1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 9 percentage points from the previous period to 37%. Most of the indicator quantiles declined, with only the quantiles of allocation disk strength, policy spread, commodity price ratio, and market spread rising slightly. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 15%, and the trading heat quantile average decreased significantly [15][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1. This period's micro - trading thermometer reading dropped to 37% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 9 percentage points to 37%. Indicators with large declines included TL/T long - short ratio, fund duration, and 1/10Y Treasury turnover rate, with quantiles decreasing by 55, 41, and 11 percentage points respectively. Only the quantiles of allocation disk strength, policy spread, commodity price ratio, and market spread rose slightly. Currently, the only indicator with high congestion is the 30/10Y Treasury turnover rate [15]. 3.2. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range dropped to 15% - Among 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 3 (15%), in the neutral range decreased to 5 (25%), and in the cold range increased to 12 (60%). The TL/T long - short ratio and fund duration both dropped from the neutral range to the cold range, and the fund's ultra - long - term bond buying volume dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range [20]. - The trading heat quantile average decreased significantly. In trading heat, the quantiles of TL/T long - short ratio and 1/10Y Treasury turnover rate decreased by 55 and 11 percentage points, driving the trading heat quantile down 16 percentage points. In institutional behavior indicators, the fund duration quantile dropped 41 percentage points, and most other indicator quantiles also declined. Only the quantiles of allocation disk strength and listed company wealth management buying volume rose by 12 and 1 percentage points, and the institutional behavior quantile average decreased 12 percentage points. The market and policy spread quantiles rebounded 3 and 8 percentage points respectively, and the spread quantile average increased 6 percentage points. The commodity price ratio quantile rose 7 percentage points, driving the price ratio quantile average up 2 percentage points [20]. 3.2.1. TL/T long - short ratio decreased significantly - In trading heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 50%, in the neutral range dropped to 17%, and in the cold range rose to 33%. The TL/T long - short ratio quantile dropped 55 percentage points to 14% and moved from the neutral to the cold range. Other indicator quantiles mostly declined, with the 1/10Y Treasury turnover rate, full - market turnover rate, and institutional leverage quantiles decreasing by 11, 9, and 2 percentage points respectively [23]. 3.2.2. Fund duration decreased rapidly - In institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range dropped to 0%, in the neutral range remained at 25%, and in the cold range rose to 75%. The fund duration quantile dropped 41 percentage points to 18% and moved from the neutral to the cold range. The fund's ultra - long - term bond buying volume quantile dropped 8 percentage points to 69% and moved from the over - heated to the neutral range. Most other indicator quantiles also declined, with only the quantiles of allocation disk strength and listed company wealth management buying volume rising slightly [26]. 3.2.3. The policy spread quantile dropped 8 percentage points - The policy spread narrowed by 2bp to 2bp, and the corresponding quantile rose 8 percentage points to 55%, remaining in the neutral range. The credit spread widened by 3bp to 60bp, the Agricultural Development - CDB spread remained flat at 1bp, the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread narrowed by 2bp to 1bp. The average of the three spreads widened slightly by 1bp to 20bp, and its quantile rebounded 3 percentage points to 50%, still in the neutral range [31]. 3.2.4. The commodity price ratio quantile rose slightly - The proportion of price - ratio indicators in the cold range remained at 100%. The commodity price ratio quantile rose 7 percentage points to 27%, and the quantiles of other indicators changed little [34].

