Industry Overview - The total express delivery volume for the first eight weeks of 2026 reached 32.734 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.40% [1][2] - The competition landscape in the express delivery industry is accelerating differentiation, shifting from quantity competition to quality competition as the industry pursues high-quality development [1][4] Company Performance - In January, the express delivery volumes were as follows: YTO Express at 2.943 billion pieces, Shentong Express at 2.540 billion pieces, Yunda at 2.231 billion pieces, and SF Express at 1.386 billion pieces [3] - The growth rates for January were led by YTO Express at 29.75%, followed by Shentong Express at 25.57%, and Yunda at 10.83% [3] - SF Express saw an increase in average single ticket price to 14.72 yuan, up by 0.91 yuan month-on-month, indicating a shift from scale-driven to value-driven growth [3] Investment Recommendations - SF Express is recommended as a leading comprehensive express logistics company, expected to enter a new development phase with improved cash flow and operational strategies [4] - The company is anticipated to benefit from the rapid growth of the instant retail sector, with its same-city delivery business poised for strategic opportunities [4] - The express delivery industry is expected to see continued recovery in profitability due to price adjustments initiated since August 2025, with a focus on leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the logistics and express delivery sector [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the express delivery companies have shown varied performance in January, with significant year-on-year revenue growth for companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express, while SF Express experienced a slight decline in revenue [1]. - The report emphasizes the recovery of the logistics sector post-Chinese New Year, with expectations for sustained high growth in business volume for SF Express in February due to the delayed peak season [1]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express, which are expected to continue expanding their market share and profitability, while also monitoring Shentong Express for its performance elasticity [1]. Summary by Sections January Performance Data - SF Express reported a total revenue of 26.86 billion yuan in January, a year-on-year increase of 2.22%, with express logistics revenue at 20.40 billion yuan, down 1.77% [1]. - YTO Express achieved a revenue of 6.61 billion yuan, up 23.82%, with a business volume of 2.943 billion parcels, increasing by 29.75% [1]. - Shentong Express's revenue reached 5.973 billion yuan, a growth of 43.26%, with a business volume of 2.540 billion parcels, up 25.57% [1]. - Yunda's revenue was 4.802 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.01% increase, with a business volume of 2.231 billion parcels, up 10.83% [1]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a divergence in growth rates among major express delivery companies, with YTO leading in business volume growth [1]. - The report suggests that the industry is entering a seasonal slowdown post-Chinese New Year, but the focus on high-quality development remains unchanged [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends ZTO Express and YTO Express for their continued advantages in the market, while also suggesting to keep an eye on Shentong Express for potential performance rebounds [1]. - SF Express is highlighted for its management adjustments and potential bottom-fishing opportunities [1].

春节假期出行旺盛，看好全年表现 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 24 日│中国内地 动态点评 交通运输 增持 (维持) 证券研究报告 交通运输 | 沈晓峰 | 研究员 | | --- | --- | | SAC No. S0570516110001 | shenxiaofeng@htsc.com | | SFC No. BCG366 | +(86) 21 2897 2088 | | 林霞颖 | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570518090003 | linxiaying@htsc.com | | SFC No. BIX840 | +(86) 10 6321 1166 | | 黄凡洋，CFA | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570519090001 | huangfanyang@htsc.com | | SFC No. BQK283 | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | 耿岱琳 联系人 gengdailin@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 行业走势图 (10) (2) 6 13 21 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 Feb-26 (%) 交通运输 沪深 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the shift in the express delivery industry from price competition to service and value competition, driven by high-quality development [1] - The company is focusing on improving network efficiency and service quality, optimizing package structure, and adhering to lean management principles [1] - The company aims to create a long-term stable and leading service system, guiding balanced network development and establishing a high-quality express service network [1]

根據不同投票權架構，我們的股本包括A類普通股及B類普通股。對於需要股東投票的所有事 項，A類普通股持有人每股可投1票，而B類普通股持有人則每股可投10票。股東及有意投資者 務請留意投資不同投票權架構公司的潛在風險。我們的美國存託股（每股美國存託股代表一股A 類普通股）於美國紐約證券交易所上市，代碼為ZTO。 ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. 中通快遞（開曼）有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限責任公司） （股份代號：2057） 自願公告 中通快遞召開2026年全國網絡工作會議 本公告乃由中通快遞（開曼）有限公司（「中通」或「本公司」）自願作出。 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不會就本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴 該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 賴梅松董事長感謝中通網絡合作夥伴和全體員工過去一年的信任和支持。我們堅 信，快遞行業依然是充滿希望的朝陽產業，行業正處於從高數量向高質量發展轉 變，從單一快遞向綜合物流轉變的關鍵時期。在高質量發展的賽道上，中通要 做「清醒者、引領 ...

