霍尔木兹海峡局势趋紧，关注美国2月非农数据 市场分析 伊朗局势再度升级。2月28日美国以色列对伊朗进行了空袭，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊可能遇袭身亡，伊朗政府宣布 为期40天的全国哀悼。随后伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队展开大规模反击。截至目前，中东及周边地区多处能源与生产设 施遭打击损毁，地区生产与供应链受到显著冲击，冲突范围持续扩大。伊朗局势主要影响的品种集中在原油、甲 醇、LPG、贵金属和航运板块。冲突是否会转入地面战争以及霍尔木兹海峡是关键。美国总统特朗普当地时间2日 表示，不达目标不停战，不排除"必要时"对伊朗派遣美军地面部队，但他认为对伊朗的军事行动进展远超原计划， 没有必要对伊朗采取地面军事行动。霍尔木兹海峡的封锁概率较低，历史上从未被完全封锁。伊朗政权更迭后的 政治方向不明朗，可能影响原油出口和核武谈判。原油和黄金短期可能走高，但参考历史事件，市场可能呈现"卖 事实"的表现。而一旦事件升级，将进一步抬升全球通胀风险。当地时间5日上午，伊朗哈塔姆·安比亚中央司令部 副司令阿米尔·海达里在接受采访时表示，伊朗方面并未封锁霍尔木兹海峡。在战争时期，霍尔木兹海峡的通行规 则将由伊朗方面掌控。美国、以色列以及欧洲国家及其 ...

FICC日报 | 2026-02-27 人民币升破6.83关口，关注美国1月PPI数据 市场分析 国内春节假期期间，海外地缘风险不断。首先是伊朗紧张，伊朗与美国第三轮间接谈判于26日在日内瓦举行。美 国特使透露，特朗普政府要求未来任何伊核协议必须"无限期有效"，绝不接受设定到期（日落）条款。当前谈判 重点为伊朗本土铀浓缩及库存处理。美方强调不允许伊朗拥核，倾向外交解决；伊朗则表示愿签新协议确保核计 划和平性质，以避免战争。此前，特朗普曾公开表示考虑对伊朗进行"初步的有限军事打击"，并给出约10-15天的"最 后期限"，否则将面临严重后果。其次是美国"对等关税"被宣布违法，2月20日，美国最高法院以6票对3票的投票结 果裁定，1977年出台的《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）并未赋予总统在未经国会批准时征收关税的权力。同日， 特朗普宣布将依据《1974年贸易法》第122条，征收"全球进口关税"，税率10%，为期150天，以取代被最高法院认 定违法的关税，该关税2月24日已经正式生效。当地时间2月21日，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发 文称，将把对全球商品加征10%的进口关税的税率水平提高至15%， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - The market is waiting for the US non-farm payrolls data. The US employment growth data is expected to slow down, reflecting structural changes in the labor market. The market expects about 70,000 new jobs in the January non-farm payrolls report [1]. - Due to the emergence of market risk sentiment, the demand for gold investment may increase slightly. It is expected that the gold price will mainly be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the Au2604 contract may fluctuate between 1100 yuan/gram and 1200 yuan/gram. Silver also shows a price recovery, and is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with the Ag2604 contract fluctuating between 20,000 yuan/kg and 21,000 yuan/kg [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The US employment growth data is expected to slow down, but this does not mean a weakening of economic growth momentum, but rather reflects structural changes in the labor market. The January non-farm payrolls report will be released on Wednesday, and the market expects about 70,000 new jobs. In addition, there was a "black swan" event in British politics, with several officials resigning and calls for the prime minister to step down [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On February 9, 2026, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 1104.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1125.94 yuan/gram, a change of 3.29% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 1122.92 yuan/gram and closed at 1127.00 yuan/gram, a 0.09% increase from the afternoon closing price [2]. - On February 9, 2026, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 19,500.00 yuan/kg and closed at 20,873.00 yuan/kg, a change of 11.03% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 1,015,255 lots, and the open interest was 222,366 lots. In the night session, it opened at 20,500 yuan/kg and closed at 20,934 yuan/kg, a 0.29% increase from the afternoon closing price [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 9, 2026, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.202%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.723%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, the long positions changed by 2507 lots compared with the previous day, while the short positions changed by -3023 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 447,637 lots, a change of -23.27% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by -2303 lots and the short positions changed by -3455 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,971,263 lots, a change of -20.79% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The holdings of gold ETFs remained unchanged at 1,076.23 tons compared with the previous trading day. The holdings of silver ETFs decreased by 56 tons to 16,191 tons compared with the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On February 9, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was -22.59 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -655.69 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 53.94, a change of 6.22% from the previous trading day. The foreign market gold-silver ratio was 64.99, a change of 5.27% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On the previous trading day (February 9, 2026), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 47,556 kg, a change of -2.42% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 327,768 kg, a change of -0.53% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kg [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall inflation narrative remains unchanged, and domestic policies are clearly driving up inflation. The overseas situation is mainly influenced by Trump's policies. The sharp decline in precious metals does not change the long - term trend, but short - term volatility risks need to be watched out for [1]. - In the short term, be vigilant about market fluctuations. The long - term supply constraints in the non - ferrous sector have not been alleviated, and precious metals have allocation value again after the adjustment. The energy sector has short - term geopolitical support for oil prices, but there are still threats from Venezuela's long - term production increase expectations [2]. - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to buy precious metals on dips [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 30, Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. After the news, silver fell more than 30% and gold fell 11%, the largest single - day decline since March 1980. The core of Trump's nomination is to cut interest rates and boost the real estate market, and Warsh's "balance - sheet reduction" needs more aggressive "interest - rate cuts" [1]. - On February 5, Bitcoin fell below $70,000, hitting a 15 - month low [1]. - The central economic work conference emphasized consumption promotion and anti - "involution" competition. The central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points on January 15. The Ministry of Finance issued five important policy documents on January 20 to boost inflation [1]. - The US manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in January, and the US ADP employment in January increased by 22,000, lower than the expected 45,000. The US and India reached a trade agreement, with the US "reciprocal tariff" on India dropping from 25% to 18% [1]. - The European Central Bank kept the