收支平衡
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全球政府加杠杆的深层逻辑|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2026-02-27 09:55
Core Viewpoint - The contemporary benchmark for fiscal sustainability has shifted from traditional frameworks of "budget balance" or "r < g" to a more critical "risk balance" logic, driven by global restructuring, intensified geopolitical conflicts, and the climate crisis, as countries seek to ensure national competitiveness [2][3]. Group 1: Traditional Fiscal Benchmarks - The two core benchmarks of global fiscal policy have historically been the "budget balance" principle and the "r < g" standard, both of which have lost their explanatory power in the current complex global environment [5]. - The limitations of the "budget balance" benchmark are evident, as global leverage ratios rose from 209% to 245% between 2007 and 2017, with a debt increase of $83 trillion during a critical recovery period from the financial crisis [5]. - The "r < g" benchmark is also inadequate, as major economies like the U.S. and China are projected to have public debt-to-GDP ratios of 121% and 88% respectively by 2025, yet government leverage has not ceased [6]. Group 2: New Fiscal Paradigm - The core of the new global fiscal paradigm is achieving a "symmetrical balance between various public risks and fiscal risks," where fiscal leverage is not merely an economic stimulus tool but a means to hedge against more severe security, economic, and social risks [8]. - The emphasis on security risks is a primary driver of this shift, with countries like the U.S. and South Korea increasing fiscal spending to address supply chain and national defense concerns, exemplifying the logic of using fiscal risk to counter security risks [8]. - Economic risks have become more complex, necessitating a shift in fiscal leverage logic from "stimulating growth" to "stabilizing expectations and preventing systemic risks," as seen in the fiscal strategies of major economies [9]. Group 3: Social Risks and Fiscal Response - The diversification of social risks, including unemployment, social security gaps, and climate crises, requires fiscal leverage to play a broader hedging role, with the EU and Japan increasing spending to address these challenges [10]. - The principle of risk balance does not advocate for unlimited leverage but seeks "risk symmetry," where the increase in fiscal risk must match the reduction in public risks being hedged [10]. - Differentiated fiscal strategies among countries reflect the flexibility and scientific nature of the risk balance paradigm, with some economies reducing fiscal spending while others expand it based on their risk structures [10].
9月份起,建议至少在家备上3万元现金,这4个原因很现实
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 19:16
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing reliance on mobile payment tools in China while highlighting the importance of keeping cash on hand for emergencies and specific social situations [1][14]. Group 1: Reasons for Keeping Cash - Cash can help respond to emergencies, such as natural disasters or medical emergencies, where mobile payment may not be available due to power outages or network failures [5][6]. - Certain social occasions, like weddings or holidays, often require cash gifts to make a stronger impression compared to digital transfers [8][9]. - Using cash can prevent privacy leaks associated with mobile payments, as cash transactions do not leave a digital footprint [11]. - Cash payments can help control spending habits, as individuals may be more aware of their expenditures when using physical money rather than digital transactions [13][14]. Group 2: Future of Payment Methods - Despite the rise of mobile payments, cash is expected to remain relevant in daily life, indicating a long-term coexistence of both payment methods [14].
英特尔CFO:英特尔仍有望在2027年左右实现收支平衡
news flash· 2025-05-13 14:37
Core Viewpoint - Intel's CFO stated that the company is still on track to achieve break-even around 2027 [1] Financial Outlook - Intel aims to reach a break-even point by 2027, indicating a long-term recovery strategy [1]