Market Overview - The market experienced significant volatility with mixed index performances. The STAR 50 and ChiNext 50 indices rose by 6.47% and 2.50% respectively, while the Northbound 50 index fell by 3.11% [4][8] - In the H-share market, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 1.57% and 1.58% respectively. In overseas equity markets, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices declined by 0.31% and 0.50% respectively, while the DAX, CAC 40, and Nikkei 225 indices saw increases of 0.42%, 0.22%, and 0.69% respectively [4][8] Bond Market - The long-term rates in the domestic bond market increased, while the short- to medium-term rates decreased. The yields for the 30-year, 10-year, and 1-year government bonds were reported at 2.2170%, 1.8768%, and 1.3825% respectively, with the 30-year yield rising by 1.74 basis points [5][9] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures closed at $3,779.5 per ounce, up 2.54% for the week. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's spot price was reported at ¥852.9 per gram, increasing by 3.26% [6][10] - LME copper prices also saw an increase, with the spot price at $10,125.5 per ton, up 2.24%, and the 3-month copper futures at $10,193.0 per ton, up 2.10% [12] Fund Market Activity - The trading activity in the market was high, with an average daily trading volume of approximately ¥476.15 billion for ETFs. Notably, the A500 index saw significant net inflows, while the STAR 50 and CSI 300 indices also experienced net inflows [6][12] - As of September 28, there were 13,295 public funds in the market with a total net asset value of approximately ¥35.06 trillion. In the upcoming week, 10 new funds are set to be launched, including 1 enhanced index fund and 5 passive index funds [7][13]

Supply and Demand - Construction starts are showing marginal improvement, with recent weeks indicating a recovery in asphalt plant operating rates and cement dispatch rates, although they remain at historical lows[2] - Industrial production remains at a historically high level, with PX operating rates maintaining high levels while PTA rates are at historical lows[2] - Demand in construction remains weak, with negative year-on-year growth in construction demand and a decline in automobile sales[2] Commodity Prices - Gold prices have significantly increased, while oil prices are fluctuating weakly; copper and aluminum prices are also on the rise[3] - Domestic industrial prices are experiencing limited support from demand, leading to overall price fluctuations[3] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions have turned positive year-on-year, with a 23% decrease in average transaction area in major cities compared to the previous two weeks, but still showing improvement compared to 2023 and 2024[4] - Second-hand housing transactions are showing marginal improvement, with transaction volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen increasing year-on-year by -2%, +26%, and +23% respectively[4] Exports - Exports for the first 14 days of September are estimated to have increased by approximately 4.1% year-on-year, supported by high-frequency port data[5] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen fluctuations in funding rates, with R007 at 1.47% and DR007 at 1.46% as of September 14[72] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 24,315 billion yuan through reverse repos in recent weeks[72] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and stronger-than-expected policy measures[77]

Supply and Demand - Construction starts remain at seasonal low levels, with asphalt plant operating rates at 32.9%, down 12.9% year-on-year, and cement dispatch rates at 40.1%, down 4.4% year-on-year[14] - Industrial production shows a mixed picture, with PX operating rates at 82.4%, down 7.7% year-on-year, while automotive steel tire operating rates have decreased[24] - Some construction demand has turned positive year-on-year, with rebar apparent demand showing a positive change, primarily due to a low base in 2024[29] Prices - International commodity prices are fluctuating, with crude oil prices declining and gold prices showing a slight increase[39] - Domestic industrial prices are generally weak, with the Nanhua Composite Index declining, while coal prices have continued to rise[40] - Agricultural product prices have shown an upward trend, while pork prices have been declining[56] Real Estate - New housing transactions remain at historical lows, with a 18% decrease in average transaction area in 30 major cities compared to the previous two weeks, and a year-on-year decline of 29% compared to 2023[58] - Second-hand housing transactions are also weak, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing year-on-year changes of -8%, +4%, and +2% respectively[62] Exports - Exports from August 1 to 17 are estimated to have increased by approximately 7% to 9% year-on-year, with models indicating a 7% increase and container ship loading data suggesting a 9% increase[65] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen fluctuations in funding rates, with the R007 at 1.45% and DR007 at 1.51% as of August 1[71] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 21,022 billion yuan through reverse repos in recent weeks[72] Risk Warning - There are risks associated with unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and potential changes in policy strength[76]

Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - The article predicts that gold and copper prices are experiencing fluctuations upward, while oil prices are on the rise [1] - The gold price has recently declined due to a rebound in June CPI data, a decrease in interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, and a strengthening dollar index [12] - The prices of major commodities such as rebar and thermal coal continue to rise, while the price of cement is on a downward trend [11] Group 2: Consumer Market Analysis - New home sales are experiencing an expanded decline, while the sales of used cars are slightly recovering, and the average price of home appliances has mostly decreased year-on-year [3] - Service consumption shows a mixed performance, with a slight increase in foot traffic in commercial areas, but a decline in movie box office revenues [4] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles are declining, with wholesale sales increasing, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3] Group 3: Foreign Trade Insights - Export activities are showing signs of weakness, with a decrease in the growth rate of departing ships' cargo weight and a decline in export container freight rates [6] - The shipping volume from China to the U.S. has increased, while U.S. retailers and wholesalers are experiencing a year-on-year decline in inventory levels [7][6] Group 4: Production Trends - The production of rebar is decreasing, and inventory levels are continuing to drop, leading to a rise in prices due to market sentiment and cost support [9] - High temperatures are increasing daily coal consumption at power plants, which is positively impacting market sentiment and leading to a rise in coal prices [10] Group 5: Price Movements - The article notes that the prices of various commodities have shown a decline recently, with specific mention of the continuous rise in domestic pork wholesale prices and the recovery of glass prices [11] - The article highlights the fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly the stability of copper and oil prices amidst geopolitical influences [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment in the commodity market has turned positive, and polyester prices have followed suit. Despite the expectation of reduced downstream polyester load, the actual production has reached a new high. In July, both bottle chips and staple fibers are entering the maintenance cycle. The PTA spot market is becoming more abundant, with an increase in the arrival of spot goods. Due to compressed profits, polyester replenishment willingness is low [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Indicators Price Indicators - PTA spot price increased from 4720 to 4730, a rise of 10 [2]. - MEG domestic price rose from 4400 to 4437, an increase of 37 [2]. - PTA closing price increased from 4706 to 4714, up 8 [2]. - MEG closing price went up from 4351 to 4372, a gain of 21 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6680 to 6635, a drop of 45 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber basis decreased from 130 to 105, a decline of 25 [2]. - 8 - 9 spread increased from 136 to 154, up 18 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a rise of 6 [2]. - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5760 [2]. - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 920 to 875, a drop of 45 [2]. - East China water bottle chip price increased from 5909 to 5915, up 6 [2]. - Hot - filled polyester bottle chip price increased from 5909 to 5915, up 6 [2]. - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6009 to 6015, up 6 [2]. - Outer - market water bottle chip price remained unchanged at 780 [2]. - Bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 399 to 384, a decline of 14.95 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10510 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3830 to 3875, up 45 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16280 [2]. - Cotton 328 price increased from 15180 to 15390, up 210 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1113 to 1064, a decline of 49.55 [2]. - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) fiber price decreased from 7100 to 7085, a drop of 15 [2]. - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 390 to 354, a decline of 35.95 [2]. - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price decreased from 7415 to 7395, a drop of 20 [2]. Production and Sales Indicators - Direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) decreased from 92.30% to 93.00%, a decline of 0.01 [3]. - Polyester staple fiber production and sales rate increased from 48.00% to 47.00%, a rise of 1.00% [3]. - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) decreased from 66.00% to 65.00%, a decline of 0.01 [3]. - Recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 51.50% to 46.00%, a decline of 0.06 [3].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - China's GDP maintained high growth in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3% at constant prices, reaching 6.60536 trillion yuan. The primary, secondary, and tertiary industries grew by 3.7%, 5.3%, and 5.5% respectively. Q1 GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, and Q2 by 5.2%. The Q2 GDP increased by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter [1] - In June 2025, the decline in commodity residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to narrow year-on-year, while prices decreased month-on-month. In first-tier cities, new and second-hand residential sales prices dropped by 0.3% and 0.7% respectively month-on-month [1] Group 2: Industry Chain Conditions Upstream - Black commodities: Prices of rebar and iron ore rose slightly [2] - Chemicals: PTA prices declined [2] Midstream - Chemicals: The operating rates of polyester and PX stabilized, and the urea operating rate increased [3] Downstream - Real estate: Sales of commercial housing in first- and second-tier cities stabilized at the bottom [4] - Services: The number of domestic flights increased during the summer vacation [4] Group 3: Industry Credit Spreads - The report provides credit spread data for multiple industries as of July 2, 2025, including agriculture, mining, chemicals, and others, showing the spreads' trends over different time periods [48] Group 4: Key Industry Price Indicators - The report tracks price indicators of multiple industries as of July 15, 2025, including agriculture, energy, chemicals, and real estate, presenting the current prices, year-on-year changes, and trends over the past 5 days [49]

