市场分析 地缘上，美国总统特朗普称，他预计美国将持续多年"管理"委内瑞拉，并开采其巨大的石油储备。特朗普称，美 国"将以一种非常有利可图的方式"对委内瑞拉进行重建。特朗普还提出，2027财年美国军费应从1万亿美元提升至 1.5万亿美元。就业数据方面，美国上周初请失业金人数升至20.8万人，略低于市场预期，仍处于历史低位区间， 前值上修1000人至20万人。美国挑战者报告显示，去年12月裁员人数为35,553人，创17个月新低。 期货行情与成交量： 2026-01-08，沪金主力合约开于999.40元/克，收于997.94元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.10%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于996.70元/克，收于1001.82元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.39%。 2026-01-08，沪银主力合约开于19103.00元/千克，收于18450.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动-4.35%。当日成交 量为2142360手，持仓量为281631手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于18200元/千克，收于18368元/千克，较昨日午后 收盘下跌0.44%。 美债收益率与利差 ...

贵金属日报 | 2026-01-08 央行黄金储备持续增长 美国"小非农"数据升温 市场分析 国内方面，我国外汇储备创十年新高，黄金储备14个月连增。截至2025年12月末，我国外汇储备规模为33579亿美 元，环比上升115亿美元，再创2015年12月以来新高；黄金储备规模为7415万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，为连续第 14个月增加。海外方面，美国去年12月"小非农"温和复苏。ADP数据显示，美国企业12月私营部门就业人数增加 4.1万，扭转了前月的下滑趋势，但低于市场预期。另外，美国2025年11月JOLTS职位空缺降至714.6万个，远低于 市场预期的760万个，创2024年9月以来最低水平。 期货行情与成交量： 2026-01-07，沪金主力合约开于1006.00元/克，收于998.90元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.61%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于999.40元/克，收于1002.20元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.33%。 2026-01-07，沪银主力合约开于19460.00元/千克，收于19290.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.83% ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 市场分析 经济数据方面，美国第三季度实际GDP初值年化季环比大幅增长4.3%，远超市场预期的增长3.3%，增 速创两年来最快。消费支出强劲成为增长的最大推手，当季增速大幅加快至3.5%。三季度核心PCE物价 指数上涨2.9%。另外，美国10月核心资本品订单与出货量双双回升。此外，被视为美联储主席热门人 选的哈塞特认为，人工智能繁荣在推动经济增长的同时压低了通胀，美国在降息节奏上远远落后于全球 其他央行。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-12-23，沪金主力合约开于999.36元/克，收于1014.24元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动1.34%。当日成 交量为41087手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于1015.00元/克，收于1012.58元/克，较 昨日午后收盘下跌0.16%。 2025-12-23，沪银主力合约开于16200.00元/千克，收于16441.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动 1.43%。当日成交量为1230157手，持仓量为340510手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于16510元/千克， ...

