以下文章来源于阿尔法工场金融家 ，作者银妹妹 导语："不抽贷、细甄别"，正是当前银行应对房地产风险的主流路径。作为区域性重要银行，一旦信 用收缩引发连锁反应，其面临的风险传导压力远大于同业。 一边是20亿元中票展期陷入"零支持"困局，债权人博弈进入白热化；另一边却是子公司2000万 元贷款平稳续贷，担保措施清晰明确。万科这一组看似矛盾的债务境遇，构成了理解当前房地产 风险处置逻辑的样本。 12月15日，万科20亿元中票"22万科MTN004"三份展期方案在首次持有人会议上全数被否，其 无条件展期议案支持率更是低至0%。 "22万科MTN004"超85%由银行持有，公募或私募机构占比超10%，万科境内债持有人整体以 银行和理财子公司为主。 万科在12月18日召开第二 次持有人会议，重点讨论追加深圳国企担保等增信措施，争取在5个工 作日宽限期内避免实质性违约。 阿尔法工场金融家 . 追踪保险银行业圈内动态，剖析最新风向，分享有料、有价值的"内行人"洞察见解。 究其根源，南京银行的资产质量早已与房地产市场的平稳运行深度绑定。 就在债券市场博弈升级的前两天，12月13日，万科旗下子公司上海筑浦信息技术有限公司经申 请 ...

Core Insights - The auction market for judicial properties in October 2025 continued to show high transaction volumes, with a total of 5,169 units sold, representing a 3% month-on-month increase and an 8% year-on-year increase [1][6] - The transaction rate for judicial properties reached 21.4%, up 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to a relatively high level for the year [1][13] - A record-breaking transaction occurred for a villa in Shenzhen, which sold for 364 million yuan, with a premium of 69.5%, setting a new record for judicial property prices in Shenzhen [2][4] Transaction Details - The villa in question has a building area of 639.35 square meters and was sold at a unit price of 57.09 million yuan per square meter, surpassing similar properties in Beijing and Shanghai [2][4] - The auction attracted over 200,000 viewers and started with a minimum bid of 215 million yuan, with six high-net-worth buyers participating, leading to 118 rounds of bidding [2][4] - The property was originally purchased for 188 million yuan in December 2010, indicating a significant appreciation in value over 14 years [4] Market Trends - In October, the total transaction amount for judicial properties reached 5.9 billion yuan, with 66% of properties sold at a premium [6][9] - Shenzhen led the market with a transaction amount of 840 million yuan, followed by Shanghai at 580 million yuan and Hangzhou at 440 million yuan [9] - The auction of a high-end club in Xiamen also saw a high premium, selling for 112 million yuan, reflecting strong demand for premium assets [12] City Performance - Guangzhou had the highest number of judicial property transactions at 205 units, with Wenzhou, Hangzhou, and Ningbo following closely [9] - Shenzhen's transaction rate was the highest among major cities at 45%, with several other cities also exceeding 30% [16] - The trend of ordinary second-hand properties being sold through judicial channels is becoming more common, with 9.4% of transactions being normal sales, indicating a shift in the market dynamics [19]

Core Viewpoint - The auctioned properties in October showed a significant decrease in supply, with 66% of properties sold at a premium, marking a new low for the year [3][19][31]. Supply and Auction Volume - The number of properties listed for auction decreased significantly, with 29,000 new listings, a 31% decrease month-on-month and a 13% decrease year-on-year, marking the lowest level since the second half of the year [3][12]. - The total starting price for these listings was 27.1 billion, down 33% from the previous month [12]. - In terms of city performance, Chongqing led with 1,430 listings, while major cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen had 360 and 215 listings respectively [15]. Transaction Volume - The transaction volume remained high, with 5,169 properties sold, a 3% increase month-on-month and an 8% increase year-on-year, continuing a trend of over 5,000 transactions for three consecutive months [3][18]. - The total transaction value reached 5.9 billion, reflecting a 4% increase from the previous month [18]. Transaction Rate - The national average transaction rate was 21%, showing a recovery trend [6][25]. - Cities like Shenzhen had a transaction rate of 45%, significantly higher than the national average, while Suzhou saw a drastic drop to 4% due to a high number of unsold properties [30]. Premium and Discount Rates - The average premium rate for auctioned properties was 9.7%, with only 10% of properties sold above their appraised value, indicating a trend towards lower premiums [3][31]. - The average discount rate for sold properties was 32.7%, with a notable increase in the willingness of sellers to lower prices [35]. Market Outlook - The market is witnessing an increase in the number of normal transactions through auction channels, with approximately 9.4% of sold properties being regular assets, which had a median premium rate of 28 times [8]. - High-value properties are entering the auction market, with notable examples including a villa sold for 3.6 billion and a club sold for 1.12 billion, both achieving significant premiums [9][24]. - The current real estate inventory is at a critical level, necessitating the use of auction properties as a key method for risk management and inventory reduction [10].