国债期货研发报告 国债期货 11 月报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 债市情绪修复，但利空因素尚存 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 1 月期债盘面先下后上，中旬起债市情绪有所修复。截止 1 月 30 日收 盘，TS、TF、T、TL 主力合约月内分别-0.05%、+0.15%、+0.45%、+0.48%。 期债盘面估值多数时间处于中性偏低水平，按中债估值与期债结算价计算， 截止 1 月 29 日收盘，TS、TF、T、TL 主力合约 IRR 分别为 1.3258%、 1.4564%、1.3652%、2.4065% 【市场展望】 综合来看，1 月公布的月度宏观数据有喜有忧。外需带动生产端韧性较 足，但内需端改善较为有限；"再通胀"进展得到确认，但价格结构上的分 化依旧明显；企业部门融资需求继续回升，但受制于收入预期与房价，居民 部门延续"缩表"态势。与此同时，央行对银行间市场流动性的呵护态度保 持不变且明确年内总量宽松还有一定空间，这与去年一季度央行流动性管理 紧平衡存在较大不同。不过，短期内总量宽松落地概率或不高。 后续而言，考虑到基本面现状与央行对流动性的呵护，债市中短端风险 较为可控，但在政策利率调降预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The forum highlighted the evolving landscape of China's bond market, emphasizing the need for resilience and innovation amidst internal and external challenges, including an "asset shortage" and global economic uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Market Environment and Trends - China's bond market has surpassed 196 trillion yuan in scale, facing new norms such as "asset shortage" and wide fluctuations [1]. - The bond market is expected to continue expanding, focusing on serving the real economy and major national strategies, with a notable increase in foreign investment [4]. - The central economic work conference has proposed a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, prioritizing domestic demand as a key strategy for 2026 [4]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Financial Development - In 2025, China's economy is projected to grow by approximately 5%, with significant developments in the financial market, including a record daily trading volume in the stock market [5]. - The financial system is undergoing structural changes, with a shift from indirect financing to a more balanced mix of financial tools and institutions [6]. Group 3: Debt Risks and Policy Recommendations - Experts discussed the rising external vulnerabilities and the need to address internal debt issues, emphasizing the importance of understanding the macroeconomic context [7]. - Recommendations for managing debt risks include creating a favorable macro environment, aligning credit with efficiency, and exploring national macro asset-liability management [8]. Group 4: Institutional Strategy Adjustments - Financial institutions are adapting their strategies in response to market changes, focusing on asset allocation and investment logic [10]. - The shift towards "solid income+" products is evident, with a significant year-on-year growth of 39.5% in such funds by the end of Q3 [12]. - Institutions are encouraged to adopt a dynamic approach to asset management, balancing short-term liquidity with long-term investments [13].

Group 1 - The core message of the Central Political Bureau meeting on December 8 is to analyze and plan for the economic work in 2026, signaling a strong start for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The meeting emphasizes that the main economic and social development goals for 2025 will be successfully achieved, with a projected economic growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters of 2023, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year [2][3] - The meeting highlights the importance of achieving a good start for the "15th Five-Year Plan," which is seen as a critical period for solidifying the foundation for socialist modernization [4] Group 2 - The meeting outlines a "high requirement" approach for 2026, focusing on better coordination of domestic economic work and international trade, as well as enhancing policy foresight and collaboration [4] - It is expected that a more proactive macroeconomic policy mix and forward-looking structural reforms will support a stable economic start in 2026, laying a solid foundation for the 2035 modernization goals [5] - The work tone for 2026 is set to prioritize stability while seeking progress, emphasizing quality and efficiency in economic governance [6] Group 3 - The meeting specifies the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance [6] - Key areas of focus include maintaining domestic demand as the main driver, promoting innovation, and ensuring coordinated development while adhering to the "dual carbon" goals [6] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is anticipated to clarify how to effectively implement policy measures for a successful start to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that achieving a 5% growth target for 2024 is challenging due to complex domestic and international circumstances, highlighting the advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics [1][2] - Innovation has made significant progress, with China's share of the global electric vehicle market exceeding 70%, and half of the domestic integrated circuit companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board maintaining a research and development investment intensity of 20% [2][3] - The government work report sets a growth target of around 5%, reflecting the stable and resilient economic fundamentals of the country, supported by extraordinary macroeconomic policies [3]