Group 1: Investment Rating of the Report - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers mid - term outlooks for each metal variety, including "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", etc. [8][11] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Fed restarts interest rate cuts, investors have a positive macro - outlook. There is a linkage between the stock and futures markets of non - ferrous metals, with copper leading the rise among base metals. In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions and stock - futures linkage speculation lead to a pulse rise in some varieties, but there is a risk of price decline after a rapid increase. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin will push up base metal prices [1]. - For different metal varieties, the supply - side contraction logic of copper continues to drive up prices; the fundamentals of alumina are weak with price pressure; aluminum prices are boosted by macro - sentiment; aluminum alloy prices are supported by cost; zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals despite inventory accumulation; lead prices also rebound with non - ferrous metals with a loosening supply - demand outlook; nickel prices fluctuate widely due to the repeated progress of RKAB quotas; stainless steel prices rise with the strengthening of nickel prices; tin prices oscillate at a high level due to continuous supply disruptions [2]. Group 3: Summary by Variety (According to the Catalog) Copper - **Viewpoint**: The supply - side contraction logic continues to ferment, and copper prices maintain a strong trend. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia has production disruptions, and there are also issues such as the US government shutdown, domestic production changes, and policy - induced production cuts in the recycled copper market. The supply is expected to decrease, while the demand has resilience, and copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8][10]. - **Information Analysis**: The production of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to be severely affected in 2026, with a 35% drop in annual output; the US government shutdown affects economic data release; in August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year; the spot price of electrolytic copper had a certain premium; the copper inventory increased; the "770 - document" led to production cuts in the recycled copper market; the labor union of Los Pelambres copper mine rejected the contract, increasing the strike risk [8][9]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the US government shutdown affects data release. On the supply side, mine production disruptions, low processing fees, and policy - induced production cuts lead to a supply reduction expectation. On the demand side, the peak season is approaching, and downstream stocking demand may increase. If the inventory continues to decline, copper prices may remain strong [10]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the upward price movement is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [11][13]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the domestic and overseas spot prices of alumina changed, with a certain decline in domestic prices; the estimated supply in September exceeded demand by about 430,000 tons; the price of a tender by an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang decreased; the alumina warehouse receipts increased [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment in the non - ferrous sector amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, although some smelters are close to the cost line, the operating capacity is still high, and the strong inventory accumulation trend continues. The price is under pressure, but the limited decline in ore prices in the fourth quarter restricts the downward space. Potential production cuts and Guinea - related disturbances may affect prices [12]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, aluminum prices oscillate strongly. In the short term, they are expected to oscillate, and in the medium term, the price center may rise [13][14]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased; some aluminum production projects were completed or planned to be put into production [13]. - **Main Logic**: The short - term interest rate cut boosts macro - expectations. On the supply side, replacement capacities are being put into production, and the operating capacity is high. On the demand side, as the peak season approaches, the order outlook improves. The post - holiday demand and inventory trends need to be observed [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Supported by cost, the price oscillates. In the short term, there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage, and in the medium term, it is expected to oscillate within a range [14][15]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the price of ADC12 increased, and the price difference between ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed; the registered warehouse receipts increased; the EU may impose a 30% tax on scrap metal exports; the growth rate of the auto market in September slowed down [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: On the cost side, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost reduction space is limited. On the supply side, the operating rate is increasing, and the implementation of policies needs to be observed. On the demand side, there is a marginal improvement, but the peak - season effect needs to be verified. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals despite inventory accumulation. In the short term, they may oscillate at a high level, and in the long term, there is a downward risk [16][17]. - **Information Analysis**: The spot price of zinc has a certain discount; the inventory of zinc ingots increased; a mine in Australia had a seismic event, delaying high - grade zinc ore mining [16]. - **Main Logic**: The non - ferrous sector rebounds with the rise of copper prices. The macro - environment is slightly negative. The short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and smelters have strong production willingness. The demand is in the off - peak to peak transition period, and the overall demand outlook is average. The fundamentals are in surplus, but the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the "soft squeeze" of LME zinc support short - term prices [17]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand loosening expectation remains unchanged, and lead prices rebound with non - ferrous metals, showing an oscillating trend [17][20]. - **Information Analysis**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries and the price difference between primary and recycled lead remained stable; the price of lead ingots was stable, and the spot premium decreased; the social inventory of lead ingots decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased; lead smelters had production cuts in September, and downstream enterprises stocked up before the holiday [17][19]. - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, the premium and price difference are stable; on the supply side, the profit of recycled lead smelters improves, and the production increases; on the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories is high. After the battery factory's stocking is completed, the demand may decline, and the supply may loosen [19][20]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Due to the repeated progress of RKAB quotas, nickel prices fluctuate widely. In the short term, they oscillate widely, and in the long term, it is advisable to wait and see [20][24]. - **Information Analysis**: The LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic inventory was partially exported; Antam and CATL signed cooperation agreements; the application process of the 2026 RKAB quota was delayed; a nickel - iron plant in Brazil increased its production capacity [20][22]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are slightly weak. The mine end is relatively stable, but the intermediate product output recovers, and the nickel salt price weakens slightly. The inventory accumulates, and the price pressure is significant. Short - term trading is recommended [22]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Stainless steel prices rise with the strengthening of nickel prices and are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [25]. - **Information Analysis**: The futures warehouse receipts of stainless steel decreased; the spot price had a certain premium; the stainless steel production in September increased [25]. - **Main Logic**: The prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron are stable. The production increase in September is driven by price and season. The supply - demand imbalance has been alleviated, and the future price trend depends on inventory and cost changes [25]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Due to continuous supply disruptions, tin prices oscillate at a high level. The supply - side tightness provides strong support for prices, and they are expected to oscillate [26]. - **Information Analysis**: The inventory and trading volume of tin changed; the spot price increased; Indonesia took measures to regulate the tin market, affecting supply [26]. - **Main Logic**: During the National Day, there were continuous supply disruptions in the tin market, including Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mines and quota system adjustments. The supply in key areas such as the Wa State and Indonesia is restricted, and the supply - side tightness supports prices [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text Core View of the Report - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner in the short - term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On September 25, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $64.98 per barrel, down 0.02% from the previous value; Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $69.42 per barrel, up 0.16%. Naphtha spot price (CFR Japan) was $608.50 per ton, up 0.41%. The spot price of isomeric xylene (FOB South Korea) was $676.00 per ton, up 0.52%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX) CFR China Main Port was $817.00 per ton, up 0.57% [1] - **PTA**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE TA's main contract was 4,678 yuan per ton, up 1.12%; the settlement price was 4,658 yuan per ton, up 1.30%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4,640 yuan per ton, up 1.18%; the settlement price was 4,630 yuan per ton, up 1.58%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,597 yuan per ton, up 0.81%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,585 yuan per ton, up 1.44%; the external price index was $609.00 per ton, up 1.50% [1] - **PX**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PX's main contract was 6,674 yuan per ton, up 1.09%; the settlement price was 6,640 yuan per ton, up 1.10%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 6,678 yuan per ton, up 0.69%; the settlement price was 6,470 yuan per ton, down 2.03%. The domestic PX spot price remained unchanged at 6,382 yuan per ton. The spot price (CFR China Taiwan) was $813.00 per ton, up 1.12%; the spot price (FOB South Korea) was $796.00 per ton, up 1.02%. The PXN spread was $208.50 per ton, up 1.05%; the PX - MX spread was $141.00 per ton, up 0.84% [1] - **PR**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PR's main contract was 5,840 yuan per ton, up 0.97%; the settlement price was 5,816 yuan per ton, up 1.04%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 5,874 yuan per ton, up 1.31%; the settlement price was 5,856 yuan per ton, up 1.00%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,790 yuan per ton, up 0.70%; in the South China market, it was 5,870 yuan per ton, up 0.69% [1] - **Downstream**: On September 25, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,475 yuan per ton, down 