0.9% year-on-year, with a growth rate improvement of 24.2 percentage points compared to the previous week[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index decreased by 1.17% compared to the previous value[2] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of passenger cars in February fell by 25.4% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 18.9% for the year[2] - Major home appliance retail sales dropped by 31.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 19.2 percentage points from the previous value[2] - Domestic flight operations increased by 11.3% year-on-year, although the growth rate has slowed by 8.6 percentage points compared to the previous week[2] External Demand - Export container freight rates have risen, with the Shanghai and Ningbo export container freight rates increasing by 14.9% and 10.3%, respectively[2] - The port cargo throughput volume decreased by 6.2% year-on-year, while container throughput increased by 3.7%[2] Price Trends - The industrial product price index rose by 6.3%, with the black raw materials index increasing by 3.6%[2] - The futures price of rebar increased by 1.7%, while the spot price rose by 1.2%[2] - The agricultural product wholesale price index fell by 1.0% week-on-week, indicating seasonal declines[2]

Report Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The industrial production is showing signs of recovery, with some indicators rising and others falling. The flow of people has declined, while freight prices have increased slightly. The movie market has weakened, and prices continue to decline. Construction shows seasonal improvement, and the real estate market has rebounded. Container throughput has increased slightly, and shipping indices have recovered. The performance of major asset classes is mixed [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Major Asset Classes - This week, bond indices, stock indices, and commodities showed mixed performance, and foreign currencies, except for the US dollar, generally declined. Among bond indices, the AA+, AA, and AA- corporate bond indices of ChinaBond rose the most, with a gain of 0.04%, while the 10-year ChinaBond Treasury bond index fell the most, with a decline of 0.15%. Among stock indices, the ChiNext index rose the most, with a weekly gain of 2.51%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index fell the most, with a decline of 2.88%. Among commodities, the Nanhua Energy and Chemicals Index rose the most, with a gain of 9.76%, and the Nanhua Precious Metals Index fell the most, with a decline of 1.52%. Foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest decline of 1.17%, and the US dollar appreciated against the RMB, with a weekly gain of 0.07% [2][6]. 2. Industrial Production - Production has recovered. In the upstream, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 0.30 pcts week-on-week to 23.00%, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.67 pcts week-on-week to 78.36%, and the crude steel output decreased by 0.10% week-on-week. In the real estate chain, the rebar operating rate increased by 2.62 pcts week-on-week to 38.38%, the float glass operating rate decreased by 0.10 pcts to 71.42%, and the mill operation rate decreased by 1.94 pcts week-on-week to 14.62%. In the consumer goods chain, the polyester filament operating rate increased by 4.3 pcts week-on-week to 88.79%, the PTA operating rate increased by 0.64 pcts week-on-week to 80.33%, and the methanol operating rate decreased by 1.22 pcts week-on-week to 85.61%. In the automotive chain, the operating rate of automobile semi-steel tires increased by 3.68 pcts week-on-week to 77.71%, and the operating rate of automobile all-steel tires increased by 4.32 pcts week-on-week to 70.22% [2][9]. 3. People and Freight Flow - The flow of people has declined, and freight prices have increased slightly. The 7DMA of the national migration scale index decreased by 14.30% week-on-week, the 7DMA of the number of domestic flights decreased by 7.34% week-on-week, and the 7DMA of the number of international flights decreased by 4.63% week-on-week. The subway passenger volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou increased week-on-week, while that in Beijing decreased. The 4WMA of the road logistics freight rate index increased by 0.03% week-on-week, and the total volume was slightly higher than the same period last year [2][28]. 4. Consumption - The movie market has weakened, and prices continue to decline. The previous period's automobile wholesale and retail sales decreased month-on-month, but the 4WMA of the year-on-year growth rate of wholesale and retail sales increased. This period's movie box office decreased by 64.00% week-on-week, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 63.00% week-on-week. Agricultural product prices decreased slightly, with pork prices decreasing by 4.99% week-on-week and vegetable prices decreasing by 5.18% week-on-week [2][44]. 5. Investment - Construction shows seasonal improvement, and the real estate market has rebounded. This period's cement inventory ratio decreased by 0.3% week-on-week, the cement price index decreased by 0.38% week-on-week, and the cement shipping rate increased by 5.2% week-on-week. The rebar inventory increased by 2.6% week-on-week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 1.73% week-on-week, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 80.0% week-on-week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction shows seasonal improvement. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium-sized cities increased by 4.7% week-on-week. By city tier, the commercial housing transaction areas in first- and third-tier cities increased, while that in second-tier cities decreased. The 7DMA of the second-hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 4.31% week-on-week, and the national second-hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.8% week-on-week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week-on-week [2][54]. 