Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that officials may halt the balance sheet reduction in the coming months, acknowledging signs of tightening in the money markets [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - Powell stated that bank reserves remain "ample," but officials are closely monitoring various indicators to determine when to stop the reduction [2] - Since the September FOMC monetary policy meeting, inflation and employment outlooks appear largely unchanged, although signs of labor market weakness are increasing [3][4] - Powell noted that even without government data during the shutdown, the "downside risks to employment seem to have risen" [5] Group 2: Future Rate Decisions - Powell retained the possibility of a rate cut in October, emphasizing that officials face a challenging choice between prematurely ending the fight against inflation and delaying support for the labor market [6] - Market reactions to Powell's comments were evident in the widening of dollar swap spreads, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index dropping to a daily low and U.S. Treasury yields declining following his remarks [7]

Core Insights - The latest weekly initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased, reversing the previous week's sharp increase, leading to a rise in the Bloomberg Dollar Index to its highest point of the day [1] - Initial jobless claims were reported at 231,000, lower than the expected 240,000, while continuing claims stood at 1.92 million, also below the forecast of 1.95 million [1] - Analysts view the jobless claims data as robust, but still anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut in October [1] Economic Indicators - The Bloomberg Dollar Index increased by 0.4%, marking the largest intraday gain since September 2 [1] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose by approximately 2 basis points to 4.11% [1] - The one-month risk reversal for the Bloomberg Dollar Index rose to about 11.6 basis points, indicating stronger demand for put options compared to call options [1] International Monetary Policy - The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 7 to 2 to maintain interest rates, signaling caution regarding future rate cuts, which led to a decline in the British pound [1] - The GBP/USD fell to an intraday low of 1.3534, with swap traders expecting only one 25 basis point rate cut by the end of 2026 [1] - The Euro/USD decreased by 0.2% to 1.789, despite specific areas seeing buying activity, while fast money continued to sell euros, raising warnings for euro bulls [1] Currency Movements - The USD/JPY rose by 0.6% to 147.89, approaching the 200-day moving average of 148.67 [1] - The Canadian dollar fell by 0.2%, with the USD/CAD reported at 1.3796, although the Canadian dollar outperformed other G-10 currencies [1] - Upcoming important data includes retail sales figures scheduled for release on Friday [1]

美联储利率决议后，彭博美元指数触及2025年低点。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Currency options traders are currently more pessimistic about the US dollar's performance over the next year than at any time in the past, as indicated by a significant drop in the one-year risk reversal rate [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Investor Sentiment - The one-year risk reversal rate, which measures the cost of buying or selling a currency in the options market, has fallen to -27 basis points, indicating a strong preference for put options over call options [1] - This level is the most negative on record since Bloomberg began tracking this data in 2011, surpassing even the brief lows seen at the onset of market volatility triggered by the pandemic five years ago [1]

彭博美元指数跌至2024年1月以来最低。 ...

智通财经4月21日电，彭博美元指数跌至2024年1月以来最低。 ...