成长价值

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国电电力(600795):2025年秋季策略会速递:兼具高股息和成长价值的电力股
HTSC· 2025-08-28 08:33
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% for the years 2025-2027, with a minimum dividend per share (DPS) of 0.22 RMB, reflecting confidence in future operational development [7][8] - The company has a high proportion of long-term coal contracts, but during the coal price decline cycle, the comprehensive coal price has significant downward elasticity, with a year-on-year decrease of 87.46 RMB/ton (down 9.5%) in 1H25, exceeding market expectations [7][9] - The Dadu River project is entering a new production cycle, with new units expected to enhance the company's profitability [7][9] Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 162,037 million RMB, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.57% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 7,003 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a decrease of 28.77% year-on-year [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.39 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12.17 [6] - The company is expected to maintain a dividend yield of 4.93% in 2025 [6] Key Highlights - The company is one of the early adopters of mid-term dividends among power listed companies, enhancing predictability for investors [8] - The Dadu River hydropower project is expected to add 1,365,000 kW of capacity in 2025 and 2,155,000 kW in 2026, significantly increasing water power profits [9] - The projected net profit from the Dadu River project for 2025-2026 is expected to increase the company's water power net profit by 31% to 2,735 million RMB [9]