Market Analysis - Russia-Ukraine negotiation process continues, and the ECB ends its easing policy. Putin agrees to use the US list for resolving the Ukraine issue as the basis for future negotiations and states conditions for halting armed actions. The ECB strengthens the market's expectation of the end of the current interest rate cut cycle [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On November 27, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 947.00 yuan/gram, closed at 947.16 yuan/gram, up 0.05% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 946.90 yuan/gram, down 0.03% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 12,250.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 12,525.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2.44% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,827,650 lots, and the open interest was 427,960 lots. The night session closed at 12,490 yuan/kilogram, down 0.28% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 27, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 3.988%, down 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.527%, up 1.03 BP from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes on the SHFE - On November 27, 2025, in the Au2602 contract, long positions changed by 979 lots, and short positions changed by 2,210 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 346,227 lots, down 23.63% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2602 contract, long positions changed by 1,792 lots, and short positions changed by 1,933 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 2,287,902 lots, up 11.53% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,045.43 tons, up 4.57 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,582 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 27, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -8.08 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,412.49 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was about 75.62, down 2.33% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 79.19, down 1.81% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 46,178 kilograms, down 19.28% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 864,016 kilograms, up 29.27% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 59,190 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. Due to concerns about the US economic slowdown and the possibility of further interest rate cuts in December, the gold price is expected to be in a slightly bullish and volatile pattern. The Au2602 contract may fluctuate between 920 yuan/gram and 970 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The macro logic is similar to that of gold. Due to the recovery of risk sentiment, the silver price is slightly stronger than gold, and the tight spot market drives the gold-silver ratio to narrow. The silver price is also expected to be in a slightly bullish and volatile pattern, with the Ag2602 contract fluctuating between 12,200 yuan/kilogram and 12,700 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels - Options: Hold off

Report Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [9] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10] Core View - Market risk sentiment is emerging, and the expectation that Hassett may become the Fed Chairman is rising, which may increase the demand for gold investment. Gold prices are expected to be in a range of 940 - 980 yuan/gram. Silver prices are expected to be in a range of 12300 - 12800 yuan/kilogram, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to narrow [9][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The U.S. House of Representatives will vote on a temporary appropriation bill on Wednesday evening, which may end the 43-day government shutdown. The shutdown may reduce Q4 economic growth by two percentage points, and the October CPI and employment reports may not be released. Hassett said he would accept the nomination to replace Powell as Fed Chairman and hopes for a larger rate cut in December [2]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On November 12, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 945.76 yuan/gram, down 0.33% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 41087 lots and an open interest of 129725 lots. The night session closed at 963.32 yuan/gram, up 1.86% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai silver futures closed at 12073 yuan/kilogram, up 1.62% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 669617 lots and an open interest of 235542 lots. The night session closed at 12508 yuan/kilogram, up 3.60% from the afternoon session [3]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 12, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.069%, up 0.2 BP from the previous day, and the 10-2 year spread was 0.507%, down 0.9 BP from the previous day [4]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On November 12, 2025, on the Au2512 contract, long positions decreased by 5535 lots and short positions decreased by 879 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts decreased by 8.42% from the previous day. On the Ag2512 contract, long positions increased by 5210 lots and short positions increased by 1601 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts increased by 8.09% from the previous day [5]. Precious Metal ETF Holdings Tracking - On November 12, 2025, the gold ETF holdings were 1046.36 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the silver ETF holdings were 15089 tons, also unchanged from the previous day [6]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 12, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 2.24 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1184.64 yuan/kilogram. The SHFE gold-silver ratio was about 78.34, down 1.92% from the previous day, and the foreign gold-silver ratio was 80.75, down 0.91% from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Analysis - On November 12, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 51666 kilograms, down 18.05% from the previous day, and the trading volume of silver was 870430 kilograms, up 20.04% from the previous day. The gold delivery volume was 11872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 29970 kilograms [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - After the Sino-US summit in Busan, market risk sentiment may subside, reducing the short - term safe - haven demand for gold investment. Gold prices are expected to be in a slightly stronger oscillation pattern, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 900 yuan/gram and 950 yuan/gram. Silver has a similar macro - logical relationship with gold. Due to the recovery of risk sentiment, silver prices are slightly stronger than gold, and the Ag2512 contract is expected to oscillate between 11200 yuan/kilogram and 11700 yuan/kilogram [8][9] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - After the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Trump, the two economic and trade teams reached a consensus on important economic and trade issues. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will be suspended for another year. The US will also suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule for export controls and the 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. China will adjust or suspend relevant counter - measures accordingly. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned the second - round interview of the Federal Reserve Chairman and his view on the Fed's interest rate cut [1] - The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the third consecutive time, believing that inflation has reached the 2% target level. Although the euro - zone economy shows certain resilience, geopolitical tensions and US tariff uncertainties still pose risks [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On October 30, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 919.70 yuan/gram and closed at 912.16 yuan/gram, a change of 0.14% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41087 lots, and the open interest was 129725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 910.00 yuan/gram and closed at 920.40 yuan/gram, a 0.90% increase from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 11427.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11253.00 yuan/kilogram, a - 0.75% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 820874 lots, and the open interest was 283230 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11245 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11448 yuan/kilogram, a 1.73% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 30, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.097%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.49%, a change of - 2BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 902 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions increased by 708 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 412100 lots, a 13.45% change from the previous trading day. On the Ag2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 8579 lots, and the short positions decreased by 8236 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 820874 lots, a 9.76% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1036.05 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15210 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On October 30, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 11.46 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was - 753.64 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 81.06, a 0.90% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 83.53, a - 0.79% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On October 30, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 57302 kilograms, a 9.92% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1294530 kilograms, a 113.81% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 112200 kilograms [7]

Group 1: Market Analysis - The "14th Five-Year Plan" main goals were released, boosting market sentiment. The goals include significant achievements in high-quality development, increased self-reliance in technology, breakthroughs in deepening reforms, enhanced social civilization, improved quality of life, major progress in building a beautiful China, and strengthened national security. By 2035, the aim is for China's economic, technological, defense, and comprehensive national strength to significantly rise, with per capita GDP reaching the level of moderately developed countries. This suggests an average GDP growth rate of around 5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, positively impacting current market sentiment and economic expectations [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. September CPI rose by 3% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1%. The October S&P Manufacturing PMI recorded 52.2, better than the previous 52. The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a potential halt in balance sheet contraction in the coming months, reflecting resilience in the U.S. economy and a relatively smooth path for easing [2] Group 3: Commodity Sector Analysis - The commodity market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with high volatility in previously bullish sectors. The black metal sector is under pressure from downstream demand expectations, while the non-ferrous sector is supported by long-term supply constraints and recent global easing expectations. The energy sector is viewed with a medium-term supply surplus outlook, as OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The U.S. has also imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, urging an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" potential of methanol, caustic soda, and urea is noteworthy. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations, while precious metals may enter a consolidation phase after significant fluctuations, awaiting new signals for movement [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both gold and silver is cautiously bullish [8][9] Core Viewpoints - The market tends to price in consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. With the expectation of monetary easing and risk - aversion sentiment due to the potential U.S. federal government shutdown, gold prices are expected to remain in a relatively strong oscillation. The Au2512 contract may oscillate between 860 yuan/gram and 880 yuan/gram [8] - Silver shares the same macro - level logic as gold. The easing cycle promotes the recovery of silver's industrial demand, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to narrow. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 10500 yuan/kilogram and 11500 yuan/kilogram [10] - The strategy for arbitrage is to short the gold - silver ratio at high levels, and the option strategy is to postpone [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In terms of interest rates, Fed's Williams supported the interest rate cut at the last meeting due to signs of labor market weakness, and estimated the real neutral interest rate at 0.75%. Musalem is open to future rate cuts but advocates caution, expecting inflation to remain high in the next two to three quarters [1] - Regarding tariffs, U.S. President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all movies made outside the U.S. and large tariffs on countries that do not manufacture furniture in the U.S. to boost domestic industries [1] - On the fiscal front, U.S. Senate Republicans will vote again on Tuesday on a bill to avoid a government shutdown, while Democrats rejected the short - term temporary spending bill [1] - Geopolitically, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu held a bilateral meeting. Trump said Netanyahu accepted his Gaza peace plan, which could end the war immediately if both sides agree, and requires Gaza to be temporarily governed by a non - political Palestinian technical bureaucracy [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 29, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 857.70 yuan/gram and closed at 866.52 yuan/gram, a 1.22% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41087 lots, and the open interest was 129725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 866.88 yuan/gram and closed at 870.42 yuan/gram, a 0.45% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On September 29, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 10651.