贵金属日报 | 2025-08-14 美财长呼吁降息 市场关注"普特会"会晤成果 策略摘要 上期所金银持仓与成交量变化情况： 2025-08-13，Au2508合约上，多头较前一日变化-24手，空头则是变化-60手。沪金合约上个交易日总成交量为268832 手，较前一交易日变化10.32%。在沪银方面，在Ag2508合约上，多头变动-754手，空头变动-550手。白银合约上 个交易日总成交量640354手，较前一交易日变化46.37%。 贵金属ETF持仓跟踪： 贵金属ETF方面，昨日黄金ETF持仓为964.22吨，较前一交易日上行4.58吨。白银ETF持仓为15099.56吨，较前一交 易日上行40.96吨。 贵金属套利跟踪： 期现价差：2025-08-13，国内溢价方面，昨日黄金国内溢价为-9.96元/克，白银国内溢价为-641.74元/千克。金银比 价：昨日上期所金银主力合约价格比约为83.63，较前一交易日变动-1.00%，外盘金银比价为88.82，较上一交易日 变化-0.13%。 基本面： 货币政策方面，美国财长贝森特发出了美国政府迄今为止最明确的降息呼吁，要求美联储立即启动新一轮降息周 期，并表示美 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-08-13 通胀数据降温 降息预期获进一步巩固 策略摘要 通胀方面，美国7月CPI同比持平于2.7%，低于预期的2.8%，环比则上涨0.2%符合市场预期。7月核心CPI同比上涨 3.1%，高于预期的3%，创2月份以来新高；数据公布后，市场预计美联储在9月会议上降息的概率超过90%。货币 政策预期方面，美国总统特朗普再次督促美联储降息，并威胁称正考虑允许对美联储主席鲍威尔提起重大诉讼； 财长贝森特表示应考虑在9月降息50个基点；并希望找到一个可以"革新"美联储的人。关税进展方面，中美双方发 布《中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明》。美方承诺继续调整对中国商品（包括香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政区 商品）加征关税的措施，自8月12日起继续暂停实施24%的对等关税90天。中方自8月12日起继续暂停实施24%对美 加征关税以及有关非关税反制措施90天。在不可靠实体清单方面，中方继续暂停4月4日公告相关措施90天，停止4 月9日公告相关措施。整体看，通胀降温叠加美经济成色数据引发市场担忧，9月美联储降息预期被进一步加强， 对贵金属价格形成强支撑。 基本面： 期货行情与成交量： 2025-08-12， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The main focus of precious metals is on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and rhythm. Multiple Fed officials are open to a shift to loose monetary policy, strongly supporting precious metal prices. If economic growth data resonates with the July US non-farm payrolls data, it may accelerate the Fed's monetary policy shift to a looser stance and further push up gold prices [8]. - The trading logic of silver is generally in sync with that of gold, with future loose expectations on the macro level as the main line, and its pricing weight is higher than the supply-demand fundamentals of silver. With the logic of the gold-silver ratio returning, silver prices are expected to continue the upward trend [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Summary - Macro: Fed officials' statements indicate that the expectation of a shift to loose monetary policy within the Fed is rising, which is expected to support precious metal prices. Geopolitical risk premium has a relatively low weight in precious metal pricing, and the short-term main line lies in the Fed's loose expectations and rhythm [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On August 6, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 782.80 yuan/gram and closed at 783.68 yuan/gram, a change of 0.15% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 781.96 yuan/gram, down 0.22% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,104.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,182.00 yuan/kg, a change of 1.18% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 372,060 lots, and the open interest was 373,376 lots. The night session closed at 9,180 yuan/kg, down 0.02% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 6, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.22%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.53%, up 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On August 6, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 249 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 336 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 239,517 lots, a change of -0.54% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,516 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,708 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 532,607 lots, a change of 17.04% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The position of the gold ETF was 952.79 tons, down 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 15,112.28 tons, up 67.8 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 6, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was -10.74 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -706.17 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 85.35, a change of -1.02% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 90.05, a change of -0.41% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On August 6, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 29,226 kg, a change of -14.53% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 231,594 kg, a change of -14.47% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 9,764 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 15,690 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: The Au2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 765 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The Ag2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 8,950 yuan/kg and 9,450 yuan/kg [9]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-09 特朗普顾问再次批评鲍威尔拒绝降息的行为 市场要闻与重要数据 特朗普首席贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦罗（Peter Navarro）当地时间周一撰文怒斥鲍威尔，称其可能成为有史以来最糟糕 的一位美联储主席。文中指出，尽管有大量数据敦促鲍威尔降息，但他仍固执地拒绝，这将成为他六年来的第三 次重大政策失误，他进一步声称，如果他在7月29日的美联储会议上继续这条紧缩货币政策路线，"为时已晚"的 鲍威尔将沦为历史上最糟糕的美联储主席。但关税对于通胀的影响在未来也必然是美联储需要考虑的因素。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-07-08，沪金主力合约开于 771.66元/克，收于 776.22元/克，较前一交易日收盘 0.64%。当日成交量为 187574手，持仓量为 179131手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 774.98 元/克，收于 769.52 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 下降0.65%。 2025-07-08，沪银主力合约开于 8856元/千克，收于 8953元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 418168手，持仓量 338144手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 894 ...

