亚洲货币兑美元汇率早盘持稳，但地缘政治风险或形成压制。OCBC集团研究部两位分析师指出，尤其 在美国军事介入委内瑞拉后，市场对格陵兰岛局势存在担忧。LSEG数据显示，美元/日元微幅波动至 156.58，美元/韩元小幅上涨0.2%至1448.60，澳元/美元下跌0.1%至0.6731。 责任编辑：王许宁 亚洲货币兑美元汇率早盘持稳，但地缘政治风险或形成压制。OCBC集团研究部两位分析师指出，尤其 在美国军事介入委内瑞拉后，市场对格陵兰岛局势存在担忧。LSEG数据显示，美元/日元微幅波动至 156.58，美元/韩元小幅上涨0.2%至1448.60，澳元/美元下跌0.1%至0.6731。 责任编辑：王许宁 ...

四小时图 1小时图 在H4图表中，美元/日元已完成首轮下跌至154.34的走势，随后出现修正性反弹至156.93。我们预计将形成新一轮下跌浪，目标指向154.73。此后该货币对可 能在此水平附近形成震荡区间。若后续自该区间向下突破，将预示更广泛的下跌趋势延续，打开通向152.58的通道。MACD指标支持此看跌观点——其信号 线位于零轴下方并呈现明确下行趋势。 市场普遍预期日本央行将基准利率上调25个基点至0.75%。但市场关注焦点在于行长植田和男在会后声明中给出的前瞻性指引。其发言将被仔细解读，以寻 找2025年全年货币紧缩政策节奏与力度的信号。 分析师目前预测日本央行政策利率可能在2026年7月达到1.0%。这一鹰派预期基于国内经济数据的韧性，尤其是消费者通胀率持续顽固地高于日本央行的历 史目标。 值得注意的是，政治层面对加息的阻力似乎正在减弱。高市早苗内阁不太可能反对加息，因为日元持续疲软——部分源于政策正常化延迟——已推高进口成 本并加剧通胀压力。 DLSMARKETS技术分析：美元/日元 周一，日元兑美元汇率升至155日元关口附近，创下逾一周新高。此次升值反映出投资者对日本央行周五关键货币政策会议的预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing a rebound that is currently stagnating, influenced by rising US Treasury yields and interventions from Japanese authorities, particularly the hawkish signals from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Japanese yen was the weakest currency on Tuesday, facing selling pressure as market sentiment improved and the impact of former BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's unexpected hawkish comments began to fade [1]. - The market's expectations for the BOJ's tightening policy provide potential support for the yen, as Ueda's hawkish remarks indicate a consideration of the "pros and cons" of interest rate hikes, which negatively affected market risk appetite [1]. - A recent auction of Japanese government bonds exceeded expectations, alleviating some market concerns, although overall risk appetite remains fragile [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - US economic data has reinforced expectations for policy easing, with the November ISM Manufacturing PMI indicating that industry activity has contracted for the ninth consecutive month, alongside deteriorating new orders and employment metrics, and rising inflation levels [1]. - The divergence in monetary policy between the US and Japan is expected to continue, limiting the upside potential for the USD/JPY exchange rate [2].

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate rose approximately 0.50% to around 156.50, continuing the recent depreciation of the yen, driven by hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve [1] - Japanese Finance Minister Kato warned of potential intervention in the foreign exchange market to address excessive volatility and the rapid depreciation of the yen, indicating growing concerns from the Japanese government [1] - Japan's consumer price index (CPI) and core CPI both increased by 3.0% year-on-year in October, with the core CPI excluding fresh food and energy rising to 3.1%, suggesting inflation remains significantly above the Bank of Japan's 2% target [2] Group 2 - The U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly exceeding market expectations of 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, alleviating concerns about a slowdown in the labor market [2] - The hawkish outlook from the Federal Reserve has led to the largest weekly gain for the dollar since late May, limiting the downside potential for the USD/JPY pair [2] - Technical analysis indicates that the USD/JPY is in a slightly overbought state, with support expected around 157.00 and critical support at 156.00, while immediate resistance is at 158.00 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing a rebound, testing the 157.50 level, despite verbal interventions from Japanese authorities, indicating ongoing pressure on the yen and a strong dollar driven by reduced risk aversion in the market [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The latest USD/JPY exchange rate is reported at 157.3900, with a gain of 0.15% [1] - Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno expressed concerns over the recent "one-sided and rapid" fluctuations in the yen's exchange rate, emphasizing the need for vigilance against excessive volatility [1] - The yen has recently fallen below the 157 mark, reaching its lowest level since January of this year, attributed to weakened expectations for short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily RSI for USD/JPY is in a slightly overbought zone, which may limit the bullish sentiment and lead to a consolidation or moderate pullback [2] - If the exchange rate adjusts, the 156.60 area may serve as the first support level; a drop below 156.00 could trigger further technical selling pressure [2] - Should the market continue to rise, the 157.50 area is identified as a key resistance level, with potential upward movement towards 158.00 and higher resistance at approximately 158.50, aiming for the January high of 159.00 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is hovering near a ten-month high, with expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) following hawkish comments from a BoJ board member, signaling a possible shift in monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The USD/JPY exchange rate recently broke above the 157 level, reaching a high of 157.18, the highest since January 15, when it hit 158.08 [2]. - The market anticipates that the USD/JPY pair will maintain its strong trend unless there are substantial interventions from Japanese authorities [2]. - Investors are closely monitoring any signals that could indicate a policy shift, as the yen has recently fallen to a ten-month low, diminishing its appeal as a safe-haven asset [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - Market expectations suggest that both the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve will maintain their current policies during their December meetings, supporting Japanese and U.S. government bond yields [2]. - The recent hawkish remarks from BoJ board member Junko Koeda have heightened expectations for a potential interest rate hike as early as December, with the market interpreting her comments as a clear signal for policy normalization [1][2]. - The BoJ faces the challenge of balancing monetary policy normalization with currency stability, especially as the yen weakens [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators show that the daily RSI for USD/JPY is in a slightly overbought territory, suggesting a potential need for consolidation or a moderate pullback before the next upward movement [3]. - Key support levels are identified at the 156.60 area, with further declines below 156.00 potentially triggering additional selling pressure [3]. - If the price continues to rise, the 157.50 area is seen as a critical resistance level, with a breakthrough potentially leading to a test of the 158.00 mark [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has recently depreciated significantly against the US dollar, prompting concerns from Japanese officials and speculation about potential government intervention in the currency market [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's economy contracted for the first time in six quarters during the July-September period, raising doubts about the Bank of Japan's ability to raise interest rates in the near term [1]. - The Japanese government is planning a new round of tax reforms aimed at stimulating consumption and investment, which may create a fiscal gap of approximately 1.5 trillion yen [1]. Group 2: Currency Market Dynamics - The USD/JPY exchange rate briefly fell below the psychological level of 155.00, influenced by a lack of sustained buying interest in the dollar and rising risk aversion [1][2]. - The recent decline in the yen has led to verbal interventions from Japan's Finance Minister, which, along with general risk aversion, provided slight support for the yen [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, the closing above the 155.00 psychological level is seen as a new trigger point for bullish sentiment in the USD/JPY pair [3]. - The potential for the USD/JPY to break through the resistance levels of 155.60-155.65 and reach the 156.00 level is significant, while any downward correction below 155.00 may find support in the 154.50-154.45 range [3].

