Economic Growth - The main economic indicators in Gansu Province have shown steady growth in the first seven months of the year, with overall economic operation remaining stable [1][2] - The industrial production has increased significantly, with the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size growing by 9.5% year-on-year [1] Industrial Performance - The mining industry saw a value increase of 4.1%, while the manufacturing sector grew by 12.2%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry increased by 10.2% [1] - Out of 37 major industry categories, 25 reported growth in production activities [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in the province grew by 0.8% year-on-year, with a notable increase of 4.4% when excluding real estate development investments [1] - Infrastructure investment rose by 7.4%, and manufacturing investment increased by 10.0%, while real estate development investment declined by 14.2% [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 2500.8 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [2] - The "old for new" policy has positively impacted retail sales in categories such as home appliances (54.3% growth), communication equipment (37.0% growth), and furniture (20.8% growth) [2] Foreign Trade - The total import and export value reached 394.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.4% [2] - Exports grew by 33.2% to 95.5 billion yuan, while imports increased by 21.9% to 299.1 billion yuan [2] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative accounted for 74.4% of total trade, with a growth of 21.0% [2] Fiscal and Financial Stability - The general public budget revenue was 658.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, while expenditures increased by 5.3% to 2848.6 billion yuan [2] - By the end of July, the balance of deposits in financial institutions reached 30383.8 billion yuan, growing by 8.1%, and the loan balance was 29981.5 billion yuan, up by 4.3% [2]

Supply and Demand - Construction starts remain at seasonal low levels, with asphalt plant operating rates at 32.9%, down 12.9% year-on-year, and cement dispatch rates at 40.1%, down 4.4% year-on-year[14] - Industrial production shows a mixed picture, with PX operating rates at 82.4%, down 7.7% year-on-year, while automotive steel tire operating rates have decreased[24] - Some construction demand has turned positive year-on-year, with rebar apparent demand showing a positive change, primarily due to a low base in 2024[29] Prices - International commodity prices are fluctuating, with crude oil prices declining and gold prices showing a slight increase[39] - Domestic industrial prices are generally weak, with the Nanhua Composite Index declining, while coal prices have continued to rise[40] - Agricultural product prices have shown an upward trend, while pork prices have been declining[56] Real Estate - New housing transactions remain at historical lows, with a 18% decrease in average transaction area in 30 major cities compared to the previous two weeks, and a year-on-year decline of 29% compared to 2023[58] - Second-hand housing transactions are also weak, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing year-on-year changes of -8%, +4%, and +2% respectively[62] Exports - Exports from August 1 to 17 are estimated to have increased by approximately 7% to 9% year-on-year, with models indicating a 7% increase and container ship loading data suggesting a 9% increase[65] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen fluctuations in funding rates, with the R007 at 1.45% and DR007 at 1.51% as of August 1[71] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 21,022 billion yuan through reverse repos in recent weeks[72] Risk Warning - There are risks associated with unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and potential changes in policy strength[76]

Economic Overview - In July, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.7% year-on-year, a slowdown of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year in July, marking a new low for the year, and down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[18] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 1.6% year-on-year from January to July, continuing a decline for four consecutive months[24] Industrial Production - The growth rate of industrial added value for the first seven months was 6.3% year-on-year[8] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing maintained high growth rates, with increases of 9.3% and 8.4% respectively in July[8] - Export delivery value growth slowed to 0.8% in July, down 3.2 percentage points from the previous month[8] Consumer Market - The retail sales of goods in July grew by 4.0%, while catering services increased by only 1.1%[18] - The "old-for-new" policy pause in some regions led to a significant drop in related goods sales growth[18] - Sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment grew by 28.7%, down from 32.4% in the previous month[18] Fixed Asset Investment - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, a slowdown of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month[24] - Infrastructure investment growth was 7.3%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[26] - Private investment growth fell to -6.3% in July, indicating a significant decline in private sector confidence[26] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year from January to July, with the decline widening by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[33] - New housing construction area fell by 19.4%, while the sales area of new commercial housing dropped by 4.0%[34] - The price index for new residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month in July[34]

Group 1: Industrial Production - China's industrial production remains stable, with daily average pig iron output and steel plate production increasing week-on-week[1] - The operating rate of oil asphalt and some chemical products has improved, while cement clinker capacity utilization has slightly adjusted[1] - Polyester weaving and automotive tire production rates have rebounded, indicating a recovery in downstream industries[1] Group 2: Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 8.9% year-on-year, but the decline rate improved by 6.2 percentage points compared to the previous week[1] - Year-to-date, new home sales have dropped by 14.2%, a 5.0 percentage point improvement from the previous month[1] - The index for second-hand home listing prices fell by 0.42% week-on-week as of August 4[1] Group 3: Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue averaged 206.74 million yuan per day, showing a year-on-year increase of 46.2%[1] - Domestic flight operations increased by 1.6% year-on-year, with the Baidu migration index rising by 17.7%[1] - Retail sales of major home appliances grew by 10.5% year-on-year as of August 1[1] Group 4: External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 6.8% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 4.1%[1] - South Korea's export value decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, a decline of 10.2 percentage points from July[1] - The Chinese export container freight index fell by 0.6% week-on-week, indicating a downward adjustment in shipping rates[1] Group 5: Price Trends - The South China industrial product index rose by 0.4%, while the black raw material index remained stable[1] - Rebar futures prices dropped by 0.8%, and spot prices fell by 0.3%[1] - Coking coal futures prices increased by 0.2%, but spot prices in Shanxi decreased by 0.6%[1]

