证 券 研 究 报 告 巴比食品（605338）2025 年业绩快报点评 强推（维持） Q4 外卖补贴退坡，26 新店加速贡献 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 2 月 3 日收盘价 公司研究 速冻食品 2026 年 2 月 4 日 目标价：35.6 元 当前价：31.10 元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧阳予 事项： ❖ 公司发布业绩快报，25 全年实现收入 18.59 亿，同比增长 11.22%；归母净利 润 2.73 亿，同比下降 1.30%，扣非净利润 2.45 亿，同比增长 16.49%。 ❖ 风险提示: 原材料价格大幅波动、市场竞争加剧、开店进度不及预期。 | | | | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 1,671 | 1,861 | 2,084 | 2,515 | | 同比增速(%) | 2.5% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 20.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 277 | 273 | 324 | 407 | | 同比增速(%) ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 35.6 yuan [1]. Core Insights - The company is set to accelerate its store openings, which will enhance its growth potential. The new store model has been validated, and the company aims to achieve its 2025 store opening targets. The report outlines a three-phase growth strategy: "from 0 to 1," "from 1 to 10," and "from 10 to 100," indicating a clear operational turning point and the beginning of a new growth cycle [6][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,671 million yuan in 2024 to 2,540 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.6% in 2027 [2]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 277 million yuan in 2024 to 408 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 25.7% in 2027 [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 1.15 yuan in 2024 to 1.70 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 25 times in 2024 to 17 times in 2027 [2][7]. Store Expansion Strategy - The company has successfully opened new stores in various regions, including Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong, and Hubei, validating the replicability of its new store model. The upcoming franchisee conferences and the peak opening season after the Spring Festival are expected to catalyze further growth [6][7]. - The report anticipates that the company will reach a mid-term target of 1,500 to 2,000 new stores, with potential for even greater expansion in the long term [6][7]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a leader in the steamed bun industry, with a focus on continuous innovation and operational efficiency. The report emphasizes the attractiveness of the business model to franchisees, which is expected to drive further expansion and enhance brand strength [6][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that 达势股份 (Dashi Co.) experienced a significant revenue growth of 27% year-on-year, reaching 2.6 billion yuan, and an adjusted net profit increase of 80% to 91.42 million yuan, exceeding expectations due to better-than-expected single-store profitability [1][2] - The company has steadily expanded its store network, opening 190 new stores in the first half of the year, with 6 in first-tier cities and 184 in non-first-tier cities, bringing the total number of stores to 1,198 [1] - The company entered 9 new cities in the first half of the year, with stores located in 48 cities by the end of June, indicating significant room for further expansion [1] Group 2 - Same-store revenue showed resilience, with first-tier cities experiencing positive year-on-year growth, while overall same-store revenue declined by 1% due to high comparison bases from strong initial performances in newly entered markets [1] - The operating profit margin at the store level improved by 0.1 percentage points to 14.6% year-on-year, and the group's cash compensation expenses, depreciation and amortization, and management expenses as a percentage of revenue decreased by 0.4, 0.3, and 0.3 percentage points respectively [2] - The company maintains a buy rating, optimistic about its potential for store openings and single-store performance in the Chinese pizza market [2]