每经记者：张寿林 每经编辑：陈俊杰 日前，在华夏时报主办的第十九届华夏机构投资者年会暨华夏金融（保险）科技论坛上，国务院发展研究中心原副主任、第十三届全国政协经济委员会副主 任刘世锦发表演讲。他表示，中国经济增长由高速转向中速，背后是供给不足转向需求不足，相应地，增长动能由投资和出口驱动为主转向创新与消费驱动 为主。 刘世锦发表演讲 每经记者 张寿林 摄 刘世锦说，下一步要推动制造强国、消费强国和金融强国建设。 围绕金融强国，刘世锦还提出，中国需要形成强大的货币。从历史看，一国实体经济占全球比重提升，则其货币在全球使用份额相应上升。中国提升人民币 使用份额，重要突破口便是大幅增加离岸人民币数量，离岸人民币流动性、便利性大幅提高，从而逐步成为国际主流货币。 进一步看，刘世锦指出，国际主流货币特点之一是，大量进口都是以本国货币支付结算。美国正是在大量进口中以美元支付，使得美元流向国际市场，从而 形成大规模离岸美元。中国可在保持进出口大体平衡基础上，相应增加进口，并以人民币支付，提升离岸人民币规模。目前，条件已经逐步形成。同时积极 有序发展离岸人民币金融产品，增加人民币流动性和便利性，则可显著加快人民币国际化进程。 ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张萌 卢梦雪 北京报道 12月12日，由华夏时报社主办的第十九届华夏机构投资者年会暨华夏金融（保险）科技论坛在北京举 行。 二是以数字技术和绿色技术为重点的新技术革命优势。与以往技术革命不同，中国在本次革命中产业工 程化和商业应用场景等领域，已经处于并驾齐驱或局部领先的位置，开始踏入全球科技进步前沿的无人 区。在低碳绿色产业等领域，中国走出了具有自身特殊的创新驱动绿色转型路径。 三是超大规模市场经济优势。刘世锦特别强调，这不仅包括超大规模消费市场，还包括生产、投资、贸 易、创新、金融、货币等全方位规模效应。他提到，4亿中等收入群体是一个巨大的消费市场，而更有 潜力的是9亿中低收入阶层逐步转为中等收入群体。"到那个时候的市场消费规模，与今天是不可同日而 语的。" 金融强国的关键性标识是形成强大货币 基于三大优势，刘世锦提出应构建"制造强国、消费强国、金融强国"的现代化"基础三角结构"。 本届年会以"活力与韧性 拓新与赋能"为核心主题，由中央财经大学数字经济融合创新发展中心、华夏 时报金融思想荟、华夏时报金融研究院联合提供智力支持，意在回应时代之问，凝聚发展共识，探寻 ...

第一是追赶潜能的优势，就是发达经济体已经做过、中国还没有做但是有条件做的事情。刘世锦表示， 中国与中等发达国家之间的差距是追赶潜能，主要包括消费结构升级带动的服务业发展、传统制造业和 农业转型升级等。中国在追赶潜能上的优势在于需求侧很稳定，而且供给侧的技术相对成熟，整体确定 性较强。在当前充满不确定性的环境下，一定要先抓住确定性强的东西，保持学习的态度，争取以较低 的成本和较短的时间实现这部分潜能。 12月6日，国务院发展研究中心原副主任刘世锦在中国证券报主办的"双创融合 智启新程——2025科创 投资大会"上发表主题演讲。站在"十五五"新起点，刘世锦认为，中国目前具备三大重要优势。 第二是以数字技术和绿色技术为重点的新技术革命优势。相比此前，刘世锦认为，中国在这一次的技术 革命中与领先者的差距已经明显缩短，并且在产业工程化和商业应用场景等重点领域已实现并驾齐驱或 局部领先，中国开始踏入全球科技进步的前沿甚至"无人区"。 首先是制造强国。刘世锦表示，虽然中国的制造业占全球制造业的比重超过30%，但在部分制造业生产 率、增加值等指标上仍落后于发达国家，目前处在全球价值链向上提升的过程中。未来，中国要重点提 升劳 ...

