Group 1 - The core idea of the podcast is to share investment strategies and insights from Ray Dalio, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment, emphasizing the importance of diversification and risk management [2][4][5] - Dalio highlights the performance of Bridgewater's China All Weather Fund, which has achieved an average return of around 16% over the past six years, demonstrating the effectiveness of a balanced asset allocation strategy [4][5] - The discussion includes the significance of maintaining a diversified portfolio to mitigate risks associated with market volatility and economic fluctuations [5][6][10] Group 2 - Dalio warns about the risks of relying solely on price appreciation for bond investments in a low-yield environment, suggesting that investors should be cautious when yields are low and focus on rebalancing their portfolios [7][8] - The importance of geographical diversification is emphasized, with Dalio advising investors to avoid market timing and instead maintain a balanced portfolio across different regions [9][10][11] - Dalio provides insights on the allocation of gold within an investment portfolio, suggesting that it should typically represent around 10-15% to effectively hedge against currency devaluation [16][17] Group 3 - The podcast discusses the structural decline of the US dollar due to excessive debt, emphasizing the relationship between debt and currency value [18][19] - Dalio compares Bitcoin to gold, viewing it as a complementary asset for diversification, while highlighting the unique advantages of gold as a stable store of value [20][21] - The limitations of stablecoins are addressed, with Dalio suggesting that they are not suitable for wealth storage compared to inflation-linked bonds, which provide better protection against inflation [22][23] Group 4 - Dalio shares personal insights on family wealth management, advocating for the importance of savings and teaching future generations about the value of money through tangible assets like gold coins [25][26] - The necessity of rebalancing investment portfolios is discussed, with Dalio stressing the importance of having a disciplined approach to maintain strategic asset allocation [28][30] - The use of automated investment systems to avoid emotional decision-making is recommended, highlighting the need for a well-defined investment plan [32]

"预防性"降息开启，靴子轻轻落地 国联期货研究所 宏观|专题报告 2025 年 9 月 18 日 从业资格证号：F3055965 投资咨询证书号：Z0001999 相关研究报告： 2025 年中期宏观经济展望： 秩序重构浪涌急，应变守机 稳驭舟 2025 年二季度宏观展望：多 空拉锯，全球高波动弱增长 格局深化 2025 年宏观经济展望：畅通 经济循环，走出低通胀 2024 年中期宏观经济展望： 虚云散尽见真章，厚积薄发 待春雷 2024 年宏观经济展望：行稳 方致远，温和渐进修复 宏观专题：透过金融数据探 寻资金运转逻辑与效率 目 录 3. 后续降息路径探讨 4. 市场影响 证监许可[2011]1773 号 1. 美联储议息会议概览 王娜 2. "预防性"降息开启，靴子轻轻落地 鲍威尔 8 月 22 日在 Jackson Hole 全球央行峰会上鸽派发言后，全球大类资产的 降息交易正式启动，9月17日美联储降息靴子落地，联邦基金利率的目标区间从4.25% 至 4.5%降至 4.00%至 4.25%，降幅 25 个基点。这是美联储 2025 年开年以来九个月内 首次决定降息。美联储自去年 9 月到 12 月连 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that cash is a poor long-term investment, and investors should diversify their portfolios beyond real estate and cash deposits [2][5] - A balanced and diversified investment portfolio can mitigate significant market volatility, as different asset classes perform differently under varying market conditions [4][6] - Investors should avoid trying to time the market, as it is essentially a zero-sum game, and instead focus on maintaining a well-diversified portfolio [4][8] Group 2 - The discussion highlights the importance of understanding that asset returns consist of price changes and interest, and caution is advised when returns are primarily driven by price appreciation rather than interest [6][7] - It is suggested that investors should not solely focus on individual components of their portfolio but rather consider how these components work together to create a well-diversified investment strategy [4][8] - The concept of risk balancing is introduced, where combining non-correlated assets can significantly reduce overall portfolio risk while maintaining expected returns [9][10] Group 3 - The importance of rebalancing investment portfolios is emphasized, as it helps to maintain strategic asset allocation and avoid emotional decision-making [24][26] - The article discusses the role of gold as a non-yielding asset, suggesting it should be viewed as a form of currency that can effectively diversify risk [13][15] - The potential structural decline of the US dollar is addressed, linking it to the excessive growth of debt and the implications for monetary policy [16][18] Group 4 - The article mentions the limitations of stablecoins as a wealth storage tool, emphasizing their role in transactions rather than as an investment asset [17][19] - The discussion includes the importance of teaching financial literacy and the value of saving, particularly through the practice of gifting gold coins to younger generations [21][22] - The necessity of having a solid financial foundation before taking on higher investment risks is highlighted, advocating for a disciplined approach to investing [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio emphasizes the importance of diversified investment strategies for Chinese investors, particularly in the context of a volatile market environment and low interest rates [3][4]. Group 1: Investment Principles and Asset Allocation - Dalio advocates for a balanced and diversified investment portfolio, suggesting that investors should not attempt to time the market, as it is essentially a zero-sum game [8][12]. - A well-diversified portfolio can mitigate the risks associated with significant asset volatility, and it is advisable to hold a mix of assets including stocks, bonds, and gold [8][12]. - The current challenge for Chinese investors is the heavy concentration of funds in real estate and cash deposits, which does not constitute a good diversified investment strategy [8][12]. Group 2: Asset Class Perspectives - Dalio notes that different asset classes perform variably under different economic conditions, and thus, a diversified approach is essential to balance risk and return [8][12]. - He highlights that cash is a poor long-term investment, especially in the current low-interest-rate environment, and suggests that investors should reduce cash holdings in favor of a diversified asset mix [8][12]. - Gold is viewed as a crucial asset for risk diversification, and Dalio recommends that it should constitute about 10-15% of an optimized portfolio [18][19]. Group 3: Execution Discipline and Investment Mindset - Dalio stresses the importance of maintaining a disciplined investment approach, which includes regular rebalancing of the portfolio to ensure alignment with strategic asset allocation goals [23][24]. - He advises against emotional decision-making in investments and suggests that having a systematic investment plan can help avoid impulsive actions [24][25]. - The concept of "rebalancing" is crucial for managing investment portfolios, allowing investors to take profits from overperforming assets and reinvest in underperforming ones [23][24].

