中等发达国家的丰富内涵与政策指向 " 穷则独善其身，达则兼济天下。 " 出自《孟子》，本为修身之道，用于国家层 面，同样揭示了一条发展逻辑 —— 从有余到有为。 IMF 国家分类实践也提供了 印证，经济规模和人均收入只是 " 发达国家 " 的表层指标，真正构成 " 发达 " 内涵 的，是结构是否稳固，制度是否透明，社会是否包容，创新是否持久。财富水 平可以衡量一个国家有多富裕，而文明能力才可以决定一个国家有多发达。这 一点在中国式现代化道路上体现得尤为清晰。中国正在进入一个 " 底线稳固、上 限打开 " 的新阶段。底线强调安全、稳定、韧性，重在托住 14 亿人口的基本生 活、就业和预期，上限指向科技创新、制度完善、社会进步，重在抬升潜在增 速、开放能力与文明辐射。其内在支撑，是 " 投资于物 " 与 " 投资于人 " 的紧密结 合，是 " 物的现代化 " 与 " 人的现代化 " 的同向发力。经济要有足够的承载力，社 会要有足够的包容度，文明要有足够的温度，一个国家才能在真正意义上达到 " 发达 " 的层级。 什么是发达国家？富裕不等于发达。简言之，高收入国家并不一定是发达国 家。"十五五"规划建议提出，到 2 ...

中国正在进入一个"底线稳固、上限打开"的新阶段。 "穷则独善其身，达则兼济天下。"出自《孟子》，本为修身之道，用于国家层面，同样揭示了一条发展 逻辑——从有余到有为。国际货币基金组织（IMF）国家分类实践也提供了印证，经济规模和人均收入 只是"发达国家"的表层指标，真正构成"发达"内涵的，是结构是否稳固、制度是否透明、社会是否包 容、创新是否持久。 财富水平可以衡量一个国家有多富裕，而文明能力才可以决定一个国家有多发达。这一点在中国式现代 化道路上体现得尤为清晰。中国正在进入一个"底线稳固、上限打开"的新阶段。底线强调安全、稳定、 韧性，重在托住14亿人口的基本生活、就业和预期，上限指向科技创新、制度完善、社会进步，重在抬 升潜在增速、开放能力与文明辐射。其内在支撑，是"投资于物"与"投资于人"的紧密结合，是"物的现 代化"与"人的现代化"的同向发力。经济要有足够的承载力，社会要有足够的包容度，文明要有足够的 温度，一个国家才能在真正意义上达到"发达"的层级。 什么是发达？富裕不等于发达 高收入国家并不一定是发达国家。"十五五"规划建议提出，到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平， 而厘清"中等发达国家" ...

格隆汇12月16日｜据国是直通车，国务院发展研究中心原党组书记马建堂表示，2022年世界银行列举的 十五个中等发达国家人均GDP平均数是2.3万美元。以2024年中国经济实际情况为基础，假设到2035年 人均GDP达到2万美元(中等发达国家的门槛水平)，剩下11年中国经济年均需要增长3.7%，如果到2035 年达到2.3万美元，剩下11年年均需要增长5%。由于中国的人口总量有所下降，人均GDP增长速度预计 将比5%高一些。因此，如果不考虑汇率问题、不考虑未来11年出现大的通货膨胀问题，按照目前和未 来实际情况，可以预测，到2035年中国人均GDP达到2.3万美元是完全可能的。 ...

Growth Targets and Economic Framework - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes achieving a per capita GDP of $20,000 (constant prices) by 2035, which is considered the threshold for "middle-developed countries" [5] - To meet this target, an average annual GDP growth rate of 4.17% is required during the "15th" and "16th" Five-Year Plans, considering a projected annual population decrease of approximately 0.20% [7] - The IMF recognizes 39 developed countries with a per capita GDP generally exceeding $20,000, which serves as a benchmark for China's growth aspirations [7] Economic Growth Projections - The expected growth rate for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is projected to be between 4.5% and 4.9%, while the "16th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to be between 4.0% and 4.4% [18] - Achieving the 2035 target necessitates a compound annual growth rate of 4.4% over the next decade, factoring in a potential annual population decline [18] Structural Economic Changes - The transition from a GDP-driven growth model to a composite model involving productivity, inflation, and exchange rates is essential for sustainable growth [21] - The focus on "new quality productivity" is critical, aiming to enhance total factor productivity as a response to labor force contraction [26] Monetary Policy Considerations - The current monetary policy environment suggests limited room for interest rate cuts, with a focus on maintaining interest rate spreads [60] - A moderate easing of monetary policy is expected, primarily through liquidity support and structural adjustments rather than broad-based rate cuts [63] Fiscal Policy and Domestic Demand - The fiscal deficit is projected to remain between 3.8% and 4.0%, with a broad deficit exceeding 12 trillion yuan, emphasizing the need for effective fiscal measures to stimulate domestic demand [89] - The shift from "infrastructure finance" to "livelihood finance" is crucial for enhancing fiscal multipliers and improving overall economic efficiency [89]