Supply and Demand - Industrial production is slowing down, with some chemical and automotive sectors experiencing a decline in operating rates[2] - Construction activity has decreased, with cement dispatch rates and oil asphalt plant operating rates falling to historical lows[2] - Building demand is weak, with apparent demand for rebar, wire rods, and construction materials lower than historical levels[3] Prices - Geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a decline in oil and gold prices, while copper and aluminum prices continue to rise[4] - Domestic industrial products are experiencing strong fluctuations, with the Nanhua Comprehensive Index showing a rebound[4] Real Estate - New housing transactions in first-tier cities have seen an expanded year-on-year decline, with a drop of 19% compared to 2023 and 17% compared to 2024[5] - Second-hand housing transaction volumes have weakened, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing year-on-year declines of 9%, 19%, and a slight increase of 5% respectively compared to 2024[5] Exports - June exports are expected to show a year-on-year increase of around 2%, with early July exports projected to rise by approximately 3%[6] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen a rise in funding rates, with R007 at 1.49% and DR007 at 1.42% as of July 4[5] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 14,808 billion yuan in monetary policy[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges in forming a consensus on market demand amidst concerns of weak long-term demand, particularly in the context of U.S. stagflation and deflationary pressures in the Asia-Pacific region [3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Short-term market consensus is difficult to establish due to prevailing pessimism regarding demand, influenced by external shocks that are hard to predict [3]. - The U.S. government's proposal to significantly increase biofuel blending requirements is expected to drive up domestic demand for soybean oil, leading to a notable price increase [4][5]. Group 2: Policy Impacts - The proposed increase in biofuel blending requirements aims to boost domestic biofuel production and reduce reliance on imported raw materials, which is expected to raise soybean oil prices significantly [4]. - If the proposal is implemented, domestic soybean oil demand could rise from approximately 6 million tons per year to between 7.4 and 7.6 million tons by 2025-2027, representing an increase of about 1.5 million tons [5][6]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Projections - Historical demand surges, such as the price increase of soybean oil from $0.30 to $0.87 per pound between 2022 and 2023, suggest that current trends could push prices towards $0.60 per pound [7]. - The anticipated increase in soybean crushing demand could elevate U.S. soybean crushing levels to 2.7 billion bushels, improving the soybean balance sheet and supporting higher soybean prices [7]. Group 4: Geopolitical Considerations - The article highlights the potential for geopolitical conflicts to impact commodity prices, with historical examples showing significant price increases during crises [9][11]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could lead to sustained high prices for commodities if supply chains are disrupted [10][15]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - The long-term trajectory of commodity prices will depend on the evolution of geopolitical conflicts and their impact on supply chains, with a focus on whether these conflicts will lead to a permanent increase in prices [17]. - The interplay between geopolitical risks and overall demand will be crucial in determining the stability of commodity prices in the future [17].

Core Viewpoint - Despite an increase in port inventories and a continuous decline in rebar demand, iron ore prices remain relatively stable and do not show significant downward movement [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Port inventories of iron ore have increased, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [1] - Demand for rebar, a key steel product, continues to decline, which typically would exert downward pressure on iron ore prices [1] Group 2: Price Stability - Iron ore prices are described as "not falling significantly," suggesting that market dynamics are preventing a sharp decline despite the unfavorable demand-supply conditions [1]

Supply and Demand - Construction activity shows a significant decline in cement usage, with construction site funding availability lower than the same period in 2024[2] - Industrial production remains at a seasonal high, but some sectors are declining, such as polyester chip production which has dropped to a low level[2][24] - Building demand is weak, with rebar and construction material demand below historical levels[3][31] Prices - International commodity prices for oil, copper, and aluminum are fluctuating, while gold prices have increased[4][39] - Domestic industrial products are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the South China comprehensive index nearing its September 2024 low[4][41] Real Estate - New housing transactions remain at historical lows, with a 7% week-on-week decline in transaction area across 30 major cities, down 41% compared to 2023[5][59] - Second-hand housing transaction volumes are weakening, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing year-on-year declines of -1%, -15%, and +6% respectively[5][61] Exports - High-frequency export data for the first week of June indicates a potential year-on-year decline of around -8%[6][67] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen a decline in funding rates, with R007 at 1.55% and DR007 at 1.53% as of June 6[5][80] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 358.6 billion yuan in recent weeks[5][82]