Core Viewpoint - The era of real estate as the best investment has ended, and housing will return to its residential attribute, indicating potential downward pressure on housing prices to align with local residents' income levels [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The Chinese real estate market faces a long-standing supply-demand imbalance, with a total of 600 million existing homes, theoretically capable of accommodating 3 billion people, while 96% of families own at least one property [4] - The phenomenon of "unfinished buildings" is causing a severe trust crisis, as tight financing and poor sales lead to project stoppages, further eroding buyer confidence and increasing the risk of price declines [3] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Rigid housing demand is shrinking, with urbanization at 64% and an aging population that largely already owns homes, reducing the potential for new buyers [6] - The declining marriage rates among younger generations and a drop in newborns to 9.65 million last year are expected to significantly reduce the demand for new homes [6] Group 3: Affordability Issues - Residents' income levels are insufficient to support high housing prices, with average prices rising from 2,000 yuan per square meter in 1998 to a peak of 11,000 yuan per square meter, a 5.5-fold increase, while many families struggle with mortgage burdens [7] - As of September 2023, 99 cities have reported declines in second-hand housing prices, with over 90 cities experiencing price drops for four consecutive months, prompting government interventions to stimulate the market [8]

上个月我一位从事房地产中介十余年的朋友小张深夜给我发了条消息："这个月又有三个客户跟我说要 断供了，心里挺不是滋味的。" 我和小张认识多年，知道他一直兢兢业业，从不做虚假宣传，也不忽悠客户买卖房子。他说这是他从业 以来遇到的最艰难时期，许多购房者面临巨大的还贷压力，却又无法通过抛售房产来解套。 这让我想深入了解一下当前房地产市场的真实情况。近期我走访了多个城市的房地产中介、银行工作人 员和购房者，试图揭开"抛售潮迟迟没出现"背后的真相。 从市场数据来看，截至2025年8月，全国70个大中城市二手房价格指数连续18个月下跌，平均跌幅达 9.6%。按照传统经济学理论，价格持续下跌通常会引发恐慌性抛售，但奇怪的是，预期中的大规模"抛 售潮"并未如期而至。根据某大型房产平台发布的《2025年上半年房地产市场报告》显示，今年上半年 全国二手房挂牌量同比仅增长3.2%，远低于市场预期的10%以上。 这种现象背后有着复杂的原因。通过走访，我发现许多房主宁愿继续承受高额房贷压力，也不愿低价出 售房产。在北京工作的李先生告诉我："我2020年买的房子，现在市值已经跌了15%左右，如果现在 卖，不仅本金亏损，还要倒贴银行十几万。 ...

成都高新区人居盛和林语小区发生了一幕现代房产悲剧：一位业主购入146平方米房产仅19个月，账面 亏损高达259万元，相当于每天睁开眼睛就蒸发4500元。而同一个小区，九年前买入的业主却享受着 147%的资产增值。这种魔幻现实的背后，是中国房地产市场正在经历的深度价值重估。当潮水退去， 有人发现自己在裸泳，有人早已带着利润上岸，而更多人则被困在深浅不一的水域中挣扎。 中国房地产市场正在经历一场根本性的变革。人口负增长成为新常态，意味着买房的主力人群规模在缩 小。作为当前购房主力的00后，比90后少了4700万人。这种人口结构的变化，将对房地产市场产生深远 影响。代际观念也在发生深刻变化。越来越多的年轻人开始质疑是否值得用未来三十年的收入和生活品 质，去换取一套混凝土的"牢笼"。当"不买房就不能结婚"的观念成为过去式，当租房也能享受高品质生 活时，房地产的投资属性被大大削弱，回归"居住"本质成为必然。保障房供应增加正在改变市场格局。 广州天河区的陈先生正在经历这样的挣扎。他那套2019年以480万元购入的三居室，如今挂牌价降至290 万元，却仍无人问津。更残酷的是，他的手机银行APP里，剩余的房贷金额显示为312 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. real estate market is experiencing a significant disconnect, with home sales plummeting due to high borrowing costs and economic uncertainty, while home prices are reaching record highs [1][3] - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported a 2.7% year-over-year decline in existing home sales in June, totaling an annualized rate of 3.9 million units, the lowest since September of the previous year [1] - Despite the drop in sales, the median home price increased by 2% year-over-year to a record $435,300, indicating persistent high prices amid weak demand [1][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - A fundamental reason for high home prices is the prolonged supply shortage, as residential construction has not kept pace with population growth [3] - Although the inventory of homes for sale has increased recently, the sales slowdown has resulted in a supply level of 4.7 months, the highest since July 2016, failing to alleviate the supply-demand imbalance [3] - Many homeowners who locked in low mortgage rates during the pandemic are reluctant to sell, further constraining the supply of existing homes [3] Impact of High Interest Rates - Persistently high mortgage rates are a key factor suppressing sales activity, with many potential buyers unable to afford the current prices [5] - A brief decline in rates earlier in the year did not sustain, as rates rose again following economic announcements [5] - If mortgage rates were to drop to 6%, an estimated 160,000 renters could transition to first-time homebuyers, highlighting the sensitivity of demand to interest rate changes [5] Market Outlook - Economists generally foresee a bleak outlook for a recovery in the U.S. real estate market within the year, with expectations of continued stagnation [6] - Additional macroeconomic factors, such as high mortgage rates, affordability issues, a weak labor market, and uncertainty about future financial conditions, are contributing to the demand slowdown [7] - Potential policy changes, including proposals to eliminate capital gains tax on home sales, add further uncertainty to the market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian real estate market is showing signs of cooling as the 2025 federal election approaches, with increasing cost of living pressures and a decline in auction clearance rates, which have dropped to 64.2%, the lowest since mid-December 2024 [1][3]. Auction Market Dynamics - Sydney's preliminary clearance rate has decreased to 66.2%, while Brisbane recorded a low of 47.1%, the lowest in two years. Melbourne's clearance rate is relatively stable at 67.6%, but still indicates reduced market activity compared to earlier in the year [3][5]. - The overall number of properties sent to auction has declined, with clearance rates falling across most cities except Melbourne, reflecting a growing wait-and-see attitude among buyers and sellers [1][3]. Buyer Sentiment Analysis - Despite a temporary boost from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate cut in February 2025, buyer confidence has weakened, as indicated by declining auction clearance rates [3][7]. - Factors affecting buyer sentiment include policy uncertainty due to the upcoming federal election, which typically leads to a 5%-10% short-term decline in buying activity [9]. - Rising living costs, with key expenses like food and energy increasing over 5.6% year-on-year, are further straining household budgets and suppressing purchasing power [11]. Price Resilience - Despite declining auction clearance rates, property prices in major Australian cities are still experiencing slight increases, with the national residential price index rising 0.6% in March 2025 [14]. - The ongoing structural supply-demand imbalance, characterized by a significant drop in new residential approvals (down 8.4% year-on-year), continues to support price levels [14][15]. - Low holding costs for homeowners, who have locked in low mortgage rates, contribute to reduced selling pressure, particularly in core urban areas [14][15]. Future Outlook - The trajectory of the Australian real estate market will largely depend on monetary policy and political developments, with expectations of another interest rate cut by the RBA in May 2025 [17]. - The outcome of the federal election could significantly influence market sentiment, with potential policy changes impacting supply and demand dynamics [17]. - Long-term fundamentals such as population growth and urbanization will continue to support the market, especially in major cities where quality housing remains scarce [18].