市场要闻与重要数据 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-08 白宫再度呼吁干预鲍威尔的立场 降息概率再加大 昨日，特朗普向14国发出关税信函，8月1日起对日韩进口商品征收25%的关税，对马来西亚、南非、印尼、缅甸、 泰国等征收25%至40%的关税，任何与金砖国家反美政策结盟的国家，关税再加10%，并签署行政令将对等关税 暂缓期延长至8月1日；白宫官员称不会将特定国家关税与行业关税叠加。此外，美联储主席热门候选人沃什表示， 应降息至更低水平，白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗呼也吁美联储理事会对鲍威尔的立场采取干预措施。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-07-07，沪金主力合约开于 775.38元/克，收于 771.30元/克，较前一交易日收盘 -0.74%。当日成交量为 190256手，持仓量为 175760手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 771.66 元/克，收于 775.68 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.36%。 2025-07-07，沪银主力合约开于 8919元/千克，收于 8872元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 261611手，持仓量 229481手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,856 ...

Market News and Key Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending June 7 was 248,000, higher than the expected 240,000, reaching a new high since the week ending October 5, 2024 [1] - The monthly rate of the US core PPI in May was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.30%. Traders fully priced in two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, and the US dollar declined for two consecutive days [1] - US President Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell and demanded a 200 - basis - point interest rate cut [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On June 12, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 777.00 yuan/gram and closed at 785.16 yuan/gram, up 0.98% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 218,198 lots, and the open interest was 172,351 lots. In the night session, it opened at 786.98 yuan/gram and closed at 786.02 yuan/gram, up 0.65% from the afternoon close [2] - On June 12, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 8,859 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,819 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 662,487 lots, and the open interest was 432,670 lots. In the night session, it opened at 8,818 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,787 yuan/kilogram, down 0.53% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 12, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond closed at 4.41%, down 0.06% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds was 0.46%, down 1 basis point from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2502 contract on June 12, 2025, long positions decreased by 72 lots compared to the previous day, and short positions decreased by 618 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts on the previous trading day was 427,902 lots, up 36.23% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2502 contract, long positions decreased by 5,010 lots, and short positions increased by 1,704 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,085,408 lots, down 20.62% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The position of the gold ETF was 937.91 tons on the previous day, up 3.72 tons from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 14,729.08 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On June 12, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was - 2.53 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was - 523.63 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 89.03, up 1.93% from the previous trading day. The price ratio of gold and silver in the overseas market was 92.85, up 1.75% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On June 12, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 50,430 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 805,092 kilograms, up 64.55% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 15,196 kilograms, and the delivery volume of silver was 40,230 kilograms [7] Investment Recommendations - Gold: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with an operating range of 760 - 765 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. It is still advisable to buy on dips for hedging, but avoid aggressive chasing. More attention should be paid to position control and strict stop - loss [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: Put on hold [8]

贵金属日报 | 2025-06-11 重要经济数据及事件相对稀疏 贵金属暂陷震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 在关税事宜方面，据外媒称，印度和美国有望在月底前达成一项临时贸易协议、美墨接近就钢铁进口关税达成协 议。此外，特朗普称，洛杉矶骚乱事件是"外国入侵"。美法官驳回加州有关立即阻止特朗普政府向该州派兵的 请求。地缘方面，俄驻美大使表示，俄美新一轮会谈将于近期在莫斯科举行。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-06-10，沪金主力合约开于 774.00元/克，收于 775.06元/克，较前一交易日收盘 0.04%。当日成交量为 179960手，持仓量为 170163手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 777.70 元/克，收于 774.96 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.23%。 2025-06-10，沪银主力合约开于 8900元/千克，收于 8887元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 969816手，持仓量 465984手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,910 元/千克，收于 8,889 元/千克，较昨日午后收盘 下降0.43%。 美债收益率与利差监控： 2025-06-10，美国 10 年期国债利率收于 ...