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四季度主营炼厂成品油产量下降 2026年一季度有望反弹
进入四季度,主营炼厂检修、降负情况增多。10月份以来,镇海炼化、上海石化、广州石化及大榭石化 部分常减压装置陆续进入检修,云南石化、泉州炼厂11月中旬开始全厂检修,以上大型炼厂检修令主营 负荷承压。同时,由于国际冲突,少数主营炼厂原油供应有所缩减,华中、东北地区不分炼厂短期内降 低负荷,或个别炼厂部分装置暂停检修,拖累整体负荷呈现回落趋势。据统计,四季度主营炼厂开工率 均值80.87%,环比下降5.06个百分点。 数据来源:金联创 受炼厂负荷回落影响,四季度主营炼厂原油加工量及成品油产量走低。据统计,四季度主营炼厂原油加 工量合计12064.5万吨,环比下降4.68%,成品油产量合计7135.8万吨,环比下降5.87%。 分产品来看,四季度主营炼厂汽油产量2786.6万吨,环比下降5.32%;航煤产量1347.7万吨,环比下降 16.72%;因10月是柴油消费传统旺季,以及冬季部分地区置换负号期间供应局部偏紧,为保障供应稳 定性,柴油收率有所提高,令柴油降幅较小。据统计,四季度主营炼厂柴油产量为3001.5万吨,环比下 降0.59%。 数据来源:金联创 2026年一季度,前期检修炼厂陆续复工,其余炼厂暂未进入 ...
美国原油库存下降,对油价有所支撑 | 投研报告
Oil Market Overview - The average weekly price for Brent and WTI crude oil futures was $66.9 and $63.1 per barrel, reflecting a change of +$0.7 and -$0.2 from the previous week [1][2] - Total U.S. crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic petroleum reserve, and Cushing crude oil inventory were reported at 82 million, 42 million, 40 million, and 2 million barrels, with changes of -579, -601, +22, and +42 thousand barrels respectively [2][3] - U.S. crude oil production was 13.38 million barrels per day, an increase of +60 thousand barrels per day from the previous week [2][3] - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. was 411, down by 1 rig, while the active fracturing fleet was 167, down by 2 units [2][3] Refined Products Market - Average prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the U.S. were $89, $95, and $89 per barrel, with changes of +$1.6, +$0.5, and -$5.1 respectively [3][4] - U.S. gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories were reported at 22 million, 12 million, and 4 million barrels, with changes of -272, +234, and -45 thousand barrels respectively [3][4] - Production levels for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were 9.55 million, 5.33 million, and 1.96 million barrels per day, with changes of -26, +19, and -1 thousand barrels per day respectively [3][4] - Consumption levels for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were 8.84 million, 3.97 million, and 1.90 million barrels per day, with changes of -16, +27, and +7 thousand barrels per day respectively [3][4] Trade Dynamics - U.S. gasoline imports, exports, and net exports were 0.9 million, 1.02 million, and 0.93 million barrels per day, with changes of -16, +19, and +35 thousand barrels per day respectively [4] - U.S. diesel imports, exports, and net exports were 0.12 million, 1.15 million, and 1.03 million barrels per day, with changes of +2, -29, and -31 thousand barrels per day respectively [4] - U.S. jet fuel imports, exports, and net exports were 0.1 million, 0.22 million, and 0.12 million barrels per day, with changes of +7, -4, and -11 thousand barrels per day respectively [4] Related Companies - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC Services, Offshore Oil Engineering, and CNOOC Development [4]