0.59%; the price index of polyester POY was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 0.72%; the price index of polyester FDY68D was 6,950 yuan per ton, down 1.42%; the price index of polyester FDY150D was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 1.44%; the price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,425 yuan per ton, up 0.23%; the price index of polyester chips was 5,755 yuan per ton, up 0.52%; the price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,790 yuan per ton, up 0.70% [2] Device Information - A 7 - million - ton PX plant in the Northeast has been under maintenance since September 18, with an expected maintenance period of about 45 days [2] Market Analysis - **PX**: Geopolitical and sanctions around Russia are the main factors driving international crude oil prices. The expected pressure of supply glut has not been reflected in the market, and oil prices were stagnant during the Asian session. The CFR China price of PX on September 25 was $817 per ton, and international oil prices continued to rise due to the decline in US crude oil inventories. The domestic PX operating load was stable, and the demand side was waiting for the implementation of the expected changes in PTA plants. The cost support led to a slight price recovery. The PX2511 contract closed at 6,674 yuan per ton (up 1.61%), with a trading volume of 185,500 lots. The increase in PX supply due to the increase in short - process production at home and abroad and the postponement of some plant maintenance was obvious, while the demand for PX decreased more than expected due to the delay of new PTA plant commissioning and multiple PTA plant maintenance. The supply - demand situation did not change significantly, and the PX profit would remain low in the short term [2] - **PTA**: The cost support slightly recovered, and the TA2601 contract closed at 4,678 yuan per ton (up 1.74%), with a trading volume of 701,000 lots. The sales of polyester filament on Wednesday evening were around 149% and 175% on Thursday, which was positive for the PTA market. The cost support was strengthened, and there was a strong expectation of PTA plant maintenance due to low processing fees. The leading polyester factories adjusted the production rhythm to stabilize market supply, but the production enterprises faced great pressure to sell at the end of the month. The new orders of weaving enterprises improved, and the shipment speed of grey cloth continued to improve, but the overall inventory pressure in the grey cloth market still existed, leading to the lack of confidence of downstream enterprises in the future market. As the National Day holiday approached, the sentiment in the downstream market was clearly divided, and some enterprises expected the market to improve after the holiday [2] - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang market was 5,800 - 5,900 yuan per ton, up 55 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The prices of PTA and bottle - chip futures rose, and the supply - side quotation of bottle chips mainly increased, but the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream terminals was not high, and the trading atmosphere was light. The PR2511 contract closed at 5,840 yuan per ton (up 1.46%), with a trading volume of 28,600 lots. The operating rate of the bottle - chip industry was expected to gradually recover, and the market supply of goods was relatively abundant. The purchasing intention of downstream terminals was not high, and the market trading atmosphere was light [2] Production and Sales and Operating Conditions - **Operating Conditions**: On September 25, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 85.57%, unchanged from the previous value; the load rate of PTA plants in the PTA industry chain was 78.12%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester plants was 87.81%, up 0.08 percentage points; the load rate of bottle - chip plants was 69.37%, up 0.27 percentage points; the load rate of Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms was 69.19%, up 1.64 percentage points [1] - **Production and Sales**: On September 25, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 175.16%, up 94.51 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 88.58%, up 21.54 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 152.51%, up 9.03 percentage points [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Various sectors in the market are exposed to diverse influencing factors and demonstrate distinct trends. For instance, in the macro - financial domain, the probability of central bank easing is increasing; in the black commodity sector, double - coke may continue to fluctuate and rise in the short term; in the agricultural product sector, supply pressure and weak demand are common challenges [12][14][25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The OECD predicts that the global economic growth rate in 2025 will be 3.2%, an upward adjustment of 0.3 percentage points from the June forecast, and remain at 2.9% in 2026. The economic growth expectations of the US, the Eurozone, Japan, and the UK have been slightly raised [9]. - Multiple Fed officials support replacing the current 2% inflation target with a target range. There are increasing differences within the Fed regarding the future monetary policy path [9]. - The US second - quarter current account deficit decreased by $188.5 billion, reaching the lowest level since Q3 2023 at $251.3 billion [10]. - The US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52, and the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9, with the composite PMI preliminary value at 53.6, all lower than expected and hitting a three - month low [10]. - The Eurozone September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line, while the service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding expectations [10]. - Indonesia and the EU signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement, aiming for it to take