证券研究报告 原油周报：美国原油库存下降，对油价有所支撑 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年8月24日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 2 ◼ 1）原油价格：本周Brent/WTI原油期货周均价分别66.9/63.1美元/桶，较上周分别+0.7/-0.2美元/桶。 ◼ 2）原油库存：美国原油总库存、商业原油库存、战略原油库存、库欣原油库存分别8.2/4.2/4.0/0.2亿桶，环比-579/- 601/+22/+42万桶。 ◼ 3）原油产量：美国原油产量为1338万桶/天，环比+6万桶/天。美国活跃原油钻机本周411台，环比-1台。美国活跃压 裂车队本周167部，环比-2部。 ◼ 4）原油需求：美国炼厂原油加工量为1721万桶/天，环比+3万桶/天；美国炼厂原油开工率为96.6%，环比+0.2pct。 ◼ 5）原油进出口量：美国原油进口量、出口量、净进口量为650/437/2 ...

Core Insights - Indonesia's upstream regulatory agency reported that the country's crude oil production for the first half of the year was 579,300 barrels per day [1] Industry Summary - The reported crude oil production figure indicates Indonesia's ongoing efforts to maintain its output levels in the face of global market fluctuations [1] - The production rate reflects the country's strategic positioning within the Southeast Asian oil market, highlighting its significance as a regional oil producer [1] - Monitoring of Indonesia's oil production is crucial for investors and stakeholders, as it can impact global oil supply dynamics and pricing [1]

Report Overview - The report is an early morning report on crude oil and refined oil, released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on July 17, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. The month spreads of the three major crude oil markets were oscillating at high levels. Policy-wise, the US plans to impose new tariffs on over 20 countries starting August 1st, and other trading partners may face a 15% - 20% comprehensive tariff. OPEC+ is discussing a suspension of production increases from October. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased this week. US oil drilling decreased by 1, while fracturing increased. Refinery profits in Europe and the US strengthened week-on-week. The supply - demand contradiction in European diesel was prominent. The fundamentals of gasoline and diesel in Asia and China were neutral, with accelerated inventory accumulation in China and a decline in refinery profits. In the peak refinery season, the month spreads of crude oil are expected to remain oscillating at high levels. WTI and Brent are stronger than the Dubai market. The absolute price faces downward pressure in the medium - term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and tariff policies. The suspension of production increase by OPEC+ in the fourth quarter does not change the situation. Attention should be paid to non - OPEC production and the change slope of demand after the peak season [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil Prices**: From July 10 - 16, 2025, WTI prices changed from $66.57 to $66.38 (a decrease of $0.14), BRENT from $68.64 to $68.52 (a decrease of $0.19), and DUBAI from $69.81 to $69.93 (an increase of $0.07) [3] - **Product Prices**: Domestic gasoline prices decreased by $30.00 from July 10 - 16, 2025. Japan's naphtha CFR price and related spreads also showed certain changes, and Singapore's fuel oil 380CST premium increased by 1.55 [3] 3.2 Daily News - **US Shale Oil**: As WTI prices hover around $65, US shale oil drillers are scaling back operations. The slowdown is considered temporary, but tariffs and uncertainties are suppressing drilling activities [3] - **India's Oil Strategy**: In the first half of 2025, India's crude oil imports from Russia increased by 1% to about 1.75 million barrels per day. However, the discount of Urals crude to Brent has narrowed to $1.70 - 2 per barrel. The EU is discussing the 18th round of sanctions on Russia, which may lower the price cap to $45 [4] - **Saudi Arabia's Production Reporting**: Saudi Arabia adopted a new measurement standard to report June's crude oil production, making it meet the quota requirements. Its actual production was 9.75 million barrels per day, while the "market supply" was 9.36 million barrels per day [4] - **Iraq's Oil Production**: Drone attacks in Iraqi Kurdistan reduced oil production by 140,000 - 150,000 barrels per day [4] 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - **US Data**: In the week of July 11, US crude oil exports increased by 761,000 barrels per day to 3.518 million barrels per day; domestic production decreased by 10,000 barrels to 13.375 million barrels per day; commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels (a 0.91% decrease); strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories decreased by 300,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels (a 0.07% decrease); commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 366,000 barrels per day to 6.379 million barrels per day; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.262 million barrels per day, a 1.1% decrease from the same period last year [4][5] - **China Data**: This week, the operating rate of major refineries remained flat, and that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. China's gasoline and diesel production both increased, with diesel inventory accumulation. The comprehensive profit of major refineries and local refineries decreased week - on - week [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that Algeria's crude oil production increased by 0.7 thousand barrels per day in June, reaching a total of 927 thousand barrels per day [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased by 173,000 barrels per day in June, reaching a total of 9.356 million barrels per day [1]

