1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [7] - Silver: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: On hold [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks remain, and the market is waiting for non-farm payroll data. The potential military action between the US and Iran and the Fed's policy stance are influencing the market. The current market sentiment may lead to an increase in the demand for gold investment, and the prices of gold and silver are expected to remain volatile [1][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical aspect: US President Trump is considering sending another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East in case the negotiation with Iran fails. The second round of US-Iran talks is expected to be held next week [1]. - Fed aspect: Fed officials Logan and Harker believe that the Fed's policy stance is close to the neutral level, and if inflation falls and the labor market remains stable in the next few months, there is no need for further interest rate cuts, and the interest rate policy may remain unchanged for a long time [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On February 10, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,122.92 yuan/gram, closed at 1,121.22 yuan/gram, down 0.42% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1,119.74 yuan/gram, down 0.13% from the afternoon session [2]. - The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 20,500.00 yuan/kg, closed at 20,284.00 yuan/kg, down 2.82% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 611,557 lots, and the open interest was 216,295 lots. The night session closed at 20,242 yuan/kg, down 0.21% from the afternoon session [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 10, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.143%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.695, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Open Interest and Trading Volume Changes - On the Au2604 contract, the long position increased by 1,706 lots, and the short position decreased by 1,001 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract was 291,869 lots, down 34.80% from the previous trading day [3]. - On the Ag2604 contract, the long position decreased by 4,408 lots, and the short position decreased by 3,637 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 1,266,314 lots, down 35.76% from the previous trading day [3]. Precious Metal ETF Holdings Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 1,079.66 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 16,191 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On February 10, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -7.03 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -35.31 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 55.28, up 2.47% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 62.13, up 5.27% from the previous trading day [5]. Fundamentals - On February 10, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 31,462 kg, down 33.84% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 288,342 kg, down 12.03% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kg [6]. Strategy - Gold: Due to the incomplete clearing of market risk aversion, the demand for gold investment may increase slightly. It is expected that the gold price will be mainly volatile and strong in the near future, and the oscillation range of the Au2604 contract may be between 1,080 yuan/gram - 1,180 yuan/gram [7]. - Silver: The silver price is currently oscillating with gold, and due to the recovery of risk sentiment, the silver price is basically stable. It is expected that the silver price will also maintain an oscillating pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2604 contract may be between 20,000 yuan/kg - 21,500 yuan/kg [7][8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio on rallies [8]. - Options: On hold [8]

美国就业数据表现趋弱 美联储释放偏鹰信号 市场分析 地缘方面，伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐率领的代表团抵达阿曼首都马斯喀特，将出席与美国代表团举行的核问题谈判。 据悉，代表团成员还包括伊朗外交部政治事务副部长拉万奇、法律与国际事务副部长加里巴巴迪以及外交部发言 人巴加埃等多名外交官。一名谈判代表团成员表示，本轮对话的重点将仅限于核问题，媒体关于其他潜在议题的 各种猜测均不属实，也无法得到确认。美联储方面，美联储理事库克表示，美联储必须在近期将通胀率拉回目标 水平，这对于维护其信誉至关重要。库克认为，目前风险偏向于通胀上行，同时经济前景不确定性仍处高位。经 济数据方面，美国1月挑战者裁员数量飙升至10.84万人，新增招聘岗位仅5300多个，均创17年来同期最差。去年12 月职位空缺数量大幅下降至654万，为2020年以来最低。上周初请失业金人数则意外大增2.2万至23.1万。 期货行情与成交量： 贵金属日报 | 2026-02-06 2026-02-05，沪金主力合约开于1131.84元/克，收于1105.76元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-3.15%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力 ...

贵金属日报 | 2026-01-30 停摆危机再现 贵金属走出"过山车"行情 市场分析 贵金属市场再度上演"过山车"行情。1月29日，黄金、白银在亚市、欧市交易时段强势走高，现货黄金一度逼近5600 美元/盎司关口，现货白银则连续突破117、118、119、120和121美元/盎司五道关口。纽约市场交易时段金银价格 急转直下，现货黄金直线跳水跌近6%失守5100美元/盎司关口，现货白银则跌超8%失守107美元/盎司，但随后跌幅 双双收窄。美国方面，美国国会参议院在程序性投票中未能推进已获众议院通过的政府拨款法案，美国联邦政府 再次面临部分"停摆"的危机。美国数个联邦部门的运转资金将于1月30日耗尽。地缘方面，伊朗已于1月29日通过 高频无线电向过往船只发布通告，宣布将于2月1日至2日在霍尔木兹海峡举行军事演习，演习内容包括实弹射击。 整体看贵金属避险溢价支撑仍在。 期货行情与成交量： 2026-01-29，沪金主力合约开于1189.60元/克，收于1249.12元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动5.30%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于1246.00元/克，收于1202 ...

