Macro and Strategy Research - The economic data for July 2025 shows that the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 6.0% and previous value of 6.8% [3] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 4.6% and previous value of 4.8% [4] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth is at 1.6%, also below expectations [4] Company Research: Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. (603799) - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 37.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.711 billion yuan, up 62.26% [15] - Nickel product shipments increased significantly, with nickel product output reaching 139,400 tons, a year-on-year growth of 83.91% [16] - The company has made significant progress in cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a sales net profit margin of 9.33%, an increase of 1.44 percentage points year-on-year [16] Industry Research: Metal Industry - Frequent bidding by major magnetic material manufacturers is expected to boost the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide [10] - The steel industry is facing supply constraints due to tightened production policies, but demand may be impacted by construction site shutdowns [11] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate due to insufficient fundamental support, with potential demand driven by seasonal inventory accumulation [11] - The rare earth market is seeing improved inquiry conditions, with light rare earth prices expected to be supported in the short term [12]

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - Among the bonds traded at a discount, "24 Railway MTN008B" had a relatively large deviation in valuation price. Among the bonds with rising net prices, "23 Vanke 01" led in terms of valuation price deviation. Among the Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with falling net prices, "20 Langfang Bank Perpetual Bond 01" had a relatively small deviation in valuation price; among the commercial financial bonds with falling net prices, "22 HSBC Bank 02" had a relatively small deviation in valuation price. Among the bonds with a trading yield higher than 6%, real estate bonds ranked at the top [2]. - The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the (0,5] range. The trading terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the 0.5 - 1 - year variety having the highest proportion of discounted trades; the trading terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years. By industry, bonds in the petroleum and petrochemical industry had the largest average deviation in valuation price [2]. 2. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 Discounted Bond Trading - The report tracked bonds with large discounts, including "24 Railway MTN008B" with a valuation price deviation of - 1.05% and a trading volume of 20,857 million yuan, and "GC Three Gorges K4" with a valuation price deviation of - 0.78% and a trading volume of 105 million yuan [3]. 2.2 Bonds with Rising Net Prices - Bonds with significant positive deviations in trading were tracked, such as "23 Vanke 01" with a valuation price deviation of 0.17% and a trading volume of 10 million yuan, and "21 Vanke 06" with a valuation price deviation of 0.17% and a trading volume of 621 million yuan [5]. 2.3 Tier 2 and Perpetual Bond Trading - The trading of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds was monitored. For example, "20 Langfang Bank Perpetual Bond 01" had a valuation price deviation of - 0.01% and a trading volume of 198 million yuan, and "20 Construction Bank Tier 2" had a valuation price deviation of - 0.02% and a trading volume of 3,507 million yuan [6]. 2.4 Commercial Financial Bond Trading - The trading of commercial financial bonds was tracked. "22 HSBC Bank 02" had a valuation price deviation of - 0.01% and a trading volume of 32,014 million yuan, and "22 Hangzhou Bank Bond 01" had a valuation price deviation of - 0.01% and a trading volume of 30,035 million yuan [7]. 2.5 Bonds with Yields Higher than 6% - Bonds with trading yields higher than 6% were monitored, including "22 Vanke 06" with a valuation yield of 7.05% and a trading volume of 1,029 million yuan, and "24 Ruimao 02" with a valuation yield of 8.14% and a trading volume of 328 million yuan [8]. 2.6 Credit Bond Valuation Deviation Distribution - The distribution of credit bond valuation yield changes on the day was mainly in the (0,5] range, and the trading terms of non - financial credit bonds and Tier 2 and perpetual bonds showed different characteristics [2]. 2.7 Industry - wise Non - financial Credit Bond Discounted Trading - By industry, bonds in the petroleum and petrochemical industry had the largest average deviation in valuation price, and different industries had different proportions of discounted trades and trading volumes [2][17]

