在一、二线城市增长潜力逐步被挖掘后，白酒企业的下一个战场在哪里？ 县域市场，正逐渐走向舞台中央。 对白酒行业而言，如何在高端消费趋缓之际转入能够承接大众消费的县域市场，或许将成为决定其胜负 的关键所在。 不可忽视的县域基础：3成人口，3成经济体量 第七次全国人口普查数据显示，中国一线城市常住人口约8299万，新一线城市约1.81亿，二线城市约 2.45亿。一、二线城市仍是经济与消费高度集中的区域，但这并不意味着县域可以被忽略。 国家统计局编著的《中国统计年鉴2024》、民政部发布的《2023年民政事业发展统计公报》等资料显 示，截至2023年底，全国共有1813个县级行政单元，包括397个县级市、1299个县和117个自治县。 从人口结构看，截至2020年底，县级市与县城城区常住人口约为2.5亿，镇常住人口约2亿，两者合计约 4.5亿人，占全国城镇常住人口的比例接近三分之一。 那么，县域经济体量如何？ 多项研究测算显示，截至2020年前后，中国县域经济体量在30万亿元左右，在全国经济总量中的占比接 近三分之一。 多家研究机构判断，未来相当长的一段时间内，中国消费增长的重要增量，将更多来自三线及以下城 市，以及 ...

Core Insights - The central economic work conference in December 2025 will prioritize boosting consumption as a key macro policy, highlighting its importance in China's economic strategy [2] - The report by Black Ant Capital focuses on the county-level economy, which is crucial for understanding the future of consumption in China, emphasizing the need for in-depth field research [2][3] Group 1: County Market Dynamics - The county market represents about one-third of China's population (450 million people) and GDP (33%), making it a significant area for consumption growth [3] - The county economy exhibits stronger consumption resilience compared to first-tier cities, with unique challenges such as "scale inefficiency" [3][4] - The rise of brands like Mixue Ice Cream and Mingming Busy from lower-tier markets indicates the potential of county economies in shaping future consumption trends [3][4] Group 2: Consumer Behavior Changes - From 2022 to 2025, county residents have become more cautious in their spending, particularly on non-essential items, reflecting a shift from identity-driven consumption to practical and emotional needs [13][24] - The demand for identity symbols has decreased, with consumers prioritizing practical value and emotional connections in their purchasing decisions [24][28] - There is a notable increase in the importance of "gaining knowledge" as a consumer need, indicating a shift towards valuing experiences and personal growth [24][28] Group 3: Spending Patterns - County households are experiencing stable income levels, yet they are actively reducing discretionary spending, particularly on clothing and identity-related items [13][50] - Essential expenditures such as education and healthcare remain a priority, while personal discretionary spending is being redirected towards experiences that provide immediate satisfaction and long-term health benefits [35][37] - The trend indicates a transformation in spending from acquiring more goods to enhancing quality of life and emotional well-being [35][50] Group 4: Channel Evolution - There is a growing preference for high-value, convenient shopping channels in county markets, with a decline in traditional retail and an increase in modern formats like discount stores [45][48] - The rise of interest-driven e-commerce and local life platforms reflects changing consumer habits, aligning more closely with trends seen in higher-tier cities [45][48] Group 5: Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous research on county-level consumer behavior to identify emerging trends and investment opportunities [10][12] - The evolving landscape of consumer expectations and spending habits in county markets will be critical for brands aiming to penetrate these areas effectively [11][12]