Core Viewpoint - The national postal work conference has initiated measures to address differentiated delivery fees, aiming to rectify unreasonable management practices in the express delivery industry and promote a balanced distribution of interests among headquarters, franchisees, and couriers [1][4]. Group 1: Issues in the Express Delivery Industry - The problems arising from differentiated delivery fees have become evident, as this model leads to cost transfer from express companies to delivery points and couriers, resulting in a vicious cycle of concentrated business volume with compressed profits [3]. - The inability of delivery fees to adequately support operational costs has caused financial difficulties for delivery points and reduced income for couriers, leading to service disruptions in some areas [4]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The government's intervention is expected to sever the cost transfer chain, shifting industry competition from price wars to service quality improvement, which is a direct benefit for delivery points and couriers [4]. - If implemented effectively, the policy could clarify cost accounting for delivery points, stabilize courier incomes, and reduce personnel turnover, thereby strengthening the express delivery network [4]. Group 3: Operational Solutions - The current trend towards shared delivery models is gaining traction as it integrates resources and reduces costs, with the "Kuai Bao" shared delivery system being highlighted for its comprehensive functionality and reliability [6][12]. - The shared delivery system offers significant cost reductions by unifying sorting and delivery processes across multiple brands, thus lowering operational costs at the end [6][12]. - Enhanced operational efficiency is achieved through large-scale delivery and targeted resource integration, resulting in increased operational efficiency at delivery points [7]. Group 4: System Features - The "Kuai Bao" system supports seamless integration with major express brands, eliminating the need for multiple system switches and enhancing resource utilization [13]. - It provides comprehensive scanning coverage and real-time data monitoring, ensuring accurate tracking of logistics and minimizing disputes over lost items [13][14]. - The system includes features for handling special items and offers multiple notification channels to reduce communication costs and improve customer experience [14]. Group 5: Future Outlook - As the differentiated delivery fee reform progresses, the express delivery industry is expected to transition towards high-quality development, encouraging delivery points to enhance operational efficiency and service quality [14].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is experiencing a more relaxed competitive environment, with regulatory bodies actively intervening to support healthy industry development. This trend is reflected in multiple meetings held by the State Post Bureau in November, indicating a shift towards high-quality development [1][3] - The leading companies in the industry, such as Zhongtong and Yuantong, are expected to see improved profitability, with strong performance anticipated in Q4 2025, which will support valuations for 2026 [1][3] Core Insights - **Profitability Improvement**: From July to October, the average revenue per package has increased, with Shentong and Yunda seeing a rise of approximately 0.2 yuan, and Yuantong increasing by about 0.15 yuan. October's package profit is estimated to be over 0.04 yuan higher than Q3, leading to expectations of significantly higher profits in Q4 compared to Q3 [4][6][7] - **Head Companies' Advantages**: Leading companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong are growing at rates significantly above the industry average due to their superior product structure and service quality. The importance of high-quality service is increasing, enhancing the competitive edge and valuation premium of these top firms [4][8] Regulatory Impact - Regulatory changes have significantly influenced the express delivery industry. The State Post Bureau has been actively discussing and determining average industry costs to support anti-involution efforts, ensuring prices return to reasonable levels and avoiding long-term low-price competition [5][9] Future Outlook - **Investment Opportunities**: The express delivery industry is expected to present clear investment opportunities in 2026, particularly among segmented companies like Tongda System, Jitu, and comprehensive logistics leader Shunfeng. Jitu's strategy has shifted from aggressive expansion to stable operations, contributing positively to its performance in China [2][10] - **Emerging Markets**: Jitu has shown remarkable performance in Southeast Asia, with a volume increase of approximately 78% in Q3 and an overall growth rate of 65% for the first three quarters. The online penetration rate in Southeast Asia is rising, and key clients like TikTok are driving growth [10][11] - **Shunfeng's Adjustments**: Shunfeng's performance in Q2 and Q3 did not meet expectations, but the company is adjusting its strategy, focusing on profitability rather than scale. Improvements are expected to be reflected in the financial reports for the first half of 2026 [2][13] Conclusion - The express delivery industry is entering a new phase