Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD is facing downward pressure, hovering around the 1.3470 area, amid a mild recovery in dollar buying interest, with the July PCE inflation data aligning with market expectations, opening the door for a potential Fed rate cut in September [1][5]. Technical Analysis - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is slightly below 50, indicating a weakening bullish momentum as GBP/USD falls below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at 1.3490 [3]. - Key support levels are identified at 1.3460-1.3440 (50% Fibonacci retracement, 100-day and 200-day moving averages) and 1.3400-1.3390 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) [3]. - Resistance levels are seen at 1.3490-1.3500 (100-day moving average, static level), 1.3540 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), and 1.3600 (static level, round number) [3]. Economic Overview - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised the Q2 GDP annualized growth rate to 3.3%, lower than the initial estimate of 3% and market expectations of 3.1% [5]. - Initial jobless claims decreased from 234,000 to 229,000, slightly better than the market expectation of 230,000 [5]. - The upcoming PCE price index data for July is anticipated to show an overall annual inflation rate stabilizing at 2.6%, with core PCE expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month [5].

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading around 0.64 against the US dollar (USD), reflecting a decline of 0.06% from the previous close of 0.6478 [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may initiate a monetary easing cycle in November, potentially lowering interest rates by up to 50 basis points due to concerns over slowing economic growth [1] - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials suggest a flexible policy approach, with potential for rate cuts in September, influenced by trade policy pressures and signs of a weakening labor market [1] Group 2 - The AUD/USD exchange rate is influenced by the interplay between market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and the anticipated magnitude of future RBA rate reductions [1] - Short-term technical analysis indicates that if the AUD/USD can break above the key level of 0.6500, it may trigger a technical rebound; however, stronger-than-expected US GDP and PCE inflation data could strengthen the USD and exert pressure on the AUD [1] - The AUD/USD has faced resistance at the kijun-sen (0.6522) and is currently testing the cloud bottom (0.6474), which is also a Fibonacci retracement level [2] - Positive momentum indicators and a potential golden cross formation on the daily chart suggest a slight bullish bias, with targets set at 0.6568 and possibly 0.6625 if upward momentum continues [2] - Conversely, if the AUD/USD falls below the cloud bottom, it may test support levels at 0.6450 and 0.6419 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing a range-bound movement due to seasonal factors and market conditions, with support from Japanese importers limiting further strengthening of the yen [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - As of August 11, the USD/JPY is trading around 147.57, down 0.10% from the previous close of 147.72 [1]. - The market's trading interest has decreased due to the summer off-season and the upcoming Japanese Obon holiday [1]. - The current yield spread between Japanese and U.S. two-year bonds is approximately 294 basis points, while the ten-year spread is about 275 basis points, indicating a narrowing trend [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY has shown resilience below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level since the low in July, suggesting caution for bearish positions [2]. - The daily chart indicates neutral oscillators, with potential resistance at the 147.75 area (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and the psychological level of 148.00 [2]. - A breakout above 148.00 would suggest a short-term bottom has formed, shifting market sentiment towards bullish [2].

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, has seen a significant increase in holdings, reaching 954.8 tons, with a notable rise of 7.74 tons in a single trading day, indicating strong investor interest in gold amid economic uncertainties [6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of July 22, the total holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust stand at 954.8 tons, reflecting a substantial increase of 7.74 tons from the previous trading day [6]. - Over the past two trading days, the cumulative increase in gold ETF holdings has exceeded 10 tons, highlighting a growing trend in gold investment [6]. Group 2: Gold Price Movement - On July 22, spot gold prices rebounded for the second consecutive day, reaching a peak of $3433.53 per ounce, the highest since June 16, and closing at $3431.66 per ounce, up $34.73 or 1.02% [6]. - The price of gold is currently above all major simple moving averages (SMA), with the 14-day relative strength index remaining firmly above the midpoint, indicating a bullish trend [7]. Group 3: Economic Factors Influencing Gold - The decline of the US dollar index has been a significant driver for the rebound in gold prices, influenced by uncertainties surrounding trade agreements between the US and other economies such as Japan and the EU [6]. - Concerns over the US economic growth outlook, exacerbated by tariff uncertainties, have led investors to seek refuge in gold, further supporting its price [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Following a strong breakout above the $3400 mark, gold prices are expected to target static resistance at around $3440, with a potential move towards the historical high of $3500 [8]. - Should there be a correction, gold may test the $3377 level, with support likely found around the $3330 area, which coincides with the 21-day and 50-day moving averages [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations due to rising inflation data and changes in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4][5] - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. rose by 0.3% month-on-month, marking the largest increase since January, which aligns with market expectations [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2%, with the annual inflation rate rising from 2.8% in May to 2.9% in June, leading to a slight adjustment in market expectations for interest rate cuts [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate futures indicate a market expectation of approximately 44 basis points of rate cuts by the end of the year, down from an earlier 80% probability of a cut in September [3] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious stance on inflation suggests that the Fed may remain prudent regarding rate cuts, despite the moderate inflation data [3] - Upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data is anticipated to provide further guidance to the market, with potential implications for gold prices depending on inflation signals [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis of gold prices shows a bearish outlook, with the price struggling to break through resistance levels and facing downward pressure from a strengthening U.S. dollar [4][5] - Gold prices are currently trading near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the June decline, indicating a lack of upward momentum [4] - The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) has lost its upward momentum, and the price is trading above this level but below the 100-period and 200-period SMAs, suggesting potential further declines [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have been on the rise for three consecutive days, with expectations for a weekly gain, driven by renewed trade war concerns following President Trump's announcement of new tariffs [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices are experiencing upward momentum, with traders closely monitoring trade developments amid a quiet U.S. economic calendar [2]. - Safe-haven investments have resurfaced in the Asian trading session due to President Trump's tariff statements, leading to a cautious market sentiment [3]. - Trump's threats to impose a 35% tariff on goods imported from Canada, effective August 1, have dampened optimism regarding trade negotiations between Washington and Europe [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The instability of Trump's trade policies has weakened investor confidence, reigniting demand for both the U.S. dollar and gold as safe-haven assets [5]. - Despite the dollar's rebound, gold buyers remain undeterred, with anxiety surrounding the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which may provide insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices are rebounding from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $3,297, reclaiming the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3,325 [9]. - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surpassed the midline, currently near 50.50, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment towards precious metals [10]. - A daily close above the 50-day SMA at $3,323 is necessary for buyers to challenge the 21-day SMA at $3,344, with potential resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $3,377 [11].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are rebounding, driven by concerns over trade tensions and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, following recent tariff announcements by President Trump [1][2][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have rebounded from a weekly low of $3283, supported by the weakening U.S. dollar and declining Treasury yields [3][5]. - The U.S. Treasury yields have decreased due to renewed economic growth concerns and strong demand for $39 billion in 10-year bonds [6]. - President Trump announced new tariffs on various goods, including a 20% tariff on products from the Philippines and 50% on copper imports, effective August 1 [6][7]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices successfully recovered the key 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $3297, despite briefly testing below this level [12]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently near 48.50, indicating a lack of bullish confidence [12]. - A sustained breakthrough above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance at $3323 is necessary for a meaningful rebound towards the 21-day SMA at $3346 [13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The focus is on Trump's tariff negotiations, upcoming U.S. economic data releases, and speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers for new trading signals for gold prices [9]. - Continued weakness in the dollar and low Treasury yields may provide ongoing support for non-yielding gold prices [9]. - If gold prices are rejected at the 50-day SMA, increased selling pressure could lead to a test of the 38.2% Fibonacci support level at $3297 [14].

