Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed performance of the Chinese stock market and economic indicators during the National Day holiday, highlighting the strong stock market despite weak consumption and real estate data [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The stock market showed strong performance, with an increase of over 1.3%, breaking through the 3900 mark, driven by positive sentiment around AI narratives [5]. - The bond market remained stable, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.785% after opening at 1.7925% [5]. - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 612 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 145.13 billion yuan, indicating a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Consumer spending during the holiday was weak, with an average daily expenditure of 113 yuan per person, recovering to 97% of 2019 levels [5]. - Real estate transaction volumes in key cities saw a significant decline, with year-on-year reductions of nearly 50% [5]. - Movie box office revenues were down nearly 60% compared to 2019, reflecting ongoing challenges in the entertainment sector [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the bond market sentiment was volatile, with interest rates showing a V-shaped oscillation. Credit bonds also had mixed performance, with the over - sold second - tier and perpetual (二永) bonds partially recovering, while ultra - long - term credit bonds continued to perform poorly. The cost - effectiveness of coupon assets has increased [1][4][10]. - 2 - 5 - year bank secondary capital bonds can continue to be considered; a strategy of sinking into 1 - 3 - year weak - quality urban investment bonds is recommended, as the riding income of about 3 - year varieties with a yield of over 2.2% is quite significant. Ultra - long - term credit bonds have improved in coupon cost - effectiveness after continuous adjustment, but only allocation - type institutions are advised to consider them due to the lack of marginal improvement in liquidity [4][25]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Bond Market Performance - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The overall trend of interest rate bonds was oscillatory last week. The active 10 - year Treasury bond fluctuated between 1.76% - 1.81%, with the bearish force slightly stronger and the bond price weakening over the week [1][10]. - **Credit Bonds**: Different - term credit bond varieties showed differentiated performance. The yields of 1Y - 5Y Treasury bonds and AAA, AA + medium - and short - term notes changed to varying degrees from September 15th to September 19th, 2025. Ultra - long - term credit bonds continued to weaken, with the decline of 10Y varieties generally exceeding that of the same - term interest rate bonds [10][11][12]. 3.2 Secondary - tier and Perpetual (二永) Bonds - **Yield Changes**: After over - adjustment the week before last, the yields of 1Y - 5Y of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds decreased, while those of ultra - long - term parts were similar to ultra - long - term credit bonds. The yields of 1 - 5 years, 7 years, and 10 years of AAA - bank secondary capital bonds decreased by 1.19BP, 1.21BP, 2.58BP, 0.53BP, 1.51BP respectively, and increased by 1.63BP and 3.53BP respectively [2][17]. - **Trading Situation**: In the first half of the week, the sentiment for recovery was high, while in the second half, it was more pessimistic. From September 15th to September 19th, the proportion of low - valuation transactions of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds was 100.00%, 100.00%, 100.00%, 0.00%, 2.44% respectively; the average trading durations were 6.16 years, 4.66 years, 5.01 years, 1.07 years, 0.96 years respectively. The discount trading amplitude was generally within 2BP, and there were only 8 transactions with an amplitude of over 3BP [18][20]. 3.3 Ultra - long - term Credit Bonds - **Selling Pressure**: The institutional selling of ultra - long - term credit bonds continued to strengthen throughout the week, but it was not a typical urgent selling situation. From September 15th to September 19th, the proportion of discount transactions was 56.10%, 70.73%, 48.78%, 65.85%, 78.05% respectively, and most of the discount amplitudes were within 4BP [3][21]. - **Buying Willingness**: The market's willingness to buy ultra - long - term credit bonds remained weak, and high - activity transactions were mainly concentrated in weak - quality urban investment bonds. The proportion of transactions below the valuation was 26.83%, 9.76%, 36.59%, 21.95%, 7.32% respectively. However, about 25% of the transactions below the valuation had an amplitude of over 4BP, mainly in 2 - 5 - year weak - quality urban investment bonds [3][22][27]. 