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宏观经济专题:建筑需求同比下行速度放缓
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-08-19 01:47
Supply and Demand - Construction starts remain at seasonal low levels, with asphalt plant operating rates at 32.9%, down 12.9% year-on-year, and cement dispatch rates at 40.1%, down 4.4% year-on-year[14] - Industrial production shows a mixed picture, with PX operating rates at 82.4%, down 7.7% year-on-year, while automotive steel tire operating rates have decreased[24] - Some construction demand has turned positive year-on-year, with rebar apparent demand showing a positive change, primarily due to a low base in 2024[29] Prices - International commodity prices are fluctuating, with crude oil prices declining and gold prices showing a slight increase[39] - Domestic industrial prices are generally weak, with the Nanhua Composite Index declining, while coal prices have continued to rise[40] - Agricultural product prices have shown an upward trend, while pork prices have been declining[56] Real Estate - New housing transactions remain at historical lows, with a 18% decrease in average transaction area in 30 major cities compared to the previous two weeks, and a year-on-year decline of 29% compared to 2023[58] - Second-hand housing transactions are also weak, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing year-on-year changes of -8%, +4%, and +2% respectively[62] Exports - Exports from August 1 to 17 are estimated to have increased by approximately 7% to 9% year-on-year, with models indicating a 7% increase and container ship loading data suggesting a 9% increase[65] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen fluctuations in funding rates, with the R007 at 1.45% and DR007 at 1.51% as of August 1[71] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 21,022 billion yuan through reverse repos in recent weeks[72] Risk Warning - There are risks associated with unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and potential changes in policy strength[76]
宏观经济专题:工业生产趋缓,地产成交趋弱
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-07-08 01:16
Supply and Demand - Industrial production is slowing down, with some chemical and automotive sectors experiencing a decline in operating rates[2] - Construction activity has decreased, with cement dispatch rates and oil asphalt plant operating rates falling to historical lows[2] - Building demand is weak, with apparent demand for rebar, wire rods, and construction materials lower than historical levels[3] Prices - Geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a decline in oil and gold prices, while copper and aluminum prices continue to rise[4] - Domestic industrial products are experiencing strong fluctuations, with the Nanhua Comprehensive Index showing a rebound[4] Real Estate - New housing transactions in first-tier cities have seen an expanded year-on-year decline, with a drop of 19% compared to 2023 and 17% compared to 2024[5] - Second-hand housing transaction volumes have weakened, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing year-on-year declines of 9%, 19%, and a slight increase of 5% respectively compared to 2024[5] Exports - June exports are expected to show a year-on-year increase of around 2%, with early July exports projected to rise by approximately 3%[6] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen a rise in funding rates, with R007 at 1.49% and DR007 at 1.42% as of July 4[5] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 14,808 billion yuan in monetary policy[5]
宏观经济专题:经济动能边际放缓
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-06-09 08:46
2025 年 06 月 09 日 经济动能边际放缓 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 何宁(分析师) 郭晓彬(联系人) hening@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790522110002 3.需求端,建筑需求偏弱,汽车、家电需求转弱。最近两周,建筑需求弱于历史 同期,螺纹钢、线材、建材表观需求低于历史同期。汽车销售同比有所回落,中 国轻纺城成交量处于同期历史低位,义乌小商品价格指数有所回升,多数家电线 上、线下销售额低于 2024 年同期。 商品价格:国际定价产品偏强,国内定价产品偏弱 1.国际大宗商品:原油、铜铝震荡运行,黄金上行。最近两周,原油、铜、铝价 格震荡运行;金价有所回升。 2.国内工业品:震荡偏弱运行。最近两周,国内定价工业品震荡偏弱运行,南华 综合指数已接近 2024 年 9 月低位水平。黑色、煤炭以及多数化工品价格回落, 建材中除沥青外价格均回落。 地产与流动性:二手房成交量转弱,资金利率震荡下行 1.新建房:总体成交维持历史低位,一线城市有韧性。最近两周(5 月 25 日至 6 月 7 日),全国 30 大中城市商品房成交面积平均值较上两周环比回落 7%,从季 节性上看弱于历史同期,较 ...
宏观周报:出口高频数据尚未大幅回升-20250518
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-05-18 12:15
Supply and Demand - Construction starts show a structural positive change, with infrastructure cement usage exceeding the same period in 2024[2] - Industrial production remains at a seasonally high level, with the chemical chain operating at historical highs[2] - Demand in construction is weak, while automotive and home appliance demand is improving, with rolling sales of passenger cars showing a year-on-year increase[3] Price Trends - International commodity prices show a mixed trend, with oil and gold prices declining while base metals are rising[4] - Domestic industrial products are experiencing a slight rebound, with rebar prices recovering and some chemical and building material prices showing signs of rebound[4] - Food prices are trending downward, with agricultural product prices fluctuating downwards and pork prices remaining stable[4] Real Estate and Liquidity - New housing transactions remain at historical lows, although first-tier cities show improvement, with transaction area in major cities up 2% week-on-week[5] - Second-hand housing transactions in Beijing and Shenzhen show a marginal year-on-year decline, while Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions continue at historical highs[5] - Liquidity is tightening, with funding rates declining; as of May 16, R007 was at 1.63% and DR007 at 1.64%[5] Export Performance - High-frequency export data has not significantly rebounded, with May exports expected to be around 0% year-on-year as of May 17[6] - Port throughput data indicates a potential decline in exports, with daily export transport data showing some resilience but not a substantial recovery[6] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and potential changes in policy strength[6]