市场偏好短端下沉，而非拉久期 [Table_Authors] 张紫睿(分析师) 信用债市场周度回顾 251122 本报告导读： 本周信用债交投情绪降温，机构交易行为趋保守，市场偏好短端下沉强于拉久期； 信用债整体表现均衡，5Y 内各期限信用利差已来到年内低点。 投资要点： | | 021-23185652 | | --- | --- | | | zhangzirui@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040068 | | | 王宇辰(分析师) | | | 010-83939801 | | | wangyuchen4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523020004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 美元流动性收紧何时缓解 2025.11.18 大行短端买入力度减弱 2025.11.18 本轮移仓有何特征和机会 20251117 2025.11.17 大行融出回落，存单发行提升，6M 期限最多 2025.11.17 地方债发行渐入尾声 2025.11.17 证 券 研 究 报 告 略 周 报 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.23 [Tab ...

2025 年 11 月 23 日 站完人行业市 相关研究 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 住建部召开城市更新推进会，广州再启动存量商品房收储 － 地产及物管行业周报（2025/11/15-2025/11/21） 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ● 地产行业数据：新房成交环比回升，二手房成交环比回落，新房成交推盘比回升。上周(11.15- 11.21)34 个重点城市新房合计成交 254 万平米，环比+26.3%，其中，一二线环比+28.6%，三四线 环比-5%。11 月(11.1-11.21)34 城一手房成交同比-33%,较 10 月-6.4pct。其中,一二线同比- 31.5%，三四线同比-46.4%，分别较 10 月-6.6pct 和-5.8pct。 上周 13 城二手房合计成交 107.3 万平 米,环比 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the total bond custody scale increased by 131.24 billion yuan month - on - month, ending the two - month trend of less growth. The rebound of inter - bank certificate of deposit custody scale was the main driving force, while the custody increment of interest - rate bonds declined significantly [3][6]. - The bond market performance eased in October. Long - term interest rates showed a recovery trend, and dropped significantly after the central bank announced the restart of treasury bond trading on the 27th. Trading desks' enthusiasm for bond buying increased significantly, while the allocation willingness of allocation - type institutions declined [3][10]. - Due to the increase in institutions' borrowed funds, the bond market leverage ratio increased slightly by 0.1 pct to 107.4% in October, remaining at a relatively low level. Non - bank institutions' leverage ratio increased, but the absolute level was still not high [3][37]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 10 - month Bond Custody Increment Rebounds, and Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit Net Financing is the Main Support - The total bond custody scale increased by 131.24 billion yuan month - on - month in October, with the inter - bank certificate of deposit custody scale turning from decline to increase for the first time since June this year. The net financing scale of short - term commercial paper and medium - term notes increased, while the custody increment of interest - rate bonds decreased significantly [3][6]. - For interest - rate bonds, the custody increment of treasury bonds, local bonds, and policy - bank bonds all decreased compared with the previous month. For credit bonds, the custody increment of short - term commercial paper and medium - term notes increased, while that of enterprise bonds and PPN continued to decline [6]. The Central Bank Restarts Bond Buying, Market Sentiment Improves, and the Willingness of Trading Desks to Increase Bond Holdings is Significantly Restored - In October, the bond market performance eased. After the central bank announced the restart of treasury bond trading, long - term interest rates dropped significantly. The trading desks' enthusiasm for bond buying increased, while the allocation willingness of commercial banks and insurance companies declined [10]. - **General Funds**: The bond custody scale increased by 104.45 billion yuan month - on - month, turning to increase holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit, medium - term notes, and short - term commercial paper, and reducing the scale of selling financial bonds [15]. - **Securities Companies**: The bond custody volume increased by 134.8 billion yuan month - on - month, reaching a new high since July 2024, mainly due to a large increase in holdings of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds [17][19]. - **Insurance Companies**: The bond custody volume decreased by 450 million yuan month - on - month, mainly due to the reduction of holdings of treasury bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit [22]. - **Overseas Institutions**: The bond custody scale decreased by 5.42 billion yuan month - on - month, with an increased scale of selling domestic bonds, but turning to increase holdings of treasury bonds and reduce holdings of policy - bank bonds [24][25]. - **Other Institutions**: The bond custody volume increased by 35.56 billion yuan month - on - month, with an increase in holdings of treasury bonds and certificates of deposit, and a decrease in holdings of policy - bank bonds [27]. - **Commercial Banks**: The bond custody scale decreased by 25.14 billion yuan month - on - month, mainly due to a significant decrease in the scale of increasing holdings of treasury bonds and an increase in the scale of reducing holdings of local bonds [30]. - **Credit Unions**: The bond custody scale decreased by 206 million yuan month - on - month, mainly due to the reduction of holdings of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds [34]. In October, the Non - bank Leverage Ratio Increased Beyond Seasonality, but the Absolute Level was Still Not High - In October, the bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.1 pct to 107.4% month - on - month, remaining at a relatively low level. The non - bank institutions' leverage ratio increased by 0.3 pct to 117.2%, but the absolute level was still not high in the past three - year dimension [37]. - Among them, the securities companies' leverage ratio decreased by 3.3 pct to 219.9%, while the leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal person products increased by 0.3 pct to 114.0% [37].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing integration of state-owned enterprise reform and regional economic development in Guicheng, Foshan, showcasing a shift from being "capital beneficiaries" to "industry chain enablers" through a diversified financing system [1]. Group 1: Diverse Financing Solutions - Guicheng has adopted a "policy funds + state-owned capital operation" dual-driven strategy to address funding needs for key projects, urban renewal, and ecological governance, facilitating continuous financial support for regional development [3]. - A significant collaboration with the Guangdong branch of the National Development Bank has been established, resulting in a landmark project with a funding amount of 30 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing living conditions and infrastructure [3]. - Guicheng has secured a special loan credit of 9.5 billion yuan for urban village renovation, becoming a national model for utilizing special loans at the town level [6]. - The region has also achieved breakthroughs in direct financing, with the issuance of 500 million yuan in corporate bonds by Guicheng Investment Development Co., marking it as the first local entity to enter the capital market for "super street" projects [6]. Group 2: Precision Empowerment and Quality Improvement - Guicheng has established a matrix of specialized funds targeting emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and biomedicine, with five funds set up to support project implementation and equity exit [9]. - A town-level science and technology direct investment fund has been launched, with an initial scale of 100 million yuan, aimed at alleviating financing difficulties for startups, resulting in investments in 12 companies totaling 56 million yuan [11]. - In the mixed-ownership reform sector, Guicheng has implemented targeted investments to deepen the integration of state capital with industry and public welfare, including the establishment of a joint venture in the cultural tourism sector that has generated significant consumer engagement and revenue [14][16].

Group 1 - The report suggests that in the absence of strong expectations for short-term interest rate cuts, both long-term government bond yields and short-term deposit rates are unlikely to decline significantly. The market currently does not anticipate easing of short-term funds or a reduction in LPR [1][8][37] - It is recommended to focus on two strategies for portfolio construction: 1. Opt for slightly lower duration for defensive positioning, waiting for a rate adjustment of around 5 basis points before considering extending duration; 2. Maintain a market-neutral or slightly longer duration stance, with risk exposure suggested to be placed in active bonds where spreads can compress, such as government bonds and ultra-long government bonds [1][8][40] Group 2 - For bond selection, the report emphasizes prioritizing long-term interest rate bonds, particularly focusing on 250215. If there is a higher frequency demand for duration adjustment, 25T6 should be considered. For higher yield bonds like 25T5 and 25T3, attention should gradually decrease as spreads compress further [2][10][12] - In the context of credit bonds, the report notes that the spread between 3-5 year credit bonds and government bonds is already low, indicating limited room for further compression. It is suggested to focus on mid-term government bonds for short-term capital gains, while mid to long-term credit bonds may offer better value for long-term holding [3][13] Group 3 - The report indicates that the current overall IRR level of government bond futures is slightly higher than the funding rate, with most futures contracts being relatively expensive compared to cash bonds. The strategy of focusing on the compression of spreads between government bonds and government-backed bonds is recommended [4][14] - The report highlights that the bond market has maintained a volatile trend, with government bonds showing stronger performance. Despite weak financial and economic data in October, interest rates have not significantly