【1月8日调查：欧佩克12月原油产量稳定，多因素影响市场】1月8日一项调查显示，欧佩克12月原油产 量保持稳定。虽委内瑞拉产量降至两年来最低点，但被伊拉克等成员国增产抵消。欧佩克日均产量略高 于2,900万桶，与上月基本持平。 受美国拦截扣押油轮施压策略影响，委内瑞拉日产量下降约14%，降 至83万桶。目前伦敦油价在每桶60美元上方波动，处五年来最低水平附近，挤压了欧佩克+成员国财政 空间。 在此不确定背景下，八个主要成员国本月再次同意一季度冻结产量，暂停去年大规模供应复苏 计划。12月增产最多的是伊拉克，日产量增加8万桶，达平均每日437万桶。 伊拉克产量大幅超过其议 定的欧佩克+配额，不过该组织数据显示其仍符合目标。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

格隆汇1月7日｜全球原油产量在每日8000万桶以上，主要生产国包括美国、俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯。其 中，美国正处于历史性的石油繁荣时期，2024年日均原油产量达1319.4万桶，位居全球第一。俄罗斯以 1022.2万桶位居全球第二，沙特阿拉伯以920.3万桶位居第三。 ...

上市企业：中国石油（601857）,中国石化（600028）,大庆华科（000985）,广汇能源（600256）,潜能恒 信（300191）,ST海越（600387） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国石油行业发展策略分析及投资前景研究报告》 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年11月中国原油产量为1763万吨，同比增长2.2%；2025年1-11月中国原 油累计产量为19825.2万吨，累计增长1.7%。 2020-2025年1-11月中国原油产量统计图 ...

甲信期货 ITIC Futures EIA周度数据:原油及油品累库为主 | 2025年12月30日 | 能源化工组 李云旭 | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: | 从业资格号 | | 技资合同业务员报： F03141405 F03141405 E监许可【2012】669号 投资咨询号 Z0021671 | | 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点 和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会 因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场 有风险,投资需谨慎。 美国12月19日当周商业原油库存增加40.5万桶,周度产量预估小幅下降1.8万桶/日,原油净出 口减少60.9万桶/日,炼厂开工率自高点小幅回落至94.6%,炼厂加工量减少21.2万桶/日。由于炼 厂开工率仍处相对高位,汽油、柴油、航煤、燃料油库存均延续累积,原油与石油产品总库存高位 逆季节性上探,单周数据略显利空。 风险因素:关税政策调整,地缘局势,OPEC+产量政策。 | 单位:万桶 | 公布值 | 前值 | 单位:万桶/日 | 公布值 | 前值 | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

来源：华创证券研究 7.出口价格增速转正，推动PPI超预期复苏 8.租金加速下降二手房下行预期或带来新一轮地产政策 2026年宏观脑洞开在哪儿 2018年以来，我们已经连续多次发布年度宏观脑洞报告，目的是在市场一致预期之外，提供更多发散的可能。一致性预期往往已映射到资产价格中，而对 一致性预期的偏离才是市场波动和博弈的空间所在。对于投资而言，应对的重要性远大于精准的预测。因此我们还是希望给出一些在一致性预期之外概率 较高的情景，主要内容如下： 1.美国通胀压力超预期, 美联储重启加息 2.欧元区债务风险放大 欧洲央行重新扩表 3.黄金价格转入持续调整 4.美国原油产量触顶回落，油金比触底回升 5.居民消费可能超预期 6.出口继续超预期 风险提示：地缘政治冲击；政策超预期变动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices by 70 yuan per ton is attributed to fluctuations in international oil prices, with expectations of a potential stabilization or slight increase in the next pricing cycle [1][4][6] Group 1: Price Adjustments - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been raised by 70 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of 0.05 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline and 0.06 yuan for 0 diesel [1][4] - Consumers filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will incur an additional cost of 2.5 yuan due to this price adjustment [1][4] - The price range for 92 gasoline post-adjustment is between 7.25 to 7.45 yuan per liter, while diesel prices range from 6.86 to 7.06 yuan per liter [5] Group 2: International Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil market has experienced mixed trends, with WTI crude oil prices fluctuating around 70 dollars per barrel, reaching 70.13 dollars on July 30 before dropping below that level again [2][3] - OPEC's crude oil production increased by 70,000 barrels per day in July, reaching a new high for 2018 at 32.64 million barrels per day [2] - Russia's oil production also rose to 4.7429 million tons per day in July, exceeding commitments made in previous OPEC meetings [2] Group 3: Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict that the next round of fuel price adjustments, scheduled for August 20, may result in either a stabilization or a slight increase in prices due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and production increases from oil-producing countries [6] - The interplay of geopolitical crises, production levels, and a strengthening dollar is expected to create a volatile environment for oil prices, with a low likelihood of a one-sided market trend [6]

