很多人现在一提到买房，第一反应还是价格。涨了不敢追，跌了不敢买，好像只要房价不再疯涨，一切 问题都会迎刃而解。但如果把时间拉长一点，站在10年后的角度回头看，可能会发现，真正让购房者头 疼的，未必是当初买贵了多少，而是一些更隐蔽、却更持久的现实难题。 房价只是表象，生活才是底色。未来10年，房子这件事，会慢慢从"值不值钱"，变成"扛不扛得住"。 难题一：房子还在，需求却变了 10年前，很多人买房时的设想很简单：结婚、生子、长期居住。但生活从来不会完全按计划走。工作城 市更换、家庭结构变化、父母养老、孩子教育，每一项变化，都会重新定义"合适的房子"。 问题在于，房子是固定的。10年后回头看，当初为了面积、为了价格、为了"先上车"买的房子，可能已 经不再符合当下的生活节奏。位置不方便、户型不灵活、周边环境老化，这些都会逐渐显现。 到那时，房子并不是没有价值，而是"不好用"。卖掉未必划算，继续住又处处别扭，这种不上不下的状 态，才是真正消耗人的地方。 难题三：流动性下降，想换却换不动 很多人会安慰自己：住几年不合适，大不了卖掉再换。但10年后的市场环境，未必支持这种想法。 难题二：居住成本悄悄抬高，却很难回头 很多 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant downturn in China's real estate market, which has seen property prices decline sharply since 2018, contrary to earlier predictions of continued growth [1][2] - The impact of this downturn varies greatly among different demographics, with homeowners primarily seeking residence feeling less affected compared to property investors facing severe financial challenges [2][19] Group 1: Market Trends - The overall trend in China's real estate market is a downward trajectory, with cities like Shanghai experiencing a price drop of over 30%, from a peak of over 90,000 yuan per square meter to around 60,000 yuan [1][2] - The second-hand housing market is flooded with listings, with Beijing reaching 147,000 and Shanghai nearing 170,000, indicating a significant oversupply [4][19] Group 2: Investor Challenges - Investors holding multiple properties face dire consequences, including being unable to sell their assets, leading to a situation where their investments become a financial burden rather than a source of wealth [4][5] - The liquidity of second-hand properties is declining, making it increasingly difficult for owners to sell quickly, even in urgent situations [7][8] Group 3: Financial Implications - The ongoing decline in property values is causing significant asset depreciation, with many homeowners seeing their properties lose value compared to their purchase price, leading to financial distress [8][19] - Rising holding costs, including property management fees and potential property taxes, are adding to the financial strain on property owners, particularly those with multiple properties [9][11] Group 4: Rental Market Dynamics - The rental market is becoming increasingly challenging, with the "rent-to-pay mortgage" model failing as rental prices drop, making it difficult for landlords to cover mortgage payments [15][19] - In major cities, the demand for rentals is decreasing due to economic pressures, leading to significant drops in rental income, further exacerbating financial difficulties for property owners [17][19]

Core Insights - The current real estate market has shifted from a previous trend of easy profits to a more cautious environment where buyers are selective and budget-conscious [1][3] - Certain types of properties are becoming increasingly difficult to sell, even if they seem attractive at the time of purchase [3] Property Types to Avoid - **Old and Deteriorated Properties**: These properties may seem affordable but often come with significant maintenance issues and reduced appeal due to limited land lease remaining, making them hard to sell in the future [5][7] - **High-Density High-Rise Areas**: While initially appealing due to amenities, these areas often suffer from poor living conditions, lack of sunlight, and intense price competition, making resale challenging [9][11] - **Non-Core Educational Areas**: Properties marketed as "school district homes" may not retain their value due to changing educational policies and potential distance from actual schools, leading to difficulties in resale [13][15] - **Proximity to Industrial Zones or Railways**: These properties are often cheaper but come with significant noise and air quality issues, limiting their appeal and resale potential [17][19] Conclusion - Buyers should carefully evaluate these property types to avoid potential pitfalls in the real estate market, as making the right choice now can lead to easier transactions in the future [21]

Core Insights - The article discusses the changing perceptions of homeownership in China, highlighting how individuals are selling their only homes due to financial pressures and shifting beliefs about real estate as a secure investment [2][10]. Group 1: Reasons for Selling Homes - Many individuals are selling their only homes to prevent wealth erosion and to access cash for essential expenses like medical and educational costs [1][13]. - Some are actively restructuring their asset portfolios to seek more liquid and safer investments amid market volatility [1][10]. Group 2: Personal Experiences - The stories of individuals like Dafu and Cao Mei illustrate the emotional and financial struggles associated with selling homes at a loss, with Dafu selling her home for 300 million after purchasing it for 360 million, resulting in a loss exceeding 100 million [4][10][16]. - Cao Mei sold her newly purchased home for 240 million, incurring a loss of over 30 million, reflecting the drastic changes in the housing market within a few years [7][9][10]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The article notes that the real estate market in China has experienced significant fluctuations, with many homeowners facing losses due to declining property values [10][18]. - The narrative emphasizes the shift from viewing real estate as a guaranteed investment to a more cautious approach, where individuals are reconsidering the necessity of homeownership [2][10]. Group 4: Emotional and Psychological Impact - The emotional toll of selling homes is evident, with individuals experiencing feelings of failure and loss of identity tied to their homes [3][5][14]. - The article highlights the struggle of adapting to rental living after selling homes, with individuals like Cao Mei and Dafu grappling with feelings of displacement and the challenge of creating a new sense of home [28][29]. Group 5: Future Perspectives - Some individuals, like Lin Qing, have found new opportunities and perspectives after selling their homes, leading to a reevaluation of what constitutes security and happiness in life [22][36]. - The article suggests a growing acceptance of renting as a viable alternative to homeownership, with individuals prioritizing flexibility and reduced financial burdens over traditional notions of stability [34][36].