Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking industry, expecting improvements in the fundamental outlook for the next year [2][105]. Core Insights - The stability of asset quality in the banking sector is attributed to the gradual exposure and clearing of non-performing loans over the past 15 years, with different sectors experiencing issues at different times [1][12]. - Banks have actively adjusted their loan structures to mitigate risks, reducing exposure to sectors with rising non-performing loans [1][66]. - The impact of non-performing loans on profit statements has been minimized due to proactive provisioning strategies, including excess provisioning in previous years [1][69][70]. - Non-credit asset risks have also been largely cleared or are at minimal levels, contributing to overall stability in the banking sector [1][90]. Summary by Sections Asset Quality and Non-Performing Loans - The report highlights that the overall non-performing loan generation rate for listed banks has stabilized around 0.7%, which is still considered high compared to historical peaks [2][12]. - Different banks exhibit varying levels of asset quality pressure and provisioning capabilities, with larger banks and some city commercial banks performing better [2][93]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on banks with strong asset quality and low provisioning pressure, such as Chengdu Bank, Changsha Bank, Zhangjiagang Bank, and Ruifeng Bank [2][105]. - It also recommends high-quality cyclical stocks like Ningbo Bank and Changshu Bank, which are expected to show early signs of recovery [2][105]. Loan Sector Analysis - The manufacturing and retail sectors have seen a clearing of non-performing loans, with their rates returning to levels seen in 2010 [26][30]. - The real estate sector's non-performing loan rate peaked in 2023 but has since shown signs of recovery, although it remains elevated [35][37]. - Retail loan risks are currently rising, with various types of personal loans experiencing increased non-performing rates [50][53]. Provisioning and Profit Stability - Banks have historically maintained excess provisions, which can be utilized to smooth profits during periods of rising non-performing loans [69][75]. - The current provisioning levels are deemed adequate to support stable profits for the next few years, with estimates suggesting that existing provisions could release at least 800 billion yuan in net profit [81][90].

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月29日 资产质量十五年 优于大市 上市银行不良出清与拨备压力观察 不过我们也需要注意，目前上市银行整体的不良生成率边际稳定，但纵 向比较来看，近几年上市银行整体不良生成率在 0.7%左右，仍处于较高 水平，只是比 2015 年的峰值有所回落，并非完全没有资产质量压力。 微观上，不同银行之间资产质量压力、拨备计提压力、存量拨备的利润 维持能力、存量拨备重组情况等表现分化。综合来看，大行及一些城商行 在资产质量和拨备压力方面表现相对更好。 投资建议：我们认为今年是此轮业绩下行周期的尾声，预计明年行业基 本面将有所改善，维持行业"优于大市"评级。个股方面建议关注资产 质量和拨备压力表现较好且估值较低的成都银行、长沙银行、张家港行、 瑞丰银行等。此外，四季度我们从策略角度仍然继续推荐基本面有望率 先走出拐点的优质顺周期个股，包括宁波银行、常熟银行。 风险提示：宏观经济超预期下行可能从多方面影响银行业。 重点公司盈利预测及投资评级 | 公司 | 公司 | 投资 | 收盘价 | 总市值 | EPS | | PE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the proactive measures taken by Minsheng Bank's Lhasa branch to address the financing challenges faced by small and micro enterprises, particularly in the agricultural sector [1][2] - It emphasizes the importance of tailored financial solutions and the bank's commitment to supporting local businesses through innovative service models [2] Group 1: Financing Mechanism - Minsheng Bank's Lhasa branch is implementing a small and micro enterprise financing coordination mechanism to alleviate financing difficulties for local businesses [1] - The bank has initiated a "thousand enterprises, ten thousand households" outreach program to better understand the operational conditions and financing needs of enterprises [1] Group 2: Case Study - A leading agricultural machinery company in Tibet, holding a 60% market share and employing over 100 people, has expressed a financing need of over 10 million yuan due to business expansion and working capital turnover [1][2] - The bank formed a joint agile team to conduct on-site research and develop a customized "micro-loan + comprehensive financial" solution for the company, ensuring priority processing for agricultural loans [2] Group 3: Commitment to Local Economy - The actions taken by Minsheng Bank's Lhasa branch reflect its mission to serve the public and enhance the livelihood of the community [2] - The bank aims to deepen financing models through the small and micro enterprise financing coordination mechanism, contributing to the high-quality development of the regional economy [2]

