Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [173]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decrease in U.S. crude oil production, with a current output of 13.22 million barrels per day, down by 480,000 barrels per day from the previous period [2]. - The average weekly price for Brent and WTI crude oil futures is reported at $67.7 and $63.5 per barrel, respectively, with Brent experiencing a decrease of $0.9 and WTI an increase of $0.1 compared to the previous week [2]. - U.S. crude oil inventories have shown a decline, with total inventories at 84.51 million barrels, down by 3.24 million barrels [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations, which could impact oil supply dynamics [1]. Summary by Sections 1. U.S. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices: Brent and WTI averaged $67.7 and $63.5 per barrel, with changes of -$0.9 and +$0.1 respectively [2]. - Crude oil inventories: Total U.S. crude oil inventory is 84.51 million barrels, with commercial inventories at 42.03 million barrels, showing a decrease of 3.24 million barrels [2]. - Crude oil production: U.S. production stands at 13.22 million barrels per day, down by 480,000 barrels per day [2]. - Crude oil demand: U.S. refinery crude processing is at 16.03 million barrels per day, down by 180,000 barrels per day [2]. - Crude oil imports and exports: U.S. imports are 6.20 million barrels per day, exports at 4.05 million barrels per day, resulting in a net import of 2.15 million barrels per day [2]. 2. U.S. Refined Oil Products - Refined oil prices: Average prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are $80, $101, and $89 per barrel, with changes of +$1.3, -$9.5, and -$5.1 respectively [2]. - Refined oil inventories: Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories are 26 million barrels, 13 million barrels, and 4 million barrels, with changes of +690, -555, and -66 thousand barrels respectively [2]. - Refined oil production: Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel production are 9.01 million, 4.81 million, and 1.71 million barrels per day, with changes of -570, -10, and -40 thousand barrels per day respectively [2]. - Refined oil demand: Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel consumption are 8.15 million, 4.31 million, and 1.66 million barrels per day, with changes of -600, +240, and +290 thousand barrels per day respectively [2]. 3. Related Listed Companies - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [3]. - Companies to watch include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation and China Oilfield Services Limited [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products generally declined on Monday due to factors such as geopolitical events and cost - side impacts. Most products are expected to be in an oscillatory state. For example, crude oil prices dropped significantly due to the potential nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US and the decision of OPEC+ to maintain production. Other products like fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, etc., were also affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost fluctuations [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, WTI 3 - month contract closed down $3.07 to $62.14 per barrel, a 4.71% decline; Brent new 4 - month contract closed down $3.02 to $66.3 per barrel, a 4.36% decline; SC2603 closed at 450 yuan/barrel, down 22.7 yuan/barrel, a 4.8% decline. Iran may hold high - level talks with the US in the coming days. OPEC+ decided to maintain March crude oil production. Brazil's 2025 oil production reached a record 3.77 million barrels per day, up 12.3% from the previous year. The price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2603) fell 7.01% to 2,679 yuan/ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2604) fell 5.92% to 3,128 yuan/ton. The supply of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient. The demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival. The price is expected to oscillate [2] - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2603) fell 4.879% to 3,299 yuan/ton. In the first half of February, the inventory in the north is at a low level, while in the south, the inventory is expected to rise during the Spring Festival. The price is expected to oscillate [2] - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5,092 yuan/ton, down 3.38%; EG2605 closed at 3,767 yuan/ton, down 3.73%. Some PTA and polyester devices have changes in operation. The price of polyester raw materials is expected to oscillate following the cost [4] - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber (RU2605) fell 380 yuan/ton to 15,980 yuan/ton. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The price is expected to be weakly oscillatory [4][6] - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,230 yuan/ton. The domestic production in February is expected to decrease slightly, and the import volume will decline from a high level. The demand from MTO devices is expected to decline. The price is expected to maintain a low - level wide - range oscillation [6] - **Polyolefin**: The price of polyolefin products shows a loss in profit. The supply in February is expected to increase slightly, and the demand will enter a holiday period, with inventory passively increasing. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6][8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The market price of PVC in East, North, and South China increased. The supply in February will remain high, and the demand is expected to weaken. The price is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on February 2, 2026, compared with January 30 [9] 3.3 Market News - Iran and the US will restart nuclear negotiations on Friday. OPEC+ decided to maintain March crude oil production. A preliminary survey shows that US crude oil and distillate inventories are expected to decline last week, while futures inventories may increase [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][15][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [30][32][36] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [43][45][48] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, etc. [59][61][63] - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of products like LLDPE, PP, PTA, etc. [68][70] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include the deputy director of the research institute, the energy - chemical research director, and analysts for different product categories, each with rich experience and professional titles [73][74][75]