甲信期货 TIC Futures EIA周度数据:原油库存回升,产量下降 | 2025年7月9日 | 能源化工组 李云旭 | 重要提 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 信息仅 | | 投资咨询业务资格: | 从业资格号 F03141405 | 关注、 | | 证监许可【2012】669号 | 投资咨询号 Z0021671 | 险,投 | 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和 信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为 关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风 险,投资需谨慎。 美国7月4日当周商业原油库存增加707万桶，延续了上期的底部回升态势,开工率由94.9%降至94.7%, 原油加工量下降9.9万桶/目,但仍处近五年同期高位。单周原油产量下降4.8万桶/日,为5月9日当周以来最 低,关注后期产量回落的持续性。石油产品方面,汽油库存高位回落,柴油库存延续逆季节性走低,成品油 表观需求走高,原油与石油产品总库存季节性累积仍未停止,单周数据指向有限。 风险因素:关税政策调整,地缘局势,OPEC+改变产量政策。 美国汽油表观需求(万桶/日) ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Middle - East conflict has not further escalated, and oil prices have given back their gains. Although the situation has not worsened, there may be more attacks on energy facilities in the future, and oil prices will remain highly volatile in the short term. The strategy is for oil prices to oscillate strongly in the medium - term with a short - position configuration [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Oil prices declined: The July - delivery light - sweet crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $1.21 to $71.77 per barrel, a 1.66% drop; the August - delivery Brent crude oil futures price dropped by $1.00 to $73.23 per barrel, a 1.35% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.94% at 530 yuan per barrel [1]. - Iran's nuclear - related situation: Iran's parliament is preparing a bill to withdraw from the NPT, but Tehran still opposes developing weapons of mass destruction. Iran won't negotiate with the US until its response to Israeli attacks is completed [1]. - Israel's stance: Israel said its actions against Iran may take 2 - 3 weeks, depending on political leadership's decisions. If Iran accepts US demands to abandon its nuclear program, Israel is willing to stop its actions [1]. - Warning from Iraq: Iraq's foreign minister warned that intensified Middle - East tensions and a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices up to $300 per barrel, raising European inflation and complicating oil exports from countries like Iraq. Closing the Strait would reduce global oil supply by about 5 million barrels per day [1]. - Goods transportation through the Strait of Hormuz: The number of cargo ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz decreased slightly to 111 on the 15th, down from 116 on June 12, but major oil infrastructure has not been significantly disrupted [1]. - OPEC monthly report: OPEC maintained its 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. In May, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 183,000 barrels per day to 27.02 million barrels per day, and OPEC +'s average daily production was 41.23 million barrels, an 180,000 - barrel increase from April. It expects the global economy to perform well in the second half of 2025 [1]. Investment Logic - Israel has not launched further attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure after weekend attacks. It may focus on regime power centers, assassinations, and missile/nuclear targets. The easing situation has relieved the market, but more energy - facility attacks are possible, and short - term oil prices will be highly volatile [2]. Strategy - Oil prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and a medium - term short - position configuration is recommended [3].

Group 1 - International oil prices showed volatility, with a decline in closing prices on June 10, 2023. The price of light crude oil futures for July delivery fell by $0.31 to $64.98 per barrel, a decrease of 0.47%. Brent crude oil for August delivery decreased by $0.17 to $66.87 per barrel, down 0.25% [1] - Optimism surrounding the China-US trade talks is providing support for oil prices, as indicated by Harry Tchilinguirian from Onyx Capital Group [1] - Saudi Aramco is expected to ship approximately 47 million barrels of crude oil to China in July, a decrease of 1 million barrels compared to June, which may signal an early indication of OPEC+ exiting production cuts [1] Group 2 - According to a survey by S&P Global, analysts estimate a decrease of 1.9 million barrels in US commercial crude oil inventories, while gasoline and refined product inventories are expected to increase by 1.7 million barrels and 0.9 million barrels, respectively [2] - The US Energy Information Administration's monthly short-term energy outlook report indicates that US oil companies will reduce drilling activities due to low oil prices, leading to a decrease in drilling and completion numbers over the next 18 months [2] - The report projects that US average daily crude oil production will decline from 13.5 million barrels per day in Q2 to 13.3 million barrels per day in Q4 of this year, with an average slightly above 13.4 million barrels per day expected for the year [2]

调查显示，欧佩克5月份原油产量增加了20万桶/日，达到2754万桶/日。 ...