Core Viewpoint - Ant Group and Zhejiang Zheshang Bank have signed a strategic cooperation agreement to deepen collaboration in various financial sectors, leveraging AI to explore new growth opportunities in the financial industry [1] Group 1: Areas of Cooperation - The partnership will focus on financial technology, basic technology, corporate finance, retail finance, financial markets, and inclusive finance [1] - Both companies aim to enhance cooperation in AI agent construction and application, large model defense, distributed microservice systems, and databases [1] Group 2: Business Collaboration - The collaboration will also extend to wealth management, small and micro loans, and supply chain finance [1] - The goal is to jointly build a digital financial ecosystem that creates more value for society [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company's profit growth has turned positive, with a notable improvement in asset quality, as indicated by a decrease in the new non-performing loan generation rate to a near historical low [6][11]. - The wealth management income has turned positive this year after several years of adjustments, contributing to the overall revenue recovery [11]. - The company has announced its first interim dividend this year, with a payout ratio of 35%, consistent with the previous year [11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the company's revenue growth was -1.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 0.3%. The net interest income increased by 1.6%, but non-interest income decreased by 6.7% [2][6]. - The asset quality shows positive signals, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.93% at the end of the first half, down 2 basis points from the beginning of the year, and a provision coverage ratio of 411% [2][6]. Loan and Deposit Growth - Total assets increased by 4.2% from the beginning of the year, with loans growing by 3.3%. Retail loans saw a slight increase of 0.9%, while corporate loans rose by 7.9% [11]. - Deposits grew by 3.6%, with demand deposits accounting for 51.0% of total deposits at the end of the first half [11]. Interest Margin and Cost - The net interest margin was 1.88%, a decrease of 10 basis points compared to the previous year. The loan yield dropped to 3.45%, reflecting a shift in loan structure towards lower-yielding corporate and consumer loans [11]. - The deposit cost rate decreased to 1.26%, indicating a strong customer retention and pricing capability [11]. Asset Quality Improvement - The new non-performing loan generation rate for the first half was 0.98%, down 2 basis points from the first quarter, reflecting improvements in both corporate and retail segments [11]. - The retail non-performing loan generation rate decreased to 1.70%, and the credit card non-performing loan generation rate fell to 4.22% [11]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to benefit from a restructuring of institutional allocation ratios, with a current A/H share price-to-book ratio of 0.98x/1.00x and a dividend yield of 4.7%/4.6% [11].

Core Insights - The A-share listed banks are entering a concentrated disclosure period for the 2025 semi-annual reports, with mixed performance observed among city commercial banks [1][2] - Jiangsu Bank, Chengdu Bank, and Chongqing Bank reported steady growth, while Guiyang Bank experienced a decline in performance [1][2] Performance Analysis - Jiangsu Bank achieved an operating income of 44.864 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.78%, and a net profit of 20.238 billion yuan, up 8.05%. The non-performing loan ratio was 0.84%, down 0.05 percentage points from the end of last year [1] - Chengdu Bank reported an operating income of 12.27 billion yuan, a 5.91% increase, and a net profit of 6.617 billion yuan, up 7.29%, with a low non-performing loan ratio of 0.66% [1] - Chongqing Bank's operating income was 7.659 billion yuan, a 7% increase, with a net profit of 3.190 billion yuan, up 5.39%, and a non-performing loan ratio of 1.17%, down 0.08 percentage points [1] Stock Performance - The stock performance in the first half of the year showed significant differences: Jiangsu Bank's stock rose by 25.54%, Chongqing Bank by 21.98%, Chengdu Bank by 17.48%, and Guiyang Bank by 9.16% [2] Business Growth Drivers - Corporate business has been a key driver for the growth in net interest income for Jiangsu Bank, Chengdu Bank, and Chongqing Bank [2] - For Chongqing Bank, the average balance of corporate loans increased by 82.149 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to an increase in interest income of 1.393 billion yuan [2] - Chengdu Bank also saw a 17.87% year-on-year increase in average corporate loans, leading to a 10.12% rise in interest income [2] Interest Income Contributions - Jiangsu Bank's net interest income reached 32.939 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.10%, driven by debt instrument investments and corporate loans [3] - Interest income from debt instrument investments increased by 3.33 billion yuan, while interest income from corporate loans rose