Macro Perspective - Gold and silver prices experienced a pullback during the week of January 16, 2026. President Trump expressed a desire for Hassett to remain in his current position rather than move to the Federal Reserve, making former Fed governor Kevin Walsh a leading candidate for the next Fed chair [2][10] - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson stated that interest rates are aligned with neutral levels and that the current policy stance is "well-positioned." The economy is expected to grow by 2% in the short term, with the unemployment rate remaining stable [2][10] - Fed Governor Bowman indicated that current monetary policy remains moderately restrictive and that officials should be prepared to lower rates further if the job market does not improve. She noted that inflationary pressures are easing and emphasized the need to monitor risks to the Fed's "full employment" mission [2][10] Fundamental Data - As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold warehouse receipts totaled 100,053 kg, an increase of 2,400 kg from the previous week. Silver warehouse receipts changed by 6,581 kg to 626,843 kg [3][11] - On the Comex, gold inventories decreased by 176,016.78 ounces to 36,135,901.13 ounces, while silver inventories fell by 10,584,062.04 ounces to 429,156,441.13 ounces [3][11] - As of January 16, 2026, the SPDR Gold ETF held 1,074.80 tons, and the SLV Silver ETF held 16,073 tons. As of January 13, 2025, speculative net long positions in gold were 136,548 contracts, while silver net long positions were 15,045 contracts [4][12] Market Strategy - Gold is rated as neutral. Recent adjustments in precious metals are notable, with market expectations for Hassett's potential appointment as Fed chair leading to increased uncertainty regarding future rate cuts, which negatively impacts gold prices. However, the long-term logic for gold remains intact as a substitute for dollar assets [5][13] - Silver is also rated as neutral. The price of silver has seen a significant pullback, and while it is still advisable to buy on dips for hedging, there is a need for careful position management and strict stop-loss execution due to silver's inherent volatility [6][14] - An arbitrage strategy suggests shorting the gold-silver ratio at high levels, while options strategies are currently on hold [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions are intensifying, which may increase the demand for gold investment and lead to a slightly stronger and volatile gold price in the near term [1][8] - Silver prices are relatively stronger than gold due to geopolitical risks and ongoing physical shortages, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to narrow [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Trump administration is discussing various options to acquire Greenland, including purchase, free association, and military means, and this issue is considered a national security priority by the White House [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 6, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 994.02 yuan/gram, closed at 1004.98 yuan/gram, up 1.00% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 41,087 lots and an open interest of 129,725 lots. Overnight, it closed at 1008.74 yuan/gram, up 0.37% from the afternoon close [2] - On the same day, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 18,126.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 19,452.00 yuan/kilogram, up 6.60% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 1,929,943 lots and an open interest of 277,149 lots. Overnight, it closed at 19,820 yuan/kilogram, up 1.89% from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 6, 2026, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.169%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.714%, also unchanged [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Trading Volume Changes - On January 6, 2026, in the Au2602 contract, the long position decreased by 1,662 lots and the short position decreased by 2,686 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts increased by 61.30% to 308,118 lots [4] - In the Ag2604 contract, the long position increased by 19,204 lots and the short position increased by 21,768 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts increased by 168.34% to 2,896,340 lots [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position remained unchanged at 1,065.13 tons, while the silver ETF position decreased by 90 tons to 16,354 tons compared to the previous day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On January 6, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -5.23 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,012.04 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was approximately 51.66, down 5.25% from the previous day, while the overseas gold-silver ratio was 59.10, up 2.03% [6] Fundamental Analysis - On January 6, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D market was 44,252 kilograms, up 0.55% from the previous day. The silver trading volume was 876,640 kilograms, up 33.34% [7] - The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 6,000 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold is expected to trade in a range of 990 - 1015 yuan/gram, and the overall trend is expected to be slightly stronger and volatile [8] - Silver is expected to trade in a range of 19,000 - 20,500 yuan/kilogram. The gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to narrow [8] - The strategy for arbitrage is to short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical events and economic data may boost the allocation value of physical assets such as gold, and the market's risk sentiment has increased, leading to a potential increase in the demand for gold investment. It is expected that the gold price will mainly show a volatile and upward trend in the near future, and the silver price will also maintain a volatile and upward pattern, with the gold-silver ratio expected to narrow [1][8] Market Analysis - Geopolitical aspect: Switzerland has frozen all assets held by Maduro and related individuals in Switzerland, which may further promote the allocation value of physical assets such as gold [1] - Economic data: The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and reaching a new low since October 2024. New orders have contracted for four consecutive months, export orders remain weak, and employment has declined for 11 consecutive months [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 5, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 991.00 yuan/gram and closed at 995.00 yuan/gram, a change of 1.78% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1001.60 yuan/gram, a 0.66% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On January 5, 2026, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 18,200.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 18,247.