3.4 Curve Shape and Yield Quantiles - **Curve Steepness**: The steepness of the 1 - 2 - year and 2 - 3 - year segments of the full - grade yield curve was the highest, and it was steeper than that after the sharp decline at the end of July. Taking AA + medium - term notes and AA urban investment bonds as examples, the slopes of different segments were calculated [13]. - **Yield Quantiles**: From September 15th to September 19th, 2025, the 1Y - 3Y coupon assets had a certain cost - effectiveness, but the credit spread protection was insufficient. The valuation yields to maturity of 1Y - AAA, 3Y - AAA, etc. were at the corresponding quantiles since 2024, and the historical quantiles of credit spreads were also provided [14][16].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced a correction, with product net values showing differentiation, particularly favoring rights-inclusive fixed income products over traditional bond funds [2][3][11]. Summary by Sections Fixed Income Product Returns Review - In the past month, the bond market corrected while the stock market rose. The performance of products showed differentiation, with rights-inclusive fixed income products yielding 0.54% (down from 0.84%), high-grade interbank certificates of deposit yielding 0.13% (down from 0.14%), and cash management products yielding 0.10% (unchanged). Short-term bond funds yielded 0.05% (up from 0.03%), while medium to long-term bond funds yielded -0.07% (improved from -0.25%) [3][9][10]. Bond Market Review - The bond market saw a correction with overall sentiment remaining weak. Short-term bonds outperformed long-term bonds, and the yield curve continued to steepen. Key factors influencing the bond market included a gradual increase in market risk appetite, new regulations on public fund fees, and a weak economic backdrop [11][12][19]. Industry Events Tracking - On September 5, the China Securities Regulatory Commission solicited public opinions on the "Publicly Raised Securities Investment Fund Sales Fee Management Regulations (Draft for Comments)," which aims to lower costs for investors and promote long-term investment [35]. Outlook - **Short-term (1 month)**: The interbank certificate of deposit rates are expected to remain stable, with continued pressure for corrections in the market. Long-term bonds are anticipated to underperform compared to short-term bonds [11]. - **Medium-term (3-6 months)**: Economic recovery and inflation trends are under observation, with the potential for a slight rise in interest rates. If the central bank initiates a new round of interest rate cuts, it may alleviate correction pressures in the bond market [11][30]. Fixed Income Product Strategy - Investors are advised to prioritize short to medium-term products, with caution advised for long-term investments. The strategy includes maintaining cash positions and considering stable low-volatility financial products, short-term bond funds, or wealth management products [36][39]. Equity Market Overview - The A-share market has shown upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 4.0%, the CSI 300 Index up 7.8%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 21% over the past month [28]. Asset Class Trends - The bond market is expected to face increased volatility, with a potential top in interest rate increases. The supply of government bonds is projected to decrease, while demand remains supported, leading to a neutral impact on the bond market [30][31]. Investment Recommendations - For conservative investors, maintaining pure bond products is recommended, with a cautious approach to extending duration. For those with higher risk tolerance, mid to long-term bond funds may be considered as interest rates rise above 1.8% [39][40]. Conclusion - The bond market is currently experiencing a phase of correction, with varying performance across different products. Investors are encouraged to adopt a strategic approach based on their risk tolerance and market conditions [36][39].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance and liquidity of the credit bond ETF, specifically the Bosera Credit Bond ETF, which has shown a slight increase and strong trading volume in recent months [3][4] - As of September 16, the Bosera Credit Bond ETF has accumulated a 1.32% increase over the past six months, ranking it in the top quarter among comparable funds [3] - The ETF has a recent trading volume of 1.08 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 2.8 billion yuan over the past year, ranking first among comparable funds [3] Group 2 - The recent monetary policy includes two buyout reverse repurchase operations in September, with a total of 9,000 billion yuan in six-month buyout operations planned [3] - The Ministry of Finance emphasized risk prevention and resolution in key areas during a press conference, focusing on local government debt management and the establishment of a legal debt management system [3] - Research institutions note that since July, the rebound in short-term and low-grade credit bond yields has been limited, but there are still favorable factors supporting credit bonds in September [4]