6. Exports - Container throughput has increased slightly, and shipping indices have recovered. This period's port cargo throughput decreased by 0.42% week-on-week, and container throughput increased by 1.4% week-on-week. The BDI index increased by 0.90% week-on-week, the domestic SCFI index increased by 14.85% week-on-week, and the CCFI index increased by 1.70% week-on-week [2][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the economic situation from multiple aspects during the period of 2026.03.08 - 2026.03.14, indicating that industrial production is recovering, personnel flow is decreasing, freight prices are slightly rising, the film market is weakening, prices are continuing to decline, construction is seasonally warming up, the real - estate market is recovering, exports show a slight increase, and the performance of major asset classes is mixed [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Large - scale Assets - This week, bond indices showed mixed performance, stock indices showed mixed performance, commodities showed mixed performance, and foreign currencies, except the US dollar, generally declined. Among bond indices, the AA +, AA, and AA - indices of ChinaBond corporate bonds rose the most, with a gain of 0.04%, while the 10 - year ChinaBond Treasury bond index fell the most, with a decline of 0.15%. Among stock indices, the ChiNext index rose the most, with a weekly gain of 2.51%, and the Sci - tech Innovation 50 index fell the most, with a decline of 2.88%. Among commodities, the Nanhua Energy and Chemicals Index rose the most, with a gain of 9.76%, and the Nanhua Precious Metals Index fell the most, with a decline of 1.52%. Foreign currencies against the RMB generally fell, with the Japanese yen having the largest decline of 1.17%, and the US dollar appreciated against the RMB, with a weekly gain of 0.07% [4][9]. 3.2. Industrial Production - Production has recovered. In the upstream, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 0.30 pcts week - on - week to 23.00%, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.67 pcts week - on - week to 78.36%, and the crude steel output decreased by 0.10% week - on - week. In the real - estate chain, the operating rate of rebar increased by 2.62 pcts week - on - week to 38.38%, the operating rate of float glass decreased by 0.10 pcts week - on - week to 71.42%, and the mill operation rate decreased by 1.94 pcts week - on - week to 14.62%. In the general consumer goods chain, the operating rate of polyester filament increased by 4.3 pcts week - on - week to 88.79%, the PTA operating rate increased by 0.64 pcts week - on - week to 80.33%, and the methanol operating rate decreased by 1.22 pcts week - on - week to 85.61%. In the automobile chain, the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires increased by 3.68 pcts week - on - week to 77.71%, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires increased by 4.32 pcts week - on - week to 70.22% [4][12]. 3.3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow has decreased, and freight prices have risen slightly. In terms of personnel flow, the 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index decreased by 14.30% week - on - week, the 7DMA of the number of domestic flights decreased by 7.34% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of international flights decreased by 4.63% week - on - week. The subway passenger volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou increased week - on - week, while that in Beijing decreased. In terms of freight flow, the 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index increased by 0.03% week - on - week, and the total volume was slightly higher than the same period last year [4][32]. 3.4. Consumption - The film market has weakened, and price performance has continued to decline. In the previous period, automobile wholesale and retail sales decreased month - on - month, and the 4WMA of the year - on - year growth rate of wholesale and retail sales increased. This period, the weekly box office of movies decreased by 64.00% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of movie - goers decreased by 63.00% week - on - week. Agricultural product prices decreased slightly, with the pork price decreasing by 4.99% week - on - week and the vegetable price decreasing by 5.18% week - on - week [4][48]. 3.5. Investment - Construction shows seasonal warming, and the real - estate market has recovered. This period, the cement inventory - to - capacity ratio decreased by 0.3% week - on - week, the cement price index decreased by 0.38% week - on - week, and the cement shipment rate increased by 5.2% week - on - week. The rebar inventory increased by 2.6% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 1.73% week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 80.0% week - on - week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction shows seasonal warming. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 4.7% week - on - week. By city - tier, the commercial housing transaction areas in first - and third - tier cities increased, while that in second - tier cities decreased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 4.31% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.8% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [4][58]. 3.6. Exports - Container throughput has increased slightly, and shipping indices have recovered. This period, the port cargo throughput decreased by 0.42% week - on - week, and the container throughput increased by 1.4% week - on - week. The BDI index increased by 0.90% week - on - week, the domestic SCFI index increased by 14.85% week - on - week, and the CCFI index increased by 1.70% week - on - week [4][74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth week of February, the post - Spring Festival resumption of work was not weak. The construction site resumption rate and labor attendance rate were higher than those in the same lunar period of 2025, likely due to the approaching end - of - quarter month after the Spring Festival [5][30]. - In terms of inflation, food prices declined after the Spring Festival. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of vegetable basket products decreased by 1.72% and 1.96% respectively [5][10]. - Regarding exports, the freight volume weakened significantly during the holiday week, but the year - on - year figures for January - February were high, and export readings were expected to be good [5][11]. - For investment, the downstream construction site resumption rate was 1 - 2 percentage points higher than the same lunar period. It was expected that the resumption of work would accelerate further by early March, while the demand for investment products such as cement and rebar had not significantly recovered, mainly characterized by accelerated inventory accumulation [5][30]. - In the real estate sector, the post - holiday transactions of new and second - hand houses accelerated. Attention should be paid to the boosting effect of Shanghai's "Seven Measures" on the "Little Spring" market in March [5][30]. - For the bond market, the short - term repair slope of investment resumption and transaction rhythm needed to be closely monitored. The resumption of work was expected to accelerate further by early March, and the "Seven Measures" might lead to a concentrated release of second - hand housing transaction demand. The policy expectations of the Two Sessions were likely to be favorable to the bond market [5][31]. 3. Summary according to the Directory (1) Inflation - related: Food prices fell after the Spring Festival - The average wholesale price of pork in the country decreased by 1.39% compared with the week before the holiday, and the price of vegetables decreased by 2.9% compared with before the holiday. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of vegetable basket products decreased by 1.72% and 1.96% respectively [10]. (2) Import and export - related: Export volume in February decreased slightly month - on - month but remained high year - on - year - The CCFI index decreased by 4.0% month - on - month, while the SCFI index increased by 6.5%. During the Spring Festival holiday week from February 16th to 20th, the port container throughput and cargo throughput decreased by 13.6% and 21.8% respectively month - on - month, and 5.5% and 23.6% respectively year - on - year. The monthly average in February increased by 19.3% and 15.1% respectively year - on - year [11]. - The BDI index increased by 2.9% month - on - month, and the CDFI index increased by about 7.5% compared with before the holiday [11]. (3) Industry - related: Industrial production resumed work slightly slowly - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 1.9% week - on - week. Industrial demand recovered, downstream replenishment willingness increased, and supply was tight, pushing up coal prices [16]. - The spot price of rebar remained stable, and the social inventory of rebar increased by 14.7% week - on - week, with the social inventory of major steel products increasing by 26.3% [16]. - The asphalt plant operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.4% compared with the week before the holiday, and the resumption of work was slow after the holiday [2][16]. - The average price of copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals market increased by 0.6% week - on - week. The glass futures price decreased compared with before the holiday, and inventory accumulation pressure still existed [18]. (4) Investment - related: Second - hand housing transactions increased after the Spring Festival - The cement price index decreased by 0.4% compared with before the holiday. As of February 25th, the national construction site resumption rate was 8.9%, 1.5 percentage points higher than the same lunar period, and the labor attendance rate was 15.5%, 3.7 percentage points higher than the same lunar period [20]. - The transaction area of new houses in 30 cities increased by 25.8% week - on - week. As of February 27th, the 7 - day rolling sum of new house transaction area in 30 cities was 769,600 square meters, a year - on - year increase of 48.1% [23]. - The transaction area of second - hand houses in 17 cities increased by 107.4% week - on - week. As of February 27th, the 7 - day rolling sum of second - hand housing transactions was 61,300 square meters, a year - on - year increase of 31.5% [23]. (5) Consumption: Post - holiday travel enthusiasm continued to rise, and international oil prices rose slightly - Affected by the resumption of work, the subway passenger volume in 29 cities increased by 24.8% week - on - week. As of February 27th, the travel volume increased by 28.9% year - on - year according to the Baidu Migration Index [4][25]. - As of February 27th, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.0% and 0.8% respectively compared with last Friday, and the upward trend continued [4][29].

Core Insights - Brazil's industrial production is projected to grow by 0.6% in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of expansion, although at a significantly slower pace compared to previous years [1] - The industrial production growth was 3.1% in 2024 and 0.1% in 2023, indicating a trend of declining growth rates [1] Industry Performance - In 2025, industrial production faced downward pressure due to rising interest rates, with a notable month-on-month decline of 1.2% in December, the weakest performance since July 2024 [1] - Among the four quarters of 2025, the industrial sector showed resilience despite economic challenges, with 15 out of 25 industrial categories experiencing expansion [1] - The production of consumer goods and intermediate goods grew by 2.5% and 1.5% respectively, indicating sustained growth in certain areas, while capital goods and durable consumer goods contracted [1] - Significant growth was observed in the extraction and food production sectors, highlighting specific areas of strength within the industrial landscape [1] Economic Context - The Brazilian Central Bank has been raising the benchmark interest rate since September 2024, maintaining high rates into 2025, which has suppressed investment and credit demand, contributing to the downward pressure on industrial production [1] - Despite the complex economic conditions, the annual data reflects that the industrial sector has managed to maintain expansion [1]