众所周知，从2022年开始，国内房价进入到长期下跌的趋势之中。先是像郑州、天津、石家庄等二三线城市房价开始下跌，后来上海、深圳等一线城市的房 价也加入到调整的队伍中来。在进入到2025年之后，房价下跌的趋势并没有改变。数据显示，全国二手房价格已连续下跌30多个月，7月份百城二手房价格 同比下跌7.32%。截止目前，全国平均房价跌幅超过30%。 实际上，李嘉诚和曹德旺的预言都已经告诉大家，2025年不买房，5年之后会庆幸。当然，对于今年该不该买房，这还要看具体的情况而定。如果你是刚需 家庭，面对现在房价较历史高位，已经跌去不少，以及楼市政策利好的到来，现在买房还是可以的。而对于投资购房者来说，未来房价还有继续下跌的空 间，现在投资买房的风险较大。这背后主要有以下3点原因： 首先，房子长期严重过剩，未来房价下行压力依旧较大。数据显示，全国有6亿栋房屋，可以容纳30亿人居住。此外，国内空置房数量超过1.2亿套，足够3.6 亿人居住。不仅如此，每年都还有上千万套新建商品房入市。显然，未来房子"供过于求"的情况将长期存在。 与此同时，国内各种救市政策却在不断出台。现在除了少数一线城市的核心区域之外，绝大多数城市都已经放 ...

Core Insights - The current real estate market in first-tier cities is experiencing a phenomenon of "panic selling," with a significant increase in property listings and a notable decrease in transaction volumes [1][5] - The overall trend indicates a downward trajectory for housing prices, driven by various factors including reduced demand for mortgages and ineffective government policies [3][7][8] Group 1: Panic Selling Phenomenon - In the past three months, there has been a 32.7% year-on-year increase in the number of second-hand homes listed in first-tier cities, while transaction volumes have decreased by 18.3% [1][5] - In addition to first-tier cities, second and third-tier cities are also witnessing a surge in listings, with cities like Chongqing exceeding 200,000 listings and some cities experiencing daily new listings that are five times the transaction volume [1][5] Group 2: Price Downward Trend - As of the first quarter of 2025, 53 out of 70 major cities in China have reported a month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices, with 12 cities experiencing declines greater than 1.5% [5][7] - The significant drop in housing prices is attributed to the loss of profit-making opportunities in the market, prompting many investors to liquidate their assets [5][7] Group 3: Decline in Mortgage Demand - There has been a sharp decline in the demand for housing loans, with new long-term loans for households amounting to 382.7 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, a decrease of 123.5 billion yuan or 24.4% year-on-year [7] - The decline in demand is primarily due to residents' income levels being insufficient to support high housing prices and a general pessimism regarding future price trends [7] Group 4: Ineffectiveness of Government Policies - Since 2024, various government measures aimed at stabilizing the housing market, such as lifting purchase restrictions and lowering down payment ratios, have had limited success in reversing the downward trend in housing prices [8] - The current market adjustment is characterized by a longer cycle compared to previous downturns, with an average price drop exceeding 30% since 2021 [11] Group 5: Characteristics of Current Market Adjustment - The current market adjustment has lasted three years, indicating a longer cycle compared to past adjustments [11] - The sequence of price declines has been evident, with second and third-tier cities experiencing initial drops followed by first-tier cities [12] - A significant number of real estate companies are facing bankruptcy or restructuring, with 27 major firms reported to have declared bankruptcy or entered restructuring as of April 2025 [15]

Core Insights - A recent survey indicates that 40% of potential homebuyers plan to delay or abandon their home purchase in 2025, a 17 percentage point increase from the same period in 2024 [1] - As of May 2025, China's total debt has surpassed 300 trillion yuan, equivalent to 2.8 times the GDP, indicating extreme leverage among residents and a continuing decline in homebuying demand [1] Group 1: Economic Environment - Many potential homebuyers are concerned about income growth uncertainty due to declining performance in the real economy, leading to layoffs and salary cuts [3] - The job market is shrinking, with 11.89 million university graduates competing for limited job opportunities, contributing to high unemployment rates [3] - The current environment has led families to postpone home purchases to avoid financial strain from potential job loss and mortgage payments [3] Group 2: Housing Market Trends - Home prices are in a long-term downward trend, with new residential property prices in 300 cities down 3.2% year-on-year and second-hand home prices down 5.1%, marking the third consecutive year of decline [5] - Buyers are typically reluctant to purchase in a declining market, fearing they may be trapped in a depreciating asset [5] Group 3: Household Financial Behavior - The proportion of household assets tied up in real estate is 77%, with over 41.5% of families owning two or more properties, indicating limited room for further leverage [8] - As of March 2025, the balance of real estate loans was 53.2 trillion yuan, growing only 1.5% year-on-year, the lowest growth rate since 2008, reflecting a rapid decline in loan demand [8] Group 4: Changing Buyer Sentiment - Post-pandemic, consumers are becoming more rational about home purchases, prioritizing savings over real estate investments, with 49.7% preferring to save money, the highest since 2015 [10] - The preference for purchasing property as an investment has dropped to 15.3%, the lowest on record, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards financial prudence [10]