Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have been under pressure due to geopolitical developments and a strengthening US dollar, with prices hitting their lowest since August 1 [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The US dollar index fluctuated around the 98 mark, closing up 0.12% at 98.24, while the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.309% and the 2-year yield at 3.759% [2] - July housing data showed a 5.2% increase in single-family home starts to 1.428 million units, driven by growth in apartment projects, but building permits fell 2.8% to a five-year low of 1.35 million units, indicating mixed signals in the housing market [2] - The yield curve's bearish steepening reflects rising inflation expectations, which negatively impacts gold as higher yields attract funds to bonds over non-yielding assets [2] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors are hedging ahead of the upcoming meeting, concerned about a potentially hawkish stance from Powell, while cautious consumer spending and uncertainty regarding tariffs on holiday sales are exacerbating market volatility [3] - Despite pressure on tech stocks, real estate stocks rose by 1.8%, indicating a rotation of funds that may indirectly support gold as a diversification asset [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have further declined, remaining within the expected range, with resistance at the 3345 level and potential support at 3315-3300 [4] - The price has dropped below $3320 per ounce, suggesting a challenge to the 100-day simple moving average at $3301 per ounce [4] - To regain bullish momentum, traders need to reclaim the convergence point of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages at $3347-48 per ounce, with further resistance at $3452 and the historical high of $3500 per ounce [4]

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently trading around $3315 per ounce, hovering near a two-week low due to a strong dollar, uncertainty in Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical signals, and macroeconomic data volatility [1][3] - On August 20, gold initially rose to a daily high of $3345.25 but ultimately closed down 0.52% at $3315.03, reflecting a reversal in market sentiment [3] - The increase in the dollar index by 0.15% to 98.27 has made gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies, thereby suppressing demand [3] Group 2 - UBS has raised its gold price target for March 2026 to $3600, citing ongoing macroeconomic risks in the U.S., a decline in dollar usage, and strong investment demand, suggesting that the recent drop in gold prices may be temporary [3] - Recent housing data showed a 5.2% increase in single-family home starts to 1.428 million units, driven by growth in apartment projects, although building permits fell by 2.8% to a five-year low of 1.35 million units, indicating mixed signals in the housing market [4] - The yield curve's steepening reflects rising inflation expectations, which is unfavorable for gold as higher yields attract funds to bonds rather than non-yielding assets [5] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices have broken below $3314, with immediate support seen at around $3306 and stronger support at $3291, while resistance is noted at approximately $3325 [6] - The market sentiment is cautious ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting, with investors hedging against potential hawkish signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell [5]

Group 1 - The investment rating of the bond industry is not mentioned in the report Group 2 - The core view of the report is that there are both positive and negative factors in the bond market. The positive factors are the continuous loosening of the capital market and the increasing expectation of the overseas Fed's interest rate cut. The negative factors are the rising inflation expectation and the phased recovery of capital interest rates. The market is cautious about the VAT benefits and regards them as short - term factors and should not be overly optimistic [3] Group 3 Market Factors - Positive factors include the continuous loosening of the capital market, rising treasury bond futures prices, falling yields, and increasing overseas Fed's interest rate cut expectation, which support the domestic bond market and boost the overall atmosphere [3] - Negative factors include the rising inflation expectation caused by policy - stimulated commodity price increases and the phased recovery of capital interest rates combined with high - level wealth management leverage, leading to partial profit - taking behavior [3] Transaction Advice - The market is cautious about the VAT benefits and considers them as short - term factors, not suitable for excessive optimism [3] Data Presentation - The report presents the data of treasury bond yields, capital interest rates, treasury bond term spreads, treasury bond futures positions, trading volumes, basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads, covering 2 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds [4][5][8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The latest survey by the Bank of Mexico indicates an upward adjustment in the economic growth forecast for 2025 from 0.13% to 0.2%, marking the third consecutive month of improvement in growth expectations [1] Economic Growth Expectations - The Mexican Ministry of Finance has a more optimistic forecast for 2025, predicting economic growth between 1.50% and 2.30% [1] - The upward revision in growth expectations reflects a gradual improvement in the economic outlook [1] Inflation Projections - The year-end inflation rate forecast has been raised to 4.11%, the highest level since September 2024, and has increased for four consecutive months [1] - The persistent inflationary pressure is expected to limit the monetary policy flexibility [1] External Challenges and Currency Impact - Despite external challenges such as increased tariffs from the U.S., the depreciation of the peso is seen as a factor that may help mitigate the rising export costs [1] - The Ministry of Finance believes that the peso's depreciation can partially offset negative impacts, allowing for moderate economic growth [1] Policy Considerations - Experts suggest that the low growth forecast of 0.2% is significantly below macroeconomic potential, and the inflation expectation above 4% will constrain monetary policy options [1] - Future decisions by the Bank of Mexico will need to balance between interest rate cuts and controlling inflation, while fiscal policy must enhance support for the sluggish growth to avoid a dual trap of economic stagnation and rising prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Barr stated that there may be persistent inflation due to rising short-term inflation expectations, supply chain adjustments, and second-round effects [1] Group 1 - Short-term inflation expectations are on the rise, indicating potential challenges for the economy [1] - Supply chain adjustments are contributing to the inflationary pressures, suggesting ongoing disruptions in the market [1] - Second-round effects may lead to further inflation persistence, highlighting the interconnectedness of economic factors [1]

Core Insights - The domestic gold market in China has shown significant growth in transaction volume and value in Q1 2025, driven by various factors across production, consumption, market activity, and policy changes Production Insights - Gold production in China has steadily increased, with companies optimizing resource utilization and accelerating overseas expansion. Major gold mining projects are advancing, and large gold groups are actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions. In Q1 2025, overseas gold production reached 18.485 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.14% [1] Consumption Insights - There is a structural divergence in gold consumption, with investment demand surging while jewelry consumption remains weak due to high gold prices. Traditional gold and lightweight gold jewelry are in high demand, particularly among younger consumers. Investment in gold bars and coins has significantly increased due to geopolitical uncertainties and economic instability [2] Market Activity Insights - The gold market in China has experienced heightened trading activity, with substantial increases in both transaction volume and value. In Q1 2025, the Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a total trading volume of 16,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.57%, and a transaction value of 10.7 trillion yuan, up 42.85%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a trading volume of 55,400 tons, a 91.17% increase, and a transaction value of 30.52 trillion yuan, up 143.69%. Additionally, domestic gold ETF holdings grew by 23.47 tons, a staggering year-on-year increase of 327.73% [3] Policy Insights - The Chinese government has reinforced the asset allocation properties of gold, with recent policies allowing insurance funds to invest in gold. This has led to the first insurance fund gold investment transaction under the new framework, injecting new vitality into the gold market [4] Investment Logic Insights - The surge in gold ETF holdings is attributed to increased demand for safe-haven assets, expectations of loose monetary policy, rising inflation expectations, a weakening dollar, and heightened investment interest. Factors such as international trade tensions and geopolitical risks have amplified the need for safe-haven investments [6][7][8][9][10][11][12]