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF fund (511200) has shown strong performance with a slight increase in value and high tracking accuracy, indicating a favorable investment environment in the credit bond market [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of September 16, 2025, the credit bond ETF fund has accumulated a 0.13% increase in value for the month, ranking first among comparable funds [1]. - The fund's net value has risen by 1.46% over the past six months, placing it in the top 4.76% among 483 index bond funds [1]. - The fund has experienced a maximum of five consecutive months of gains since inception, with a maximum gain of 1.62% and a monthly profit percentage of 71.43% [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Market Conditions - The People's Bank of China has increased liquidity measures, conducting two reverse repurchase operations in September, with a total of 600 billion yuan in operations on September 15 [1]. - The central bank's actions are in response to the maturity of 300 billion yuan in six-month reverse repos, indicating a proactive approach to maintaining market liquidity [1]. Group 3: Fund Composition - The credit bond ETF fund consists of 303 underlying bonds, all of which are AAA-rated and primarily issued by high-quality central state-owned enterprises [2]. - The fund covers a wide range of bond maturities from 0 to 30 years, effectively representing the entire yield curve with a focus on short to medium-term credit bonds [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond index leads the market, while the science - innovation bond index and the benchmark market - making credit bond index continue to decline with negative stage returns. Convertible bond - related ETFs lead the gains, and short - term financing ETFs achieve positive returns in the current period, while the current yields of other credit bond ETFs are negative [2][8]. - The second batch of science - innovation bond ETFs are being issued. The issuance of bond index sample bonds in the primary market shows differentiation, and the trading volume of convertible bond - related index component bonds is the largest in the secondary market [2][23]. - Looking ahead, the equity market is favored in the long term. Although convertible bond - related ETFs may fluctuate in the short term, they are still favored in the long term. It is recommended to pay attention to Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and CSI Short - Term Financing (511360.SH) [48]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **Bond Index Market Conditions**: The convertible bond index outperforms, with the CSI Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index and the Shanghai Investment - Grade Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index rising 1.02% and 0.54% respectively in the past two weeks, and 15.81% and 11.32% year - to - date. Most pure - bond indices decline due to market volatility and the stock - bond seesaw effect [8]. - **Bond ETF Market Conditions**: Convertible bond - related ETFs lead the gains, with Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and Shanghai Convertible Bond ETF (511180.SH) rising 0.89% and 0.44% respectively. Short - term financing ETF (511360.SH) gets a positive return of 0.04%. Most credit bond ETFs are in a discount state, indicating weak market sentiment [10]. - **Bond ETF Unit Net Value**: The unit net value of convertible bond - related ETFs shows an upward - fluctuating trend, not falling below 13 yuan in the past two weeks. The net value of science - innovation bond - related ETFs fluctuates downward, and that of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs also declines [13]. - **Bond ETF Fund Flows**: Short - term financing ETFs have continuous net inflows. The subscription scale of Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and Shanghai Convertible Bond ETF (511180.SH) decreases by 7.26 billion yuan. The trading volumes of science - innovation bond ETFs and short - term financing ETFs are relatively large, and the turnover rates of some science - innovation bond ETFs are high [16]. Credit Bond ETF Overview - Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and Short - Term Financing ETF (511360.SH) have scales exceeding 60 billion yuan. The growth rate of science - innovation bond - related ETFs slows down, with a scale of 123.646 billion yuan. The scale of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs ranks first, at 124.602 billion yuan [20]. - The annualized yields of Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and