澳元兑美元向上试探云顶（0.6512）的走势多次被日图kijun-sen（基准线，0.6522）压制，这导致价格 下探云底（0.6474，同时也是0.6419至0.6568上涨波段的斐波那契61.8%回撤位），截至目前该位置仍抑 制着下行势头。只要价格维持在云层区间内，预计不会出现明确的方向信号，但日图上不断增强的正面 动能、即将从超卖区域走出的随机指标，以及趋于收敛的日图tenkan-sen（转换线）与kijun-sen（基准 线）试图形成金叉，都指向略微偏向多头的排列。多头情景为突破云顶和基准线，这将为冲击0.6568 （8月14日高点）打开空间，并可能进一步触及2025年高点（7月24日创下的0.6625）。相反，若持续跌 破云底，将下探0.6450（100日均线）和0.6419（8月1日低点）等支撑位。 周二（8月26日）亚市早盘，澳元兑美元下跌，目前交投于0.64附近，截止北京时间11:20分，澳元/美元 报价0.6474，下跌0.06%，上一交易日澳元/美元收盘报0.6478。市场预期澳大利亚央行可能在11月开启 宽松周期，并可能采取高达50个基点的降息，反映出对本国经济增长动能放缓的持续担忧。 ...

美元兑日元在7月震荡低点以来反弹行情的50%斐波那契回撤位下方展现出日内韧性，随后的回升对空 头而言需保持警惕。与此同时，日线图上呈中性的震荡指标表明，任何进一步的反弹都更可能在147.75 区域（即38.2%斐波那契回撤位）遭遇直接阻力，紧随其后的是148.00整数关口。若突破该关口，将暗 示现货价格已形成短期底部，并使市场偏向转向多头。 尽管美联储鸽派立场预期令美元承压，但日本进口商的持续买盘为汇率提供了有力支撑，限制了日元进 一步走强的空间。市场分析指出，在日本央行维持现行政策不变，而美联储转向鸽派的背景下，东京交 易员预计美元/日元将在145.65（100日均线）至149.43（200日均线）之间波动。收益率差因素也制约着 汇率走势，目前美日两年期国债利差约294个基点，10年期利差约275个基点，较前期有所收窄。随着盂 兰盆节假期临近，市场流动性可能进一步下降。但分析师认为，只要日本进口商的防御性买盘持续，美 元/日元短期内跌破146关口的可能性较低。投资者正密切关注本周美联储官员讲话及美国经济数据，以 寻找新的交易线索。 周一（8月11日）亚盘早盘，美元兑日元下跌，目前交投于147附近，截止北京时 ...