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently at 154.7300, with a slight increase of 0.12%, reflecting limited reaction to Japan's economic contraction in Q3, which was less severe than expected [1] - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year, indicating insufficient economic momentum and leading to lowered expectations for the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes [1] - The Japanese government is promoting a new round of fiscal stimulus to alleviate rising living costs, suggesting continued expansionary fiscal policy and a likely maintenance of loose monetary policy, which may hinder the yen's ability to gain interest rate advantages [1] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY maintains a bullish structure in the short term, with clear resistance levels identified [2] - A strong rebound occurred from the 153.60 level, breaking through the 154.45-154.50 resistance zone, indicating potential for further upward movement if the 155.00 psychological level is breached [2] - The support level at 154.00 remains intact; however, a drop below 153.60 could shift the short-term bias to bearish, targeting the 152.10 range [2]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing fluctuations, currently trading at 153.6200, following a significant rebound after a dip, influenced by various economic indicators and statements from Japanese officials [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The USD/JPY rate saw a decline of 0.5% on Tuesday due to warnings from Japan's Finance Minister, but rebounded on Wednesday, driven by better-than-expected ADP data from the US [1]. - Japan's September wage income level showed a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, raising concerns about the sustainability of demand-driven inflation in Japan [1]. - The market is questioning the Bank of Japan's ability to generate sustainable inflation pressure, given the ongoing weakness in wages despite a rising inflation environment [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The Bank of Japan is awaiting wage growth momentum before considering interest rate hikes, with the December rate increase not guaranteed [1]. - The upcoming speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on December 1 is anticipated to be a critical factor, especially after an unexpected rise in Tokyo's CPI last month [1]. - Market expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan are increasing, as indicated by interest rate futures for January to April next year [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY remains within an upward channel, but the recent decline in the exchange rate amidst a rising dollar index suggests a decrease in market enthusiasm for shorting the yen [2]. - There is a growing risk of adjustment for the USD/JPY as the dollar approaches a potential peak and as the yen's interest rate hike process progresses [2].

Core Viewpoint - The divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan is significantly impacting the foreign exchange market, with the Japanese yen being particularly affected [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance - The Federal Reserve's unexpected hawkish tone during the October FOMC meeting has raised doubts about the anticipated interest rate cuts in December, leading to a stronger dollar outlook [6][8]. - Market reactions indicate a shift in expectations, with a notable reduction in the likelihood of rate cuts for December and January, while adjustments for subsequent meetings in 2026 remain limited [6][8]. - The Fed's internal tensions regarding employment and inflation targets are becoming more pronounced, especially with nominal growth rates around 5% [6][8]. Group 2: Bank of Japan's Dovish Position - Contrary to market expectations, the Bank of Japan decided to maintain its policy rate at 0.50% during the October meeting, which led to a significant depreciation of the yen [10][12]. - The Bank's decision reflects a respect for the current government's preference for inflation and yen depreciation, with expectations for a potential rate hike now pushed to January 2024 [10][12]. - The yen's rapid decline was evident as the USD/JPY exchange rate surged from approximately 152.20 to over 154 following the Bank's announcement [10][12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Predictions - The current market dynamics are driven by a "high market policy trade," characterized by buying Japanese stocks while selling yen, which is expected to continue as long as the Bank of Japan remains inactive [5][11]. - Morgan Stanley's model suggests that the fair value of USD/JPY is around 154.5, indicating potential for further upward movement in the short term [11]. - However, there are concerns about intervention risks if the exchange rate exceeds 155, with warnings from Japan's new finance minister signaling heightened scrutiny of foreign exchange market movements [12][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley has revised its USD/JPY forecasts significantly, projecting 156 for Q4 2025, up from a previous estimate of 142 [13]. - The expectation is that after the Bank of Japan's next rate hike in January, the USD/JPY will gradually trend downward [14].