老马说，以后房子比葱还便宜， 这话在以前，大家只当他是说笑话，没人在意。然而伴随着调整周期的打开，房价下行已经不是搞笑段子，成为实打实的现实。 就比如现在，你要是走在大街上，中介门店都会有各种各样关于"急售"，"直降多少万"的广告语。 曾经总觉得房子越多，财富就越多，然而如今呢，房子被一些人视为烫手的山芋，唯恐避之不及。核心是啥？不仅仅是需求大不如前，还有二手房抛售愈 演愈烈，甚至有网友坦言，一场史无前例的房子抛售大潮，在席卷全国各地… 啥情况？会有啥后果？看看… 01. 抛售大潮席卷各地 讲到房子的抛售大潮，咱就看看最近大佬们的动作： 最近，王思聪正在卖他在上海核心地段的豪宅，当初买加装修据说花了8500万，现在挂牌5200万，一算账，净亏3300万； 李嘉诚也在动作频频，他旗下的公司最近在广州、东莞几个城市一口气推出400套房，最便宜的只要40万一套。 由此可见大佬们甩卖住房的决心。 02. 为啥大佬们的抛房热情这么高？ 第一，人口天花板：增长停滞，需求放缓 大佬们都在果断卖房，普通人也没闲着。 很多炒房客、投资客都在抢着出货。数据显示，今年全国二手房的挂牌量已经超过750万套——这个数字确实有点吓人。 ...

Core Insights - The report by Goldman Sachs predicts a potential price increase in the real estate market of six major urban clusters in China by 2027, driven by economic restructuring, population migration, and urbanization [2][3][19] - The report highlights a significant regional differentiation in the real estate market, with the six urban clusters expected to outperform the national average in price recovery [3][13] Regional Analysis - **Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei**: The region is expected to benefit from strong policy support and a reversal in population outflow, with a projected net growth rate of 0.3% starting in Q1 2025. The number of high-tech enterprises surged by 17.3% in 2024 [3][4][5] - **Yangtze River Delta**: This area, with a GDP share of 24.7% of the national total, is predicted to see a cumulative price increase of 12.6% by 2027, bolstered by a 21.5% rise in patent applications in 2024 [5][6] - **Pearl River Delta**: The region is benefiting from the rapid development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, with a projected price increase of 13.7% by 2027, supported by a 9.2% year-on-year growth in foreign investment [6][7] - **Chengdu-Chongqing**: This western economic hub is expected to see an 11.5% price increase by 2027, driven by a GDP growth rate of 7.3% in Q1 2025, which is above the national average [7][8] - **Central Plains**: The region is projected to experience an 8.2% price increase by 2027, supported by a 16.8% growth in infrastructure investment and a 13.5% increase in high-tech industry value added in 2024 [8][9] - **Yangtze River Middle Reaches**: This area is expected to see a 9.3% price increase by 2027, with a reported 8.7% growth in industrial output value in 2025 [9][10] Driving Forces - The anticipated price increases in these urban clusters are underpinned by strong industrial upgrades and population influx, with high-tech enterprises accounting for 68.3% of the national total and an average R&D investment intensity of 3.2% [10][11] - The net population growth rate in these urban clusters averages 0.8%, significantly higher than other regions, indicating a strong attraction for young labor due to quality public resources [10][11] Policy and Financial Support - The Chinese government is actively promoting a new real estate development model focused on housing for living rather than speculation, with measures such as reduced down payment ratios and adjustments to mortgage rates [11][14] - The real estate-related loan balance reached 53.7 trillion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, indicating a supportive financial environment for market recovery [14][15] Conclusion - Overall, the report reflects a significant transformation in China's real estate market, emphasizing quality and efficiency over rapid growth. The six urban clusters are expected to lead the recovery, with a focus on sustainable development and the return to housing's fundamental purpose [16][17][19]

Core Insights - A prime land parcel in Beijing was sold for an unprecedented price of 20.1 million yuan per square meter, setting a new record in China's land market and igniting concerns about potential surges in housing prices [1][10] - The emergence of this "land king" raises questions about whether it is an isolated incident or indicative of a broader market trend [1][17] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The land parcel, located in Beijing's central business district, has a total construction area of approximately 28,000 square meters and was acquired for 5.628 billion yuan, reflecting a strong confidence from major developers in core locations [1][10] - Historical data shows a correlation between the emergence of "land kings" and subsequent increases in housing prices, with a notable example being the 2016-2017 period when 42 "land kings" were recorded, leading to an average housing price increase of 27.3% [3][16] - Current market conditions differ significantly from past trends, with a notable increase in land auction failures and a decline in average land prices across 300 cities, indicating a cooling market [4][12] Group 2: Policy and Regulation - The central government has reinforced the "housing is for living, not for speculation" policy, with 37 cities implementing stricter regulations this year, which contrasts with the previous land auction frenzy [3][15] - Local governments are adjusting land sale strategies to alleviate fiscal pressures, with 72 cities modifying their land sale policies, including price reductions [12][15] Group 3: Buyer Behavior and Market Segmentation - The buyer demographic is shifting, with first-time homebuyers now making up 67.3% of the market, while investment demand has dropped to a historic low of 7.9%, indicating a return to the fundamental residential nature of housing [6][13] - There is a stark contrast in land market performance between first-tier cities and third- and fourth-tier cities, with first-tier cities seeing an 8.7% increase in land transaction volume, while third- and fourth-tier cities experienced a 15.2% decline [4][10] Group 4: Future Outlook - The future of housing prices is expected to diverge, with first-tier cities likely to see gradual price increases due to limited land supply and ongoing population inflow, while third- and fourth-tier cities may face downward pressure [20][18] - The overall trend suggests that the era of widespread price increases is over, with market segmentation and structural optimization becoming the new norm [20][14]