4小时图从上轨处3375承压摔回下轨，昨日失守中轨跌至下轨小有支撑，4小时图还是迂回拉锯的震荡行 情，持续性不强，而是反反复复，美元的短线上升，压制了黄金进一步的上扬动能。但持续结构上还是 宽幅震荡，关键的支撑阻力点都未完全破位。 现货黄金跌向6月份跌势(3452.51-3247.83美元/盎司)的38.2%斐波那契回撤位，此前金价连续第二天在 61.8%回撤位3374.56美元/盎司附近遇到卖家打压。 周三（7月16日）亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡上行，目前交投于3330美元/盎司附近，周二黄金价格下跌勉 强守住55日均线3222上方，因美国CPI6月份的增幅为1月份以来最大，帮助美元指数创下近三周新高， 美债收益率升至6周高位，打压金价走势。 美国6月消费者物价指数(CPI)数据显示，6月CPI环比上涨0.3%，为1月以来最大涨幅，符合市场预期。 核心CPI(剔除食品和能源)环比上升0.2%，年化通胀率从5月的2.8%升至2.9%。尽管通胀数据温和上升， 但并未显著超出预期，市场对美联储降息的预期因此略有调整。 根据伦敦证券交易所集团(LSEG)的估计，联邦基金利率期货反映市场预计年底前降息约44个基点，相 当 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have been on the rise for three consecutive days, with expectations for a weekly gain, driven by renewed trade war concerns following President Trump's announcement of new tariffs [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices are experiencing upward momentum, with traders closely monitoring trade developments amid a quiet U.S. economic calendar [2]. - Safe-haven investments have resurfaced in the Asian trading session due to President Trump's tariff statements, leading to a cautious market sentiment [3]. - Trump's threats to impose a 35% tariff on goods imported from Canada, effective August 1, have dampened optimism regarding trade negotiations between Washington and Europe [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The instability of Trump's trade policies has weakened investor confidence, reigniting demand for both the U.S. dollar and gold as safe-haven assets [5]. - Despite the dollar's rebound, gold buyers remain undeterred, with anxiety surrounding the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which may provide insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices are rebounding from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $3,297, reclaiming the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3,325 [9]. - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surpassed the midline, currently near 50.50, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment towards precious metals [10]. - A daily close above the 50-day SMA at $3,323 is necessary for buyers to challenge the 21-day SMA at $3,344, with potential resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $3,377 [11].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are rebounding, driven by concerns over trade tensions and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, following recent tariff announcements by President Trump [1][2][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have rebounded from a weekly low of $3283, supported by the weakening U.S. dollar and declining Treasury yields [3][5]. - The U.S. Treasury yields have decreased due to renewed economic growth concerns and strong demand for $39 billion in 10-year bonds [6]. - President Trump announced new tariffs on various goods, including a 20% tariff on products from the Philippines and 50% on copper imports, effective August 1 [6][7]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices successfully recovered the key 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $3297, despite briefly testing below this level [12]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently near 48.50, indicating a lack of bullish confidence [12]. - A sustained breakthrough above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance at $3323 is necessary for a meaningful rebound towards the 21-day SMA at $3346 [13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The focus is on Trump's tariff negotiations, upcoming U.S. economic data releases, and speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers for new trading signals for gold prices [9]. - Continued weakness in the dollar and low Treasury yields may provide ongoing support for non-yielding gold prices [9]. - If gold prices are rejected at the 50-day SMA, increased selling pressure could lead to a test of the 38.2% Fibonacci support level at $3297 [14].

Economic Data and Events - Investors should closely monitor key economic data and events this week, including speeches from Federal Reserve officials, ISM manufacturing data, ADP employment report, and non-farm payroll data, as these will provide insights into the Fed's monetary policy path and influence gold prices [1] Gold Market Analysis - The international gold market experienced a downward trend last week due to a rapid decline in risk aversion, breaking below the critical level of 3300, resulting in a small bearish candle [1] - The weekly chart indicates that gold has fallen below the MA10 support, with the MACD indicator forming a death cross at high levels, suggesting potential further decline towards the MA20 [1] - The daily chart shows that bullish momentum has halted, with the moving averages in a tight range, and although the MACD has formed a death cross, it is near the zero line, indicating limited downside potential before a breakout [1] - Short-term trading strategy for gold suggests focusing on buying on dips around 3290, with a stop loss at 3282 and a target of 3320-3340 [1] Silver Market Analysis - The daily chart for silver shows a small candlestick with a notably low wick, resembling a potential doji pattern, indicating market indecision between buyers and sellers [3] - The support level at 35.12, corresponding to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from April to June, provides a solid technical base, while resistance above may limit short-term gains [3] - Domestic silver futures are trading above 8765, with a slight increase of 0.09%, indicating a bullish short-term outlook [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rebound in spot gold prices after a period of decline, raising questions about the potential for further upward movement in the market [1] Group 1 - Spot gold has shown signs of recovery after a decline, indicating a potential for upward movement [1] - The strongest support level for the 15-minute timeframe is identified at 3308, which coincides with Fibonacci retracement levels, pivot points, and moving averages [1]

