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申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250926
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 02:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefins rebounded narrowly. The prices of polyolefins generally fluctuate passively following the cost - end. In the medium - term, the market focuses on actual demand fulfillment and pre - holiday terminal stocking, and also needs to pay attention to potential policy changes in the overall supply side in the fourth quarter in China. Polyolefins may continue to oscillate in the low - level range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7169, 7209, and 7231 respectively, with price increases of 27, 27, and 13, and price increase rates of 0.38%, 0.38%, and 0.18%. The trading volumes were 167193, 10346, and 48, and the open interests were 561860, 46507, and 169, with open interest changes of - 9915, 1516, and 4 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6898, 6941, and 6914 respectively, with price increases of 21, 21, and 4, and price increase rates of 0.31%, 0.30%, and 0.06%. The trading volumes were 166035, 9614, and 198, and the open interests were 628037, 77359, and 1879, with open interest changes of - 8467, 890, and 137 [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 40, - 22, and 62, compared with previous values of - 40, - 36, and 76. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 43, 27, and 16, compared with previous values of - 43, 10, and 33 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2358 yuan/ton, 6485 yuan/ton, 589 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6740 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Mid - stream Spot**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton, 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton, and 6650 - 6850 yuan/ton [2]. News - On Thursday (September 25, 2025), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was 64.98 dollars per barrel, down 0.01 dollars or 0.02% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 64.06 - 65.34 dollars. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was 69.42 dollars per barrel, up 0.11 dollars or 0.16% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 68.42 - 69.68 dollars [2].
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250922
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 02:01
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefins closed down with a negative candlestick. The spot market of polyolefins is still mainly driven by supply - demand fundamentals. Currently, PE inventory is being slowly digested, and PP inventory has also improved. After the Fed's interest rate cut last week, the market declined due to concerns about future demand fulfillment. In the medium term, with the interaction of cost and supply - demand factors, polyolefins may continue to oscillate in a low - level range. In the short term, attention should be paid to the terminal stocking rhythm before and after the National Day holiday. After continuous declines, polyolefins may gradually stop falling this week [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7169, 7223, and 7250 respectively, with price drops of - 19, - 10, and - 30 and percentage drops of - 0.26%, - 0.14%, and - 0.41%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6914, 6958, and 6928 respectively, with price drops of - 12, - 5, and - 3 and percentage drops of - 0.17%, - 0.07%, and - 0.04% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 201711, 10840, and 74 respectively, and the open interests were 556313, 40101, and 92 respectively, with open - interest increases of 26840, 1877, and 25. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 230403, 18721, and 353 respectively, and the open interests were 609908, 73691, and 1589 respectively, with open - interest increases of 35189, 2630, and 14 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 54, - 27, and 81 respectively, compared to previous values of - 45, - 47, and 92. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 44, 30, and 14 respectively, compared to previous values of - 37, 32, and 5 [2] Raw Material and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2348 yuan/ton, 6625 yuan/ton, 591 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6750 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2364 yuan/ton, 6625 yuan/ton, 593 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6750 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream Spot Market**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 7150 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous ranges of 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6750 - 6900 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton, and 6700 - 6900 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous ranges of 6750 - 6900 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton, and 6700 - 6950 yuan/ton [2] News - On Friday (September 19), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.68 per barrel, down $0.89 or 1.40% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.6 - $63.65. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.68 per barrel, down $0.76 or 1.13% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.44 - $67.57 [2]