Group 1: Growth Targets - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for per capita GDP to reach the level of middle-developed countries by 2035, with a target of exceeding $20,000[1] - To achieve this, an average annual GDP growth rate of 4.17% is required during the "14th" and "15th Five-Year" periods[2] - The per capita GDP in 2035 is projected to be over $20,000, which is below the developed country threshold of approximately $29,000[8] Group 2: Measurement Standards - Two parallel standards for measuring the growth target are established: exceeding $20,000 in nominal terms and doubling the per capita GDP from 2020 levels in real terms by 2035[6] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recognizes 41 developed economies with a per capita GDP threshold of about $23,400, while China’s current per capita GDP is approximately $13,300[3] - The World Bank classifies 87 high-income economies, with a high-income threshold of $13,935, placing China in the upper-middle-income category[3] Group 3: Economic Context - The population is expected to decrease by about 0.20% annually by 2035, impacting GDP growth calculations[2] - The actual GDP growth rate needed to meet the target is estimated at 4.1%, which aligns closely with the stated 4.17%[7] - The classification of "middle-developed countries" is contextualized as a transitional goal rather than a benchmark within developed countries[8]

Core Insights - The strategic direction is clear: internally "stimulating consumption" and externally "enhancing technology" to reach the peak of industry [1][8] Group 1: Economic Goals - The 20th Central Committee has reaffirmed the goal of achieving "per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries" by 2035 [1][2] - Current per capita GDP in China is approximately $14,000, ranking 70th globally, indicating a significant gap to close to reach the target [2][3] Group 2: Growth Engines - Future economic growth will rely on two core actions: "expanding domestic demand" and "enhancing new momentum" [3][4] - Expanding domestic demand focuses on encouraging young people to spend, particularly by improving the pension system for rural elderly [4][5] Group 3: New Momentum - "New quality productivity" is essential for climbing the GDP peak, with a clear future industrial structure [6] - Traditional industries will be empowered with AI and green technologies, while emerging industries like new energy vehicles and industrial metaverse will be prioritized [6][7] Group 4: Open Strategy - The strategy includes transitioning from merely attracting foreign investment to participating in and leading the establishment of global standards and regulations [7] - Emphasis on maintaining multilateral trade and expanding two-way investment, particularly in high-tech and green energy sectors [7][8]

Core Insights - The article highlights a paradox where China is experiencing strong export growth while domestic consumption remains weak, indicating a significant challenge for the Chinese economy [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Context - China's export value is expected to exceed its import value by $1 trillion this year, suggesting that while China produces for the world, it is not benefiting from a corresponding increase in domestic demand [1]. - The reliance on global consumers for economic stability is becoming increasingly complex due to escalating trade tensions, particularly with the United States [3]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The anticipated "revenge spending" post-pandemic has not materialized; instead, there is a trend towards "revenge saving," as households prioritize savings over consumption due to economic uncertainty [12][15]. - Many families are experiencing financial strain, with rising costs in healthcare and education, leading to a reluctance to spend even when they have assets [15][22]. Group 3: Employment and Income - Official statistics indicate a stable unemployment rate of around 3% for those over 30, but this masks the reality of many middle-aged individuals who have transitioned to lower-paying jobs [9][11]. - The average pension for over half of China's retired population is approximately $1 per day, severely limiting their consumption capacity [19][20]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that China's economic model is unbalanced, with a need to shift focus from investment in infrastructure to investing in human capital, such as healthcare and education, to stimulate consumer confidence [23][26]. - The government's current strategies may take time to yield results, and immediate expectations for a turnaround in consumer spending should be tempered [26].