effect on January 1, 2027 [10]. - Argentina temporarily cancelled export withholding taxes on agricultural products such as grains, beef, and poultry until October 31 to increase dollar supply and stabilize the local currency exchange rate [10]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to consider buying on dips and mainly adopt a range - trading approach. The A - share market fluctuated widely. The probability of central bank easing in the future is increasing, and the market is currently in a state of shock [12]. Bond Futures - The strategy is to continue to consider steepening the short - end and ultra - long - end interest rate curves in the medium - to - long term. For the unilateral strategy, consider buying bonds on dips to bet on future monetary policy easing [13]. Black Commodities Coal and Coke - Double - coke prices may continue to fluctuate and rise in the short term. Attention should be paid to the demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" period for finished products and the downstream replenishment rhythm before the National Day [14]. Ferroalloys - For manganese silicon, the long - term trend is expected to be bearish on rallies as new capacity is being released. For silicon iron, it is also recommended to be bearish on rallies in the medium term due to an oversupply situation [15]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, maintain a bearish - on - rallies strategy, and be flexible to exit if a short - term positive feedback atmosphere emerges. For glass, it is advisable to wait and see for now [16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to remain at a relatively high level before the holiday, and it is recommended to wait and see at high levels. Alumina has increasing surplus pressure, and it is advisable to be bearish on rallies [18]. Zinc - After the macro - impact fades and the decline in overseas inventories slows down, zinc prices will fluctuate downward as supply increases and demand support is weak [19]. Lithium Carbonate - Supported by short - term inventory reduction, lithium carbonate will mainly operate in a wide - range shock without obvious driving factors [21]. Industrial Silicon - The market is trading the expectation of inventory reduction during the dry season in advance, and industrial silicon will operate in a shock - upward range with limited downward adjustment space [22]. Polysilicon - The market is mainly driven by policy progress. In the short term, the market is weak, and it is advisable to treat it as a wide - range shock and operate cautiously [23]. Agricultural Products Cotton - With complex upstream - downstream games, increasing supply pressure, and weak demand, it is advisable to be cautious when adopting a bearish - on - rallies strategy [25]. Sugar - The domestic sugar fundamentals are bearish. It is recommended to maintain a bearish strategy, but be cautious due to holiday - related capital fluctuations [27]. Eggs - With a high inventory of laying hens and limited capacity reduction, it is recommended to adopt a bearish - on - rallies strategy [28]. Apples - It is advisable to wait and see for now, paying attention to the weather in production areas and the opening price of new - season apples [29]. Corn - The strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options. The spot price shows a differentiated trend, and there is a supply gap expectation in the 2025/26 season [30][31]. Jujubes - It is advisable to be bearish on rallies as the market price is stable and consumption is weak [32]. Pigs - For near - month contracts, it is advisable to be bearish on rallies. The supply - demand pattern remains strong supply and weak demand, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [32]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - With geopolitical factors and a possible shift to a supply - surplus situation, it is advisable to consider shorting on rallies [35]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices as the support from geopolitical factors weakens [35]. Plastics - Polyolefins have large supply pressure and are expected to operate in a weak - shock pattern. It is advisable to consider a small - scale short position [38]. Rubber - Attention should be paid to the impact of typhoons on Hainan's rubber production areas and relevant policies [39]. Methanol - With large port inventory pressure, methanol is expected to continue to operate in a weak - shock pattern [40]. Caustic Soda - It is advisable to maintain a bearish strategy as the futures price is in a downward trend and deviates from the spot price [41]. Asphalt - Asphalt will follow crude oil prices as its own fundamentals are stable [42]. Offset Printing Paper - The market is expected to operate in a shock pattern. It is advisable to consider a long - position or sell - put strategy near the production cost line [44]. Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester chain products are expected to continue to operate in a weak - shock pattern due to a lack of fundamental drivers [45]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG supply is abundant. Although it may strengthen in the short term, it is advisable to maintain a bearish view in the long term [46]. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to operate in a shock pattern. Attention should be paid to port inventory reduction and spot transactions [47]. Logs - The market is expected to operate in a shock pattern. If price support is effective and downstream orders are good, it is advisable to consider a small - scale long position [48]. Urea - It is advisable to maintain a shock - trading strategy as the spot price lacks upward momentum and production is increasing [48]. Synthetic Rubber - The main contract is expected to operate in a weak - shock pattern. Be cautious when shorting on sharp drops [50].