Economic Data and Events - Investors should closely monitor key economic data and events this week, including speeches from Federal Reserve officials, ISM manufacturing data, ADP employment report, and non-farm payroll data, as these will provide insights into the Fed's monetary policy path and influence gold prices [1] Gold Market Analysis - The international gold market experienced a downward trend last week due to a rapid decline in risk aversion, breaking below the critical level of 3300, resulting in a small bearish candle [1] - The weekly chart indicates that gold has fallen below the MA10 support, with the MACD indicator forming a death cross at high levels, suggesting potential further decline towards the MA20 [1] - The daily chart shows that bullish momentum has halted, with the moving averages in a tight range, and although the MACD has formed a death cross, it is near the zero line, indicating limited downside potential before a breakout [1] - Short-term trading strategy for gold suggests focusing on buying on dips around 3290, with a stop loss at 3282 and a target of 3320-3340 [1] Silver Market Analysis - The daily chart for silver shows a small candlestick with a notably low wick, resembling a potential doji pattern, indicating market indecision between buyers and sellers [3] - The support level at 35.12, corresponding to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from April to June, provides a solid technical base, while resistance above may limit short-term gains [3] - Domestic silver futures are trading above 8765, with a slight increase of 0.09%, indicating a bullish short-term outlook [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rebound in spot gold prices after a period of decline, raising questions about the potential for further upward movement in the market [1] Group 1 - Spot gold has shown signs of recovery after a decline, indicating a potential for upward movement [1] - The strongest support level for the 15-minute timeframe is identified at 3308, which coincides with Fibonacci retracement levels, pivot points, and moving averages [1]

Group 1 - The international gold price experienced fluctuations, opening at $3285.91 per ounce, reaching a high of $3294.46, a low of $3245.29, and closing at $3268.49, reflecting a decline of 0.56% [1] Group 2 - The Dutch International Group analyst Karsten Brzeski reported a worsening labor market in Germany, with an increase of 34,000 unemployed in May, maintaining an unemployment rate of 6.3%. The number of unemployed has risen from approximately 2.2 million in May 2022 to nearly 3 million [3] - The analyst noted that the growth in employment is attributed to immigration, but this is insufficient to counteract weak private consumption, as many new jobs are part-time and low-paying. However, there are initial signs of labor market stabilization, with improved hiring plans in both industrial and service sectors [3] - Analysts from BNP Paribas indicated that if the money market excludes expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, the yield on two-year U.S. Treasury bonds is expected to rise in the coming months, with projections of 4.10% in Q3 and a decline to 4.00% in Q4 [3] Group 3 - Technically, gold prices have broken below the short-term upward trend line and the 200-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, indicating a bearish short-term trend. A drop below the key support level of $3245 could lead to further declines towards $3215, $3200, and $3180 [4] - The daily chart shows that gold has closed lower for four consecutive days, effectively breaking below the lower boundary of the short-term upward channel and operating below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, indicating weakened short-term momentum [4] - The MACD indicator shows a bearish crossover, with increasing green bars confirming the bearish signal. The $3245 level is a previous support zone, and if breached, it may test the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3215, potentially approaching the psychological level of $3200 [4]