中央财办有关负责同志在解读中央经济工作会议精神时指出，展望明年，世界经济有望延续温和增长态势，但变数较多。从国内看，我们面临 的困难挑战不少，但经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大等长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变，中国特色社会主义制度优势、超大规 模市场优势、完整产业体系优势、丰富人才资源优势将更加彰显。 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会中方首席顾问、国务院发展研究中心原副主任刘世锦在接受21世纪经济报道记者专访时表示，中国经济有三大 优势，一是追赶潜能优势，人均国内生产总值要达到中等发达国家水平，至少还有2万美元的增长潜能，主要是消费结构升级带动的服务业发 展、传统制造业和农业的转型升级等方面的潜能；二是以数字技术和绿色技术为重点的新技术革命优势；三是超大规模市场经济优势。在此基 础之上，下一步中国需要建设制造强国、消费强国和金融强国。 刘世锦。资料图 人均GDP仍有2万美元追赶潜能 《21世纪》：从中国经济发展逻辑来看，如何理解"十五五"这一关键时期？我国经济具备哪些增长优势？ 刘世锦：党的二十届四中全会提出，"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期，要巩固拓展优势、破除瓶颈制 ...

Growth Targets and Economic Framework - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes achieving a per capita GDP of $20,000 (constant prices) by 2035, which is considered the threshold for "middle-developed countries" [5] - To meet this target, an average annual GDP growth rate of 4.17% is required during the "15th" and "16th" Five-Year Plans, considering a projected annual population decrease of approximately 0.20% [7] - The IMF recognizes 39 developed countries with a per capita GDP generally exceeding $20,000, which serves as a benchmark for China's growth aspirations [7] Economic Growth Projections - The expected growth rate for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is projected to be between 4.5% and 4.9%, while the "16th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to be between 4.0% and 4.4% [18] - Achieving the 2035 target necessitates a compound annual growth rate of 4.4% over the next decade, factoring in a potential annual population decline [18] Structural Economic Changes - The transition from a GDP-driven growth model to a composite model involving productivity, inflation, and exchange rates is essential for sustainable growth [21] - The focus on "new quality productivity" is critical, aiming to enhance total factor productivity as a response to labor force contraction [26] Monetary Policy Considerations - The current monetary policy environment suggests limited room for interest rate cuts, with a focus on maintaining interest rate spreads [60] - A moderate easing of monetary policy is expected, primarily through liquidity support and structural adjustments rather than broad-based rate cuts [63] Fiscal Policy and Domestic Demand - The fiscal deficit is projected to remain between 3.8% and 4.0%, with a broad deficit exceeding 12 trillion yuan, emphasizing the need for effective fiscal measures to stimulate domestic demand [89] - The shift from "infrastructure finance" to "livelihood finance" is crucial for enhancing fiscal multipliers and improving overall economic efficiency [89]