Group 1 - The bond market has shown volatility this year, with the China Bond New Comprehensive Index rising by 0.97% year-to-date. Short-term policy bank bonds have outperformed medium to long-term bonds in a low-interest environment, leading to a narrowing of credit spreads and better performance of credit bonds compared to interest rate bonds [1][6][10] - In July, the overall wealth index return of the domestic RMB bond market declined, with the net price index and wealth index returns of the China Bond New Comprehensive Index at -0.30% and -0.08%, respectively [8][21] - Government bond yields have slightly increased, with fluctuations in the yield spreads between government bonds and policy bank bonds. The wealth index of the China Bond Total Index fell by 0.17%, while the short-term government bond index showed slightly better returns [21][15] Group 2 - Credit bond yields have experienced fluctuations, benefiting from coupon income, with the overall wealth index return of the credit bond market increasing by 0.10%. High-grade credit bond spreads have narrowed [26][29] - The green bond market remains stable, with the market value of "green" bonds reaching 6.67 trillion yuan, up 1.01% from the previous month. The China Bond Green Bond Comprehensive Index, which includes 1,002 bonds from 401 issuers, has a market value of 1.76 trillion yuan [12][2] - The performance of various industry credit bonds has been positive, with the real estate industry credit bond index returning approximately 0.20%, marking the best performance among sectors [31][33]

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints The report presents the valuation price deviations of different types of bonds, including AA-rated urban investment bonds, individual bonds with top net price declines, individual bonds with top net price increases, and Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with top net price increases [2]. 2. Summary by Category 2.1 Discounted AA Urban Investment Bonds - Among the top 50 AA urban investment bonds (by subject rating) with the largest discount margins, "25 Dongtou Group PPN001B" has the largest valuation price deviation, with a remaining term of 4.66 years, a valuation price deviation of -0.29%, a valuation net price of 102.18 yuan, and a valuation yield of 2.78% [2][4]. 2.2 Individual Bonds with Top Net Price Declines - Among the top 50 individual bonds with the largest net price declines, "21 Ningzhuan 01" has the largest valuation price deviation, with a remaining term of 3.00 years, a valuation price deviation of -23.99%, a valuation net price of 63.43 yuan, and a valuation yield of 1.99% [2][5]. 2.3 Individual Bonds with Top Net Price Increases - Among the top 50 individual bonds with the largest net price increases, "H1 Bidi 02" has the largest valuation price deviation, with a remaining term of 1.84 years, a valuation price deviation of 7.48%, a valuation net price of 4.31 yuan, and a valuation yield of 2468.03% [2][7]. 2.4 Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds with Top Net Price Increases - Among the top 50 Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with the largest net price increases, "23 Weifang Bank Tier 2 Capital Bond 01" has the largest valuation price deviation, with a remaining term of 3.05 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.08%, a valuation net price of 105.36 yuan, and a valuation yield of 2.92% [2][9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Based on Wind data, among the bonds traded at a discount, "24 Chengtong Holdings MTN009A" had a relatively large deviation in valuation price. Among the bonds with rising net prices, "24 Huangchan 02" led in terms of valuation price deviation. Among the Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with rising net prices, "23 Haixia Bank Perpetual Bond 03" had a relatively large deviation in valuation price; among the commercial financial bonds with rising net prices, "25 Nanjing Bank Green Bond 01" led in terms of valuation price deviation. Among the bonds with a trading yield higher than 6%, real - estate bonds ranked at the top. The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the (0,5] range. The trading terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the highest proportion of discount transactions in the 0.5 - 1 - year varieties; the trading terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, with the highest proportion of discount transactions in the within - 1 - year varieties. By industry, the bonds in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry had the largest average deviation in valuation price [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Discounted Bond Trading Tracking - "24 Chengtong Holdings MTN009A" had a valuation price deviation of - 0.28%, a valuation net price of 110.08 yuan, a valuation yield of 2.52%, and a trading volume of 5,519 million yuan. Other bonds such as "25 Ganfeng Lithium MTN001 (Science and Technology Innovation Notes)" also had different degrees of discount trading [4]. 3.2 Tracking of Bonds with Rising Net Prices - "24 Huangchan 02" had a valuation price deviation of 0.39%, a valuation net price of 105.38 yuan, a valuation yield of 3.96%, and a trading volume of 1,148 million yuan. There were also many other bonds with rising net prices and different degrees of valuation price deviations [5]. 3.3 Tracking of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bond Trading - "23 Haixia Bank Perpetual Bond 03" had a valuation price deviation of 0.03%, a valuation net price of 107.30 yuan, a valuation yield of 2.46%, and a trading volume of 4,291 million yuan. Most of the Tier 2 and perpetual bonds had a valuation price deviation of around 0.02% - 0.03% [6]. 3.4 Tracking of Commercial Financial Bond Trading - "25 Nanjing Bank Green Bond 01" had a valuation price deviation of 0.01%, a valuation net price of 99.83 yuan, a valuation yield of 1.75%, and a trading volume of 998 million yuan. Most of the commercial financial bonds had a valuation price deviation of 0.01% [7]. 