Shanghai Convertible Bond ETF (511180.SH) are 25.38% and 18.24% respectively. The highest annualized yield among pure - bond ETFs is 1.53% for Short - Term Financing ETF (511360.SH), and all science - innovation bond - related ETFs have negative annualized yields since July [20]. Credit Bond ETF Application, Issuance, and Dynamics On August 20, fourteen fund companies collectively submitted 14 science - innovation bond ETFs for the second batch, which were approved on September 8 and issued on September 12, tracking high - credit - rating science - innovation bond indices [23]. Primary Market - **Primary Issuance of Important Bond Index Sample Bonds**: Short - term financing and Shanghai market - making corporate bonds have the largest issuance volume and scale, at 69.163 billion yuan and 65.424 billion yuan respectively. The weighted average coupon rate of Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index sample bonds is 2.34%, ranking first [27]. - **Primary Issuance of Important Bond Index Sample Bonds This Year**: In early September, the issuance of Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index sample bonds accelerated, with most sample bonds having higher issuance rates and shorter terms. The issuance of important bond index sample bonds slowed down, but the issuance scale of Shanghai Urban Investment Bond sample bonds was close to that of last month, while the issuance scale of CSI Short - Term Financing sample bonds was only 22.91% of last month [28]. Secondary Market - **Trading of Important Bond Index Component Bonds**: The trading volume of convertible bond - related index component bonds is the largest, with a total of 926.721 billion yuan for the CSI Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index and the Shanghai Investment - Grade Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index. The Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index component bonds are traded at a premium, with a closing deviation of - 7.23bp [33]. - **Spreads of Important Credit Bond Indices**: The Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index has the highest credit spread, but it is less than 36bp. The yields of several important bond indices have been rising oscillatingly, and the valuation yield of the Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index is significantly higher than others [36]. Credit Events and Market News - **Postponed/Cancelled Bond Issuances**: In the past two weeks, 11 bonds with a planned issuance amount of 6.133 billion yuan were cancelled, including 8 for the inter - bank market and 3 for the Shanghai Stock Exchange [44]. - **Market News**: The Ministry of Finance will advance the quota of new local government debt in 2026, use the debt - resolution quota in advance, and take multiple measures to resolve existing implicit debts. As of the end of June 2025, over 60% of financing platforms have exited [45][47]. Investment Recommendations Considering the fundamentals, capital situation, and stock - bond market, it is recommended to pay attention to Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and CSI Short - Term Financing (511360.SH) [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - According to Wind data, among the bonds traded at a discount, "24 Railway MTN004B" had a relatively large deviation in valuation price. Among the bonds with rising net prices, "25 Quwenkong MTN001" led in terms of valuation price deviation. Among the secondary and perpetual bonds with rising net prices, "23 Hankou Bank Secondary Capital Bond 02" had a relatively large deviation in valuation price; among the commercial financial bonds with rising net prices, "25 Ruifeng Rural Commercial Bank Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond 01" led in terms of valuation price deviation. Among the bonds with a trading yield higher than 5%, real - estate bonds ranked high [2]. - The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the (0, 5] range. The trading terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the 3 - to 4 - year - term varieties having the highest proportion of discounted trades; the trading terms of secondary and perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, and the proportion of discounted trades was relatively high for all terms. In terms of industries, the bonds in the petroleum and petrochemical industry had the largest average deviation in valuation price [2]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Discounted Bond Trading Tracking - "24 Railway MTN004B" had a remaining term of 28.75 years, a valuation price deviation of - 0.67%, a valuation net price of 104.85 yuan, a valuation yield deviation of 3.29 bp, a valuation yield of 2.37%, and a trading volume of 24,042 yuan. It belonged to the transportation industry with an implied rating of AAA+ and a subject rating of AAA [4]. 