Equity Market Review and Outlook - The core variable affecting the market remains the Middle East, with both short-term trading logic and long-term "stagflation risk" expectations dependent on whether the geopolitical conflict can be resolved quickly [1][5] - Until uncertainties in the geopolitical situation decrease or commodity price volatility declines, the market will continue to be impacted by event narratives and liquidity shocks, leading to a focus on long-term expectations [5][6] - A-shares are expected to maintain a volatile trend, with structural opportunities being more prominent than overall opportunities; recommended sectors include energy-related stocks (oil, green energy, coal, coal chemical), low valuation and low volatility stocks (state-owned banks, utilities), and sectors that can maintain high prosperity independent of geopolitical and oil price influences (energy storage, domestic AIDC) [1][5][6] Fixed Income Market Review and Outlook - The bond market showed significant differentiation between short and long ends, with the 1-year government bond yield decreasing by 2.00 basis points to 1.26%, while the 10-year and 30-year yields increased by 1.56 basis points to 1.83% and 2.16 basis points to 2.39%, respectively [2][7] - The current bond market is in a volatile state, with extreme risk aversion driving down short-end yields, while long-end yields are rising due to escalating geopolitical conflicts and heightened inflation expectations [7][8] - The market sentiment is cautious, with a focus on short-end credit products showing strong allocation value; however, long-end yields have limited downward momentum, and liquidity may face certain shocks as the quarter-end approaches [2][7] Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a volatile decline, with average daily trading volume at 22,091 billion, a decrease from the previous week; the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant drop in global risk assets [4][5] - Funds are shifting from macro-sensitive cyclical sectors to technology manufacturing sectors with independent growth logic, driven by multiple industry benefits such as the overseas GTC conference and price increases in cloud computing and storage products [4][5] - Resource cyclical sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals are under pressure, primarily due to external macroeconomic impacts, including rising oil prices and concerns over the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have been under pressure due to geopolitical developments and a strengthening US dollar, with prices hitting their lowest since August 1 [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The US dollar index fluctuated around the 98 mark, closing up 0.12% at 98.24, while the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.309% and the 2-year yield at 3.759% [2] - July housing data showed a 5.2% increase in single-family home starts to 1.428 million units, driven by growth in apartment projects, but building permits fell 2.8% to a five-year low of 1.35 million units, indicating mixed signals in the housing market [2] - The yield curve's bearish steepening reflects rising inflation expectations, which negatively impacts gold as higher yields attract funds to bonds over non-yielding assets [2] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors are hedging ahead of the upcoming meeting, concerned about a potentially hawkish stance from Powell, while cautious consumer spending and uncertainty regarding tariffs on holiday sales are exacerbating market volatility [3] - Despite pressure on tech stocks, real estate stocks rose by 1.8%, indicating a rotation of funds that may indirectly support gold as a diversification asset [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have further declined, remaining within the expected range, with resistance at the 3345 level and potential support at 3315-3300 [4] - The price has dropped below $3320 per ounce, suggesting a challenge to the 100-day simple moving average at $3301 per ounce [4] - To regain bullish momentum, traders need to reclaim the convergence point of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages at $3347-48 per ounce, with further resistance at $3452 and the historical high of $3500 per ounce [4]