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefins closed down with a negative candlestick. The spot market of polyolefins is still mainly driven by supply - demand fundamentals. Currently, PE inventory is being slowly digested, and PP inventory has also improved. After the Fed's interest rate cut last week, the market declined due to concerns about future demand fulfillment. In the medium term, with the interaction of cost and supply - demand factors, polyolefins may continue to oscillate in a low - level range. In the short term, attention should be paid to the terminal stocking rhythm before and after the National Day holiday. After continuous declines, polyolefins may gradually stop falling this week [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7169, 7223, and 7250 respectively, with price drops of - 19, - 10, and - 30 and percentage drops of - 0.26%, - 0.14%, and - 0.41%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6914, 6958, and 6928 respectively, with price drops of - 12, - 5, and - 3 and percentage drops of - 0.17%, - 0.07%, and - 0.04% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 201711, 10840, and 74 respectively, and the open interests were 556313, 40101, and 92 respectively, with open - interest increases of 26840, 1877, and 25. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 230403, 18721, and 353 respectively, and the open interests were 609908, 73691, and 1589 respectively, with open - interest increases of 35189, 2630, and 14 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 54, - 27, and 81 respectively, compared to previous values of - 45, - 47, and 92. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 44, 30, and 14 respectively, compared to previous values of - 37, 32, and 5 [2] Raw Material and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2348 yuan/ton, 6625 yuan/ton, 591 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6750 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2364 yuan/ton, 6625 yuan/ton, 593 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6750 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream Spot Market**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 7150 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous ranges of 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6750 - 6900 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton, and 6700 - 6900 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous ranges of 6750 - 6900 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton, and 6700 - 6950 yuan/ton [2] News - On Friday (September 19), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.68 per barrel, down $0.89 or 1.40% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.6 - $63.65. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.68 per barrel, down $0.76 or 1.13% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.44 - $67.57 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures are running weakly. The spot market of polyolefins is mainly driven by supply - demand factors. The market heat has cooled down, and the inventory is slowly being digested after the previous rebound. The short - term petrochemical inventory may fluctuate, and the destocking process in summer is tortuous. However, domestic demand is the main driver at the macro level, and the terminal备货 demand may gradually pick up in the middle and late August. The focus should be on the autumn stocking market rhythm after supply - demand digestion and the potential changes in the cost side [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL and PP Futures Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7307, 7291, and 7268 respectively, with changes of - 27, - 21, and - 24 compared to the day before, and percentage changes of - 0.37%, - 0.29%, and - 0.33% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7016, 7032, and 6987 respectively, with changes of - 32, - 16, and - 39 compared to the day before, and percentage changes of - 0.45%, - 0.23%, and - 0.56% respectively [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 195031, 3873, and 54494 respectively, and the open interests were 360140, 18851, and 125736 respectively, with changes of 18234, 761, and - 22109 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 198360, 7393, and 50844 respectively, and the open interests were 416594, 28997, and 81393 respectively, with changes of 24874, 1950, and - 18050 respectively [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads of LL for January - May, May - September, and September - January are 16, 23, and - 39 respectively, compared to previous values of 22, 20, and - 42. For PP, the current price spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 16, 45, and - 29 respectively, compared to previous values of 0, 22, and - 22 [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2395 yuan/ton, 6410 yuan/ton, 560 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2400 yuan/ton, 6425 yuan/ton, 564 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Intermediate and Final Products**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton, 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6950 - 7050 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6850 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively, and the previous price ranges were 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6900 - 7100 yuan/ton [2]. News - On Tuesday (August 19), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.35 per barrel, down $1.07 or 1.69% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.25 - $63.39. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.79 per barrel, down $0.81 or 1.22% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.61 - $66.58 [2].