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, Jilin Province's crude oil production from large-scale industrial enterprises reached 212.4 thousand tons, representing a 1.9% decrease compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate 2.0 percentage points lower than 2024 and 3.2 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - The crude oil production accounted for 2.0% of the national total production of 10,847.8 thousand tons during the same period [1] Monthly Analysis - In June 2025, Jilin Province's crude oil production was 35.0 thousand tons, which is a 1.9% decline compared to June 2024, with a growth rate 5.5 percentage points lower than the previous year and 3.3 percentage points lower than the national average [3] - The production in June represented 1.9% of the national total of 1,819.8 thousand tons for that month [3] Statistical Scope - The monthly statistics for major energy products include large-scale industrial legal entities, specifically those with an annual main business income of 20 million yuan or more [7]

Core Insights - China's crude oil production in June 2025 reached 18.198 million tons, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.4%, but the growth rate has slowed by 1.0 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] - For the first half of 2025, the total crude oil production was 108.478 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, which is a decrease of 0.6 percentage points in growth rate compared to the previous year [4] Group 1 - In June 2025, the crude oil production was 18.198 million tons, showing a 1.4% increase year-on-year [1] - The growth rate in June 2025 decreased by 1.0 percentage points compared to the same month in the previous year [1] - For the first six months of 2025, the cumulative crude oil production was 108.478 million tons, with a 1.3% year-on-year growth [4] Group 2 - The growth rate for the first half of 2025 was lower by 0.6 percentage points compared to the same period in the previous year [4] - The statistics cover crude oil production from large-scale industrial enterprises, defined as those with annual main business revenue of 20 million yuan or more [5]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming domestic oil price adjustment window is set to open on October 13, with expectations of a significant price increase prior to the National Day holiday being challenged by recent sharp declines in international oil prices [2][3]. Group 1: International Oil Price Trends - International crude oil prices have experienced a significant drop, with Brent crude futures closing at $64.36 per barrel, marking a weekly decline of over 7%, the lowest in nearly four months. WTI crude prices also fell sharply to $60.35 per barrel [3]. - The decline in oil prices is attributed to three main factors: increased production expectations from OPEC, weakened energy demand forecasts, and a decrease in geopolitical risk premiums [5][9]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Oil Prices - OPEC is expected to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with Saudi Arabia indicating a flexible approach to production adjustments based on market conditions. OPEC's oil output has been rising for five consecutive months [5]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has downgraded global oil demand growth for the third consecutive month, projecting an increase of only 700,000 barrels per day by 2025, a reduction of 350,000 barrels per day from earlier forecasts [9]. - Geopolitical risk premiums have decreased significantly, with current oil risk premiums down 40% compared to the period following the June Israel-Hamas conflict, suggesting further potential for price declines [9]. Group 3: Domestic Oil Price Adjustments - The rapid decline in international oil prices has led to a narrowing of the domestic crude oil change rate from a significant increase before the holiday to a slight increase of 0.69%, with the price increase dropping from 160 yuan per ton to 50 yuan per ton [10]. - If international oil prices remain at current levels, the domestic oil price adjustment on October 13 may not occur due to insufficient price increases [12]. - The outcome of the OPEC meeting on October 5, particularly regarding potential production increases, will directly impact oil price trends in the following week [14].

Core Viewpoint - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the growth trends in China's oil industry, with specific data on production levels and projections for the future [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - As of August 2025, China's crude oil production reached 18.26 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [1]. - Cumulatively, from January to August 2025, China's total crude oil production amounted to 144.858 million tons, showing a cumulative growth of 1.4% [1]. Group 2: Companies Involved - Listed companies in the oil sector include China National Petroleum Corporation (601857), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (600028), Daqing Huake (000985), Guanghui Energy (600256), Qianeng Huanxin (300191), and ST Haiyue (600387) [1]. Group 3: Research and Consulting - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, providing comprehensive industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1].