无法保证所有推进 AI 投资的企业都能生存下去（Reuters） 山下晃：经过工业革命，钢铁大量生产成为可能，随后铁路公司只要铺好轨路，运输人员和物资就能获 得收入。修建这些设施需要巨额资本，狂热的结果也产生了很多破产。任何一次投资热潮，押注需求增 加的资金的流入都会变得过热…… 山下晃： 为了人工智能（AI）的发展和普及，构成支撑的基础设施投资正趋于过热。从过去的历史中 我们可以看到，改变社会的大型基础设施建设都是在经历多次失败的情况下完成的。开始有人将最近的 AI热潮与投资热之后出现众多失败者的19世纪"铁路热潮时代"联系起来。 "搁浅资产化"的风险 "就像其他技术基础设施的投资周期所发生的那样，一些投资者或将受到严重伤害"，这是正处于AI投资 漩涡之中的OpenAI首席执行官（CEO）萨姆·奥尔特曼的话。 投资热潮带动了金融技术发展 在美国，仅1877年就有55家公司破产，到第二年又有60家破产。1893年，由于投资过剩导致收益恶化， 联合太平洋铁路和北太平洋铁路等主要铁路公司因债务偿还资金问题而破产。事态得到稳定是在摩根家 族推进铁路公司的重组和规模化的"摩根化"之后。 而在英国，19世纪也掀起了被称 ...

Group 1 - Japan is experiencing a significant investment boom, with financial literacy becoming more prevalent among the population, as evidenced by the establishment of dedicated sections in bookstores and advertisements for investment seminars on public transport [1][2] - As of the end of 2023, over 50% of Japanese household assets are held in cash and bank deposits, compared to only 1/8 in the United States [1] - The introduction of the new NISA system in 2024 has exceeded expectations, with 5 million new accounts opened and total assets reaching 59 trillion yen, achieving the government's target three years ahead of schedule [1] Group 2 - Japan's core inflation rate has risen to 3.7%, prompting a shift in public perception towards investment as a necessary means to protect existing assets due to the diminishing value of idle cash [2] - The Tokyo Stock Exchange has mandated listed companies to focus on capital costs and stock price management, leading to record-high stock buybacks and dividend payouts [2] - The government is considering a "Platinum NISA" plan to allow individuals aged 65 and older to invest tax-free in monthly dividend funds, recognizing the importance of this demographic in asset management [2] Group 3 - Critics point out that approximately half of the funds invested through the NISA system are flowing into foreign stock markets, with 80% to 90% of investments made through mutual funds [2] - New investors often default to investing in the S&P 500 or global stock indices, indicating a strategic approach to diversification rather than reliance on the domestic market [2]