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 6.87% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 671,811 lots, and the open interest was 238,881 lots. The night session closed at 18,745 yuan/kilogram, a 2.73% decrease from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 5, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.165%, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.71%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2602 contract, the long positions changed by 214 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by -2,347 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 191,025 lots, a change of -27.68% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by 9,187 lots, and the short positions changed by 3,136 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,079,343 lots, a change of -6.54% from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings were 1,065.13 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 16,444 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On January 5, 2026, the domestic gold premium was 4.45 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -834.29 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was approximately 54.53, a change of 5.27% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 59.11, a change of 2.03% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On January 5, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 44,012 kilograms, a change of -29.34% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 657,430 kilograms, a change of -2.87% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 9,030 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: It is expected that the gold price will mainly show a volatile and upward trend in the near future, and the Au2602 contract's oscillation range may be between 970 yuan/gram and 1020 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The silver price is expected to maintain a volatile and upward pattern, and the Ag2604 contract's oscillation range may be between 18,400 yuan/kilogram and 19,400 yuan/kilogram. The gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [4] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Go long on the gold-silver ratio on dips [6] - Options: Hold off [6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long term, gold remains a hard-to-replace alternative asset to the US dollar, and with the expected downward movement of real interest rates in the future, it is recommended to buy on dips. However, there is a risk of further short-term corrections. Silver showed a strong unilateral upward trend in December, with a short-term sharp correction near the end of the year. Short-term risk assets still face a risk of decline, and it is advisable to take a wait-and-see approach [4][5] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Market News and Key Data - Precious Metals Main Logic - **Interest Rates**: In December 2025, the Fed's last rate cut of the year was implemented, with the federal funds rate target range lowered to 3.50%–3.75%. The market generally interprets the monthly purchase of about $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds starting from December 12 as a loose signal. There are significant differences in the outlook for the Fed's rate cut path in 2026, and the overall tone for the rate cut rhythm is neutral [1] - **Inflation**: In December 2025, the breakeven inflation rate increased by 2BP to 2.25%. In November, the core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, the slowest since early 2021, lower than the expected 3%. The overall CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1%. However, the reliability of this inflation report is questioned due to data collection interference [2] - **Exchange Rates**: In December 2025, the US dollar index decreased by 1.18%. The US dollar index continued to be weak in December, with the market fully pricing in the Fed's rate cut expectations. President Trump's statement about a nominee for the next Fed chair who supports "substantial" rate cuts further weakened the US dollar index [2] - **Market Risk Pricing**: The VIX index rose slightly at the end of December. Trump will sign a nearly $1 trillion annual defense policy bill. The 2026 Fiscal Year National Defense Authorization Act approves annual military spending of $901 billion, a record high. Uncertainty remains high regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict peace agreement [3] - **ETF Holdings**: As of December 31, 2025, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1070.56 tons, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 16444.14 tons. Global precious metal ETF physical holdings continued to rise in 2025, driving up the prices of gold and silver [3] Strategy - **Gold**: Although the gold price has declined in the short term, it is recommended to buy on dips in the long term. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy the Au2604 contract at 970 yuan/g - 980 yuan/g [4] - **Silver**: Silver showed a strong upward trend in December and a short-term sharp correction near the end of the year. It is advisable to take a wait-and-see approach in the short term, with the price oscillating between 16,500 yuan/kg - 18,000 yuan/kg [5] Basis Analysis of Precious Metals - **Gold Basis**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange spot price is stronger than the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold price. The market still expects future Fed monetary easing, and the logic of gold as a substitute for US dollar assets is being realized. The strategy is to short the basis and close the position when the spot discount converges [9] - **Silver Basis**: The tight silver spot inventory has led to a short squeeze in the market. The strategy is to go long on the basis and close the position when the futures discount converges [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - The market is currently volatile. The significant correction in silver prices may suppress gold prices, but the long-term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the Au2602 contract oscillating between 950 yuan/gram and 1020 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with the Ag2602 contract oscillating between 17,000 yuan/kilogram and 18,200 yuan/kilogram [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Trump will announce the Fed Chair nominee at an appropriate time and has criticized Fed Chair Powell and the Fed's building renovation. He is considering suing Powell for incompetence. Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky, and both sides said the talks "made great progress" but did not make any major announcements. Zelensky emphasized that the territorial issue remains difficult and must ultimately be decided by the Ukrainian people [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On December 29, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 1015.38 yuan/gram and closed at 1007.18 yuan/gram, down 0.90% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. During the night session, it opened at 1004.72 yuan/gram and closed at 975.80 yuan/gram, down 3.12% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 18,215.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 18,201.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.58% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 2,328,363 lots, and the open interest was 216,399 lots. During the night session, it opened at 18,000 yuan/kilogram and closed at 17,237 yuan/kilogram, down 5.32% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 29, 2025, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note closed at 4.11%, down 1.8 basis points from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.66%, up 0.5 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume Changes - On December 29, 2025, on the Au2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 9,083 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 2,516 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 502,157 lots, up 4.22% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 31,114 lots, and the short positions decreased by 30,969 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts on the previous trading day was 4,930,646 lots, down 14.05% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF holdings were 1,071.13 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 16,391 tons, down 56 