declined, and the market sentiment towards bonds remains cautious [15][20]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a focus on high-quality corporate long-duration bonds and suggests a flexible investment strategy to adapt to market conditions. Core Insights - The Chinese credit bond market has formed with non-financial credit bonds accounting for approximately 32 trillion RMB, presenting potential arbitrage opportunities, particularly in medium-term notes and corporate bonds [1][2] - Historical asset shortages have occurred during periods of loose monetary policy and insufficient real financing demand, with the current environment requiring close attention to policy changes [1][5] - Key investment strategies include focusing on high-quality long-duration products, exploiting regulatory arbitrage opportunities, and increasing allocations to high-grade products for stable returns [1][9] Summary by Sections Current Market Changes - The credit bond market has seen significant changes, with credit spreads remaining low amid an asset shortage and a decrease in default events, limiting trading opportunities based on spread fluctuations [2][11] Major Categories and Characteristics - Credit bonds are categorized into financial and non-financial types, with non-financial bonds primarily comprising short-term financing, medium-term notes, and corporate bonds, which may present arbitrage strategies [3][4] Rating Agency Impact - Rating agencies operate under issuer-paid and investor-paid models, with the latter primarily covering certain bonds in the interbank market. The actual practice still favors rated bonds despite regulatory changes allowing for the cancellation of mandatory ratings [4] Historical Asset Shortages - Four historical phases of asset shortages are identified, characterized by loose monetary policy and insufficient real financing demand, with varying influences from demand and supply factors [5] Feasible Investment Strategies - Current feasible investment strategies include focusing on high-quality long-duration bonds, utilizing arbitrage opportunities between different regulatory systems, and considering undervalued assets during severe asset shortages [7][9] Indicators of Rate Downturn Reversal - Key indicators for potential reversals during rate downturns include changes in fundamentals, stringent financial regulations, and institutional behaviors [8] Credit Spread Volatility - Credit spread volatility is influenced by central bank monetary policy, fundamental changes, and institutional behaviors, with historical events illustrating these impacts [10][12] Future Influencing Factors - Future factors affecting the credit bond market include central bank monetary policy changes, actual or expected fundamental changes, and institutional behaviors such as potential redemption waves [12] Risk Preference Influences - In adverse market conditions, risk preferences for credit bonds are influenced by default events, investor characteristics, liquidity compensation, and leverage operation convenience [13][14] Supply Pressure Impact - Credit bond supply pressure is influenced by corporate financing willingness, cost advantages of financing channels, and regulatory policies, with recent trends indicating a shift towards bond financing due to cost advantages [19][20] Common Investment Strategies - Common investment strategies in the credit bond market include regional and industry rotation, product selection based on market volatility, duration selection based on interest rate trends, and monitoring changes in wealth management product behaviors [21][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the trends of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds diverged. Interest - rate bonds adjusted slightly, while credit bonds showed strong resilience and continued to recover, with ultra - long - term varieties having the highest repair degree [3][10][27]. - The market of Tier 2 capital bonds (Two - tier bonds) weakened, and the repair degree of the ultra - long - term part was weaker than that of other ultra - long - term credit bonds [4][17]. - The start of the ultra - long - term credit bond market was not driven by major non - bank institutions such as funds, wealth management, and insurance, so the sustainability of the market may not be stable. It is recommended that institutions with unstable liability ends avoid chasing the rise of ultra - long - term credit bonds. Instead, it is advisable to focus on short - and medium - term coupon sinking strategies [5][26][27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance of Interest - rate Bonds and Credit Bonds - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, and 5Y treasury bonds increased by 2.8BP, decreased by 0.2BP, increased by 1.5BP, increased by 2.2BP, and increased by 2.7BP respectively. In contrast, the yields of the same - term AAA and AA+ medium - term notes decreased [10][11]. - The yields of AAA/AA+ 10Y medium - term notes decreased by 5.77BP, the yields of AAA/AA+ 10Y urban investment bonds decreased by 5.86BP and 5.85BP respectively, the yield of AAA - 10Y bank secondary capital bonds decreased by 0.17BP, while the yield of 10Y treasury bonds increased by 2.40BP [3][12][13]. 