by 1 billion yuan [3] Credit Structure Optimization - As of June 30, Chongqing Bank's small and micro enterprise loan balance was 182.248 billion yuan, an increase of 33.119 billion yuan from the end of last year [3] - Jiangsu Bank's small micro loan balance exceeded 750 billion yuan, with significant growth in inclusive small micro loans and technology loans [3] Guiyang Bank's Performance - Guiyang Bank faced challenges, with an operating income of 6.501 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.22%, and a net profit of 2.474 billion yuan, down 7.2% [2] - The bank issued 17.577 billion yuan in new inclusive small micro loans, with a weighted average interest rate of 4.20%, down 43 basis points year-on-year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company has reported a stable growth in its financial performance for the first half of 2025, with a focus on sustainable development and serving the rural economy, while maintaining a strong asset quality and competitive positioning in the banking sector [6][12][13]. Company Overview - The company aims for high-quality and sustainable development, focusing on serving the "three rural issues and two small enterprises" market positioning, and has implemented a diversified financial service system [5]. - The company has established a clear strategic development pattern, with a strong presence in Jiangsu and a network of 109 service outlets in Changshu, creating a "5-minute" financial service circle [7][8]. Industry Situation - The banking industry is facing a complex operating environment with external uncertainties impacting investment decisions and trade [6]. - Despite challenges, the domestic economy is showing stable growth, and banks are focusing on serving the real economy and preventing financial risks [6]. Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating income of 6.062 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.10%, and a net profit of 1.969 billion yuan, up 13.51% year-on-year [12]. - Total assets reached 401.227 billion yuan, an increase of 9.45% from the beginning of the year, with total deposits of 310.777 billion yuan and total loans of 251.471 billion yuan [13]. Asset Quality - The company's non-performing loan ratio stood at 0.76%, a slight decrease from the beginning of the year, with a provision coverage ratio of 489.53% [13]. - The village and town banks under the company reported a non-performing loan ratio of 1.05%, remaining stable compared to the beginning of the year [13]. Profit Distribution - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.15 yuan per share, totaling approximately 497 million yuan, which accounts for 25.27% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [21][23].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the complexity of understanding bank profitability, highlighting that traditional metrics like interest margin, cost of expenses, and asset impairment losses do not provide a complete picture of a bank's true earning capacity [4][20][22]. Group 1: Understanding Bank Profitability - The profitability of banks cannot be solely determined by analyzing interest margins and impairment losses, as these metrics do not allow for effective peer comparison [4][22]. - For example, Bank A with a 2.5% interest margin and Bank B with a 2% interest margin can both achieve the same net profit of 1%, indicating that higher interest margins do not necessarily equate to better profitability [5][6][7]. - The article discusses the importance of understanding the underlying business model and risk management strategies of banks, particularly in the context of small and micro loans [14][18][19]. Group 2: Risk and Business Models - The article presents a case where high-interest loans can be associated with low risk, particularly in regions with strong micro-enterprise demand, suggesting that local knowledge can mitigate risks [11][13]. - It argues that small banks are better positioned to manage small and micro loans due to their flexibility and closer ties to local businesses [18][19]. - The discussion includes the notion that a bank's risk profile cannot be judged solely on its loan portfolio size or interest margins; rather, it requires a deeper analysis of the specific business practices and regional economic conditions [60][66]. Group 3: Financial Metrics and Valuation - The article introduces the concept of Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE) as critical metrics for evaluating bank performance, with ROA being influenced by interest margin, cost of expenses, and impairment losses [25][31][48]. - A comparison of two banks, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and Hangzhou Bank, reveals that despite ICBC having a larger asset base, Hangzhou Bank demonstrates a higher ROA and ROE due to its effective use of leverage [34][48][55]. - The article concludes that Hangzhou Bank's higher valuation should be reflected in its price-to-book (PB) ratio compared to ICBC, suggesting that current market valuations may not accurately represent the banks' underlying performance [76][78].