8月22日，据报道，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示，形势表明美国就业下行风险 上升；风险平衡的变化可能构成调整政策的理由。 ...

来源：热点快报 氛围比文字重要 金融市场近期进入了相对平静的状态，美元、黄金等市场的波动性明显降低。然而，这种平静背后，是 市场对美联储主席鲍威尔即将在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的演讲的高度期待。投资者们并不急于得到 具体的政策答案，而是在等待鲍威尔的态度和整体氛围。 市场真正关注的不是鲍威尔演讲中的每一个字眼，而是整个演讲的气场。去年，鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会 议上的开场白"利率要调整了"，瞬间点燃了市场的热情。金融市场特别注重"场面感"——鲍威尔的语 气、神态，甚至台下的反应都可能成为交易员做决策的依据。如果鲍威尔全程表现得阴沉，那么市场可 能会受到这种失望情绪的影响。因此，周五晚间观看直播画面，而不是仅仅依赖媒体报道的文字，对于 捕捉现场气氛至关重要。 "风险平衡"是关键词 如果鲍威尔在演讲中提到"风险平衡"这个词，市场可能会将其视为利好信号。美联储一直强调其双重使 命：既要控制通胀，又要保证就业。如果鲍威尔开始强调"风险平衡"，意味着他认为继续压低通胀已没 有必要，反而应该更多地考虑经济和就业情况。这往往是降息的前奏。因此，市场会密切关注鲍威尔是 否会在演讲中提及这一关键词，并据此做出相应的判断。 模糊的艺 ...

各位老铁，今天帮主带你们直击美联储的火药味现场！昨天鲍威尔这老爷子一开口，美股三大指数直接"跳水"，道指跌了快300点，连华尔街的交易员都 坐不住了——9月降息的概率从63%暴跌到45.7%，这节奏简直比坐过山车还刺激！ 要说鲍威尔今天的表现，那可真是把"太极宗师"的精髓发挥得淋漓尽致。当被记者逼问"啥时候降息"时，老爷子直接甩出一句"我不会给具体答案"，活活 把问题踢回给了数据。更绝的是他那句"我们会基于全面数据分析和风险平衡评估做决策"，听得我都想给他配个二胡拉《太极张三丰》的BGM了。 不过抛开这些场面话，鲍威尔这次讲话确实藏着不少玄机。首先他承认经济增速放缓，消费者支出和房地产都在拖后腿，但又强调"经济处于稳固状态"， 这不是典型的"嘴上说不要，身体很诚实"嘛？最有意思的是他对通胀的态度：一方面说"通胀回落进程过半"，另一方面又提醒关税可能推高商品价格，这 简直就是在走钢丝啊！ 但市场显然不买账。话音刚落，美股就开始"用脚投票"，连2年期美债收益率都跳涨了7个基点。LPL的首席经济学家罗奇倒是看得明白："美联储已经做 好了行动准备，就等经济数据给个台阶下。"这话糙理不糙——9月降息的大门其实还留着条缝 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, indicated that interest rates may be raised if the economic outlook is realized, highlighting the high level of uncertainty in both domestic and international economies [1] Group 1 - The current economic situation is at a critical juncture, necessitating preparedness for both upward and downward risks [1] - Policy adjustments are required to maximize the balance of risks in the economic landscape [1]

美联储洛根：如果风险平衡发生变化，美联储已做好充分准备予以应对。可能还需要相当长的时间才能 看到风险平衡的变化。 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Drivers - The article discusses three macroeconomic drivers impacting the market: geopolitical tensions, domestic support policies, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate stance [2][5][7] - Geopolitical tensions are heightened due to conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine, and India-Pakistan, which may affect global oil supply [3] - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day starting June, which could influence oil prices amidst geopolitical uncertainties [3] Group 2: Domestic Financial Policies - A comprehensive financial policy package was introduced in China, focusing on "total easing + structural optimization + expectation management" to support economic development [5] - The policy includes a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, and targeted support for small and medium enterprises [5] - Additional measures include lowering housing loan rates and increasing funding for technology innovation and consumer services [5] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the third consecutive pause in rate cuts, while expressing concerns over economic uncertainties [7] - The Fed's cautious stance reflects a shift towards balancing risks, with market expectations for rate cuts being pushed to July [7] - Current probabilities indicate an 80.2% chance of maintaining rates in June and a 59.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut in July [7] Group 4: Market Trading Logic - Oil prices are under pressure from OPEC+ production increases and economic uncertainties, yet geopolitical disturbances support bullish sentiment in the oil market [9] - The article suggests monitoring the inflow of short positions into fundamentally weak commodities following the implementation of supportive policies [9]