deposit rate at 2% on Thursday, the fifth consecutive pause since last June. The Bank of England kept the interest rate at 3.75%, with an internal 5:4 vote close to a rate cut, sending a strong dovish signal [1] Commodity Analysis - Non - ferrous metals: Long - term supply constraints remain unrelieved, with high certainty [2]. - Precious metals: Have allocation value again after the adjustment [2]. - Energy: OPEC + plans to keep crude oil production stable in March. The US will "sell on commission" Venezuelan oil, and Trump hopes to lower the oil price to $50 per barrel. There are short - term geopolitical supports for oil prices, but long - term production increase expectations from Venezuela pose threats [2]. - Chemicals: Methanol, PTA and other varieties are relatively resistant to decline under the "anti - involution" and stock - commodity linkage [2]. - Agricultural products: Need to pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig epidemic situations [2]. - Black commodities: Focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [2] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, buy precious metals on dips [3] Important News - Trump said that his nominee for Fed Chair would not be appointed if they expressed the intention to raise interest rates [1][4]. - The UK central bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%, in line with market expectations [4]. - The US - Iran nuclear negotiation plan was restored, and the negotiation will be held in Oman [4]. - The second round of Russia - US - Ukraine tripartite talks ended, and the US and Russia agreed to resume high - level military dialogue [1][4]. - The European Central Bank aims to keep inflation stable at 2% in the medium term and will decide the monetary policy stance based on data and meeting by meeting [4]. - The Bank of England had a 5:4 vote to keep the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%. Interest rates "are likely to be cut further", and inflation persistence risks are currently "less obvious" [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's risk sentiment has increased, and the demand for gold investment may slightly recover. The gold price is expected to be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern in the near term. The Au2604 contract may oscillate between 1,080 yuan/gram and 1,180 yuan/gram. Silver prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern as well, with the Ag2604 contract oscillating between 21,000 yuan/kilogram and 24,000 yuan/kilogram [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical concerns persist as the US-Iran negotiation location change led to a deadlock, causing concerns in the Middle East that Trump may resort to military action. The US ADP employment data in January was far below expectations, with only 22,000 new jobs added, compared to the expected 48,000. The previous value was revised down from 41,000 to 37,000. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the release schedules for January's non-farm payroll report, job vacancy data, and CPI [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On February 4, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,100.02 yuan/gram and closed at 1,141.70 yuan/gram, a 4.38% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1,113.78 yuan/gram, a 2.45% drop from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 22,000.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 23,511.00 yuan/kilogram, a 9.63% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 943,213 lots, and the open interest was 237,208 lots. The night session closed at 22,955 yuan/kilogram, a 2.36% drop from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 4, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.274%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.727%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On February 4, 2026, in the Au2604 contract, the long positions changed by 1,858 lots, and the short positions changed by 704 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract was 607,573 lots, a -39.41% change from the previous trading day. In the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by 6,992 lots, and the short positions changed by 6,131 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 1,904,707 lots, a 17.58% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,083.38 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,438 tons, a decrease of 109 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On February 4, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -14.35 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was 47.66 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was approximately 48.56, a -4.79% change from the previous trading day. The foreign market gold-silver ratio was 56.28, a -1.53% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On February 4, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 69,688 kilograms, a 29.30% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 523,996 kilograms, a -23.65% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]

Group 1: Commodity Price Index - The China Commodity Price Index reached a three-and-a-half-year high in January 2026, standing at 125.3 points, with a month-on-month increase of 6.3% [1] - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 33 saw price increases in January, with lithium carbonate, refined tin, and refined nickel leading the gains at 48.4%, 20.2%, and 19.5% respectively [1] Group 2: Gold and Silver Prices - Gold and silver prices experienced a rebound, with London gold spot prices surpassing $5000 per ounce and silver prices breaking the $91 per ounce mark [2] - However, by the end of trading, the gains in gold and silver prices narrowed, with the Shanghai gold futures main contract turning from gains to losses [3] Group 3: Analyst Predictions for Gold Prices - A Reuters survey indicated that analysts have significantly raised their gold price forecasts for 2026, with a median expected average price of $4746.50 per ounce, marking the highest annual prediction since the survey began in 2012 [4] - This forecast represents a substantial increase from $4275 per ounce in October 2025 and a dramatic rise from $2700 per ounce in a similar survey a year prior [4] Group 4: Market Insights and Future Expectations - Analysts suggest that gold prices could reach $6000 per ounce by the end of the year, driven by factors such as previous price declines, easing overseas liquidity risks, and ongoing strong fundamentals [5] - The market is currently experiencing cautious sentiment due to a temporary U.S. government shutdown