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人工智能行业专题:2025Q1海外大厂CapEx和ROIC总结梳理
Guoxin Securities· 2025-05-06 04:35
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [1] Core Insights - A review of the capital expenditures and performance of major cloud vendors in Q1 2025 shows that Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon experienced a slowdown in year-over-year capital expenditure growth, while Microsoft saw stable revenue and profit growth driven by AI [2] - Overall cloud revenue growth is slowing, but all vendors continue to see increases in cloud revenue. The return on invested capital (ROIC) for Meta and Amazon has decreased quarter-over-quarter due to the impact of overall revenue and profit trends [2] Summary by Sections 1. Capital Expenditures and Performance Review of Cloud Vendors - In Q1 2025, Microsoft's capital expenditure decreased by 5.3% quarter-over-quarter to $21.4 billion, primarily due to normal fluctuations related to data center leasing delivery times. Future capital expenditures are expected to increase [8][14] - Meta's capital expenditure in Q1 2025 was $13.7 billion, a year-over-year increase of 104%, but slightly below expectations. The company raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance to between $64 billion and $72 billion, reflecting additional investments in data centers to support AI initiatives [20][27] - Google's capital expenditure in Q1 2025 was $17.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 43.2% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 20.5%, slightly exceeding market expectations [35][41] - Amazon's capital expenditure in Q1 2025 was $24.3 billion, a year-over-year increase of 63.09%, but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 7.6%, primarily directed towards AWS to meet AI service demands [48][55] 2. Cloud Revenue and ROIC Situation - Microsoft reported Q1 2025 cloud revenue of $26.7 billion, with Azure and other cloud services growing by 33%, contributing 16% to Azure's revenue growth from AI [70] - Amazon's AWS revenue in Q1 2025 was $29.3 billion, a year-over-year increase of 16.9%, with AI business achieving annualized revenue in the billions and continuing to grow at triple-digit percentages [55][70] - Google's cloud revenue in Q1 2025 was $12.26 billion, a year-over-year increase of 28.06%, driven by GCP growth, including AI infrastructure and generative AI solutions [70] - The ROIC for Microsoft and Google increased quarter-over-quarter, while Meta and Amazon saw declines, reflecting the impact of AI demand on capital expenditures and overall performance [71]