3.5 Tracking of Bonds with a Trading Yield Higher than 6% - Bonds such as "22 Vanke 02", "22 Vanke 04", and "22 Vanke 06" all had trading yields higher than 6%, with "22 Vanke 02" having a valuation yield of 7.25% and a trading volume of 727 million yuan [8]. 3.6 Distribution of Credit Bond Valuation Deviations on the Day The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the (0,5] range [2]. 3.7 Distribution of Non - financial Credit Bond Trading Terms on the Day The trading terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the highest proportion of discount transactions in the 0.5 - 1 - year varieties [2]. 3.8 Distribution of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bond Trading Terms on the Day The trading terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, with the highest proportion of discount transactions in the within - 1 - year varieties [2]. 3.9 Deviation and Trading Volume of Non - financial Credit Bond Valuation Prices by Industry The bonds in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry had the largest average deviation in valuation price [2].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Bureau jointly released a personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy, offering a subsidy of 1% per year, with a maximum of 50% of the loan contract interest rate [1] - The subsidy applies to personal consumption loans under 50,000 yuan and loans for key areas such as home appliances, automobiles, education, and healthcare [1] - The policy aims to boost consumption and is expected to have a positive impact on high-quality consumption development in China [1] Group 2 - Agricultural Bank of China announced it will implement interest subsidies for eligible personal consumption loans starting September 1, 2025, aligning with national fiscal subsidy policies [2] - This initiative is expected to lower borrowing costs for consumers and enhance their willingness to take loans [2] Group 3 - A-share bank stocks experienced a significant rise, with Agricultural Bank of China hitting a historical high, indicating strong investor sentiment towards the banking sector [3] - The rise in bank stocks reflects optimistic market expectations for future growth in the banking industry and the economic benefits from policy implementations [3] - Agricultural Bank's strong performance may be attributed to its proactive stance in policy execution, gaining market confidence [3] Group 4 - Shenzhen Stock Exchange will release indices for AAA-rated state-owned and private enterprise credit bonds on August 15, 2025, enhancing transparency and standardization in the credit bond market [4] - The indices will provide investors with comprehensive options and market insights, particularly beneficial for those with a preference for credit risk [4]

Economic Indicators - July manufacturing PMI slightly decreased to 49.3, indicating continued contraction for four months[4] - Raw material purchase prices increased by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5, driven by significant price rises in upstream materials like rebar and coke[4] - July service PMI was 50.0, showing a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points, with new orders and business activity expectations being the main drivers[5] Market Trends - The liquidity environment remains a key variable for the equity market, with expectations of continued monetary policy easing supporting market growth[2] - The recent adjustment in the equity market was driven by trading behavior, particularly in "anti-involution" related sectors, leading to significant price drops in futures like coking coal and rebar[7] - The central bank's recent statements suggest a continuation of liquidity support without immediate rate cuts, indicating a stable monetary policy outlook[9] U.S. Economic Outlook - U.S. Q2 GDP growth was reported at 3.0%, a significant increase of 3.5 percentage points from Q1, exceeding market expectations[15] - July non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, a sharp decline of 74,000 from the previous month, indicating growing risks in the labor market[20] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, while the labor force participation rate fell to 62.2%[23] Inflation and Interest Rates - The market anticipates approximately three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, with expected cuts in September, October, and December, totaling around 61 basis points[24] - Recent adjustments in tax policy for newly issued bonds may widen the spread between new and old bonds, impacting the attractiveness of government bonds relative to credit bonds[12]

截至2025年7月29日 14:19，信用债ETF博时(159396)下跌0.18%，最新报价100.75元。 流动性方面，信用债ETF博时盘中换手19.92%，成交24.04亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截至7月 28日，信用债ETF博时近1月日均成交46.04亿元，排名可比基金第一。 华创证券发布研报称，经济基本面暂未出现趋势性反转信号，央行态度仍偏呵护，债市无趋势调整风 险。但短期债市仍处逆风状态，市场风险偏好提振、稳增长政策预期等或仍对债市形成扰动。对于为博 弈资本利得而持有的品种，例如长久期信用债、银行二永债等，建议寻找机会兑现收益，以防后续赎回 潮演绎。对于票息配置品种或不用过度担忧，建议持有观察，多看少动。经过上周调整后，3年期以内 信用债品种初具一定配置性价比。 规模方面，信用债ETF博时最新规模达120.94亿元。 资金流入方面，信用债ETF博时最新资金流入流出持平。拉长时间看，近21个交易日内，合计"吸 金"4.44亿元。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。信用债ETF博时前一交易日融资净买额达1016.58万元，最新融资余 额达1380.80万元。 截至7月28日，信用债ETF博时近6月净 ...