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10939.00 yuan/kilogram, a 2.89% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1527083 lots, and the open interest was 508967 lots. In the night session, it opened at 10883 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10907 yuan/kilogram, a 0.29% decrease from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 29, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.137%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 year spread was 0.521%, up 0.41 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 86 lots and short positions decreased by 108 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 471378 lots, a 4.54% decrease from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 2294694 lots, a 45.70% increase from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,005.72 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,521 tons, an increase of 159 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On September 29, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 13.84 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 1233.70 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 79.21, a 1.93% decrease from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 83.31, a 0.23% decrease from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On September 29, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 61916 kilograms, a 5.38% decrease from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 538718 kilograms, a 43.68% increase from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 32380 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 12450 kilograms [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] Core View of the Report - The divergence within the Federal Reserve has increased, and the US economic data continues to be weak. The market tends to bet on the Fed's interest rate cut. Therefore, the gold price is expected to be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern in the near future, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 845 yuan/gram and 875 yuan/gram. The silver price is also expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 10,250 yuan/kilogram and 10,550 yuan/kilogram [8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The divergence within the Federal Reserve on the future monetary policy path has increased. Fed Governor Bowman supports three 25-basis-point interest rate cuts this year, while Goolsbee believes the Fed should be cautious about further rate cuts. The US economic data in September showed that the preliminary value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 52, the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 53.9, and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 53.6, all lower than expected and hitting a three-month low [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On September 23, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 847.50 yuan/gram and closed at 855.44 yuan/gram, up 1.06% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 258,495 lots, and the open interest was 271,554 lots. The night session opened at 861.34 yuan/gram and closed at 859.88 yuan/gram, up 0.52% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 10,276 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10,349 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 811,054 lots, and the open interest was 508,755 lots. The night session opened at 10,442 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10,394 yuan/kilogram, up 0.43% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 23, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.106%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.533%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2502 contract, the long positions increased by 2,078 lots compared with the previous day, while the short positions decreased by 458 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 398,549 lots, up 9.79% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,690 lots, and the short positions increased by 1 lot. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,332,060 lots, down 0.63% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 1,000.57 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,469 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 23, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -18.29 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1,005.13 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 82.66, up 0.74% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 85.33, down 0.52% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On September 23, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 53,156 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 548,328 kilograms, down 9.60% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 10,000 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 55,200 kilograms [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10] Core View - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but Fed Chair Powell's speech showed some hawkish signals. Although the short-term may suppress gold prices, the logic of the easing cycle remains unchanged, and the financial attributes of precious metals are expected to continue to expand [1][8]. - Silver currently shares the same macro - easing logic as gold, and its price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut this year and the first in 9 months. After the FOMC statement, the probability of a Fed rate cut in October is over 90%. Powell said employment growth has slowed, inflation has risen slightly, and there are still inflation risks [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 17, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 841.16 yuan/gram and closed at 835.08 yuan/gram, down 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 835.66 yuan/gram, down 0.24% from the afternoon close [2]. - On September 17, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 10,128 yuan/kg and closed at 9,906 yuan/kg, down 2.00% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 457,876 lots, and the open interest was 171,891 lots. The night - session closed at 9,924 yuan/kg, down 0.09% from the afternoon close [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 17, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.091%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.536%, down 0.85 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On September 17, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long position changed by 136 lots and the short position changed by 171 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 366,327 lots, a change of 16.67% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long position changed by 2 lots and the short position changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,303,544 lots, a change of 33.27% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 975.66 tons, down 4.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,189.61 tons, down 28.23 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 17, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 10.30 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 860.41 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 84.30, a change of 1.19% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 86.56, a change of 0.41% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On September 17, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 57,144 kg, a change of 30.88% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 748,504 kg, a change of 47.11% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 10,740 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 62,070 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: Buy on dips in the range of 815 - 820 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: Buy on dips in the range of 9,750 - 9,800 yuan/kg [10]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [10]. - Options: On hold [10]