国债期货研发报告 国债期货 11 月报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 债市情绪修复，但利空因素尚存 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 1 月期债盘面先下后上，中旬起债市情绪有所修复。截止 1 月 30 日收 盘，TS、TF、T、TL 主力合约月内分别-0.05%、+0.15%、+0.45%、+0.48%。 期债盘面估值多数时间处于中性偏低水平，按中债估值与期债结算价计算， 截止 1 月 29 日收盘，TS、TF、T、TL 主力合约 IRR 分别为 1.3258%、 1.4564%、1.3652%、2.4065% 【市场展望】 综合来看，1 月公布的月度宏观数据有喜有忧。外需带动生产端韧性较 足，但内需端改善较为有限；"再通胀"进展得到确认，但价格结构上的分 化依旧明显；企业部门融资需求继续回升，但受制于收入预期与房价，居民 部门延续"缩表"态势。与此同时，央行对银行间市场流动性的呵护态度保 持不变且明确年内总量宽松还有一定空间，这与去年一季度央行流动性管理 紧平衡存在较大不同。不过，短期内总量宽松落地概率或不高。 后续而言，考虑到基本面现状与央行对流动性的呵护，债市中短端风险 较为可控，但在政策利率调降预期 ...

Policy Highlights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [1] - A targeted reserve requirement ratio cut to 0% for auto finance and financial leasing companies aims to enhance credit capacity in the automotive and equipment renewal sectors [1] - Policy interest rates were lowered by 0.1%, with the 7-day reverse repo rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is expected to drive down the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2] Financial Regulatory Measures - The Financial Regulatory Administration approved 6.7 trillion yuan in "white list" loans to support the construction and delivery of 16 million residential units [5] - A package of policies for small and micro enterprises was introduced, focusing on increasing credit supply, reducing costs, improving efficiency, and optimizing the environment [9] - Measures to stabilize the stock market include expanding insurance capital market participation with an additional 60 billion yuan for long-term investment [7] Capital Market Reforms - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is deepening reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market to enhance institutional inclusivity and support mergers and acquisitions [12] - A high-quality development action plan for public funds was released, emphasizing the binding of fund and investor interests [13] - The introduction of a risk response plan aims to enhance the resilience of A-share listed companies against external shocks [14] Market Outlook - The combination of monetary easing and structural optimization is expected to stabilize market expectations and support long-term economic transformation, potentially leading to a slow bull market in A-shares [15] - The introduction of 8,000 billion yuan in technology innovation re-loans is anticipated to lower financing costs for tech companies, making them a core growth point in the market [17] - The public fund reform plan emphasizes long-term investment behavior, which is expected to reduce short-term volatility and enhance investor trust [18]