Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with increasing listings but declining prices, leading to a "fire sale" mentality among homeowners [2][5][9]. Group 1: Market Trends - From 2021 to the present, the number of second-hand homes listed for sale has risen sharply, while prices have consistently decreased, causing distress among homeowners who purchased at peak prices in 2019 [2]. - As of early 2024, many homeowners are anxious to sell, fearing further depreciation of their properties, resulting in a wave of price reductions in the market [2][5]. - The expectation for significant price increases in 2026 is deemed overly optimistic, as the fundamental supply-demand dynamics remain unfavorable, with high inventory levels and declining new population growth [5][6]. Group 2: Price Predictions - The overall trend for housing prices in 2026 is likely to be a gradual decline rather than a dramatic increase or decrease, characterized by a stable and slow adjustment [8][9]. - The notion that policy changes will lead to immediate price surges is unlikely to materialize, as the current market conditions do not support such a scenario [8][9]. Group 3: Selling Strategies - The strategy of drastically reducing prices to sell homes quickly is not advisable, as it may lead to significant losses for homeowners who do not urgently need cash [9][10]. - An alternative strategy of "renting instead of selling" is suggested, as stable rental income can offset potential losses from declining property values, allowing homeowners to wait for better selling conditions [9][10]. Group 4: New Home Purchases - For potential new home buyers who are not in urgent need, it is recommended to wait and observe the market, as future policy changes may further lower purchasing barriers [12]. - The likelihood of a sudden spike in home prices during the observation period is low, making it a reasonable strategy to delay purchases [12]. Group 5: Market Risks - The real estate market's adjustment period may be longer than anticipated, with risks still present, as many areas continue to struggle with poor sales despite various encouraging policies [14][15]. - If significant price declines occur, properties may shift from being seen as assets to burdens, particularly if property tax policies are implemented [15]. Group 6: Conclusion - The real estate market is transitioning from a speculative environment to one focused on stable living and asset management, necessitating a realistic approach to market conditions and individual asset strategies [17].

01 房子卖不动几乎成了普遍现象 如今的房地产市场，越来越多人发现，即使选择降价，房子依旧难以卖出去。这已经不是什么个别现象，而是很多地方都面临的共同难题。从2025年上半 年开始，整个行业似乎进入了"艰难模式"。许多楼盘即使挂出低价，愿意下单的客户依然寥寥无几。跟几年前那种"开盘就抢光"的情景比起来，现在的冷 清简直形成了强烈反差。开发商们为了清库存，纷纷推出各种折扣和优惠，但如此"割肉"的效果却不尽如人意。 说到房价这事儿，在我们老百姓眼里，还真是个让人捉摸不透的谜团。一方面，谁也说不准它什么时候涨、什么时候跌，大家心里都没个谱，不知道该怎 么办才好；另一方面，总觉得自己特别渺小，好像只能随波逐流，最后成了房价起伏中的"炮灰"。然而，进入2025年上半年，越来越多的信号表明，房价 早就稳不住了！ 2026年的房价，恐怕真的要变天，而且变化幅度可能远超我们的想象。老话说得好，天狂必有雨，人狂必有祸。看看许家印的结局，似乎早有预谋，却又 在意料之中。许家印的"噩梦"成真，基本是迟早的事。到了现在这个地步，估计要来一场彻底的清算了。其实国家原本给过许家印机会，但他丝毫没有醒 悟，反而坑了无数买房人。两年时间里， ...