affecting economic data releases, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are increasing demand for safe-haven assets [5] - Silver prices may face volatility, with potential supply and inventory tightness, but new demand from sectors like AI could provide support [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [7] - Silver: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] Core Viewpoints - The US government shutdown crisis has been resolved, and the market is waiting for the US-Iran talks to take place. The gold price has stabilized and rebounded, and the upward logic of the overall price center remains smooth. The silver price has also stabilized and rebounded, and the rebound is slightly stronger than that of gold. The gold-silver ratio has changed significantly, and it is recommended to short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [1][7][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical situation: The US-Iran talks are still scheduled to be held later this week. Iran hopes to move the talks from Istanbul to Oman and hold them bilaterally, but there has been no response from Iran yet [1] - US government: President Trump signed a government funding bill to end the partial government shutdown [1] - Federal Reserve: Fed Governor Milan said that the Fed needs to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year. Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized that monetary policy needs to remain cautious until inflation fully returns to the target [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On February 3, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1068.46 yuan/gram and closed at 1093.78 yuan/gram, a change of 8.45% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session opened at 1100.02 yuan/gram and closed at 1108.80 yuan/gram, a 1.37% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On February 3, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 22,000.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 21,446.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -13.64% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 931,055 lots, and the open interest was 226,336 lots. The night session opened at 22,000 yuan/kilogram and closed at 22,393 yuan/kilogram, a 4.42% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 3, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.266%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.797, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume Changes - On the Au2604 contract, the long positions changed by 1,997 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by -1,796 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 1,002,716 lots, a change of -20.15% from the previous trading day [3] - On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by -25,039 lots, and the short positions changed by -10,892 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,619,975 lots, a change of 18.82% from the previous trading day [3] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,087.10 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,547 tons, an increase of 1,024 tons from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On February 3, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was -37.63 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was 4,258.64 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was about 51.00, a change of 25.57% from the previous trading day. The foreign market gold-silver ratio was 57.15, a change of 5.64% from the previous trading day [5] Fundamentals - On the previous trading day (February 3, 2026), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 53,896 kilograms, a change of -37.51% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 686,290 kilograms, a change of 223.83% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [6] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The gold price has stabilized and rebounded, and the upward logic of the overall price center remains smooth. The Au2604 contract may oscillate in the range of 1,000 yuan/gram - 1,200 yuan/gram [7] - Silver: Neutral. The silver price has also stabilized and rebounded, and the rebound is slightly stronger than that of gold. The Ag2604 contract may oscillate in the range of 21,000 yuan/kilogram - 23,500 yuan/kilogram [7] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility, with COMEX silver initially surging over 16% before retreating, while COMEX gold also saw fluctuations around the $5000 mark, indicating a turbulent trading environment influenced by geopolitical and economic factors [2][14]. Market Analysis - On January 26, 2026, COMEX silver reached a peak increase of over 16%, while spot silver rose nearly 14%, both surpassing $117 per ounce before a sharp decline, ultimately closing with a 2.5% gain [2][14]. - COMEX gold and spot gold both briefly crossed the $5000 and $5100 thresholds, respectively, but ended the day with a modest increase of 0.5%, hovering around $5000 [2][14]. - Spot palladium initially surged by 7% but closed down over 3%, reflecting the overall volatility in the precious metals market [2][14]. Economic Data - U.S. durable goods orders for November 2025 increased by 5.3%, marking the largest growth in six months and exceeding market expectations of 3.7%. Core durable goods orders rose by 0.5%, marking the eighth consecutive month of growth [2][16]. Futures Market and Trading Volume - On January 26, 2026, the main gold futures contract opened at 1113.00 CNY per gram and closed at 1143.32 CNY per gram, reflecting a change of 2.48%. The trading volume for the day was 41,087 contracts [17]. - The main silver futures contract opened at 25,228.00 CNY per kilogram and closed at 27,207.00 CNY per kilogram, showing an increase of 8.98% with a trading volume of 965,900 contracts [17][18]. ETF Holdings - As of the latest report, gold ETF holdings remained stable at 1,086.53 tons, while silver ETF holdings decreased by 14 tons to 16,090 tons [20]. Strategy Outlook - For gold, a cautious bullish stance is recommended, with expectations of a fluctuating price range between 1130 CNY per gram and 1160 CNY per gram due to rising market risk sentiment [23]. - For silver, a neutral outlook is suggested, with anticipated price fluctuations between 27,000 CNY per kilogram and 30,000 CNY per kilogram, reflecting a slightly stronger position compared to gold [25].