扇出封装
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势银观察 | 高阶Fan-out重构晶圆订单有限,如何开拓扇出封装应用成为市场成长的核心瓶颈
势银芯链· 2025-12-15 03:42
Core Viewpoint - The advanced packaging industry is experiencing high expectations for the future development potential of Fan-out wafer-level packaging (FOWLP) and Fan-out panel-level packaging (FOPLP) technologies, driven by large-scale orders from TSMC's InFO series and CoWoS-R products [2] Group 1: Market Trends and Projections - The global demand for high-end Fan-out (FO) products is limited, with high-value orders primarily secured by leading international companies [2] - By 2025, the domestic Fan-out packaging market in China is projected to exceed $100 million, with a year-on-year growth of 29%, and FOWLP expected to account for 73% of this market [4] - The demand for wafer-level Fan-out packaging is currently less than 10,000 pieces per month (equivalent to 300mm), which is a strategic focus for most packaging manufacturers [4] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Domestic advanced packaging companies in China possess strong technical competitiveness, but the demand for high-value FO orders remains limited, leading to a rapid increase in the number of players in the market [2] - Longji Technology is expected to hold a dominant market share in the FOWLP sector in mainland China, ranking fourth globally [4] Group 3: Future Development and Strategies - The industry needs to explore larger-scale and broader application areas for FO wafer products, such as discrete devices, power chips/modules, and audio/RF/radar modules, which have lower requirements for wafer reconstruction packaging [2] - The FOPLP technology is anticipated to become the preferred solution in low-value application scenarios as its maturity and production line utilization improve [4] - The FOWLP technology is expected to maintain a high growth rate of over 30% penetration in the next five years, as domestic manufacturers expand their product applications and accumulate process cases [4]
红宝书20250717
2025-07-19 14:02
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Semiconductor Packaging Industry**: Focus on TSMC's CoWoS technology and related companies - **RISC-V Architecture**: Development and adoption in high-performance computing - **Micro-Short Drama Industry**: Growth and government support in Shenzhen - **Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) Technology**: Medical applications and market potential - **AI in Healthcare**: Investment trends and technological advancements - **Tourism and Cruise Industry**: Summer tourism trends and company initiatives - **Robotics and AI**: Development in military and healthcare applications Core Insights and Arguments Semiconductor Packaging - TSMC is advancing its CoWoS technology, with expected Q3 sales between $31.8 billion and $33.1 billion, exceeding market estimates [2][3] - The global market for CoWoS technology is projected to exceed $10 billion by 2026, with China leading growth at 71% [2] RISC-V Architecture - The fifth RISC-V China Summit highlighted the acceleration of high-performance computing products [4] - Companies like Aojie Technology and Allwinner Technology are leading in RISC-V CPU subsystem development [5] Micro-Short Drama - Shenzhen's government has introduced measures to support the micro-short drama industry, with a market size expected to reach 68.6 billion yuan in 2025, growing at 36% [6][7] Brain-Computer Interface - The global BCI medical application market is projected to reach $40 billion by 2030, with significant growth in central nervous system disease treatments [8] - Companies like Yanshan Technology and Sanbo Brain Science are pioneering BCI applications [9] AI in Healthcare - The global AI healthcare investment landscape is heating up, with significant advancements in molecular modeling technology [11] - The company is collaborating with Tencent AI Lab to enhance drug discovery processes [11] Tourism and Cruise - The domestic summer tourism consumption is expected to reach 1.8 trillion yuan, with the company launching themed cruise lines [13] Robotics and AI - The military robotics sector is accelerating, with new developments in multifunctional robots for reconnaissance and inspection [16] - Companies are also focusing on healthcare robotics, with applications in rehabilitation and elderly care [15] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The CoWoS technology's capacity is directly linked to HBM production, indicating a critical supply chain relationship [2] - The RISC-V architecture's integration into data centers could disrupt traditional CPU markets [4] - The micro-short drama market's growth is driven by free content, highlighting a shift in consumer preferences [6] - The BCI technology's commercialization is supported by new pricing regulations in Hubei province [8] - The AI healthcare sector is seeing a convergence of technology and traditional pharmaceutical practices, enhancing drug development efficiency [11] - The cruise tourism initiative is part of a broader strategy to diversify offerings in response to changing consumer demands [13] - The military robotics market is expected to see increased government investment and interest, particularly in AI applications [16]