characterized by improved competition, profitability, and regulatory support. Leading companies are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, while emerging markets present significant growth opportunities. The overall outlook for 2026 remains positive, with expectations of enhanced profitability and valuation recovery across the sector [1][2][3][4][5][10][13]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery sector is experiencing significant growth driven by emerging e-commerce trends, particularly in lower-tier markets, and is shifting towards lighter and smaller packages [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - New business models such as down-market e-commerce are becoming the main growth drivers in the express delivery sector [1] - There is a notable trend towards lighter and smaller packages within the industry [1] - Anti-involution policies are effectively being implemented, with various regions establishing price floors and penalty mechanisms to curb chaotic low-price competition [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The industry landscape is further optimizing, with leading express delivery companies focusing on creating differentiated competitive advantages [1] - High-quality development will continue to be the primary direction for future growth in the sector [1] - The market concentration is expected to continue increasing, with leading companies likely to see their market shares stabilize or even rise [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - By 2026, the 2B logistics sector is anticipated to benefit from a more pronounced demand boost, with positive trends in volume and pricing [1] - The performance potential of leading companies is expected to be released as the competitive landscape continues to improve and consolidate [1]

Core Insights - The express delivery volume in China has reached a record high, surpassing 180 billion packages for the first time, indicating significant growth in the logistics sector [1][8] - Major companies like JD, Jitu, and Zhongtong are intensifying their investments in automation and technology, shifting the competition from price wars to value wars [1][5] Industry Growth - As of November 30, 2025, China's express delivery business volume reached 1800 billion packages, exceeding the previous year's total of 1750.8 billion [1] - The express delivery volume has been steadily increasing, with a monthly average exceeding 160 billion packages and a peak daily volume of 7.77 billion packages [8] Automation and Efficiency - The 1800 billionth package was delivered using nearly fully automated processes, showcasing advancements in logistics technology [4] - JD Logistics plans to purchase 3 million robots, 1 million unmanned vehicles, and 100,000 drones over the next five years to enhance delivery efficiency [5] - Zhongtong has deployed over 2900 unmanned delivery vehicles, operating in more than 250 cities and delivering over 200,000 packages daily [6] Cost Reduction - The introduction of unmanned vehicles has led to significant cost savings, with Zhongtong reporting a 50% reduction in overall transportation costs [5] - Jitu's unmanned vehicles have reduced per-package costs by over 10% and human labor costs by more than 50% [7] Industry Quality Development - The industry is moving towards high-quality development, with a focus on technology investment to reduce costs and expand high-value services [8][9] - The average express delivery price has stabilized and increased by 0.5% in the third quarter of this year, reflecting a shift away from aggressive price competition [8] Global Expansion - Companies are exporting their efficient logistics practices internationally, with initiatives in Brazil demonstrating significant improvements in cross-border logistics efficiency [9]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057, ZTO.US), highlighting a positive outlook for the company's financial performance in the upcoming quarters [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 5.3% year-on-year and 30.2% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The net profit per ticket rose by 6.7 cents to 0.26 yuan, driven by a combination of factors including price adjustments and cost management [1] - The increase in express delivery revenue per ticket was 3.6 cents quarter-on-quarter, while transportation and sorting costs per ticket increased by 1.6 cents [1] - Other costs per ticket rose by 1 cent, leading to a gross profit increase of 1 cent per ticket [1] - The effective tax rate per ticket decreased by 4 cents due to tax rebates, and fair value changes increased by 1 cent, contributing to the net profit increase [1] Industry Outlook - The industry is undergoing a strategic shift towards a dual focus on quality and quantity, favoring companies with scale advantages, high service quality, operational efficiency, and competitive costs [1] - ZTO Express is expected to benefit from its strong cost control, service capabilities, and high profitability, positioning it well to capture more market share [1] - By 2026, the express delivery sector may experience a return to differentiated growth, with ZTO's advantages likely to become more pronounced [1] - The company anticipates a simultaneous release of volume and profit, projecting a net profit growth rate of 10% to 15% year-on-year for 2026 [1]