摘要 折价幅度靠前 AA 城投债（主体评级）中，"20 淮南建发 MTN003"估值价格偏离程度最大。净价跌幅靠前 50 只个券中， "23 黄石城发 MTN005"估值价格偏离幅度最大。净价上涨幅度靠前 50 只个券中，"19 昆租 02"估值价格偏离幅度最 大。净价上涨幅度靠前 50 只二永债中，"24 浦发银行二级资本债 01B"估值价格偏离程度最大。 风险提示 统计数据偏差或遗漏，高估值个券出现信用风险 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 固定收益动态(动态) 图表1：折价幅度靠前 AA 城投债（主体评级） | 债券名称 | 剩余期限 | 估值价格 | 估值净价 | 估值收益率 | 当日估值 | 票面利率 | 隐含 | 主体 | 成交日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (年) | 偏离(%) | (元) | 偏离(bp) | 收益(%) | (%) | 评级 | 评级 | | | 20 淮南建发 MTN003 | 0.28 | -0.59 | 100.64 | 8.18 | 1.73 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Among bonds with discounted transactions, "20 Huainan Jianfa MTN003" had a relatively large deviation in bond valuation price. Among bonds with rising net - price transactions, "25 Changde Jingjian MTN002" ranked high in terms of valuation price deviation. Among secondary and perpetual bonds with rising net - price transactions, "20 CITIC Bank Secondary" had a relatively large deviation in valuation price; among commercial financial bonds with rising net - price transactions, "22 Industrial Bank 04" ranked high in terms of valuation price deviation. Among individual bonds with a transaction yield higher than 6%, real - estate bonds ranked high. Credit bond valuation yield changes were mainly distributed in the (0,5] interval. Non - financial credit bond transaction terms were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the 3 - 4 - year - term variety having the highest proportion of discounted transactions; secondary and perpetual bond transaction terms were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years. By industry, bonds in the communication industry had the largest average valuation price deviation [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Discounted Transaction Tracking - Bonds such as "20 Huainan Jianfa MTN003" had discounted transactions, with different remaining terms, valuation price deviations, and transaction scales. For example, "20 Huainan Jianfa MTN003" had a remaining term of 0.28 years, a valuation price deviation of - 0.59%, and a transaction scale of 8,053 yuan [4]. 3.2 Tracking of Bonds with Rising Net - Price Transactions - Bonds like "25 Changde Jingjian MTN002" had rising net - price transactions, with different remaining terms, valuation price deviations, and transaction scales. For instance, "25 Changde Jingjian MTN002" had a remaining term of 4.96 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.16%, and a transaction scale of 5,000 yuan [5]. 3.3 Tracking of Secondary and Perpetual Bond Transactions - Secondary and perpetual bonds such as "20 CITIC Bank Secondary" were tracked. "20 CITIC Bank Secondary" had a remaining term of 0.06 years, a valuation price deviation of - 0.01%, and a transaction scale of 35,046 yuan [6]. 3.4 Tracking of Commercial Financial Bond Transactions - Commercial financial bonds like "22 Industrial Bank 04" were tracked. "22 Industrial Bank 04" had a remaining term of 0.03 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.00%, and a transaction scale of 16,004 yuan [7]. 3.5 Tracking of Individual Bonds with a Transaction Yield Higher than 6% - Real - estate bonds such as "23 Vanke MTN002" had a transaction yield higher than 6%. "23 Vanke MTN002" had a remaining term of 0.80 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.07%, and a transaction scale of 7,781 yuan [8]. 3.6 Distribution of Credit Bond Transaction Valuation Deviations on the Day - Credit bond valuation yield changes were mainly distributed in the (0,5] interval [2][10]. 3.7 Distribution of Non - Financial Credit Bond Transaction Terms on the Day - Non - financial credit bond transaction terms were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the 3 - 4 - year - term variety having the highest proportion of discounted transactions [2][12]. 3.8 Distribution of Secondary and Perpetual Bond Transaction Terms on the Day - Secondary and perpetual bond transaction terms were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years [2][15]. 3.9 Discounted Transaction Proportion and Transaction Scale of Non - Financial Credit Bonds in Each Industry - Bonds in the communication industry had the largest average valuation price deviation, and different industries had different transaction scales [2][17].