一个老朋友最近跟我说起了他的烦恼。他从2015年开始炒房，在房价暴涨的那个年代里，买了三套房子。那时候不管买什么都赚钱，有的房子一年就涨了五 十万。他也是心满意足，觉得这就是最稳妥的理财方式。到了2021年，他的三套房产估值加起来大概有一千万出头。他经常开玩笑说，这辈子不用工作了， 房子就能养活他。但现在的情况完全不一样。到了2025年，同样的三套房子，估值已经跌到了八百万左右。每个月的房贷、物业费加起来有两万多块钱，但 租金收入才五六千块。他现在每个月都得贴钱进去，日子过得紧巴巴的。他最近甚至考虑要降价抛售其中一两套房产来缓解压力。他这样的情况，在许多炒 房客里就是常态。但真正的问题不止他个人的困难，而是这种困难可能在2026年会变成一股巨大的抛售潮。好几家研究机构都在预测，2026年房地产市场会 出现新的转折点。这个转折点看起来不像是房价反弹的开始，反而像是一个更深层次的调整期的到来。 多家机构已经给出了明确的预测。中信建投研报认为，参考国际经验，海外房价下行周期在5到10年左右，跌幅在20%到40%左右。中国房价已经连续下跌 三年，目前跌幅接近15%。按这个节奏来看，房价还有下跌空间。瑞银也在调整预期， ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate investment in Japan is experiencing significant growth, with a 22% year-on-year increase in the first half of 2025, surpassing 3 trillion yen for the first time since 2007, driven by low interest rates and rising rental expectations [2][7]. Investment Trends - Real estate investment in Japan reached 3.1932 trillion yen in the first half of 2025, marking a 22% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - Tokyo ranks first among global cities for real estate investment, with overseas investors increasing their purchases by 3.7 times, accounting for 34% of Japan's total real estate investment [5][7]. Sector Analysis - Office buildings represent 53% of the total real estate investment in Japan, with significant transactions occurring in Tokyo's central areas [4]. - Major transactions include Mitsubishi Estate's acquisition of the Akasaka Park Building and Wacoal's sale of its building in Kyoto, indicating a trend of asset sales among companies [4]. Regional Insights - The five central districts of Tokyo (Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku, Shibuya) accounted for 56% of the investment, the highest since the first half of 2018 [5]. - The Osaka region's share of investment decreased to 10%, down from 21% the previous year, as hotel investment demand related to the Osaka Kansai Expo has subsided [5]. Future Outlook - JLL forecasts that Japan's real estate investment will approach 6 trillion yen in 2025, with financial institutions maintaining a positive stance on real estate financing [7]. - The current investment return rate for A-grade office buildings in Tokyo's central districts is between 2.0% and 2.5%, with expectations of slight increases if interest rates rise further [7].