3.2 Curve Shape and Yield Quantile Analysis - The steepness of the 1 - 2 - year and 2 - 3 - year yield curves of all ratings is the highest, and the 3 - 5 - year yield curve of low - grade bonds also has a relatively high steepness [13]. - In terms of the historical quantiles of absolute yields and credit spreads, the 4 - 5Y range still has a certain cost - performance [15]. 3.3 Market Situation of Two - tier Bonds - The market of Two - tier bonds weakened, with adjustments in the 2Y - 5Y range. The repair degree of the ultra - long - term part was weaker than that of other ultra - long - term credit bonds. The yields of 1 - 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year AAA - bank secondary capital bonds changed to varying degrees [4][17]. - The buying interest in the active trading of Two - tier bonds was not weak, but the proportion of transactions below the valuation was not high, and the trading volume with a discount of more than 4BP was small [19][20]. 3.4 Market Situation of Ultra - long - term Credit Bonds - There were not many sell - side transactions of ultra - long - term credit bonds last week, and the discount transaction was not a panic - selling situation. The discount transaction proportion was between 0.00% and 17.50%, and the discount amplitude was mostly within 4BP [21]. - The coupon of ultra - long - term credit bonds has a certain cost - performance, and the proportion of high - activity transactions below the valuation continued to increase, remaining at a high level throughout the week [22]. 3.5 Institutional Behavior Analysis - Last week, public funds, wealth management, and insurance all reduced their net purchases of credit bonds compared with the previous week. Funds were net sellers of 5 - 30 - year credit bonds, with a net selling scale of 10.2 billion yuan [5][26]. - Other asset management products were net buyers of credit bonds, with a net purchase of 239.9 billion yuan, mainly increasing their holdings of 3 - 30 - year varieties, with a net purchase of 75.8 billion yuan [26].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a recovery in the interest rate market, particularly in the underperforming secondary perpetual bonds and credit bonds, with a more pronounced recovery in perpetual bonds. The credit spread for medium to short-term bonds has narrowed significantly, leading to a steeper spread curve [1]. Primary Issuance - Net financing has seen a significant increase, with a total issuance of 4011.9 billion yuan in major credit bond varieties last week (October 13 - October 17, 2025), compared to a net financing of -35.1 billion yuan in the previous week (October 9 - October 11, 2025) [1]. Secondary Trading - Trading activity has increased, with total transactions in major credit bond varieties reaching 9165.71 billion yuan last week, a rise of 6748.54 billion yuan from the previous week. The yields on medium-term notes have generally declined, with specific decreases noted for AAA and AA+ rated notes [2]. Credit Rating Adjustments and Default Tracking - No credit rating adjustments were made by domestic rating agencies last week. However, one new default bond was reported, issued by Sunshine City Group Co., Ltd. [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - This section is not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Q4 credit spreads may continue to fluctuate and adjust, with greater potential pressure on the long - end [7]. - It is recommended to control duration for credit bonds, and short - end sinking and carry strategies are preferable [7]. - For financial bonds, pay attention to participation opportunities in new - bond price discovery, and the trading difficulty of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds is increasing [7]. - For general credit bonds, use short - duration as a shield and coupon as a spear to find structural opportunities [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Q3 Review: Supply Weak, Credit Follow - up Adjustment, Short - end Superior 3.1.1 Primary Market - In 2025Q3, the issuance and net supply of traditional credit bonds decreased slightly. The issuance and net financing of industrial bonds decreased, while those of urban investment bonds increased. The issuance and net financing of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds decreased significantly, and the net financing of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds turned negative [15][20]. 