Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - The resilience of US employment and inflation has cooled the prospects of interest rate cuts, and precious metal prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to the US retail sales month-on-month rate data for July [1]. - The trading logic of silver prices is still in sync with that of gold, mainly driven by future easing expectations on the macro level, and is expected to remain volatile in the short term under the cooling of interest rate cut expectations [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On August 14, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 778.12 yuan/gram and closed at 778.70 yuan/gram, a change of 0.13% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. During the night session, it opened at 776.9 yuan/gram and closed at 774.54 yuan/gram, up 0.53% from the afternoon close [2]. - On August 14, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9,332.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,286.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -0.15% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 350,484 lots, and the open interest was 366,680 lots. During the night session, it opened at 9,242 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,197 yuan/kilogram, down 0.96% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 14, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.29%, a change of +5 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.56%, down 1 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On August 14, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by -90 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 0 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 188,176 lots, a change of -30.00% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by -328 lots, and the short positions changed by -408 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 532,407 lots, a change of -16.86% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 961.35 tons, a decrease of 2.87 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,071.31 tons, a decrease of 28.25 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 14, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -8.95 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -671.04 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was approximately 83.86, a change of 0.28% from the previous trading day. The ratio of gold and silver prices in the overseas market was 87.08, a change of -1.96% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On August 14, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 22,284 kilograms, a change of -31.65% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 465,346 kilograms, a change of 23.50% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,664 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 47,970 kilograms [7]. Strategy - Gold: The short-term price of gold is expected to remain volatile, with the Au2510 contract's oscillation range possibly between 765 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The short-term price of silver is expected to remain volatile, with the Ag2510 contract's oscillation range possibly between 9,015 yuan/kilogram and 9,350 yuan/kilogram [9]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9]. - Options: Hold off [9].

贵金属日报 | 2025-07-31 美联储维持利率水平不变 贵金属仍陷震荡格局 策略摘要 今日凌晨，美联储议息会议上宣布维持利率在4.25%-4.50%不变，但理事沃勒、鲍曼投下反对票并主张降息。可见 美联储内部对于未来利率路径走向仍有分歧。此外，主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上避免了就9月降息给出指引，称当 前货币政策立场处于有利位置，强调依赖数据、通胀的目标比就业遥远，合理推测是关税对通胀的影响是短暂的。 而倘若降息与通胀走高在短时内均无法实现，则黄金的震荡格局或将延续。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-07-30，沪金主力合约开于772.70元/克，收于773.78元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动0.30%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于771.30元/克，收于770.68元/克，较昨日午后收盘下降0.32%。 2025-07-30，沪银主力合约开于9193.00元/千克，收于9192.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.03%。当日成交量 为689866手，持仓量为392370手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于9,145元/千克，收于9,090元/千克，较昨日午后收盘 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold price remains in a sideways pattern, and the gold-silver ratio has normalized due to the increase in market risk sentiment. The upcoming Fed interest rate meeting may have a significant impact on the market if the Fed unexpectedly cuts rates. The potential removal of Fed Chairman Powell could increase safe-haven demand and benefit the gold price. It is recommended to buy gold on dips for hedging [8]. - The silver price has reached a new high, and there is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio. However, due to its high volatility, attention should be paid to position control and strict stop-loss. The weakening photovoltaic sector may also suppress the silver price in the future. It is recommended to buy silver on dips for hedging [9]. - It is recommended to short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9]. - It is advisable to put options on hold [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News - The Washington Federal Court rejected the request of an investment firm led by Trump's ally to make the FOMC meeting public. The US Treasury significantly raised its borrowing estimate for the third quarter to $1.007 trillion. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, slightly alleviating market concerns about future uncertainties and causing precious metals to weaken slightly. The US and the EU are still discussing tariff exemptions for wine and spirits. The Fed interest rate meeting is approaching, and Trump has called for a rate cut this week [1] 3.2 Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On July 28, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 772.82 yuan/gram and closed at 774.78 yuan/gram, down 0.33% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 770.84 yuan/gram, down 0.31% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,350 yuan/kg and closed at 9,212 yuan/kg, down 1.92% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,203,307 lots, and the open interest was 398,421 lots. The night session closed at 9,200 yuan/kg, down 0.27% from the afternoon session [2] 3.3 US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 28, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.40%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 51%, up 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3] 3.4 SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Trading Volume Changes - On July 28, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 939 lots, and the short positions decreased by 41 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 330,092 lots, down 45.61% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 4,184 lots, and the short positions decreased by 4,086 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai silver contract was 1,564,987 lots, down 39.34% from the previous trading day [4] 3.5 Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 956.23 tons, down 0.86 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,159.79 tons, down 70.64 tons from the previous trading day [5] 3.6 Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On July 28, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -4.52 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -513.64 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 84.11, down 0.25% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 86.39, up 0.30% from the previous trading day [6] 3.7 Fundamental Data - On July 28, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + D market was 34,706 kg, down 36.38% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 637,268 kg, down 44.82% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 13,848 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 28,080 kg [7]

FICC日报 | 2025-06-24 欧元区经济数据疲软，关注中东局势后续进展 市场分析 国内5月经济仍待夯实。5月国内数据好坏参半，5月投资数据整体走弱，尤其是地产边际压力再增，后续或将拖累 财政收入，及整个地产链条；同时出口也略有承压，5月"抢出口"成色一般，叠加美国5月零售销售走弱，前期需 求透支下，后续外需预计将承压；5月仅有消费表现韧性，6月20日新华社发布后续以旧换新国补将继续下达。面 对关税下的外需压力和内部的稳增长诉求，关注财政进一步加码的可能。6月9-10日，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议 在英国伦敦举行，落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解 决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。关于7月9日到期的关税延后政策，6月12日特朗普政府首次公开承认其关税时间 表存在灵活性。欧盟也表示预计延期谈判。在美国轰炸伊朗核设施后，韩国总统李在明和日本首相石破茂将不会 参加于24日至25日在荷兰海牙举行的北约峰会。 美联储按兵不动，维持联邦基金利率目标区间4.25%-4.50%不变，符合市场预期。决议声明略掉关于失业率和通胀 风险更高的措辞，今年利率预测中位值不变、仍预计 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-06-11 重要经济数据及事件相对稀疏 贵金属暂陷震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 在关税事宜方面，据外媒称，印度和美国有望在月底前达成一项临时贸易协议、美墨接近就钢铁进口关税达成协 议。此外，特朗普称，洛杉矶骚乱事件是"外国入侵"。美法官驳回加州有关立即阻止特朗普政府向该州派兵的 请求。地缘方面，俄驻美大使表示，俄美新一轮会谈将于近期在莫斯科举行。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-06-10，沪金主力合约开于 774.00元/克，收于 775.06元/克，较前一交易日收盘 0.04%。当日成交量为 179960手，持仓量为 170163手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 777.70 元/克，收于 774.96 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.23%。 2025-06-10，沪银主力合约开于 8900元/千克，收于 8887元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 969816手，持仓量 465984手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,910 元/千克，收于 8,889 元/千克，较昨日午后收盘 下降0.43%。 美债收益率与利差监控： 2025-06-10，美国 10 年期国债利率收于 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-23 特朗普税改法通过 金价高位震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 近日，特朗普税改法案在众议院以微弱优势通过，交由参议院审议。另外，美国参议院投票通过终止加州禁售燃 油车的法案，并将该法案送交特朗普签署。美联储方面，理事沃勒表示，如果关税下降，预计美联储将在2025年 下半年降息。地缘方面，伊朗方面表示，伊朗誓言对以色列的任何愚蠢行为作出"毁灭性回应"。任何以色列对 伊核设施的攻击都将被视为美国的介入，有能力但无意制造核武。黄金价格近期冲高后回落，目前维持高位震荡 格局。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-05-22，沪金主力合约开于 775.16元/克，收于 780.10元/克，较前一交易日收盘 0.17%。当日成交量为 307544手，持仓量为 224053手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 775.22 元/克，收于 773.76 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 下降0.71%。 2025-05-22，沪银主力合约开于 8265元/千克，收于 8301元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 763517手，持仓量 383991手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,236 元/千 ...