8月22日，据报道，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示，形势表明美国就业下行风险 上升；风险平衡的变化可能构成调整政策的理由。 ...

来源：热点快报 氛围比文字重要 金融市场近期进入了相对平静的状态，美元、黄金等市场的波动性明显降低。然而，这种平静背后，是 市场对美联储主席鲍威尔即将在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的演讲的高度期待。投资者们并不急于得到 具体的政策答案，而是在等待鲍威尔的态度和整体氛围。 市场真正关注的不是鲍威尔演讲中的每一个字眼，而是整个演讲的气场。去年，鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会 议上的开场白"利率要调整了"，瞬间点燃了市场的热情。金融市场特别注重"场面感"——鲍威尔的语 气、神态，甚至台下的反应都可能成为交易员做决策的依据。如果鲍威尔全程表现得阴沉，那么市场可 能会受到这种失望情绪的影响。因此，周五晚间观看直播画面，而不是仅仅依赖媒体报道的文字，对于 捕捉现场气氛至关重要。 "风险平衡"是关键词 如果鲍威尔在演讲中提到"风险平衡"这个词，市场可能会将其视为利好信号。美联储一直强调其双重使 命：既要控制通胀，又要保证就业。如果鲍威尔开始强调"风险平衡"，意味着他认为继续压低通胀已没 有必要，反而应该更多地考虑经济和就业情况。这往往是降息的前奏。因此，市场会密切关注鲍威尔是 否会在演讲中提及这一关键词，并据此做出相应的判断。 模糊的艺 ...

来源：华尔街情报圈 所以，现在答案已经出来了——鲍威尔现在非常为难，他不能太鸽（怕通胀死灰复燃），也不能太鹰（怕市场崩盘和经济下滑）。这次市场不是在等"答 案"，而是在等一场表演。鲍威尔的每一个眼神和停顿，都会成为交易员的开仓理由。 市场真正关注的不是"逐字逐句"，而是整体的气场。就像去年开场的那句"利率要调整了"，市场气氛瞬间点燃。金融市场其实特别吃"场面感"——鲍威尔 的语气、神态、甚至台下有没有掌声，都可能成为交易员做单的依据。如果全程"阴沉着脸"，那么市场可能会受这股失望情绪主导。现场的气氛不是从媒 体报道的文字中能够感受到的，周五晚间最好还是要看直播画面。 第二，"风险平衡"是关键词。 如果出现"风险平衡"这个词，可能会被市场视为"利好"。美联储一直讲"双重使命"：既要压住通胀，又要保证就业。如果鲍威尔开始强调"风险平衡"，意 思就是：现在再压通胀没必要了，反而该多考虑经济和就业。这往往是降息的前奏。 第三，模糊的艺术。 他不可能给"路线图"。美联储从来不愿意被市场"绑架"。如果鲍威尔说得太明确，市场立刻会押注更大规模的宽松，那反而会让他被动。所以他一定会留 模糊空间。模糊，是他唯一的安全出口。 这 ...

Group 1 - The core message from Powell's speech indicates a significant shift in market sentiment, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 63% to 45.7% following his comments [1][3] - Powell acknowledged a slowdown in economic growth, particularly in consumer spending and real estate, while asserting that the economy remains in a stable state [3] - His remarks on inflation suggest a complex stance, stating that the process of inflation decline is halfway complete, yet warning that tariffs could increase commodity prices, indicating a cautious approach to future rate cuts [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is now prioritizing "risk balance," meaning that if the economy continues to weaken, a rate cut is likely, but if inflation rises unexpectedly, they may reconsider [4] - Upcoming CPI and non-farm payroll data will be critical in determining the likelihood of a rate cut in September, with a target inflation rate of below 2.8% being a key indicator [4] - The market's reaction to Powell's speech reflects a broader uncertainty, emphasizing the importance of data as the true "referee" in the Fed's decision-making process [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, indicated that interest rates may be raised if the economic outlook is realized, highlighting the high level of uncertainty in both domestic and international economies [1] Group 1 - The current economic situation is at a critical juncture, necessitating preparedness for both upward and downward risks [1] - Policy adjustments are required to maximize the balance of risks in the economic landscape [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Logan, is prepared to respond if there are changes in the risk balance, although it may take a considerable amount of time to observe such changes [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is monitoring the risk balance closely and is ready to take action if necessary [1] - There is an indication that the current risk balance may not change in the near term, suggesting a prolonged period of stability [1]