3.1.2 Secondary Market - In Q3, credit bonds followed the adjustment of interest - rate bonds but did not over - adjust. The short - end performed better than the long - end. Yields generally increased, credit spreads at the 1 - year term narrowed, and those at the medium - and long - terms generally widened. Short - end rating spreads mostly widened, and medium - and long - end spreads narrowed. Term spreads generally widened, and the holding - period yield of the 1 - year term remained positive [25][28][36]. 3.2 How to Evaluate the Spread Pricing of Various Products after the New VAT Regulations? 3.2.1 Impact of ChinaBond Valuation on Spread Calculation - Since August 8, 2025, the restoration of VAT on the interest income of government bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds has different impacts on different institutions. The impact order is financial institutions' self - operation > public funds > other asset management products > qualified overseas investors [43]. - The compilation arrangement of ChinaBond bond valuation and yield curve during the transition period may affect the calculation results of credit spreads and term spreads [47]. 3.2.2 Credit Spreads - When new government - development bonds are issued, the credit spread center of general credit bonds may shift downward systematically, and the situation of financial bonds may be more complex. To eliminate the impact of VAT, adjustments can be made through the new - old bond spread of financial bonds [51][54]. 3.2.3 Term Spreads - When new financial bonds are issued, the term spread center of the corresponding new - issue term may increase in the short term and remain at a high level. To eliminate the impact of VAT, adjustments can be made through the new - old bond spread of financial bonds [57]. 3.3 Perspective of Institutional Behavior: Pay Attention to the Impact of Chip Switching on the Credit Bond Market 3.3.1 Public Funds - Due to the comparison of various asset classes and the new public fund fee regulations, the liability side of off - exchange bond funds faces significant challenges. The stock growth rate and proportion of bond - type funds have declined since July 2025, and funds may flow to bond ETFs, wealth management products, and special - account entrusted products. The demand structure of credit bonds may be reshaped [69][72]. 3.3.2 Wealth Management Products - Near the end - of - year regulatory deadline for net - value smoothing rectification, wealth management products face greater valuation fluctuations and may be more cautious in bond - allocation behavior. Although their liquidity management ability has been enhanced, the real liquidity of credit bond ETFs may not meet their needs. In the short term, the expansion of wealth management scale faces pressure, but in the long term, the new public fund fee regulations may be beneficial to the expansion of wealth management scale [5]. 3.3.3 Changes in Credit Bond Allocation Behavior of Various Institutions - Recently, the chip - switching feature of credit bonds is obvious. The buying power of public funds has weakened, while wealth management products have become a stabilizer for credit bonds. Insurance has stronger demand support, and rural commercial banks prefer general credit bonds. Long - term credit may face re - pricing [5]. 3.4 Q4 Outlook: Pressure Remains, Short - end as Shield and Coupon as Spear - Credit spreads may continue to fluctuate and adjust in Q4, with greater potential pressure on the long - end. It is recommended to control duration, and short - end sinking and carry strategies are preferable. For financial bonds, pay attention to new - bond price discovery opportunities, and be cautious about Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. For general credit bonds, look for structural opportunities in the primary market, urban investment bonds, high - grade private and perpetual bonds, and based on credit bond ETFs [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, most bond varieties saw corrections, with long - end interest - rate bonds and long - end Tier 2 and perpetual bonds (referred to as "Er Yong" bonds) leading the decline, which are the heavy - position bonds preferred by funds. The "killing of funds' heavy - position bonds" in this round has a more significant curve steepening compared to the adjustment in Q4 2022 [1][5]. - Although commodity demand has weakened, inflation expectations remain strong. If PPI is transmitted to core CPI, the year - on - year core CPI in March next year may reach 1.6%, and real interest rates may decline [1][20]. - In the fourth - quarter bond market, from the EVA comparison perspective, 30Y treasury bonds have a high comparison advantage over mortgage loans, while 10Y treasury bonds are relatively neutral. Despite weak fundamentals, the necessity of interest - rate cuts may not be high from the perspective of real interest rates. Currently, the IRS - implied interest - rate cut expectation is low. Insurance bond - allocation growth may be weaker than before, and banks may redeem funds in advance, which is unfavorable to the bond - market supply - demand structure. The impact of the new round of tariff turmoil on the bond market is smaller than that in April [1][23][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 9 - Month Institutional Behavior Pattern: Killing Funds' Heavy - Position Bonds - **Bond Market Correction in September**: Interest - rate bonds' long - end correction was greater than the short - end, with the curve steepening and long - end spreads widening, while the 5Y - 3Y spread narrowed. The long - end of "Er Yong" bonds led the decline, and the credit spreads of 5 - 7Y varieties widened rapidly [5]. - **Funds' Bond Preferences**: Since 2024, funds have preferred to net - buy 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds, 20 - 30Y treasury bonds, 1 - 5Y medium - term notes, and 7 - 10Y "Er Yong" bonds, except for short - term financing bonds [8]. - **Comparison with Q4 2022**: Both rounds showed the characteristic of "Er Yong" bonds leading the decline, but in this round, the short - end decline was small, and the curve steepening was more significant [9]. - **Funds' Trading Behavior**: In September, funds mainly sold "Er Yong" bonds, 10Y old policy - bank bonds, and old ultra - long treasury bonds. They had a net - selling of 16 billion yuan of cash bonds in total, with 101.5 billion yuan of other bonds (including "Er Yong" bonds) mainly sold in the 7 - 10Y and over 30Y maturities, and 55.2 billion yuan of old 20 - 30Y treasury bonds sold. At the same time, they also bought new treasury bonds of the same maturities [13]. - **Funds' Selling Progress**: Fund selling has accelerated, but there is still a large clearing space, and funds can still be seen in ultra - long active bonds [16]. 3.2 Commodity Demand Weakens, but Inflation Expectations Remain Strong - **Commodity Market Situation**: The "Golden September and Silver October" in the commodity market was not as expected. After the pre - holiday inventory - replenishment narrative ended, commodities reached the lowest point after the Politburo meeting. There was a differentiation between upstream and downstream, with the downstream dominated by the "supply - demand logic" and the upstream by the "anti - involution" logic [18]. - **Inflation Expectations**: According to the monthly spread of coking coal, the year - on - year PPI in 2026 was priced at 1.2% on September 30th, and it may exceed 2% in April. If PPI is transmitted to core CPI, the year - on - year core CPI in March next year may be 1.6%, and real interest rates may decline, with the effect of re - inflation similar to the interest - rate cut in 2024 [18][20]. - **Travel and Consumption Improvement**: During the 8 - day National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday this year, the number of tourist trips increased by 16.1% year - on - year, and domestic tourism spending increased by 13.5%. The daily average number of tourist trips increased by 1.6%, and consumption increased by 1%. Since 2022, the economic cycle has been in the recovery stage, and by October 2025, the number of tourist trips (+10.4%) and tourism revenue (+3.1%) have exceeded the 2019 levels [21]. 3.3 Fourth - Quarter Bond - Market Highlights: Comparison, Institutional Behavior, and Tariff Re - trading - **EVA Comparison Perspective**: As of the end of September, the after - tax EVA level of 30Y treasury bonds was 2.15%. Even considering the restoration of value - added tax on interest income, it had a high comparison advantage over the existing mortgage loan rate of 1.71%, with the spread reaching the 79% historical quantile since 2015. However, the EVA spread of 10Y treasury bonds compared to general loans only recovered to the 24% historical quantile, with a relatively neutral comparison advantage [23]. - **Fundamental Perspective**: Economic data from July to August was weak. Investment - end sub - items declined significantly, and the previously strong social retail sales also declined. Manufacturing growth turned negative, infrastructure investment declined, and real - estate investment continued to decline. Although this may lead to expectations of interest - rate cuts, from the perspective of real interest rates, the necessity of interest - rate cuts may not be high, and currently, the IRS - implied interest - rate cut expectation is low [26][30][32]. - **Institutional Behavior**: Currently, the market risk preference is high. Insurance bond - allocation growth may be weaker than before, and banks may redeem funds in advance, which is unfavorable to the bond - market supply - demand structure [34]. - **Tariff Turmoil**: The impact of the new round of tariff turmoil on the bond market was smaller than that in April. The decline in the A - share adjustment space on Monday may not be large. Compared with April, the increments in the A - share market include a strong AI industry trend, more familiarity with the "TACO" investment model, but also the risk of high valuations [36][37][38].