大摩闭门会：邢自强、Laura Wang：2026 经济与市场展望 251117 摘要 美国经济 2026 年上半年或略有放缓，但 AI 投资将提供支撑，下半年逐 步修复，2027 年通胀趋稳，生产率显著提升。美联储倾向鸽派，预计 降息至 3%-3.25%后观望，新任主席或更注重货币政策保增长。 美国政府采取高增长、高通胀策略化解债务，类似二战后模式，通过收 益率曲线控制压低利率，大规模财政刺激鼓励经济增长，大规模 AI 基建 投资以及持续强劲的财政刺激措施。 中国 2026-2027 年将从通缩过渡到低通胀，财政政策或下半年加码应 对房地产挑战，货币政策依赖定向工具。反内卷制度化、统一大市场建 设和房地产改革将促进经济平衡发展。 中国版房利率通过财政贴息降低按揭利率，刺激消费并维护金融稳定， 有望在 2026 年下半年推出。大幅降低按揭利率可以使租金回报率优于 按揭利率，从而改善房地产市场预期。 2026 年看好风险资产，建议做多股票，首选美股，其次是日股和欧股， 低配新兴市场。预计标普 500 指数年底达 7,800 点，年化盈利增长 15%。 预计 2026 年民生中国指数盈利增长 6%，维持 13 倍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for income distribution reform and welfare system construction to alleviate household financial risks, thereby stimulating real consumption and investment willingness as a fundamental path for economic growth [4][6][24]. Group 1: Economic Challenges and Reforms - The concept of "anti-involution" signifies a restructuring attempt of institutional design and social ecology, addressing issues like low-level competition and unfair practices [4][6]. - Current economic challenges in China include low consumer willingness and insufficient investment motivation, necessitating a focus on household financial stability and risk resilience [5][6][12]. - The historical reliance on export-driven growth has suppressed wage and consumption growth, leading to a conservative consumption trend and limited domestic demand [7][11][24]. Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Development - The analysis framework includes three historical long cycles: globalization, hegemonic shifts, and technological revolutions, which collectively influence economic dynamics [7][8]. - China's reform and opening-up coincided with a global shift from protectionism to market forces, allowing it to integrate into the global production system and achieve rapid growth [8][9]. - The export-oriented growth model has led to wage suppression and inadequate social security, creating structural liabilities that are now evident in the face of external shocks [11][12]. Group 3: The Role of Welfare State - Establishing a welfare state is crucial for addressing the challenges posed by the technological revolution, particularly the impact of artificial intelligence on labor distribution [17][24]. - The welfare state aims to reduce the risk burden on residents, encouraging consumption and fostering a robust domestic market [24][25]. - Without a welfare state, sustaining consumer spending becomes difficult, which in turn affects the strength of the domestic market and China's position in international economic governance [25]. Group 4: Real Estate and Economic Growth - The relationship between real estate and economic growth is undergoing a transformation, with diminishing returns on investment in the real estate sector [18][19]. - The current economic environment necessitates a reevaluation of resource allocation, particularly in light of the limited fiscal space and rising local government debt [20][21]. - The shift away from real estate as a primary growth driver could allow for more strategic investments in emerging industries, enhancing overall economic resilience [19][20]. Group 5: Regional Disparities and Open Market - Addressing regional disparities is essential for further opening up the market and achieving common prosperity, as balanced regional development supports higher levels of external engagement [21][22]. - The article suggests that fostering investment in underdeveloped regions through new special economic zones could effectively address wealth distribution issues [22][23]. - The dual focus on internal circulation and market openness is vital for navigating the complexities of the current global economic landscape [23][24].