（来源：新华日报） 春风送岗，就业升温。江苏各地线上线下招聘会密集登场，新能源、智能制造、数字经济、现代服务业 等热门领域为求职者提供海量选择。从专场招聘到直播带岗，从就业指导到政策扶持，江苏多措并举打 通供需对接"最后一公里"，助力更多人在江苏稳稳就业、逐梦前行。 本报记者 朱丽 ...

美国经济正呈现出自疫情前以来最清晰的一组组合：通胀下降、就业稳定、增长扎实，重新点燃了"软着陆"或许触手可及的希望。 近期数据强化了这样一种判断：通胀可能在不引发经济衰退的情况下，逐步回落至美联储2%的目标附近。不过，政策制定者与预测机构仍对过早宣告胜 利保持谨慎。 | FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of ST. LOUIS | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Search FRED Data ... | | | | | | | | RELEASE CALENDAR | TOOLS V | SEMS | BLOG | ABOUT V | | Home > Categories > Money, Banking, & Finance > Interest Rates > FRB Rates - discount, fed funds, primary credit | | | | | | | | & Federal Funds Effective Rate (FEDFUNDS) | | | | | | | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that inflation in the U.S. is currently not a significant concern, with CPI and core CPI showing a downward trend, indicating a potential for the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious stance on interest rate cuts [2][9][38] - In January, the CPI year-on-year decreased from 2.7% to 2.4%, slightly below expectations of 2.5%, while core CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.5%, also meeting expectations [17][9] - The article suggests that the largest risk to inflation may come from potential additional fiscal stimulus due to pressures from the midterm elections, rather than from the economic feedback loop [2][9] Group 2 - Employment data for January showed a significant increase in non-farm payrolls, with 130,000 jobs added, surpassing expectations of 65,000, indicating a recovery trend in the labor market [26][33] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, better than the expected 4.4%, reflecting strong demand in the labor market [33][26] - The article notes that while employment growth is improving, the structure of job creation remains concerning, with a heavy reliance on the education and healthcare sectors, which contributed 137,000 jobs, accounting for 105% of the total job growth [27][14] Group 3 - The article highlights that the combination of "employment recovery and soft inflation" may influence the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts, suggesting that if inflation continues to decline and employment stabilizes, the Fed may have more flexibility in its policy [6][7] - The market's expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with futures pricing indicating a higher likelihood of cuts later in the year, particularly in July and December [38][38] - The article emphasizes that the current economic indicators suggest a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve, as the labor market shows signs of recovery without significant inflationary pressures [6][7]

Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 65,000, marking the highest increase since April 2025[7] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4% and the previous rate, indicating a new low since September 2025[7] - The labor force participation rate was 62.5%, slightly above the previous value of 62.4%[7] Inflation Data - The January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, below expectations and the previous value, continuing a three-month decline since September 2025[3] - The core CPI remained stable at a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, matching market expectations, while the overall CPI month-on-month increase was only 0.2%[3][4] - The "super core" CPI recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.59%, significantly higher than the previous month's 0.23%, indicating persistent service inflation[4][6] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, asset prices were volatile, with U.S. stocks initially rising before declining, and bond yields fluctuating[9] - After the CPI release, market expectations for interest rate cuts fluctuated, with the implied number of cuts for 2026 rising from 2.36 to 2.53 times[10] Economic Outlook - The combination of strong employment data and weak CPI suggests a complex economic landscape, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy in the short term[11] - Significant changes in policy are anticipated post the May 2026 Federal Reserve chair transition, which may open up more room for rate cuts later in the year[12] - The market currently anticipates approximately 2.5 rate cuts for 2026, aligning with economic fundamentals but potentially underestimating challenges to the Fed's independence[12]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Analysis - Inflation showed a month-on-month increase, with China's CPI rising by 0.2% in January, and a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year [2][6] - The PPI also rose by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, with the growth rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. Year-on-year, PPI decreased by 1.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [2][6] - In the U.S., January's non-farm payrolls added 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 70,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025, with an hourly wage increase of 0.4% month-on-month [2][6] Group 2: Market Performance - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.09% to close at 4131.98 points, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.08%. Sector performance was mixed, with construction materials, non-ferrous metals, and oil and petrochemicals leading gains, while communication, media, and social services sectors saw the largest declines [3][7] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets remained low, with total transactions below 2 trillion yuan [3][7] - In the futures market, the basis for IC and IM contracts increased, with both trading volume and open interest for IH and IM contracts rising [3][7] Group 3: Sector Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector showed signs of recovery, with previous strategies indicating that stabilization in this sector could drive further increases in the CSI 500 Index. Continuous monitoring of this trend is advised [4][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector has recovered. If the non - ferrous metals sector stabilizes and rebounds, it will drive the CSI 500 index to rise further, and its sustainability should be monitored [3]. - Before the holiday, trading tends to be cautious, and the market is expected to maintain a pattern of volume - shrinking repair [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Economy - In January, China's CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, with the core CPI up 0.8% year - on - year; PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, rising for four consecutive months, with the year - on - year decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points to 1.4% [1]. - In the US in January, the non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 70,000. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025, and the hourly wage increased by 0.4% month - on - month. However, job growth was concentrated in a few industries, with the healthcare sector adding 124,000 jobs [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - A - share major indices fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.09% to close at 4131.98 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.08%. Sector indices showed mixed performance. Building materials, non - ferrous metals, and petroleum and petrochemical industries led the gains, while communication, media, and social services industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was less than 2 trillion yuan [2][13]. - Overseas, the three major US stock indices closed slightly lower, with the Nasdaq down 0.16% at 23066.47 points [2]. 3.3 Futures Market - In the futures market, the basis of IC and IM rebounded, with near - month contracts at a premium. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume and open interest of IH and IM increased simultaneously [2][14]. - The trading volume of IF was 62,400, a decrease of 2,853; the open interest was 281,980, a decrease of 464. The trading volume of IH was 30,833, an increase of 1,354; the open interest was 101,315, an increase of 254. The trading volume of IC was 101,790, an increase of 7,140; the open interest was 294,295, a decrease of 1,888. The trading volume of IM was 133,571, an increase of 401; the open interest was 380,005, an increase of 1,372 [14]. - For the basis of futures contracts: for IF, the basis of the current - month contract was 2.38, a decrease of 1.52; for IH, it was 3.14, a decrease of 2.25; for IC, it was 16.59, an increase of 14.03; for IM, it was 20.69, an increase of 16.39 [41]. - For the inter - delivery spread of futures contracts: for the spread between the next - month and the current - month contracts, the spread of IF was - 1.40, an increase of 2.80; the spread of IH was - 0.20, a decrease of 1.00; the spread of IC was - 6.00, an increase of 12.20; the spread of IM was - 19.20, an increase of 6.40 [45].

Core Viewpoint - Zhengzhou's Talent Exchange Center is hosting 14 recruitment events from now until the end of March, aimed at providing job opportunities for job seekers [1] Group 1: Recruitment Events - The recruitment fairs will focus on key industries such as intelligent manufacturing, biomedicine, and high-end equipment, inviting high-tech, specialized, and innovative enterprises to participate [1] - The events will feature quality positions in areas like technology research and development, supply chain management, and technological innovation, aiming to match high-level and skilled talents with industry needs [1] - The recruitment targets include recent graduates, returning migrant workers, skilled talents, and job changers, addressing the employment needs of various groups [1] Group 2: Event Format and Services - The recruitment fairs will offer a diverse range of job options by gathering quality enterprises from multiple industries [1] - The events will integrate online and offline approaches, including live-streaming job opportunities, creating a "face-to-face + screen-to-screen" interaction model [1] - During the events, one-stop services such as job recommendations, policy interpretations, and employment guidance will be provided to enhance job-seeking efficiency [1] Group 3: Event Schedule - The recruitment event schedule includes: - February 27: Comprehensive talent recruitment fair - March 3, 4: Specialized recruitment fairs - March 6: "Chasing Dreams in the New Era" themed recruitment fair - March 10, 11: Specialized recruitment fairs - March 13: Comprehensive talent recruitment fair - March 17, 18: Specialized recruitment fairs - March 20: Comprehensive talent recruitment fair - March 24, 25: Specialized recruitment fairs - March 27: Comprehensive talent recruitment fair - March 31: Specialized recruitment fair - The events will be held at the Zhengzhou Talent Building, located at 169 Longhai West Road, 3rd Floor [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, after the previous sharp fluctuations, the volatility of the precious metals market may decline. The US employment and inflation data this week will be the core variables. If the slowdown in employment and inflation is further verified, gold and silver may have a chance to make up for lost ground [2]. - In the medium to long term, the actual impact of Wash's election as the Fed Chairman on the interest - rate policy path may be relatively limited. As market sentiment calms down, the precious metals market may return to the pricing framework dominated by macro and fundamentals. If the cooling trend of inflation and employment data continues, the logic of bottom - fishing in the precious metals market still holds [2]. - The support range for London gold is $4,700 - $4,800 per ounce, and the resistance range is $5,200 - $5,300 per ounce. The support range for London silver is $65 - $70 per ounce, and the resistance range is $90 - $95 per ounce [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 1,125.94 yuan per gram, up 35.8 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 20,873 yuan per kilogram, up 2,074 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 158,759 lots, down 5,081 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver are 9,210 lots, down 38 lots [2]. - The main contract trading volume of Shanghai Gold is 331,307 lots, down 163,435 lots; the main contract trading volume of Shanghai Silver is 1,015,255 lots, down 276,289 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold is 104,052 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver is 318,546 kilograms, down 31,354 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 1,116.02 yuan, up 22.17 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver is 19,595 yuan, up 2,485 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 9.92 yuan per gram, down 13.65 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 1,278 yuan per gram, up 411 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings are 1,076.23 tons, down 1.72 tons; the SLV Silver ETF holdings are 16,191.09 tons, down 56.36 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 165,604 contracts, down 39,792 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CFTC are 25,877 contracts, up 2,174 contracts [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1,302.80 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 32,056 tons, up 482 tons [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1,345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver is 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 97.61, down 0.35; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.88, down 0.01 [2]. - The VIX volatility index is 17.76, down 4.01; the CBOE gold volatility index is 33.96, down 1.57 [2]. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price is 66.03, down 0.00; the gold - silver ratio is 4.44, up [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index reached 57.3, the highest level in six months. The 1 - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, the lowest level in a year [2]. - China's central bank's gold reserves have increased for 15 consecutive months. As of the end of January 2026, the gold reserve scale was 74.19 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 ounces [2]. - US President Trump signed an executive order threatening to impose tariffs on countries that buy goods and services from sanctioned Iran, which took effect on February 7 [2]. - The US announced a temporary trade agreement framework reached with India. India will cancel or reduce tariffs on US industrial products, various foods and agricultural products, and the US will reduce the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on Indian goods from 25% to 18% [2]. - The nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US in Oman ended, and the two sides reached a consensus on continuing the dialogue. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that this round of consultations was a "good start" [2]. - Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson said he was "cautiously optimistic" about the US economic outlook, suggesting that strong productivity growth is expected to help inflation fall back to the central bank's 2% target [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - February 10, 21:30, US January retail sales data [2]. - February 11, 21:30, US January non - farm payrolls data [2]. - February 13, 21:30, US January CPI data [2].

Domestic Demand - Domestic travel demand is steadily increasing, with subway passenger volume up 8.8% compared to the same period in 2024, and domestic flight numbers averaging 14,500, a 1.6% increase year-on-year[2] - Movie ticket revenue has decreased by 37.2% year-on-year, averaging 62.245 million yuan per day[2] - Passenger car sales in January were 679,000 units, down 31.7% from the previous year[2] External Demand - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1993.2, showing a marginal decline but significantly higher than the previous year[2] - The China Export Container Freight Index averaged 1122.2, down 4.5% week-on-week and 16.4% year-on-year[2] - Port cargo throughput reached 281.597 million tons, a 25.5% increase compared to the same period in 2024[2] Production Sector - The operating rate of blast furnaces increased by 0.53 percentage points to 79.55%[2] - The operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires decreased by 2.08 percentage points to 72.76%[2] - PTA production increased by 35,500 tons to 1.4639 million tons, with an operating rate of 76.29%[2] Price Trends - Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains low, with pork prices down 1.12% week-on-week and vegetable prices down 1.46%[3][4] - Producer Price Index (PPI) shows significant increases in coking coal and coke prices, while non-ferrous metals have adjusted downwards due to a stronger dollar and seasonal demand decline[4] Monetary Policy - The central bank's reverse repurchase operations netted 756 billion yuan this week, with SHIBOR rates showing a seasonal decline[5] - The yield curve for government bonds has flattened, with the 30-year yield at 2.2510% and the 10-year yield at 1.8102%[5] International Context - U.S. consumer confidence index rose to 57.3, with one-year inflation expectations dropping to 3.5%, the lowest in 13 months[5] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 52.6%, indicating a return to expansion, with new orders and production indices showing significant growth[7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates is not a sign of stability but rather an indication of uncertainty, suggesting a cautious approach amidst various economic pressures [1][3][12]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Inflation remains high, indicating that the Fed has not fully tamed it, with a significant distance from the 2% target [3]. - The job market shows signs of weakness, with stable unemployment rates that may not be sustainable, raising concerns about economic growth [3][10]. - The Fed faces a dilemma: easing policies could reignite inflation, while tightening could stifle fragile employment recovery and risk recession [3][12]. Group 2: Internal Fed Dynamics - The presence of two dissenting votes advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut highlights internal divisions within the Fed, reflecting differing views on inflation and economic risks [5][12]. - The Fed's current stance is characterized by a lack of consensus, leading to increased uncertainty regarding future interest rate movements [6][14]. Group 3: Global Implications - The Fed's pause in rate adjustments has global ramifications, particularly for countries with significant dollar-denominated debt, which may face increased repayment pressures [8][10]. - A prolonged high-interest rate environment in the U.S. could attract capital back to the U.S., potentially leading to capital outflows and currency depreciation in emerging markets [8][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The Fed's decision-making will heavily depend on upcoming economic data, particularly regarding inflation, employment, and financial market stability [10][12]. - The current economic indicators suggest a precarious balance, with the Fed needing to navigate between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth [12][14].