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the polyolefin (LL&PP) futures and spot markets, providing data on prices, trading volumes, and inventories, along with market analysis and strategies [2]. Group 2: Market Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core View - Polyolefin futures are running weakly. The spot market is mainly driven by supply - demand. The market heat has cooled down, and the inventory is slowly being digested. It is in a stage of stopping the decline after the previous rebound. The destocking process in summer is tortuous, but the terminal备货 demand may pick up in mid - to late August. The key is to focus on the autumn stocking market rhythm and potential cost changes [2]. Group 4: Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7334, 7312, and 7292 respectively, with declines of - 17, - 34, and - 14 and percentage drops of - 0.23%, - 0.46%, and - 0.19%. For PP, the closing prices were 7048, 7048, and 7026, with declines of - 36, - 32, and - 32 and percentage drops of - 0.51%, - 0.45%, and - 0.45% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 210483, 3872, and 77466. The open interests were 341906, 18090, and 147845, with changes of 23091, 1252, and - 25485. For PP, the trading volumes were 198520, 7133, and 56805. The open interests were 391720, 27047, and 99443, with changes of 28363, 1051, and - 11273 [2]. - **Spread**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 22, 20, and - 42, compared to previous values of 5, 40, and - 45. For PP, the current spreads were 0, 22, and - 22, compared to previous values of 4, 22, and - 26 [2]. Group 5: Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2400 yuan/ton, 6425 yuan/ton, 562 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes from the previous values [2]. - **Intermediate Products**: For LL, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton. For PP, the ranges were 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6900 - 7100 yuan/ton, with some price changes from the previous values [2]. Group 6: News - On August 18, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.42 per barrel, up $0.62 or 0.99% from the previous day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.60 per barrel, up $0.75 or 1.14% from the previous day [2].

Report Overview 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - The oil market may shift to a weaker market dominated by pessimistic supply - demand fundamentals due to the weakening geopolitical risk premium and the expected loose supply - demand outlook after the peak season. The fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and LPG markets are all affected by the weakening of the oil market, with different market characteristics and trends [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SC09 contract dropping 2.24% during the day. Trump imposed a 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil, to be implemented in 21 days. But the risk of Russian oil supply has weakened, and the geopolitical risk premium has significantly decreased. The supply - demand outlook for crude oil after the peak season remains loose, and the oil market may turn to a weaker trend [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - SC led the decline in the oil product market, and the weakness of fuel - related futures continued. The arrival of fuel oil in the Asian market in August was abundant, and the ship - bunkering demand lacked support. The Singapore inventory remained high, and the diesel crack spread in Singapore continued to decline. The low - sulfur fuel oil market was weak, and the high - low sulfur fuel oil price difference continued to shrink [2]. Asphalt - SC led the decline in the oil product market. The asphalt supply - side increase space is currently considered neutral, and the demand has a weak reality but a repair expectation. The asphalt's unilateral trend follows crude oil, and the BU crack spread has rebounded significantly recently [3]. LPG - After the CP was lowered, the spot market was weak. The North American market was under pressure, and the import cost continued to put pressure on the domestic market. The domestic demand has bottom - support, and the LPG futures are running at a low level with the fundamental negatives having landed [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. Core Views of the Report Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period. Demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase. However, there are risks from non - aluminum demand pressure and rising valuations after cost reduction. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and try positive spreads for the 6 - 9 contracts [7]. - **PVC**: The recent rebound is due to macro - stimulus, export support, and supply - demand factors. But in the long - term, there is an obvious oversupply pressure, and potential negative factors exist. It is suggested to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling idea in the medium - term, with a resistance level of around 5100 for the 09 contract [7]. Crude Oil Industry - International oil prices are in a volatile trend, lacking strong drivers. The market is mainly affected by macro and supply factors. Short - term prices will continue to fluctuate, and the implied volatility is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, a trading - band strategy is recommended, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be observed. Attention should also be paid to the INE spread rebound opportunities and options' volatility - trading opportunities [12]. Styrene Industry - The recent rebound of styrene is due to tariff relief and low - inventory support. But high - price spot shows signs of weakness, and there are problems in the downstream and raw - material supply. It is expected to have more downward space, and the strategy is to short - sell at a high price around 7800 for the near - month contracts and pay attention to the widening opportunity of the EB - BZ spread [23]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply is increasing, and the supply - demand situation is marginally weakening. It is relatively resistant to decline in the short - term. The strategy is to pay attention to the support at 6500 - 6600 and try a reverse spread for the 9 - 1 contracts [27]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and the basis has declined. It is also relatively resistant to decline. The strategy is to pay attention to the support