中国地产市场从2021年至今已调整4年，2025年6月末，70个大中城市新建住宅价格、二手住宅价格同比分别下跌3.7%、6.1%，新房价格环比连续25个月 负增长，6月末二手住宅价格环比上涨的城市仅有西宁1个。 这是几名普通深圳人的售房经历。他们的房产买在2017年至2020年间，那正是楼市最后的高光阶段，他们身处其中，很难不被烈火烹油的洪流裹挟。他们 选择回老家买房，最直接的原因是手中的首付款有限，当然，抱着回乡定居打算的人也占了多数。 他们从未在深圳拥有过房产，而那套位于老家、曾经寄托着他们对稳定的渴望和生活憧憬的房子，在他们亏损数十万出手时，都还是毛坯状态。 亏掉80万，解套老家房 今年8月份，在深圳生活的于襄，卖掉了位于武汉白沙洲片区的两居室。从2020年购入这套房产到今年最终出手，她前后去过白沙洲片区三次，房子卖出 时还是毛坯状态，算上房贷利息、税费、物业费等支出，她在这套房产上的亏损接近80万元。整个卖房过程持续了3个多月，从挂牌到成交，也是于襄一 步步降低心理预期的过程，"真正体验了什么叫买方市场"。 今年上半年，于襄在是否"割肉"的问题上摇摆不定，不少个夜晚她被折磨得失眠。做决策实在困难，五一 ...

本文来自微信公众号： 深圳微时光 ，作者：黄小邪，题图来自： 深圳微时光 以下文章来源于深圳微时光 ，作者黄小邪 深圳微时光 . 寻找深圳的每一寸惊喜。 中国地产市场从2021年至今已调整4年，2025年6月末，70个大中城市新建住宅价格、二手住宅价格 同比分别下跌3.7%、6.1%，新房价格环比连续25个月负增长，6月末二手住宅价格环比上涨的城市仅 有西宁1个。 这是几名普通深圳人的售房经历。他们的房产买在2017年至2020年间，那正是楼市最后的高光阶 段，他们身处其中，很难不被烈火烹油的洪流裹挟。他们选择回老家买房，最直接的原因是手中的首 付款有限，当然，抱着回乡定居打算的人也占了多数。 他们从未在深圳拥有过房产，而那套位于老家、曾经寄托着他们对稳定的渴望和生活憧憬的房子，在 他们亏损数十万出手时，都还是毛坯状态。 亏掉80万，解套老家房 今年8月份，在深圳生活的于襄，卖掉了位于武汉白沙洲片区的两居室。从2020年购入这套房产到今 年最终出手，她前后去过白沙洲片区三次，房子卖出时还是毛坯状态，算上房贷利息、税费、物业费 等支出，她在这套房产上的亏损接近80万元。整个卖房过程持续了3个多月，从挂牌到成交， ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the severe imbalance in the real estate market in Linzhou, a county-level city in China, where over 1 million housing units have been built for a population of approximately 330,000, indicating a supply far exceeding actual demand [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Linzhou's housing supply has reached nearly 7 times the estimated reasonable demand, with over 650,000 units completed as of March 2025, leading to a significant oversupply crisis [2][4] - The influx of 27 developers investing a total of 83.7 billion yuan in Linzhou from 2020 to 2025 reflects a speculative frenzy that has now turned into a precarious situation as market expectations shift [3][4] - The average price of second-hand homes in Linzhou has plummeted to 2,000 yuan per square meter, a nearly 70% decrease from its peak in 2018, indicating a drastic market correction [3][4] Group 2: Economic Implications - The reliance on land finance has led to 42% of Linzhou's total fiscal revenue coming from land sales between 2017 and 2022, significantly higher than the national average, which has fueled excessive real estate development [4][6] - The estimated value of idle housing resources in Linzhou exceeds 45 billion yuan, representing a substantial waste of resources that could have been better utilized in the local economy [8][9] - The decline in housing prices has resulted in many homeowners facing negative equity, with some unable to meet mortgage payments, highlighting the financial strain on residents [9][10] Group 3: Policy Responses and Future Outlook - In response to the crisis, the Linzhou government has initiated measures to halt new residential land supply and control new housing approvals, aiming to stabilize the market [11][12] - The article emphasizes the need for a shift in the real estate market towards a focus on housing as a necessity rather than a speculative asset, advocating for supply-side reforms and improved housing market systems [12][17] - The situation in Linzhou serves as a cautionary tale for other regions, underscoring the importance of adhering to economic principles and avoiding blind expansion in real estate development [15][19]