深交所公告称，"21万科04"（149478）盘中成交价较前收盘价首次下跌达到或超过20%，根据《深圳证券交易所债券交易规则》和《关于对债券匹配成交实施盘中 临时停牌有关事项的通知》等有关规定，本所自今日10时11分55秒起对该债券实施临时停牌，于10时41分56秒复牌。 今日早盘，万科债普遍下跌，"21万科04"跌超20%盘中临停，"21万科06"和"23万科01"跌超12%，"21万科02"跌超7%。万科境内债"22万科02"跌幅达到20%，临时停 牌。 | 关于"22万科06"盘中临时停牌的公告 | 2025-11-26 | | --- | --- | | 关于"22万科04"盘中临时停牌的公告 | 2025-11-26 | | 关于"22万科02" 盘中临时停牌的公告 | 2025-11-26 | | 关于"21万科04"盘中临时停牌的公告 | 2025-11-26 | 在万科债大跌之后，H股——万科企业股价开始跳水，A股——万科A表现相对稳健。 那么，究竟发生了什么？ 大跌 11月26日，万科债普遍下跌，"21万科04"跌超20%盘中临停，"21万科06"和"23万科01"跌超12%，"21万科02 ...

Core Conclusions - The current real estate downturn is significantly influenced by non-demand factors, particularly changes in developer behavior, which have become more impactful than traditional demand-side explanations [3][23] - Unlike previous cycles where easing policies effectively stimulated sales, the demand-side policy effects have weakened since 2022, shifting the core contradiction from mere demand insufficiency to supply-side factors dominated by developer strategies and debt cycles [3][25] Industry Changes Due to High Turnover Model - The implementation of the "new house price limit" policy in 2018 marked a turning point, leading developers to abandon traditional slow turnover models in favor of high turnover strategies, which compressed the time from land acquisition to pre-sale, accelerating cash flow [4][28] - This high turnover model has resulted in significant inventory expansion and a shift in the debt structure of companies towards operational liabilities [4][39] - However, the sustainability of this high turnover model is challenged by increasing land acquisition difficulties in core cities, leading to an imbalance in land reserves and persistent cash flow pressures [5][44] Recovery Path - The recovery process is expected to start with credit repair among developers, gradually leading to price stabilization rather than an initial rebound in sales volume [6][80] - Observations indicate a reduction in credit risk and a moderate deleveraging among leading developers, while "long-tail developers" are showing resilience in sales and land markets, particularly in weaker second- and third-tier cities [6][105] Sales and Economic Challenges - The report forecasts that under optimistic assumptions, the national sales area of commercial housing will remain flat at 970 million square meters in 2025, with recovery largely dependent on the absorption rate of pre-sold properties [7][8] - Despite improvements in certain areas, the overall drag of real estate development investment on the economy is expected to persist due to the time required for price stabilization to translate into new construction and recovery [7][8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on industry leaders maintaining land acquisition intensity, such as China Overseas Development and Poly Developments, as well as companies with improving operational conditions like Gemdale Corporation [8][8]