● 本报记者 王鹤静 12月6日，国务院发展研究中心原副主任刘世锦在中国证券报主办的"双创融合 智启新程——2025科创 投资大会"上发表主题演讲。站在"十五五"新起点，刘世锦认为，中国目前具备三大重要优势。 第一是追赶潜能的优势，就是发达经济体已经做过、中国还没有做但是有条件做的事情。刘世锦表示， 中国与中等发达国家之间的差距是追赶潜能，主要包括消费结构升级带动的服务业发展、传统制造业和 农业转型升级等。中国在追赶潜能上的优势在于需求侧很稳定，而且供给侧的技术相对成熟，整体确定 性较强。在当前充满不确定性的环境下，一定要先抓住确定性强的东西，保持学习的态度，争取以较低 的成本和较短的时间实现这部分潜能。 其次是消费强国。刘世锦表示，中国消费占GDP的比重和全球平均水平相比仍有差距。要想补充短板， 一方面，中国消费者在购买国内产品的同时，要分享全球物美价廉的商品和服务，扩大消费市场；另一 方面，服务消费包括人力资本投资，如教育培训提高智力水平和工作技能，医疗卫生提高健康水平，社 会保障提升劳动者的职业稳定性和社会流动性，人力资本提升才能推动创新，这是消费强国的重要标 志。 最后是金融强国。随着中国经济迈向发达 ...

Group 1 - China's economy is showing resilience and vitality as it approaches the end of 2025, with a focus on navigating challenges and opportunities in 2026 during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1] - Experts believe that China is at a critical stage of structural adjustment, where breaking through reforms will lead to both quantitative and qualitative economic growth [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" marks a shift in China's economic growth from being primarily driven by investment and exports to being driven by innovation and consumption [3] Group 2 - Consumption is crucial for China's economy, and there is a need to actively implement a "strong consumption country" strategy [3] - Increasing the pension levels for low-income groups is seen as a key breakthrough for expanding consumption, with a strong necessity for transferring state-owned capital to support pension funds [3] - The proposal includes reallocating state-owned capital to social security funds and capital markets to create a comprehensive pension system that meets basic living needs and reduces urban-rural disparities [3] Group 3 - China has the potential to become the world's largest consumer market, surpassing the United States, and should implement a new strategy for balanced imports and exports [4] - There is a call to expand the offshore RMB financial product ecosystem to enhance the liquidity and usability of the RMB, promoting its internationalization [4] - As the RMB appreciates, domestic consumers will be able to purchase more and better imported goods and services, thereby enhancing the scale and quality of consumption [4] Group 4 - Deepening reform and opening up is seen as a crucial path for economic breakthroughs, with macro policy optimization being an important support [5] - The focus for 2026 is on establishing a solid foundation for national policies as it will be a year where major global economies compete economically [5] Group 5 - Reform and innovation are identified as fundamental drivers of China's economic development over the past 40 years and are essential for achieving the "Chinese Dream" by 2050 [6] - Addressing issues of urban-rural integration and technological innovation is deemed critical, with a need for better integration of scientific and industrial innovation [6][7] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period should focus on resolving challenges related to insufficient investment in basic innovation and the transformation of technological advancements [7] Group 6 - The GDP growth target for China in 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, which is considered a significant achievement in an international context [8] - Infrastructure investment is highlighted as a key method for stabilizing growth, with a strong emphasis on large-scale infrastructure projects to support economic stability [8] - Consumer spending is viewed as a slow variable, indicating that a significant rebound in consumption may be challenging in the near term [8]