摘要：【图】2025年8月山东省原油产量数据 2025年1-8月原油产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前8个月，山东省规模以上工业企业原油产量累计达到了1483.4万吨， 与2024年同期的数据相比，增长了0.2%，增速较2024年同期低0.5个百分点，增速放缓，增速较同期全 国低1.2个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业原油产量14485.8万吨的比重为10.2%。 单独看2025年8月份，山东省规模以上工业企业原油产量达到了189.9万吨，与2024年同期的数据相比， 8月份的产量增长了1.2%，增速较2024年同期高3.7个百分点，增速较同期全国低1.2个百分点，约占同 期全国规模以上企业原油产量1825.6万吨的比重为10.4%。 图表：山东省原油产量分月（当月值）统计 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 产业调研网为您提供更多 石油化工行业最新动态 石油现状及发展前景 化工发展前景趋势分析 日化的现状和发展趋势 润滑油行业现状与发展趋势汽油市场现状及前景分析 柴油市场调研与发展前景 橡胶发展现状及前景预测 塑料市场调研及发 ...

Group 1 - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Group 2 - The EIA data shows that the inventory pressure in the US energy market continues, and the weekly data is bearish [4] Group 3 EIA Weekly Data Overview - US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.602 million barrels in the week ending January 16, 2026 [4] - The refinery utilization rate dropped seasonally from 95.3% to 93.3% but remained at a high level for the same period [4] - Crude oil processing volume decreased by 354,000 barrels per day, which was the main driver of crude oil inventory accumulation [4] - Net crude oil exports increased by 27,000 barrels per day, with both imports and exports declining [4] - The estimated weekly crude oil production was revised down by 21,000 barrels per day [4] Inventory and Demand Data Details | Category | Unit | Current Value | Previous Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US commercial crude oil inventory change | 10,000 barrels | - 360.2 | △ 339.1 | | US Cushing crude oil inventory change | 10,000 barrels | △ 147.8 | - 74.5 | | US strategic petroleum reserve change | 10,000 barrels | ▲ 80.6 | △ 21.4 | | US gasoline inventory change | 10,000 barrels | △ 597.7 | ▲ 897.7 | | US diesel inventory change | 10,000 barrels | ▲ 334.8 | - 2.9 | | US jet fuel inventory change | 10,000 barrels | ▼ - 78.8 | ▼ - 89.2 | | US fuel oil inventory change | 10,000 barrels | ▼ - 58.5 | ▲ 173.5 | | US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR) | 10,000 barrels | ▲ 753.8 | 4 621 | | US crude oil production | 10,000 barrels per day | 1373.2 | 1375.3 | | US refined oil apparent demand | 10,000 barrels per day | 2017.2 | 2100.9 | | US gasoline apparent demand | 10,000 barrels per day | 783.4 | 830.4 | | US diesel apparent demand | 10,000 barrels per day | 352.4 | 409.6 | | US crude oil imports | 10,000 barrels per day | 644.7 | 709.2 | | US crude oil exports | 10,000 barrels per day | 368.8 | 430.6 | | US refinery crude oil processing volume | 10,000 barrels per day | 1660.4 | 1695.8 | | US refinery utilization rate | % | 93.3 | 95.3 | [5]

Core Viewpoint - Russia's oil production experienced a slight decline in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of approximately 0.7% to 9.129 million barrels per day, despite ongoing challenges from drone attacks on energy infrastructure and falling international oil prices [1] Group 1: Oil Production Data - In December 2025, Russia's oil production decreased by 73,000 barrels per day, reaching 9.304 million barrels per day [1] - The overall contribution of oil and gas to the Russian federal budget tax revenue is about one-quarter [1] Group 2: International Oil Prices - International oil prices fell by over 18% in 2025, marking the largest annual decline since 2020, primarily due to heightened concerns over supply surplus [1]