Economic Performance - Shenzhen's GDP for the first half of 2025 reached CNY 18,322.26 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%[3] - The GDP growth rate in Shenzhen exceeded that of Guangdong Province by 0.9 percentage points, with Guangdong's GDP growing by 4.2%[3] Trade Dynamics - Total import and export volume in Shenzhen decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, totaling CNY 21,675.45 billion[8] - Exports fell by 7.0% to CNY 13,086.81 billion, while imports increased by 9.5% to CNY 8,588.64 billion[8] - Shenzhen's share of Guangdong's total trade rose from 46.31% in Q1 to 47.65% in H1 2025[10] Industrial Production - Industrial added value in Shenzhen grew by 4.3% year-on-year, slightly above Guangdong's 4.0%[15][16] - Key sectors such as general equipment manufacturing and electrical machinery saw growth rates of 17.1% and 8.2%, respectively[15] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Shenzhen declined by 10.9%, with real estate development investment down by 15.1%[18] - Industrial technology renovation investment surged by 47.1%[18] Consumer Market - Retail sales in Shenzhen reached CNY 4,948.68 billion, growing by 3.5% year-on-year[23] - The proportion of Shenzhen's retail sales to Guangdong's total increased from 20.54% at the beginning of 2025 to 21.58% in H1[24] Financial Sector - Financial institutions in Shenzhen reported a deposit balance of CNY 141,600.14 billion, up 5.7% year-on-year[31] - Loan balances increased by 3.5% to CNY 98,469.91 billion[31] Price Levels - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Shenzhen rose by 0.1% year-on-year, while Guangdong's CPI fell by 0.4%[37]

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains relatively stable, with the blast furnace operating rate maintaining at 0.7% year-on-year [2][5][8] - The chemical production chain shows a slight decline, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 2.6 percentage points to 6% and 0.9 percentage points to 1.3%, respectively [2][15] - The automotive sector's semi-steel tire operating rate is still below last year's level, increasing by 2.7 percentage points to -6.3% [2][15] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows a mixed performance, with the nationwide grinding operating rate down by 2.4 percentage points to 3.7% [2][27] - Cement shipment rates remain low, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% to -3% [2][27] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a recovery, increasing by 0.6 percentage points to 7.4% [2][35] Group 3: Real Estate Transactions - Real estate transactions are at a low point, with the average daily transaction area for new homes down by 19.1% year-on-year, despite a 13.1% increase [2][44] - First-tier cities continue to see a decline in transactions, down by 18.6% to 39.9% [2][44] - Third-tier cities show significant improvement, with transaction volumes increasing by 72.4% to 17% [2][44] Group 4: Transportation and Shipping - National railway and highway freight volumes have decreased, with year-on-year declines of 1.3% to 1.2% and 0.9% to 0.8%, respectively [2][54] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput have also shown a decline, down by 9.3% to 6.8% and 4.7% to 0.9%, respectively [2][54] - The overall intensity of human mobility remains high, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 2% to 12.6% [2][63] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with pork and vegetable prices rising by 0.1% and 0.8% respectively, while egg and fruit prices fell by 2.2% and 0.1% [3][85] - Industrial product prices have generally increased, with the South China industrial price index rising by 1.1% [3][93] - The energy and chemical price index increased by 1.3%, while the metal price index rose by 0.7% [3][93]

Economic Growth - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in Q2 2025, exceeding the expected 5.1% and up from 5.4% in Q1 2025[6] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth was 52.3% in Q2, an increase from Q1[7] - The cumulative GDP growth for the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, a 0.3 percentage point increase compared to the same period last year[7] Industrial Production - The industrial added value in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 5.6%[6] - Manufacturing sector growth was particularly strong, with a 7.4% increase in June[13] - High-tech industries led the growth with a 9.7% year-on-year increase[16] Consumer Spending - Social retail sales in June grew by 4.8%, below the expected 5.6% and down from 6.4% in May[6] - The contribution of key consumer categories, such as home appliances and communication equipment, remained strong with growth rates above 10%[23] - Restaurant revenue growth significantly declined to 0.9%, down 5 percentage points from the previous value[19] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, below the expected 3.7%[6] - Manufacturing investment growth fell to 5.1% in June, down from 7.8% previously[30] - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing weakness in the sector[35] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in June, unchanged from the previous value[6] - The average unemployment rate for the first half of 2025 was 5.2%, a slight decrease from Q1[38] - There was a divergence in unemployment rates between local and migrant workers, with local unemployment rising slightly to 5.1%[38]