十三届全国政协经济委员会副主任、国务院发展研究中心原副主任刘世锦在大会演讲中提出中国建设消 费强国的三个发力点：成为消费大国，与国际上和中国现阶段人均收入水平相对应的消费占GDP比重大 体接轨；重点发展服务消费，特别是发展型消费；形成全球最大规模的消费市场，或者说全球最大的甲 方，并带动人民币国际化水平的显著提升。 刘世锦认为，与发展阶段和经济规模相比，中国还不能说是消费大国。当务之急是尽快补上消费的结构 性偏差缺口，与国际上和中国现阶段人均收入水平相对应的消费占GDP比重大体接轨，与此相适应的经 济结构关系基本理顺。 再看现阶段重点发展的服务消费，特别是其中的发展型消费，刘世锦指出从统计的角度看，这部分内容 既可以看成是消费，也可以看成是投资，是"投资于人"，是人力资本投资。"比如教育培训提升智力水 平和工作技能，医疗卫生提高健康水平，社会保障提升劳动者的职业稳定性和社会流动性，这些都是从 不同方面提升人力资本，有了人力资本才能创新驱动。" 发展消费强国也需要国内消费者也能分享全球范围物美价廉的商品和服务，形成全球最大规模的消费市 场，或者说全球最大的甲方。 专题：财经中国2025年会 和讯网 12月7日， ...

Core Insights - The conference focused on finding solutions for China's economic challenges, emphasizing the need for a stronger consumer economy [1] Group 1: Consumer Economy Development - Liu Shijun highlighted three key points for building a strong consumer economy in China: aligning consumption with GDP, focusing on service consumption, and creating the largest consumer market globally [3] - The urgent need to address structural consumption gaps was emphasized, aiming to align China's consumption-to-GDP ratio with international standards [3] - Development of service consumption, particularly human capital investment in education, healthcare, and social security, is crucial for innovation-driven growth [3] Group 2: Internationalization of the Renminbi - China accounts for 30% of global manufacturing and is the largest goods exporter, yet its currency's internationalization remains limited [4] - A significant strategy to enhance the international status of the Renminbi involves increasing offshore Renminbi supply to achieve "scale economy" in its usage [4] - By balancing imports and exports while using Renminbi for payments, China could potentially expand its offshore Renminbi market significantly, from over 1 trillion to more than 7 trillion Renminbi [4]

Core Insights - The "Southern Finance Forum 2025" held in Guangzhou focuses on the theme "The Power of Consensus - Innovation Surge, China's Asset Revaluation" [1][7] - Liu Shijun, a key speaker, highlighted three major advantages of China's economy: catch-up potential, new technology revolution, and super-large market economy [3][10] Economic Advantages - **Catch-up Potential**: This refers to opportunities in areas where developed economies have already advanced, such as service industry development driven by consumption structure upgrades and the transformation of traditional manufacturing and agriculture [3][9] - **New Technology Revolution**: Emphasis on digital and green technologies as focal points for economic advancement [3][9] - **Super-large Market Economy**: While China has 400 million middle-income groups, there are 900 million low-income individuals who could transition to middle-income status, potentially creating a consumption market of 800 to 900 million [3][10] Strategic Goals - **Manufacturing Power**: Aim to cultivate large innovative enterprises at the global forefront [10] - **Consumer Power**: Target to become the largest consumer market globally [10] - **Financial Power**: Financial strength is essential for achieving the first two goals, acting as a bridge for development [10] Financial Development - Liu emphasized the need for a robust capital market and strong currency to support high-quality development, focusing on selecting viable projects to enhance resource allocation efficiency [10][11] - The importance of a strong currency is highlighted, with historical examples of the British pound and the US dollar being tied to strong economic and financial systems [11] Currency Internationalization - Current GDP contribution of China's economy is 18% globally, with manufacturing at 30%, but the currency's functional role is below 10% [11] - Liu proposed increasing offshore RMB supply to achieve scale economy and enhance RMB's international use [11][12] - Suggested adjustments to foreign trade strategy to balance imports and exports while using RMB for transactions, potentially converting a trade surplus of nearly $1 trillion into offshore RMB [12] Recommendations for RMB - Advocated for RMB appreciation to allow consumers to access more international products at better prices, supporting the goal of becoming a consumer powerhouse [12] - Suggested expanding the ecosystem of offshore RMB financial products to improve liquidity and convenience, accelerating the process of RMB internationalization [12]

Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is a critical roadmap for China's socio-economic development from 2026 to 2030, focusing on high-quality growth and strategic deployment towards modernization by 2035 [3][5]. Group 1: Economic Performance and Goals - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," China's GDP grew at an average rate of 5.5%, reaching 134 trillion RMB, with per capita GDP increasing from $10,632 in 2020 to $13,445 in 2024 [5]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for significant milestones, including a 70% urbanization rate by 2028, achieving carbon peak by 2030, and a 90% penetration rate for AI applications [3][5]. Group 2: Development Priorities - The plan outlines five main development lines: infrastructure, technology, finance, consumption, and livelihood [4]. - Infrastructure development will focus on major projects like the Sichuan-Tibet Railway and the national water network, which are expected to stabilize the economy [8]. - Technology will shift from factor-driven to innovation-driven growth, emphasizing high-end manufacturing, AI, and energy reform [9][10]. Group 3: Financial Sector - The financial sector is deemed essential for national competitiveness, with a focus on building a robust financial system characterized by strong institutions and regulatory frameworks [10][11]. Group 4: Consumption and Livelihood - The plan addresses insufficient domestic demand, proposing measures to increase household income and reduce consumption burdens, aiming for a consumption rate of 39.9% by 2024 [14][15]. - It emphasizes the importance of public investment in education, healthcare, and social security to stimulate consumption [17][18]. Group 5: Social Policies - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will tackle challenges in public service equality, income stability, and aging population issues, with a focus on health and education [21][22]. - It aims to enhance the quality of life through initiatives in healthcare, childcare, and social welfare, including the introduction of a national childcare subsidy [88][90]. Group 6: Market and Global Integration - The plan emphasizes the establishment of a unified national market to eliminate local protectionism and market fragmentation, which is crucial for enhancing internal stability [40][66]. - It encourages global integration through the "China + N" strategy, promoting international collaboration and investment [72]. Group 7: Key Signals for the Future - The plan reiterates the importance of economic construction, aiming for per capita GDP to reach the level of a moderately developed country by 2035 [74]. - It highlights the commitment to common prosperity, with specific targets for income distribution and social welfare improvements [76][78]. - The focus on "anti-involution" aims to streamline competition and improve industry standards, particularly in emerging sectors like renewable energy and technology [87].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is a crucial period for China's modernization towards 2035 and high-quality economic development, guiding the direction for the next five years [4][3]. Strategic Deployment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" serves as a key five-year period towards the 2035 modernization goal and is essential for high-quality economic development [4][3]. Industry Planning - Key industries to focus on during the "15th Five-Year Plan" include technology (new quality productivity), finance, agriculture, and energy [5]. - Long-term strategic goals include achieving a 70% urbanization rate by 2028, completing debt tasks from 2024 to 2028, reaching carbon peak by 2030, and achieving a 90% application rate for artificial intelligence [5]. Achievements from the 14th Five-Year Plan - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," China's GDP grew at an average rate of 5.5%, reaching 134 trillion RMB, with per capita GDP increasing from 10,632 USD in 2020 to 13,445 USD in 2024 [6]. "Two Major" Projects - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the "Two Major" projects, which focus on implementing national strategic initiatives and enhancing security capabilities in key areas [8]. - Significant projects include the Sichuan-Tibet Railway, Western Land-Sea New Corridor, and the National Water Network, with a planned investment of 800 billion RMB for 1,459 projects by 2025 [9]. Technological Innovation - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will shift China's technological development model from factor-driven to innovation-driven and demand-driven [15]. - Key industries identified for technological focus include high-end intelligent manufacturing, critical technology sectors, new infrastructure in communications, artificial intelligence, and energy reform [15][16]. Financial Development - The "Financial Power" initiative aims to enhance China's financial competitiveness, focusing on six key areas: strong currency, strong central bank, strong financial institutions, strong international financial center, strong financial regulation, and strong financial talent [28][29]. - China's financial competitiveness ranking improved from 41.2 in 2020 to 45.3 in 2024, moving from 8th to 4th globally [36]. Consumer Spending and Economic Growth - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to stimulate consumer spending by increasing residents' income and reducing consumption burdens through optimized fiscal spending [50][53]. - Key sectors for potential consumer growth include the "silver economy," health services, and new consumption patterns driven by increased government investment in education, healthcare, and elderly care [62]. Social Welfare and Public Services - The "15th Five-Year Plan" addresses challenges in public service equality, income stability, and the aging population [61]. - Key investment themes include health and childcare services, human capital services, and emerging consumption sectors [63].