美元兑日元在7月震荡低点以来反弹行情的50%斐波那契回撤位下方展现出日内韧性，随后的回升对空 头而言需保持警惕。与此同时，日线图上呈中性的震荡指标表明，任何进一步的反弹都更可能在147.75 区域（即38.2%斐波那契回撤位）遭遇直接阻力，紧随其后的是148.00整数关口。若突破该关口，将暗 示现货价格已形成短期底部，并使市场偏向转向多头。 尽管美联储鸽派立场预期令美元承压，但日本进口商的持续买盘为汇率提供了有力支撑，限制了日元进 一步走强的空间。市场分析指出，在日本央行维持现行政策不变，而美联储转向鸽派的背景下，东京交 易员预计美元/日元将在145.65（100日均线）至149.43（200日均线）之间波动。收益率差因素也制约着 汇率走势，目前美日两年期国债利差约294个基点，10年期利差约275个基点，较前期有所收窄。随着盂 兰盆节假期临近，市场流动性可能进一步下降。但分析师认为，只要日本进口商的防御性买盘持续，美 元/日元短期内跌破146关口的可能性较低。投资者正密切关注本周美联储官员讲话及美国经济数据，以 寻找新的交易线索。 周一（8月11日）亚盘早盘，美元兑日元下跌，目前交投于147附近，截止北京时 ...

Core Insights - Bloomberg is the first global index provider to include Chinese bonds in mainstream global indices, offering a unique perspective on the Chinese bond market [1] - The Bloomberg China Aggregate Index recorded a return of 0.47% in June, with a year-to-date return of 0.87% [3][5] - The 30-day volatility of the index has shown a downward trend during this period [3] Index Performance - The China Treasury and Policy Banks Index achieved a return of 0.48% in June, with a year-to-date return of 0.76% [5] - The performance of various indices is as follows: - China Aggregate Index: -0.01% (1D), 0.47% (MTD), 0.87% (YTD) [5] - China Treasuries: -0.04% (1D), 0.60% (MTD), 0.91% (YTD) [5] - China Corporate: 0.03% (1D), 0.28% (MTD), 1.04% (YTD) [5] - 10+ Year Maturity: -0.13% (1D), 1.30% (MTD), 2.23% (YTD) [5] Market Outlook - The yield spread between US and Chinese 10-year government bonds has widened due to market concerns over US debt credibility, although it has narrowed since the trade "truce" in April [11] - The upcoming third-quarter US-China trade negotiations may shift market focus back to macroeconomic drivers, potentially affecting capital inflows into Chinese government bonds [11] - The return rate for high-rated dollar bonds in Asian emerging markets is approximately 3% year-to-date, driven mainly by benchmark yields [11]

Domestic News - The National Financial Regulatory Administration and the Central Bank jointly released the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of Inclusive Finance in the Banking and Insurance Industries," aiming to establish a high-quality comprehensive inclusive financial system within five years [1] - The State Council issued the "Implementation Plan for Further Improving the Credit Repair System," which proposes a unified credit information disclosure platform and clarifies the channels for credit repair applications [1] - Xiaomi officially launched its first SUV, the Xiaomi YU7, with prices starting at 253,500 yuan, Pro version at 279,900 yuan, and Max version at 329,900 yuan; also released its first AI glasses starting at 1,999 yuan [1] - The 2025 basic medical insurance catalog and commercial insurance innovative drug catalog adjustment application guidelines have been released, marking the first inclusion of commercial insurance innovative drugs [1] - The new generation of domestically developed general-purpose processor, Longxin 3C6000, has been released [1] International News - Trade negotiations between India and the United States have reached a stalemate, according to Indian officials [2] - The European Union believes that the U.S. attack occurred after Iran transferred enriched uranium [2] - The spread between the U.S. 5-year and 30-year Treasury yields has exceeded 101 basis points, marking the steepest since 2021 [2] - The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly widened in May, with exports experiencing the largest decline since the pandemic; first-quarter GDP has been revised down [2] - Iran has officially enacted a law to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency [2] - Federal Reserve officials indicated that with inflation easing, interest rate hikes are no longer a primary topic; potential neutral rate estimates may gradually rise over time [2]

Core Viewpoint - The spread between the 5-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields has exceeded 101 basis points, marking the steepest difference since 2021 [1] Group 1 - The current yield curve indicates a significant divergence between short-term and long-term interest rates, which may reflect market expectations regarding economic growth and inflation [1] - The steepening of the yield curve could impact various sectors, particularly those sensitive to interest rates, such as real estate and financial services [1] - Investors may need to reassess their strategies in light of the changing yield dynamics, as this could influence borrowing costs and investment returns [1]