at 4600 and take a reverse - spread approach for the 9 - 1 contracts [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Supply is expected to contract, and inventory is decreasing. The strategy is to wait and see on the single - side and try a positive spread for the 9 - 1 contracts at a low price [27]. - **Short - fiber**: The processing fee may be repaired. The strategy is the same as PTA for the single - side, and the processing fee should be expanded at a low level [27]. - **Polyester Bottle - chip**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the processing fee is low. The strategy is the same as PTA for the single - side, and the processing fee should be expanded at the lower limit of the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range [27]. Polyolefin Industry - For LLDPE and PP, the supply of LLDPE is expected to decrease in inventory before early June, while the supply pressure of PP will increase after late May. Demand lacks sustainability. The strategy is to short - sell PP at a high price and pay attention to the expansion of the LP spread [31]. Methanol Industry - The port inventory is at a turning point, and the supply is increasing while the demand is in the off - season. The 09 contract's supply - demand situation is more relaxed. The strategy is to short - sell around 2300 - 2350 with a target of around 2100, and the MTO spread should be operated within 0 - 500 [34]. Urea Industry - The supply is at a high level, while the demand is under pressure from the decline of compound - fertilizer plants and stagnant agricultural fertilization. The short - term market is likely to move in a range after the decline [38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: On May 26, the 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2687.5 yuan/ton (in 100% equivalent), and the 50% was 2840 yuan/ton. The PVC market prices in East China were 4760 yuan/ton for the calcium - carbide method and 5000 yuan/ton for the ethylene method [2]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: For caustic soda, the FOB price at East China ports on May 22 was 405 dollars/ton, with an export profit of 32.1 yuan/ton. For PVC, the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 670 dollars/ton, and the export profit was 40.3 yuan/ton [3][4]. - **Supply**: The caustic - soda industry's operating rate on May 23 was 86.9%, and the PVC total operating rate was 73.1% [5]. - **Demand**: The alumina industry's operating rate on May 23 was 78%, and the PVC downstream pipe - making and profile - making operating rates were 45.3% and 39.6% respectively [6][7]. - **Inventory**: On May 22, the liquid - caustic soda inventory in East China factories was 19.1 tons, and the PVC upstream factory inventory was 38.7 tons [7]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On May 27, Brent was 64.71 dollars/barrel, WTI was 61.47 dollars/barrel, and SC was 455.90 yuan/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread was 3.24 dollars/barrel [12]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The market is affected by OPEC+ production policies, geopolitical factors such as the US - Iran nuclear talks, and macro - economic policies [12]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices**: On May 26, Brent crude oil (July) was 64.7 dollars/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha was 566 dollars/ton, and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was 780 dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot and Futures**: The styrene spot price in East China on May 26 was 7825 yuan/ton, and the EB2506 futures price was 7341 yuan/ton [21]. - **Overseas Quotes and Import Profits**: The styrene CFR China price on May 26 was 896 dollars/ton, and the import profit was 271.5 yuan/ton [22]. - **Industry Operating Rates and Profits**: On May 23, the domestic pure - benzene comprehensive operating rate was 71.6%, and the styrene operating rate was 69.3% [23]. Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: On May 26, Brent crude oil (July) was 64.74 dollars/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha was 566 dollars/ton, and CFR China PX was 834 dollars/ton [27]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On May 26, the POY150/48 price was 6990 yuan/ton, and the FDY150/96 price was 7275 yuan/ton [27]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: On May 23, the Asian PX operating rate was 69.4%, the PTA operating rate was 77.1%, and the polyester comprehensive operating rate was 95% [27]. Polyolefin Industry - **PE and PP Prices and Spreads**: On May 26, the L2505 closing price was 7008 yuan/ton, and the PP2505 closing price was 6888 yuan/ton [31]. - **Non - standard Prices**: The East China LDPE price on May 26 was 8930 yuan/ton [31]. - **Operating Rates and Inventories**: On May 23, the PE device operating rate was 78%, and the PP device operating rate was 76.8%. The PE enterprise inventory was 49.8 tons, and the PP enterprise inventory was 59.3 tons [31]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On May 26, the MA2501 closing price was 2293 yuan/ton, and the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line was 338 yuan/ton [34]. - **Inventory**: On May 23, the methanol enterprise inventory was 33.401 tons, and the port inventory was 49 tons [34]. - **Operating Rates**: On May 23, the Shanghai - domestic enterprise operating rate was 74.51%, and the downstream MTO device operating rate was 75.7% [34]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On May 26, the 01 - contract price was 1737 yuan/ton, and the spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 12 yuan/ton [38]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: On May 26, the price of anthracite small pieces (Dangcheng) was 1000 yuan/ton, and the price of steam - coal at the pithead (Ejin Horo Banner) was 418 yuan/ton [38]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: On May 23, the domestic urea daily output was 20.48 tons, and the factory inventory was 91.74 tons [38].