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the commercial banking sector is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - A new round of deposit rate declines is creating multidimensional impacts on commercial banks' asset-liability management, forcing a transformation in their strategies [3] - On the liability side, the decrease in deposit costs alleviates interest payment pressures, but the low-interest environment intensifies deposit diversion risks, pushing banks to enhance wealth management capabilities [3] - On the asset side, banks face dual challenges of yield compression and structural adjustments, necessitating a shift towards higher-yield retail assets like consumer loans and small business loans [3] - The complexity of interest rate risk management is increasing, requiring banks to utilize derivatives for hedging and optimize duration matching through dynamic gap management [3] - The operational stratification among commercial banks is increasing, with large banks leveraging their national networks and low-cost funding to support large-scale lending, while smaller banks are constrained by regional operations and high deposit costs [3] - The era of multidimensional asset-liability management for commercial banks has arrived, necessitating a shift towards "lightweight" operations and the expansion of non-interest income sources [3] Summary by Sections 1. Framework Objectives: Matching Assets and Liabilities - The goal of asset-liability management is to balance risk and return, maximizing risk-adjusted returns while considering profitability, liquidity, and safety [7][8] 2. Constraint Tools: Optimization Under Multiple Conditions - Asset-liability management involves managing the asset-liability portfolio, liquidity, interest rate risk, and capital management [7][8] 3. System Application: Perception of Liquidity Tightness - Liquidity management indicators include LCR, NSFR, liquidity ratios, and the adequacy of high-quality liquid assets [109][110] 4. Differentiated Characteristics of Different Institutions - Different types of banks exhibit varying asset structures and investment strategies, with large banks focusing on government bonds and large corporate loans, while smaller banks may have a more diversified approach [30][34]

Group 1: Stock Performance and Shareholder Relations - The company's stock price is low due to various factors, including macroeconomic conditions and market sentiment. The major shareholder, Balong Group, now holds less than 5% of shares and is no longer a key stakeholder [2][3] - The company aims to enhance shareholder returns and improve stock performance through better management and communication of company value [2][3] Group 2: Financial Performance and Risk Management - In Q4 2024, the company reported impairment losses of 5.1 billion RMB, a significant increase year-on-year, attributed to growing loan volumes and proactive risk management [2][3] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was 1.79% at the end of 2024, slightly down from the beginning of the year, indicating stable asset quality [3][13] - The company plans to strengthen risk management and enhance its ability to absorb risks in 2025 [3][11] Group 3: Loan Growth and Market Position - The company's loan growth rate was approximately 5.5%, lower than the 10% growth seen in other regional banks, reflecting a focus on supporting small and agricultural enterprises [2][3] - The growth rate for inclusive small and micro-enterprise loans reached 11.25%, outperforming overall loan growth by 7.28 percentage points [2][3] Group 4: Dividend Policy and Profit Distribution - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.20 RMB per 10 shares for 2024, which is higher than the previous year, but aims to restore the cash dividend payout ratio to 30% in the future [2][3] Group 5: Green Finance and Sustainable Development - The green loan portfolio grew by 3.1 billion RMB, with a focus on supporting energy-saving and environmentally friendly projects [9][10] - The company is committed to enhancing its green finance strategy, including developing innovative green financial products and ensuring compliance with environmental standards [9][10] Group 6: Future Growth Strategies - The company plans to optimize its asset-liability structure and expand its intermediary business to enhance profitability [11][13] - Future innovations in agricultural loans will include the "Golden Ear" series of credit products and exploring rural property rights as collateral for financing [18]