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On December 29, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -10.75 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1,735.58 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was approximately 55.34, down 4.27% from the previous trading day. The price ratio of gold and silver in the overseas market was 64.27, up 0.96% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 57,238 kilograms, up 78.16% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,602,424 kilograms, up 106.00% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 2,280 kilograms [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2) Core Viewpoints - The macro environment has frequent catalysts, and precious metals continue to show strong performance. With the increase in market risk sentiment, the demand for gold investment may rise, and the price of gold is expected to be in a volatile and slightly strong pattern. Silver's price is also expected to remain strong due to spot shortages, but the risk of historical high prices should be watched out for [1][8]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 25, the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose above the "7" integer mark during intraday trading for the first time in 15 months, reaching a maximum of 6.9985. The onshore RMB against the US dollar approached the "7" mark, reaching a maximum of 7.0053. Israel's high - level officials signaled a possible military conflict with Iran again. The Bank of Japan's governor said that it is steadily approaching the 2% inflation target and may raise interest rates if the economic outlook is in line with expectations [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On December 25, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1,013.94 yuan/gram, closed at 1,008.76 yuan/gram, a change of - 0.58% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it closed at 1,019.60 yuan/gram, up 1.07% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 17,630.00 yuan/kg, closed at 17,397.00 yuan/kg, a change of - 1.20% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,313,979 lots, and the open interest was 304,054 lots. In the night session, it closed at 18,131 yuan/kg, up 4.22% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 25, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.136%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.63%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On December 25, 2025, in the Au2602 contract, the long position decreased by 4,521 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position decreased by 92 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 307,456 lots, a change of - 37.41% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2602 contract, the long position decreased by 15,678 lots, and the short position decreased by 14,342 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 3,355,499 lots, a change of 1.64% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,068.27 tons, an increase of 3.71 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,447 tons, a decrease of 56 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On December 25, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 0.74 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 615.93 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 57.98, a change of 0.63% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 64.27, a change of 0.96% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On December 25, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 28,920 kg, a change of - 48.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 502,128 kg, a change of - 50.32% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 31,890 kg [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Go long on the gold-silver ratio on dips [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The cooling inflation risk in the US strengthens the expectation of monetary easing. The market risk sentiment has increased, and the expectation of loose future monetary policy may slightly boost the demand for gold investment. Gold prices are expected to be in a slightly bullish oscillation pattern, while silver prices are expected to remain in a short - term oscillation pattern [1][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Inflation: In November, the US core CPI rose 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest since early 2021, lower than the expected 3%. The overall CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1%. However, the reliability of this inflation report is questioned due to data collection interference [1]. - Fed: US President Trump said the nominee for the next Fed chair will be announced soon, and the candidate supports "substantial" interest rate cuts [1]. - Employment: Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 13,000 to 224,000, slightly lower than expected. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week increased by 67,000 to 1.897 million, lower than the expected 1.93 million [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On December 18, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 977.00 yuan/gram and closed at 980.50 yuan/gram, a 0.08% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 980.20 yuan/gram, a 0.03% decline from the afternoon close [2]. - On December 18, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 15,447.00 yuan/kg and closed at 15,521.00 yuan/kg, a 0.06% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,571,738 lots, and the open interest was 363,402 lots. The night session closed at 15,228 yuan/kg, an 1.89% decline from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 18, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.12%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.66%, a +2.5 BP change from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On December 18, 2025, in the Au2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 522 lots, and the short positions decreased by 879 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 318,388 lots, a 9.26% decrease from the previous trading day [4]. - In the Ag2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 16,620 lots, and the short positions decreased by 14,086 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 2,736,170 lots, a 4.76% decrease from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,052.54 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,018 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On December 18, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 9.56 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 1,308.48 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 63.17, a 0.02% change from the previous trading day, and the foreign - market gold - silver ratio was 65.43, a 3.64% decline from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On December 18, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 42,672 kg, a 14.24% decrease from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 900,984 kg, a 31.79% decrease from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 89,940 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: Due to the increasing market risk sentiment and the expected loose monetary policy, gold investment demand may increase slightly. The Au2602 contract is expected to oscillate between 960 yuan/gram and 990 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The silver price has slightly declined and may face profit - taking pressure after reaching a new high. Benefiting from the easing expectation, the Ag2602 contract is expected to oscillate between 14,800 yuan/kg and 15,800 yuan/kg [8].