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains relatively stable, with a blast furnace operating rate year-on-year at 0.7% [2][5][8] - Chemical production shows a slight decline, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 2.6 percentage points to 6% and 0.9 percentage points to 1.3%, respectively [2][15] - The automotive sector's semi-steel tire operating rate is still below last year's level, up by 2.7 percentage points to -6.3% [2][15] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows a mixed performance, with the national grinding operating rate down by 2.4 percentage points to 3.7% [2][27] - Cement shipment rates remain low, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% to -3% [2][27] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a recovery, up by 0.6 percentage points to 7.4% [2][35] Group 3: Real Estate Transactions - Real estate transactions are at a low point, with the average daily transaction area for new homes down by 19.1% year-on-year, despite a 13.1% increase [2][44] - First-tier cities continue to see a decline in transactions, down by 18.6% to 39.9% [2][44] - Third-tier cities show significant improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 72.4% to 17% [2][44] Group 4: Transportation and Shipping - National railway and highway freight volumes have decreased, with year-on-year declines of 1.3% to 1.2% and 0.9% to 0.8%, respectively [2][54] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput have also shown a decline, down by 9.3% to 6.8% and 4.7% to 0.9%, respectively [2][54] - The overall intensity of human mobility remains high, with a migration scale index down by 2% to 12.6% [2][63] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with pork and vegetable prices rising by 0.1% and 0.8%, while egg and fruit prices fell by 2.2% and 0.1% [3][85] - Industrial product prices have generally increased, with the South China industrial price index rising by 1.1% [3][93] - The energy and chemical price index increased by 1.3%, while the metal price index rose by 0.7% [3][93]

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains relatively stable, with the blast furnace operating rate maintaining at 0.7% year-on-year [2][5][8] - The chemical production chain shows a slight decline, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 2.6 percentage points to 6% and 0.9 percentage points to 1.3% respectively [2][15] - The automotive sector's semi-steel tire operating rate is still below last year's level, up by 2.7 percentage points to -6.3% [2][15] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows a mixed performance, with the nationwide grinding operating rate down by 2.4 percentage points to 3.7% [2][27] - Cement shipment rates remain low, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% to 3% [2][27] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a recovery, up by 0.6 percentage points to 7.4% [2][35] Group 3: Real Estate Transactions - Real estate transactions are at a low point, with the average daily transaction area for new homes down by 19.1% year-on-year, despite a 13.1% increase [2][44] - First-tier cities continue to see a decline in transactions, down by 18.6% to 39.9% [2][44] - Third-tier cities show significant improvement, with transaction volumes up by 72.4% to 17% [2][44] Group 4: Transportation and Shipping - National railway and highway freight volumes have decreased, with year-on-year declines of 1.3% to 1.2% and 0.9% to 0.8% respectively [2][54] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput have also shown a decline, down by 9.3% to 6.8% and 4.7% to 0.9% respectively [2][54] - The overall intensity of human mobility remains high, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 2% to 12.6% [2][63] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with pork and vegetable prices rising by 0.1% and 0.8% respectively, while egg and fruit prices fell by 2.2% and 0.1% [3][85] - Industrial product prices have generally increased, with the South China industrial price index rising by 1.1% [3][93] - The energy and chemical price index increased by 1.3%, while the metal price index rose by 0.7% [3][93]

Economic Growth - In Q2, China's actual GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, slightly down from 5.4% in Q1, but still above 5%, laying a solid foundation for the annual growth target of 5%[3] - The nominal GDP growth in Q2 was weak at approximately 3.9%, the weakest since Q1 2023, primarily due to persistent low inflation, with the GDP deflator index down by 1.2% year-on-year[3][8] Industrial Production - Industrial production showed strength, with June's industrial added value increasing by 6.8% year-on-year, just below the peak in March[8] - The industrial capacity utilization rate fell to 74% in Q2, indicating relative overcapacity, which may be a reason for the weak nominal growth[3][8] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth continued to decline, with June's year-on-year growth rate dropping to 2.8%, and construction spending turning negative[8] - Real estate investment saw a significant decline, with June's year-on-year growth rate at -12.9%, reflecting increased sales pressure and declining sales area and amount[8] Consumer Spending - Retail sales growth fell to 4.8% year-on-year in June, influenced by the earlier timing of the e-commerce "618" event and a decline in restaurant income[8] - Despite the slowdown, consumer spending is expected to have upward momentum, supported by stable employment and income growth, with disposable income and consumption expenditure both growing over 5% year-on-year in Q2[8] Structural Challenges - The report highlights three structural challenges that need policy focus: adjusting trade relations amid a changing global tariff environment, managing low inflation, and supporting the recovery of real estate prices[3][8] - Risks include increased volatility in the external economic environment and uncertainties in policy decisions regarding domestic demand stimulation[10]