【1月8日调查：欧佩克12月原油产量稳定，多因素影响市场】1月8日一项调查显示，欧佩克12月原油产 量保持稳定。虽委内瑞拉产量降至两年来最低点，但被伊拉克等成员国增产抵消。欧佩克日均产量略高 于2,900万桶，与上月基本持平。 受美国拦截扣押油轮施压策略影响，委内瑞拉日产量下降约14%，降 至83万桶。目前伦敦油价在每桶60美元上方波动，处五年来最低水平附近，挤压了欧佩克+成员国财政 空间。 在此不确定背景下，八个主要成员国本月再次同意一季度冻结产量，暂停去年大规模供应复苏 计划。12月增产最多的是伊拉克，日产量增加8万桶，达平均每日437万桶。 伊拉克产量大幅超过其议 定的欧佩克+配额，不过该组织数据显示其仍符合目标。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

格隆汇1月7日｜全球原油产量在每日8000万桶以上，主要生产国包括美国、俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯。其 中，美国正处于历史性的石油繁荣时期，2024年日均原油产量达1319.4万桶，位居全球第一。俄罗斯以 1022.2万桶位居全球第二，沙特阿拉伯以920.3万桶位居第三。 ...

上市企业：中国石油（601857）,中国石化（600028）,大庆华科（000985）,广汇能源（600256）,潜能恒 信（300191）,ST海越（600387） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国石油行业发展策略分析及投资前景研究报告》 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年11月中国原油产量为1763万吨，同比增长2.2%；2025年1-11月中国原 油累计产量为19825.2万吨，累计增长1.7%。 2020-2025年1-11月中国原油产量统计图 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The EIA weekly data shows that crude oil and oil products are mainly in a state of inventory accumulation. The single - week data is slightly bearish as the total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products has increased seasonally at a high level [2][4] 3. Summary According to Related Data Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 405,000 barrels in the week ending December 19, 2025, compared with a decrease of 1.274 million barrels in the previous period [4][6] - US Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 707,000 barrels, compared with a decrease of 742,000 barrels in the previous period [6] - US strategic petroleum inventory increased by 800,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 249,000 barrels in the previous period [6] - US gasoline inventory increased by 2.862 million barrels, compared with an increase of 4.808 million barrels in the previous period [6] - US diesel inventory increased by 202,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 1.712 million barrels in the previous period [6] - US jet fuel inventory increased by 1.316 million barrels, compared with an increase of 1.007 million barrels in the previous period [6] - US fuel oil inventory increased by 853,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 450,000 barrels in the previous period [6] - The inventory of US crude oil and petroleum products (excluding SPR) increased by 2.139 million barrels [6] Production and Consumption Data - US crude oil production was estimated to be 13.825 million barrels per day, a slight decrease of 18,000 barrels per day from the previous period [4][6] - US refined oil apparent demand was 20.31 million barrels per day, compared with 20.573 million barrels per day in the previous period [6] - US gasoline apparent demand was 8.942 million barrels per day, compared with 9.078 million barrels per day in the previous period [6] - US diesel apparent demand was 4.156 million barrels per day, compared with 3.786 million barrels per day in the previous period [6] Trade and Processing Data - US crude oil imports were 6.086 million barrels per day, compared with 6.525 million barrels per day in the previous period [6] - US crude oil exports were 3.616 million barrels per day, compared with 4.664 million barrels per day in the previous period. The net export of crude oil decreased by 609,000 barrels per day [4][6] - US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.776 million barrels per day, a decrease of 2.12 million barrels per day from the previous period [4][6] - The US refinery utilization rate fell slightly from the high point to 94.6%, compared with 94.8% in the previous period [4][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is to provide alternative macroeconomic scenarios for 2026 that deviate from consensus expectations, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks [1] Group 2 - U.S. inflation pressures may exceed expectations, leading the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate hikes [1] - Debt risks in the Eurozone could amplify, prompting the European Central Bank to expand its balance sheet again [1] - Gold prices are expected to enter a phase of sustained adjustment [1] Group 3 - U.S. crude oil production may peak and then decline, while the oil-gold ratio is anticipated to rebound [1] - Consumer spending could potentially exceed expectations [1] - Exports are likely to continue outperforming expectations [1] Group 4 - The growth rate of export prices may turn positive, driving a stronger-than-expected recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [1] - Accelerating declines in rental prices and expectations of a downturn in the secondary housing market may lead to new real estate policies [1]