Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10] Core View - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but Fed Chair Powell's speech showed some hawkish signals. Although the short-term may suppress gold prices, the logic of the easing cycle remains unchanged, and the financial attributes of precious metals are expected to continue to expand [1][8]. - Silver currently shares the same macro - easing logic as gold, and its price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut this year and the first in 9 months. After the FOMC statement, the probability of a Fed rate cut in October is over 90%. Powell said employment growth has slowed, inflation has risen slightly, and there are still inflation risks [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 17, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 841.16 yuan/gram and closed at 835.08 yuan/gram, down 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 835.66 yuan/gram, down 0.24% from the afternoon close [2]. - On September 17, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 10,128 yuan/kg and closed at 9,906 yuan/kg, down 2.00% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 457,876 lots, and the open interest was 171,891 lots. The night - session closed at 9,924 yuan/kg, down 0.09% from the afternoon close [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 17, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.091%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.536%, down 0.85 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On September 17, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long position changed by 136 lots and the short position changed by 171 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 366,327 lots, a change of 16.67% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long position changed by 2 lots and the short position changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,303,544 lots, a change of 33.27% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 975.66 tons, down 4.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,189.61 tons, down 28.23 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 17, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 10.30 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 860.41 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 84.30, a change of 1.19% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 86.56, a change of 0.41% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On September 17, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 57,144 kg, a change of 30.88% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 748,504 kg, a change of 47.11% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 10,740 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 62,070 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: Buy on dips in the range of 815 - 820 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: Buy on dips in the range of 9,750 - 9,800 yuan/kg [10]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [10]. - Options: On hold [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - Since May, the gold price has been in a volatile pattern, influenced by Trump's changing attitude towards tariff policies and Fed Chairman Powell's cautious stance on interest rate cuts. Now, Trump's mention of replacing the Fed Chairman and urging rate cuts increases market uncertainty. For gold, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with an operating range of 760 yuan/gram - 765 yuan/gram. Silver prices are strong, hitting a record high, but due to its high volatility, it's advisable to buy on dips for hedging without aggressive chasing, and pay more attention to position control and strict stop-loss execution. For arbitrage, short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - India and the US are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement by the end of the month, and the US and Mexico are close to reaching an agreement on steel import tariffs. Trump called the Los Angeles riots a "foreign invasion," and a US judge rejected California's request to immediately stop Trump from sending troops to the state. Russia and the US will hold a new round of talks in Moscow soon [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On June 10, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 774.00 yuan/gram and closed at 775.06 yuan/gram, up 0.04% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 179,960 lots, and the open interest was 170,163 lots. The night session opened at 777.70 yuan/gram and closed at 774.96 yuan/gram, up 0.23% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 8,900 yuan/kg and closed at 8,887 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 969,816 lots, and the open interest was 465,984 lots. The night session opened at 8,910 yuan/kg and closed at 8,889 yuan/kg, down 0.43% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 10, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.49%, up 0.11% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.46%, down 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Long and Short Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On June 10, 2025, on the Au2502 contract, the long positions changed by 38 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 44 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 326,479 lots, down 28.17% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 4,031 lots, and the short positions decreased by 227 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 1,458,778 lots, down 21.36% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Holdings Tracking - On the previous day, the gold ETF holdings were 935.91 tons, down 0.31 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 14,689.50 tons, up 32.52 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On June 10, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 1.25 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -645.16 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main gold and silver futures contract prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 87.21, up 0.29% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 90.68, down 1.64% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On June 10, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 50,072 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 617,842 kg, up 5.80% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 21,766 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 57,180 kg [7].