作为"十五五"规划开局之年，2026 年经济实现"开门红"，迈好"十五五"时期发展第一步，意义重大，事关长远。 2026 年政策将靠前发力，以投资端为抓手推动经济实现"开门红"，养老、托育、医疗等民生类投资、消费基础设施 建设和城市更新是基建投资的重点方向。从实施主体看，中央和国央企主导的基建投资将发挥积极作用。近期政策的 另一个积极之处是"重视解决地方财政困难"。当前地方财政已从"保民生、保工资、保运转"的"三保"演变为需要 兼顾"还本付息与保清欠"的"五保"。但是对于财政自给能力不足的地区而言，"三保"靠转移支付、"发展"靠举债 的情况进一步凸显，财政可持续性面临更大挑战。在此背景下，推动财政可持续已成为地方治理的重中之重，核心在 于树立"因地制宜"的正确政绩观。因地制宜的核心是"实事求是"，而实事求是的关键在于完善差异化的考核评价体 系。面对 2026 年的经济部署，各地省委在表态坚决扛起责任的同时，更加强调"因地制宜、科学合理"地设定发展 目标。这意味着在即将到来的"十五五"规划衔接期，地方政府将从"速度竞争"转向"能力与负担平衡"的良性轨 道。中央财政的"进"聚焦在提振消费和投资回稳，地方财政的"稳 ...

（原标题：沙迦批准2026年财政预算） 阿通社12月29日消息，沙迦政府批准2026年财政预算，总支出445亿迪拉姆，同比增长3%。预算将 重点投向基础设施、经济发展和社会事业，助力财政可持续、数字化转型和降低营商成本。预计总收入 同比增长26%，有助于推动文化、旅游及长期经济增长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government aims to manage government bonds effectively through close communication with the market, as stated by Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki [1] Group 1: Government Bond Management - The Japanese government will focus on closely monitoring market trends to manage government bond yields, which are influenced by various factors, including those outside Japan [1] - Minister Suzuki emphasized the importance of communication with the market to ensure proper management of government bonds [1] Group 2: Fiscal Sustainability - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has assessed Japan's latest economic stimulus plan and indicated that Japan's fiscal situation is sustainable [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy on free preschool education in China aims to balance educational equity and fiscal sustainability, starting from the 2025 autumn semester, by eliminating care and education fees for public kindergartens for the last year of preschool [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation - The policy will focus on reducing the financial burden on families by eliminating care fees while retaining flexible expenses like meal and transportation fees [2] - A three-tiered financial responsibility system will be established, with central, provincial, and local governments sharing the fiscal burden, particularly supporting underdeveloped regions [2] - The implementation will be gradual, starting with one year of free education in 2025, with plans to expand to two and then three years based on readiness [2] Group 2: Inclusivity and Equity - The policy emphasizes high-quality inclusivity rather than a one-size-fits-all approach, ensuring that support is tailored to regional differences and vulnerable groups [3] - A dynamic adjustment mechanism for subsidies linked to regional financial capabilities will help address disparities in educational access [3] - Special provisions will be made for economically disadvantaged children, orphans, and disabled children, ensuring comprehensive support [3] Group 3: Quality Assurance - The policy aims to ensure that cost reductions do not compromise educational quality by improving teacher salaries and stabilizing the workforce [4] - A robust regulatory framework will be established to oversee the quality of preschool education, with clear responsibilities assigned to local governments [4] - The development of a national preschool education management information system will enhance data management and enable precise governance, ensuring funds are allocated effectively [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The impact of the restoration of VAT on bond interest income on bank profits is limited, with a focus on changes in asset allocation [2][19] - The external environment is increasingly uncertain, and a continuation of loose monetary policy is expected, leading to a long-term downward trend in overall expected returns [29] - The expected improvement in the banking sector's fundamentals in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025 is primarily due to alleviated pressure on other non-interest income growth [29] Summary by Sections Tax Rate Changes - The restoration of VAT on interest income from government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will take effect from August 8, 2025, with a VAT rate of 6% for self-operated institutions [7][8] - Existing bonds issued before August 8, 2025, will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity [8][9] Impact on Banking Sector - The restoration of VAT is expected to lead to a marginal decline in the adjusted yields of affected bonds by approximately 8-13 basis points [15][17] - The overall negative impact on commercial banks' net profits is estimated at about 3.6% from a stock perspective and only 0.15% from a new bond perspective [19][20] - State-owned banks are expected to be more adversely affected compared to rural commercial banks [19][23] Investment Recommendations - Focus on two main investment themes: 1. High-dividend stocks based on the reduction of insurance preset interest rates, with recommendations including China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and China Merchants Bank [30] 2. Well-established small and medium-sized banks, with recommendations including Industrial Bank, CITIC Bank, Nanjing Bank (Buy), Jiangsu Bank (Buy), and Hangzhou Bank (Buy) [30]

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is currently facing multiple challenges, including slowing growth, financial market instability, and limitations of traditional economic policies. The role of money in the economy is being re-evaluated, emphasizing its importance as a tool for national economic policy [1]. Group 1: Books Overview - "The Nature of Money: New Theories of Prosperity, Crisis, and Capital" explores the critical role of money in economic prosperity and crises, constructing a comprehensive theoretical framework that reveals the complex relationship between money, economic growth, and financial stability [4][5]. - "Long-Term Crisis: Reshaping the Global Economy" argues for global solutions to global problems, emphasizing the need for enhanced and inclusive technological progress, new macroeconomic theories, and reforms in the global governance system to create a fairer international order [8][9]. - "The Mother of Money and the Anchor of Risk: Decoding the New Logic of Modern Fiscal-Financial Relations" highlights the importance of the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, asserting that understanding their intrinsic connection is essential for sustainable development [13][14]. Group 2: Key Insights from Books - Sufficient money supply is crucial for a country to respond to financial crises and ensure national security, as demonstrated by the U.S. during various crises, where increased money supply significantly bolstered economic strength [6]. - The understanding of fiscal sustainability has evolved, recognizing the long-term rationality of government debt, especially in low-interest-rate environments, where the focus shifts from repayment to interest payments [14][15]. - Modern monetary theory posits that fiscal sustainability primarily considers real economic resource constraints, with inflation being a direct limiting factor, thus redefining the functions of fiscal deficits and debt beyond traditional fiscal attributes [15][16].