Group 1 - The international gold price experienced fluctuations, opening at $3285.91 per ounce, reaching a high of $3294.46, a low of $3245.29, and closing at $3268.49, reflecting a decline of 0.56% [1] Group 2 - The Dutch International Group analyst Karsten Brzeski reported a worsening labor market in Germany, with an increase of 34,000 unemployed in May, maintaining an unemployment rate of 6.3%. The number of unemployed has risen from approximately 2.2 million in May 2022 to nearly 3 million [3] - The analyst noted that the growth in employment is attributed to immigration, but this is insufficient to counteract weak private consumption, as many new jobs are part-time and low-paying. However, there are initial signs of labor market stabilization, with improved hiring plans in both industrial and service sectors [3] - Analysts from BNP Paribas indicated that if the money market excludes expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, the yield on two-year U.S. Treasury bonds is expected to rise in the coming months, with projections of 4.10% in Q3 and a decline to 4.00% in Q4 [3] Group 3 - Technically, gold prices have broken below the short-term upward trend line and the 200-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, indicating a bearish short-term trend. A drop below the key support level of $3245 could lead to further declines towards $3215, $3200, and $3180 [4] - The daily chart shows that gold has closed lower for four consecutive days, effectively breaking below the lower boundary of the short-term upward channel and operating below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, indicating weakened short-term momentum [4] - The MACD indicator shows a bearish crossover, with increasing green bars confirming the bearish signal. The $3245 level is a previous support zone, and if breached, it may test the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3215, potentially approaching the psychological level of $3200 [4]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a slight increase, supported by a weaker dollar and poor U.S. economic data, alongside safe-haven buying due to President Putin's absence from peace talks [1][2] - Spot gold rose by 1.18% to $3215.87 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures increased by 0.91% to $3217.4 per ounce [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.17%, making gold cheaper for overseas holders [2] Group 2 - U.S. April PPI year-on-year recorded a decline to 2.4%, marking the third consecutive month of decrease and the lowest since September of the previous year [2] - April PPI month-on-month recorded a drop of 0.5%, the lowest since April 2020, significantly below the market expectation of 0.2% [2] - Analysts suggest that the recent data creates more room for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with increasing market expectations for looser monetary policy [2] Group 3 - Analysts noted that despite a temporary 90-day tariff agreement between China and the U.S., investors remain cautious due to ongoing global trade tensions [2] - The absence of President Putin from peace negotiations has lowered expectations for progress on a peace agreement, contributing to the support for gold prices [2][3] - Gold's recent weakness has been linked to a shift in risk appetite, but the market's reaction to geopolitical events suggests a complex relationship between gold and equity markets [3]

美元兑加元汇率目前在去年11月6日以来的1.3810支撑区域附近徘徊，且位于从2021年5月低点画出的上 升趋势线附近，因此很有可能出现反弹。不过，要实现有意义的回升，多头需要将价格推升突破1.3950 的宽幅中性区间，并突破20日指数移动平均线（EMA）。200日和50日指数移动平均线也可能分别在 1.4055和1.4120附近构成阻力。若成功突破，有望推动买盘兴趣指向1.4270阻力一线；若涨势进一步扩 大，焦点可能会转向1.4400至1.4470这一关键阻力区域。 在看跌情形下，若美元对加元汇率回落至1.3790附近的支撑趋势线下方，去年9月至今年2月涨势的 78.2%斐波那契回撤位1.3720可能会提供暂时支撑。若跌破该水平，抛售可能会加速，目标指向1.3620 支撑区域，这一区域是去年9月形成的双底形态的颈线位。若跌破这一水平，可能会引发更强的抛售压 力。 简而言之，美元兑加元已来到了出现看涨反转的理想区域。不过，只有涨势突破指数移动平均线并超过 1.4100关口，才足以消除下行风险。 周日（4月27日）外汇市场休市。美元兑加元4月25日上涨，与上一日收盘价持平，在汇市尾市收于 1.3854。加拿大 ...