每经记者｜周程程 每经编辑｜王可然 7月主要产油国原油产量提升 近期，国际油价涨跌互现。本轮计价周期前期，由于担忧美伊关系再度趋紧收缩供应，以及担忧中东地 区和加拿大原油供应减少，国际油价出现小幅反弹。 其中，7月30日，WTI原油自近两周来首次站至70美元/桶上方。数据显示，截至30日收盘，纽约商品交 易所9月交货的轻质原油期货价格收于每桶70.13美元，涨幅为2.10％。9月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价 格收于每桶74.97美元，涨幅为0.92％。 不过，7月31日，国际油价又回吐前一日涨幅，WTI原油价格重回每桶70美元下方。一项调查显示，7月 石油输出国组织(欧佩克)原油产量增加7万桶/日至3264万桶/日，触及2018年内新高。 8月6日，国家发改委网站消息显示，根据近期国际市场油价变化情况，按照现行成品油价格形成机制， 自2018年8月6日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格（标准品，下同）每吨均提高70元。 据卓创资讯测算，由于本轮油价上调幅度偏小，消费者加满一箱50L的92#汽油仅多花2.5元。 本轮成品油计价周期内，美国原油库存下降及地缘政治冲突等利好消息支撑国际油价反弹，但股市下 跌，贸易关系升级等利 ...

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, Jilin Province's crude oil production from large-scale industrial enterprises reached 212.4 thousand tons, representing a 1.9% decrease compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate 2.0 percentage points lower than 2024 and 3.2 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - The crude oil production accounted for 2.0% of the national total production of 10,847.8 thousand tons during the same period [1] Monthly Analysis - In June 2025, Jilin Province's crude oil production was 35.0 thousand tons, which is a 1.9% decline compared to June 2024, with a growth rate 5.5 percentage points lower than the previous year and 3.3 percentage points lower than the national average [3] - The production in June represented 1.9% of the national total of 1,819.8 thousand tons for that month [3] Statistical Scope - The monthly statistics for major energy products include large-scale industrial legal entities, specifically those with an annual main business income of 20 million yuan or more [7]

Core Insights - China's crude oil production in June 2025 reached 18.198 million tons, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.4%, but the growth rate has slowed by 1.0 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] - For the first half of 2025, the total crude oil production was 108.478 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, which is a decrease of 0.6 percentage points in growth rate compared to the previous year [4] Group 1 - In June 2025, the crude oil production was 18.198 million tons, showing a 1.4% increase year-on-year [1] - The growth rate in June 2025 decreased by 1.0 percentage points compared to the same month in the previous year [1] - For the first six months of 2025, the cumulative crude oil production was 108.478 million tons, with a 1.3% year-on-year growth [4] Group 2 - The growth rate for the first half of 2025 was lower by 0.6 percentage points compared to the same period in the previous year [4] - The statistics cover crude oil production from large-scale industrial enterprises, defined as those with annual main business revenue of 20 million yuan or more [5]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming domestic oil price adjustment window is set to open on October 13, with expectations of a significant price increase prior to the National Day holiday being challenged by recent sharp declines in international oil prices [2][3]. Group 1: International Oil Price Trends - International crude oil prices have experienced a significant drop, with Brent crude futures closing at $64.36 per barrel, marking a weekly decline of over 7%, the lowest in nearly four months. WTI crude prices also fell sharply to $60.35 per barrel [3]. - The decline in oil prices is attributed to three main factors: increased production expectations from OPEC, weakened energy demand forecasts, and a decrease in geopolitical risk premiums [5][9]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Oil Prices - OPEC is expected to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with Saudi Arabia indicating a flexible approach to production adjustments based on market conditions. OPEC's oil output has been rising for five consecutive months [5]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has downgraded global oil demand growth for the third consecutive month, projecting an increase of only 700,000 barrels per day by 2025, a reduction of 350,000 barrels per day from earlier forecasts [9]. - Geopolitical risk premiums have decreased significantly, with current oil risk premiums down 40% compared to the period following the June Israel-Hamas conflict, suggesting further potential for price declines [9]. Group 3: Domestic Oil Price Adjustments - The rapid decline in international oil prices has led to a narrowing of the domestic crude oil change rate from a significant increase before the holiday to a slight increase of 0.69%, with the price increase dropping from 160 yuan per ton to 50 yuan per ton [10]. - If international oil prices remain at current levels, the domestic oil price adjustment on October 13 may not occur due to insufficient price increases [12]. - The outcome of the OPEC meeting on October 5, particularly regarding potential production increases, will directly impact oil price trends in the following week [14].

Core Viewpoint - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the growth trends in China's oil industry, with specific data on production levels and projections for the future [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - As of August 2025, China's crude oil production reached 18.26 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [1]. - Cumulatively, from January to August 2025, China's total crude oil production amounted to 144.858 million tons, showing a cumulative growth of 1.4% [1]. Group 2: Companies Involved - Listed companies in the oil sector include China National Petroleum Corporation (601857), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (600028), Daqing Huake (000985), Guanghui Energy (600256), Qianeng Huanxin (300191), and ST Haiyue (600387) [1]. Group 3: Research and Consulting - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, providing comprehensive industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1].

