财联社 . 以下文章来源于财联社 ，作者潇湘 我们先来看看上周末兴起的谣言究竟是怎么说的： 根据社交媒体X平台上广为传播的版本，"故事"是从周日"诞生"的：一家具有系统重要性的银行——即Comex白银期货市场的主要参与者，未能在美 国东部时间周日凌晨2点前支付追加保证金的要求，并于美国东部时间凌晨2点47分被期货交易所强制进行清算。 财联社是上海报业集团主管主办，定位资本市场报道财经通讯社，以"准确、快速、权威、专业"为准则，提供7x24小时金融信息服务。 本周伊始，一张惊人的截图在X平台以每小时数百条的传播速度在投资圈内中疯传，其宣称的骇人内容——一家"系统重要性"银行白银爆仓濒临破 产、交易所深夜强制平仓、美联储据称被迫向系统注入数十亿美元资金，挑动着每一根金融敏感神经。 这读起来就像是电影《大空头》或《追加保证金》的续集，在圣诞节到元旦之间的传统新闻淡季，整个互联网对此趋之若鹜。而这家被"隐去"名字的 银行，更是引发了业内的无数猜测，从摩根大通到瑞银——"爆仓银行"的受害者名单层出不穷。 然而，正如日常生活中屡试不爽的一则公理一样："最引人入胜的内容往往也是最不诚实的" ——谣言止于智者，辟谣出于行动。 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 芝加哥商品交易所（CME）宣布两周内第二次上调白银期货保证金，新规于12月29日（周一）生效， 白银市场由此迎来关键一周。 CME推出的"白银规则7"（Silver Rule 7）有效消除了杠杆交易，叠加时任美联储主席保罗·沃尔克（Paul Volcker）的加息举措，彻底终结了白银涨势，亨特兄弟也因此破产。 Qinbafrank指出，尽管此次干预力度相对温和，但上调保证金仍会降低市场杠杆。这将迫使交易者追加 更多资金或平仓离场，而这往往与他们的长期持仓信念无关。 实物与纸白银背离加剧，供应紧张成银价核心支撑 该交易所已将2026年3月到期的白银期货合约初始保证金要求，从本月初的2万美元上调至约2.5万美 元。当前白银价格徘徊于历史高点附近，这一调整进一步加大了杠杆交易者的压力。 CME干预举措引发历史重演担忧 这一决定引发市场激烈辩论：白银涨势是否已过热，还是仅进入由结构性供应紧张和全球资金流动驱动 的震荡整理阶段。 加密货币投资者、宏观分析师Qinbafrank警示，CME的这一举措让人联想到白银市场两个标志性的峰值 时刻——1980年和2011年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market is fragile, and stock returns are likely to face ongoing challenges, with a potential for a prolonged bear market rather than a sharp financial crisis [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The absence of a clear financial crisis means the market will not experience a rapid sell-off, leading to a slow and painful decline that could last for years, reminiscent of the post-dot-com bubble period [2][3]. - Consumer pressure is increasing as the "American exceptionalism" narrative fades, contributing to market volatility [2][4]. - Credit tightening, estimated at around 20%, typically signals an economic recession, but without a crisis, there is no forced deleveraging to create a sustainable market bottom [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Consumer confidence is declining, and discretionary spending is decreasing due to persistent inflation in essentials like food, energy, and housing, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [4][5]. - Global capital is withdrawing from the U.S., tightening domestic liquidity and increasing volatility [4][5]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Policy Risks - Geopolitical risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and changes in fiscal policy, including increased defense spending in Europe, are adding to market uncertainty [5][6]. - Market expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts may be misaligned, with potential cuts needing to be deeper than currently anticipated, by 20-50 basis points [5][6]. Group 4: Trading Dynamics - Hedge funds are experiencing the highest level of deleveraging since 2008, exacerbating liquidity-driven volatility [7][8]. - Key technical levels are collapsing, turning previous support into resistance, which increases the risk of further declines [9][10]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - In this market environment, patience and tactical positioning are essential, as it is not a time for bottom-fishing but rather for cautious navigation [15][17]. - Suggested strategies include going long on MDAX stocks, shorting bond substitutes, and investing in gold while shorting the U.S. dollar [18].