Group 1: Overall Market Conditions - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer this period has rebounded to 34%, a 5 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The turnover rates of 1Y and 30Y treasury bonds increased, while that of 10Y treasury bonds decreased. The percentile values of 30/10Y and 1/10Y treasury bond turnover rates increased by 24 and 86 percentage points respectively, and the percentile value of the TL/T long - short ratio also increased by 13 percentage points. The percentile values of institutional leverage, allocation disk strength, market spread, and listed company wealth management purchase volume increased slightly. The percentile values of fund divergence, stock - bond ratio, and real estate ratio decreased by 14, 10, and 10 percentage points respectively. Currently, the only indicator with high congestion is the long - term treasury bond trading volume ratio [14]. Group 2: Proportion of Indicators in Different Zones - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated zone remains at 15%. Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated zone remains 3 (15%), the number in the neutral zone increased to 4 (20%), and the number in the cold zone decreased to 13 (65%). The 1/10Y treasury bond turnover rate rose from the cold zone to the over - heated zone, and the fund - rural commercial bank purchase volume dropped from the over - heated zone to the cold zone [19]. Group 3: Transaction Heat Indicators - The average percentile value of transaction heat increased significantly. The percentile values of 30/10Y and 1/10Y treasury bond turnover rates increased by 24 and 86 percentage points respectively, and the percentile value of the TL/T long - short ratio increased by 13 percentage points, driving the average percentile value of transaction heat up by 21 percentage points [4]. - In the transaction heat - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated zone rose to 33%, the proportion in the neutral zone remained at 17%, and the proportion in the cold zone dropped to 50%. The percentile values of 30/10Y and 1/10Y treasury bond turnover rates increased by 21 and 86 percentage points respectively. The latter rose from the cold zone to the over - heated zone, while the former remained in the neutral zone [22]. Group 4: Institutional Behavior Indicators - The average percentile value of institutional behavior decreased by 2 percentage points. The percentile values of fund divergence and fund - rural commercial bank purchase volume decreased by 14 and 10 percentage points respectively [4]. - In the institutional behavior - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated zone dropped to 13%, the proportion in the neutral zone rose to 25%, and the proportion in the cold zone remained at 63%. The percentile value of the fund - rural commercial bank purchase volume dropped by 10 percentage points to 61% and moved from the over - heated zone to the neutral zone [26]. Group 5: Spread Indicators - The average percentile value of spreads increased slightly by 1 percentage point. The market spread increased by 8 percentage points, and the policy spread decreased by 5 percentage points [4]. - The policy spread widened slightly from 11bp to 13bp, and its percentile value decreased by 5 percentage points to 10%, remaining in the cold zone. The credit spread narrowed by 4bp to 50bp, the agricultural development - state - owned development spread widened slightly by 1bp to -1bp, and the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread remained basically flat at 2bp. The average of the three spreads narrowed slightly from 18bp to 17bp, and its percentile value increased by 8 percentage points to 63%, remaining in the neutral zone [7]. Group 6: Ratio Indicators - The average percentile value of ratios decreased by 5 percentage points. The stock - bond and real estate ratio percentile values both decreased by 10 percentage points [4]. - All ratio - related indicators are in the cold zone. The stock - bond and real estate ratio percentile values decreased by 10 percentage points, the commodity ratio percentile value increased slightly by 1 percentage point, and the consumer goods ratio percentile value remained at 0% [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer continued to decline by 4 percentage points to 46%, with most indicators falling to varying degrees, except for the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume percentile [2][14]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 25%, with 5 indicators in the over - heated range, 5 in the neutral range, and 10 in the cold range [3][18]. - Only the average percentile of trading heat increased slightly by 2 percentage points, while the average percentiles of institutional behavior, spread, and comparison ratio decreased [4][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Micro - trading Thermometer Reading - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer continued to decline by 4 percentage points to 46%. Most indicators fell, while the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume percentile increased. High - congestion indicators include the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and the long - term Treasury bond trading volume ratio [2][14]. 3.2. Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 25%. Among 20 micro - indicators, 5 were in the over - heated range, 5 in the neutral range, and 10 in the cold range. The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate moved from the cold to the neutral range, while the fund duration and policy spread moved from the neutral to the cold range, and the allocation disk strength moved from the over - heated to the cold range [3][18]. 3.2.1. 1/10Y Treasury Bond Turnover Rate - In the trading heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 50%, the proportion in the neutral range rose to 33%, and the proportion in the cold range fell to 17%. The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate percentile increased by 37 percentage points to 54% and moved from the cold to the neutral range, while other indicators such as the TL/T long - short ratio, the whole - market turnover rate, and the institutional leverage percentile declined [5][21]. 3.2.2. Fund Duration - In the institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 25%, the proportion in the neutral range decreased to 25%, and the proportion in the cold range increased to 50%. Except for the 10 - percentage - point increase in the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume percentile, other indicators fell. The fund duration percentile decreased by 31 percentage points to 37% and moved from the neutral to the cold range, and the allocation disk strength percentile decreased by 33 percentage points to 39% and moved from the over - heated to the cold range [6][24]. 3.2.3. Policy Spread - The 3 - year Treasury bond yield increased significantly, and the policy spread widened from 1bp to 11bp, with the percentile decreasing by 34 percentage points to 13% and moving from the neutral to the cold range. The credit spread narrowed slightly by 2bp to 51bp, the Agricultural Development - China Development spread remained at 4bp, and the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened by 3bp to 5bp. The average spread of the three remained at 20bp, and its percentile increased slightly by 1 percentage point to 46%, still in the neutral range [7][31]. 3.2.4. Commodity Comparison Ratio Percentile - The proportion of comparison ratio indicators in the cold range remained at 100%. The stock - bond and commodity comparison ratio percentiles decreased by 4 and 1 percentage points to 23% and 0% respectively, while the real - estate comparison ratio percentile remained basically the same as the previous period [8][34].