Group 1 - In the first four months of 2025, the crude oil production of large-scale industrial enterprises in Sichuan Province reached 84,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, which is a slowdown of 47.5 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024. This production accounts for 0.1% of the national crude oil production of 71,811,000 tons during the same period [1] - In April 2025, the crude oil production in Sichuan Province was 21,000 tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.8%, which is a decrease of 21.3 percentage points compared to April 2024. This production also represents 0.1% of the national crude oil production of 1,772,400 tons for that month [2] Group 2 - The data on crude oil production is based on large-scale industrial legal entities, specifically those with an annual main business income of 20 million yuan or more [6]

Core Insights - In the first five months of 2025, the crude oil production in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region reached 519,000 tons, marking a 0.10% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate 2.7 percentage points higher than 2024, but 1.2 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - In May 2025 alone, the crude oil production in Ningxia was 125,000 tons, representing a significant 21.20% increase year-on-year, with a growth rate 28.0 percentage points higher than 2024 and 19.4 percentage points above the national average [2] Summary by Category Production Data - The cumulative crude oil production from January to May 2025 in Ningxia was 519,000 tons, accounting for 0.6% of the national production of 9,028,000 tons [1] - In May 2025, the production reached 125,000 tons, which is 0.7% of the national production of 1,846,900 tons [2] Growth Rates - The growth rate for the first five months of 2025 was 0.10%, which is 2.7 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024, but lower than the national growth rate by 1.2 percentage points [1] - The growth rate for May 2025 was 21.20%, significantly higher than the 2024 figure by 28.0 percentage points and above the national growth rate by 19.4 percentage points [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - expectation is difficult to reverse the weak fundamental situation, limiting the geopolitical premium space in the short - term and driving the center of the crude oil futures market to gradually decline in the long - term. The market reaction is generally bearish due to the entry into the traditional demand off - season and the Fed's interest rate decision [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Production - As of the week ending September 12, the daily average crude oil production in the US was 13.482 million barrels, a decrease of 13,000 barrels from the previous week and an increase of 282,000 barrels from the same period last year. The four - week daily average production as of September 12 was 13.46 million barrels, 1.4% higher than the same period last year. The daily average production this year was 13.437 million barrels, 1.9% higher than last year [1]. Inventory - US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415.361 million barrels, a decrease of 2.19%. Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 296,000 barrels to 23.561 million barrels, a decrease of 1.24%. US gasoline inventory decreased by 2.347 million barrels to 217.650 million barrels, a decrease of 1.07%. US distillate oil inventory increased by 4.046 million barrels to 124.684 million barrels, an increase of 3.35%. US total oil product inventory increased by 1.171 million barrels to 1.282421 billion barrels, an increase of 0.019%. US strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 504,000 barrels to 405.728 million barrels, an increase of 0.12% [1][2]. Refinery - The US refinery utilization rate was 93.3%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous week, a decrease of 1.69% [2]. Trade - US crude oil imports were 5.692 million barrels per day, a decrease of 579,000 barrels per day from the previous week, a decrease of 9.23%. US crude oil exports were 5.277 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.532 million barrels per day from the previous week, an increase of 92.1%, reaching the highest level in nearly two years [1][2]. Interest Rate - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. After the announcement of the Fed's interest rate decision, oil prices showed a downward trend [1].

Group 1 - As of the week ending September 12, 2025, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415 million barrels, marking the largest decline since June 13, 2025, against market expectations of a decrease of 0.857 million barrels and a previous value of 3.939 million barrels [1] - U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 504,000 barrels to 40.57 million barrels, the highest level since October 7, 2022 [1] - Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.347 million barrels, compared to a previous value of 1.458 million barrels [1] - Distillate inventories increased by 4.046 million barrels, exceeding expectations of 0.975 million barrels and a previous value of 4.715 million barrels [1] Group 2 - U.S. domestic crude oil production decreased by 13,000 barrels to 13.482 million barrels per day as of the week ending September 12, 2025 [1] - The four-week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 20.671 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.69% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 3 - U.S. commercial crude oil imports, excluding the Strategic Reserve, were 5.692 million barrels per day, a decrease of 579,000 barrels per day, the lowest level since June 13, 2025 [1] - U.S. crude oil exports increased by 2.532 million barrels per day to 5.277 million barrels per day, the highest level since December 29, 2023 [1] Group 4 - As of September 18, 2025, WTI crude oil was reported at $63.41 per barrel, down 0.36%, while Brent crude was reported at $67.13 per barrel, down 0.42% [2]

Core Insights - OPEC+ increased its average daily crude oil production to 42.4 million barrels in August, an increase of 509,000 barrels from July [1] - Saudi Arabia's daily crude oil production rose by 258,000 barrels to 9.71 million barrels in August [1] - OPEC maintains its forecast for non-OPEC+ countries' supply growth at 810,000 barrels per day for 2025 and 630,000 barrels per day for 2026 [1]