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the drastic changes in the real estate market over the past five years, highlighting the significant decline in property values and the shift in investment strategies, as predicted by Wang Jianlin, who emphasized the importance of understanding real estate as a living space rather than a speculative asset [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The real estate market is experiencing a stark division, with core assets in first-tier cities remaining relatively stable, while properties in third and fourth-tier cities are suffering severe value depreciation, with some areas seeing declines of up to 54.67% [2]. - Wang Jianlin's prediction from 2006 about the cyclical nature of real estate markets is being realized, as he noted that the prosperity of any country's real estate industry would not exceed 50 years, with China having approximately 20 years left [1][2]. Group 2: Property Valuation and Financial Implications - A hypothetical scenario for a property valued at 2 million yuan shows that after five years, costs could exceed 2.4 million yuan when accounting for interest, taxes, and maintenance fees, leading to significant financial losses [3]. - For properties purchased with a mortgage, the total expenditure could surpass 2.5 million yuan, resulting in a potential loss of 400,000 to 500,000 yuan if the property value remains stagnant [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to act decisively in selling properties in third and fourth-tier cities, particularly those lacking quality attributes, to mitigate losses [5]. - Maintaining ownership of high-quality properties located in core areas with good rental yields is recommended, as these assets are more resilient to market downturns [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses five types of properties that may become undesirable in the real estate market starting next year, highlighting the changing dynamics and risks associated with these properties [1]. Group 1: Types of Properties - Old and dilapidated school district houses are losing their appeal due to policy changes like multi-school zoning and teacher rotation, leading to a significant drop in value [1]. - Small property rights houses are problematic as they lack legal ownership certificates, making them vulnerable to disputes and government actions, which could result in financial losses for buyers [3]. - Large suburban houses are becoming less attractive due to long commuting times and inadequate local amenities, leading to difficulties in selling even at reduced prices [3]. - Commercial-residential mixed-use properties have short ownership periods and higher living costs, along with complex living environments that deter potential buyers [4]. - Properties with ownership disputes present significant risks, as unclear ownership can lead to legal troubles for buyers, making them hard to sell [6].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has experienced a significant downturn since 2021, with prices in some areas plummeting to unprecedented lows, highlighting the risks associated with investing in properties in economically stagnant regions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The once-booming real estate market has seen drastic price reductions, with some properties dropping from 40,000 yuan per unit to 3,000 yuan per square meter [1]. - In Zhangjiakou's Xiahuayuan District, properties can be purchased for as low as 1,000 yuan per square meter, a stark contrast to the peak price of 12,000 yuan per square meter in 2019, representing a 96% decline [6][8]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Price Decline - Aging properties and poor quality are significant factors, as many low-priced homes are old coal mine staff quarters, making them unattractive to buyers [8]. - An oversupply of new developments has saturated the market, leading to a decrease in property prices due to increased competition among sellers [8]. - The lack of supporting industries has resulted in severe population decline, from 100,000 residents a decade ago to only 60,000 today, which has further diminished demand for housing [8]. Group 3: Investment Lessons - Investors should avoid areas lacking industry support, population influx, and future prospects, as these regions pose high risks and potential for rapid depreciation [10]. - Proximity to major cities does not guarantee property appreciation; areas without economic foundations may become undesirable investments [10]. - Old properties, while seemingly cheap, may present significant challenges in terms of resale and rental potential, as their age can deter buyers and renters alike [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing interest of Chinese investors in purchasing properties in Japan, particularly in less urbanized areas, due to the high vacancy rates and lower prices compared to major Chinese cities [2][4][21]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of October 2023, Japan's residential vacancy rate reached a historical high of 13.8%, with approximately 9 million vacant homes nationwide [4][21]. - The trend of population outflow from smaller cities to larger urban centers has led to a phenomenon referred to as "Hegangization," where property prices in these areas decline significantly [4][21]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The article highlights the appeal of "中古屋" (second-hand houses) in Japan, which offer significant price advantages and attract young Chinese consumers seeking a romantic lifestyle [10][21]. - A specific case is presented where a photographer purchased a wooden house in Hokkaido for approximately 32,000 RMB, showcasing the affordability of properties in these regions [14][15]. Group 3: Challenges and Considerations - Foreign buyers face complex legal and regulatory challenges in Japan, including property registration and immigration policies, which can lead to potential legal disputes and economic losses [17][21]. - The article warns that many vacant homes may not receive adequate maintenance, leading to further deterioration and potential disputes with neighbors [22][24]. - New regulations in Japan require foreign property investors to register a local emergency contact, adding another layer of complexity for potential buyers [18][21].