中国房地产市场正经历一场前所未有的转变，昔日炙手可热的楼市，如今却显露出"量价齐跌"的疲态。 与此相伴的，是二手房市场挂牌量的井喷式增长，这无疑加剧了未来房价下行的压力。 先来看看令人忧虑的数据。最新报告显示，5月全国百城新建商品住宅价格环比下跌的城市数量攀升至 54个，较4月增加了10个；而二手房价格环比下跌的城市数量更是高达83个，比4月增加了7个。这一连 串数字无不昭示着房价下行的趋势正在蔓延。 与此同时，房屋销售也面临着困境。新房成交量和成交面积双双萎缩，二手房市场同样一片低迷。以北 京和上海为例，5月北京二手房网签套数为1.21万套，环比下滑13%；上海二手房成交量则减少了2000 套，环比下降13.29%。 更令人担忧的是二手房市场的抛售潮。南京、成都、杭州等地的二手房挂牌量均突破历史记录，分别超 过17万套、19万套和21万套。北京、重庆、武汉、上海、合肥等城市也面临着巨大的抛售压力，挂牌数 量分别达到11万套、20万套以上、16万套。如此庞大的挂牌量，如同悬在楼市头顶的达摩克利斯之剑， 预示着潜在的房价下跌风险。 面对二手房挂牌量快速增加的局面，业内普遍认为，这既反映出部分投资者对未来楼市的信 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][24]. Core Insights - In September 2025, new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.6%. This marks a significant increase in the decline of new home prices compared to August [4]. - The number of cities with declining new home prices increased to 63, with an average decline of 0.47%, which is a 0.06 percentage point increase from August. All 70 cities experienced a decline in second-hand home prices, with an average drop of 0.64% [4]. - First-tier cities saw a month-on-month decline in new home prices of 0.3%, while second-hand home prices remained stable. The decline in second-hand home prices in first-tier cities was notably greater than in second and third-tier cities [4]. - The report suggests that the current housing market is under continuous downward pressure, with significant challenges in inventory reduction and weak consumer confidence. The market anticipates potential policy interventions [4]. Summary by Sections New Home Prices - In September, new home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3%, while second-tier cities saw a decline of 0.4%. Third-tier cities also experienced a 0.4% drop [4][8]. - Only 10% of second-tier cities reported stable or increasing new home prices, with Hangzhou and Changchun showing slight increases [4]. Second-Hand Home Prices - All 70 cities reported a decline in second-hand home prices, with first-tier cities experiencing a 1.0% drop, second-tier cities a 0.7% drop, and third-tier cities a 0.6% drop [4][15]. - The report highlights that the decline in second-hand home prices in first-tier cities has been greater than in lower-tier cities for five consecutive months [4]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on four main lines of investment: 1. Companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Binjiang Group and China Resources Land [4]. 2. Smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate Group [4]. 3. Companies undergoing operational or strategic changes, such as New Town Holdings and Longfor Group [4]. 4. Real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand housing market, including Beike-W and Wo Ai Wo Jia [4].