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Sector - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Due to the emergence of market risk sentiment, the demand for gold investment may increase, and the gold price is expected to be in a slightly stronger oscillatory pattern. The Au2604 contract is expected to oscillate between 1,090 yuan/gram and 1,170 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory pattern, and the Ag2604 contract is expected to oscillate between 23,800 yuan/kg and 25,000 yuan/kg. The gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. The recommended strategy is to short the gold-silver ratio at high levels and postpone options trading [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Sections Market Analysis - Geopolitical: US President Trump stated that the ongoing Greenland agreement would grant the US "all the military access it wants" and threatened "strong retaliation" if European countries sold US assets due to Greenland-related tariff threats. Economic data: The final annualized quarterly GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2025 in the US was 4.4%, higher than the initial 4.3%, the fastest in nearly two years. The core PCE price index in November increased by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, in line with expectations. Labor market: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000 [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 22, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1,097.00 yuan/gram, closed at 1,087.58 yuan/gram, a change of -0.43% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 1,087.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1,104.52 yuan/gram, a 1.56% increase from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 23,037.00 yuan/kg, closed at 23,339.00 yuan/kg, a 0.90% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 770,373 lots, and the open interest was 307,790 lots. In the night session, it opened at 23,150 yuan/kg and closed at 24,315 yuan/kg, a 4.18% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 22, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.241%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.646%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On January 22, 2026, in the Au2604 contract, long positions decreased by 2,286 lots, and short positions decreased by 917 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous day was 550,853 lots, a 0.74% change from the previous trading day. In the Ag2604 contract, long positions increased by 7,551 lots, and short positions increased by 4,712 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous day was 1,820,246 lots, a -6.56% change from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,077.66 tons from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings decreased by 56 tons to 16,166 tons [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On January 22, 2026, the domestic gold premium was 9.99 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -332.83 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 46.60, a -1.32% change from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 51.24, a 3.81% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On January 22, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 57,076 kg, a -40.22% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 417,564 kg, a -1.28% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 60 kg [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The number of initial jobless claims in the US has cooled, and precious metals continue to fluctuate at high levels. The market risk sentiment has increased, and the demand for gold investment may slightly strengthen. The gold price is expected to be mainly fluctuating and strengthening in the near term, and the silver price is also expected to maintain a fluctuating and strengthening pattern, with the gold-silver ratio expected to continue to narrow [1][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 215,000, the lowest level since November last year. The four-week moving average dropped to 205,000, a two-year low. Trump has no plan to fire Powell for now and tends to choose the next Fed chairman between Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On January 15, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1,041.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1,035.20 yuan/gram, a change of -0.52% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1,035.98 yuan/gram, up 0.08% from the afternoon closing. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 23,488.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 22,665.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -0.43% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 1,463,056 lots, and the open interest was 344,468 lots. The night session closed at 23,089 yuan/kilogram, up 1.87% from the afternoon closing [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 15, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.169%, a change of +0.043% from the previous trading day. The 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.609%, a decrease of 1.7 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Position and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2602 contract, the long position changed by -7,964 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position changed by -890 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 392,878 lots, a change of -2.23% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long position changed by 678 lots, and the short position changed by 2,006 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 3,117,047 lots, a change of 14.39% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,074.23 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,242 tons, a decrease of 79 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On January 15, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was 1.57 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -750.38 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 45.67, a change of -0.09% from the previous trading day, and the foreign gold-silver ratio was 50.86, a change of -4.76% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On January 15, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 45,450 kilograms, a change of -31.36% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 657,202 kilograms, a change of -19.09% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 300 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: The Au2602 contract's oscillation range may be between 1,020 yuan/gram and 1,045 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The Ag2604 contract's oscillation range may be between 22,700 yuan/kilogram and 24,000 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] Options - Options are on hold [9]