3.2 Tracking of Bonds with Rising Net Prices - "25 Quwenkong MTN001" had a remaining term of 4.93 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.32%, a valuation net price of 100.14 yuan, a valuation yield deviation of - 7.23 bp, a valuation yield of 3.87%, and a trading volume of 5,989 yuan. It belonged to the urban investment industry with an implied rating of AA(2) and a subject rating of AAA [6]. 3.3 Tracking of Secondary and Perpetual Bond Trading - "23 Hankou Bank Secondary Capital Bond 02" had a remaining term of 3.24 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.01%, a valuation net price of 106.31 yuan, a valuation yield deviation of - 0.50 bp, a valuation yield of 2.35%, and a trading volume of 21,231 yuan. It was a city - commercial bank bond with an implied rating of AA - and a subject rating of AA+ [7]. 3.4 Tracking of Commercial Financial Bond Trading - "25 Ruifeng Rural Commercial Bank Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond 01" had a remaining term of 4.87 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.01%, a valuation net price of 98.36 yuan, a valuation yield deviation of - 0.27 bp, a valuation yield of 2.13%, and a trading volume of 983 yuan. It was a rural - commercial bank bond with an implied rating of AA and a subject rating of AA+ [8]. 3.5 Tracking of Bonds with a Trading Yield Higher than 5% - "22 Vanke 07" had a remaining term of 0.14 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.01%, a valuation net price of 99.73 yuan, a valuation yield deviation of - 0.62 bp, a valuation yield of 5.26%, and a trading volume of 2,569 yuan. It belonged to the real - estate industry with an implied rating of AA+ and a subject rating of AAA [9]. 3.6 Distribution of Credit Bond Valuation Deviations on the Day - The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the (0, 5] range [2]. 3.7 Distribution of Trading Terms of Non - Financial Credit Bonds on the Day - The trading terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the 3 - to 4 - year - term varieties having the highest proportion of discounted trades [2]. 3.8 Distribution of Trading Terms of Secondary and Perpetual Bonds on the Day - The trading terms of secondary and perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, and the proportion of discounted trades was relatively high for all terms [2]. 3.9 Proportion and Trading Volume of Discounted Trades of Non - Financial Credit Bonds in Each Industry - The bonds in the petroleum and petrochemical industry had the largest average deviation in valuation price [2].

Core Insights - The report indicates that commercial banks are increasing their allocation to interest rate bonds, while broad-based funds are reducing their holdings in government bonds and policy financial bonds [4][5][51]. Group 1: Interbank Leverage Ratio - As of the end of July, the interbank market leverage ratio was 106.81%, down from 107.64% at the end of the previous month, indicating a decrease of 0.83 percentage points and remaining below historical levels for the same period [2][11]. Group 2: Custody Data Overview - In July 2025, the total custody scale of bonds at China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House reached 173.03 trillion yuan, an increase of 174.49 billion yuan from the previous month [3][14]. Group 3: By Bond Type - The total custody scale of major interest rate bonds (government bonds, local government bonds, policy bank bonds) reached 114.81 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 143.74 billion yuan. Commercial banks were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 154.99 billion yuan, while broad-based funds, securities companies, and foreign institutions reduced their holdings [4][51]. - The custody scale of major credit bonds (corporate bonds, medium-term notes, short-term financing bonds, and ultra-short-term financing bonds) was 16.04 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 20.07 billion yuan. Broad-based funds and commercial banks were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 116.8 billion yuan and 71.7 billion yuan, respectively [4][30][51]. - The custody scale of interbank certificates of deposit was 20.74 trillion yuan, a decrease of 37.43 billion yuan, with commercial banks and foreign institutions being the main sellers [4][47][51]. Group 4: By Institution - The custody scale of commercial banks reached 84.13 trillion yuan, increasing by 137.58 billion yuan. They increased their holdings in interest rate bonds and credit bonds by 154.99 billion yuan and 7.17 billion yuan, respectively, while reducing their holdings in interbank certificates of deposit by 24.58 billion yuan [5][52]. - The custody scale of broad-based funds was 37.55 trillion yuan, decreasing by 83.7 billion yuan. They increased their holdings in credit bonds by 116.8 billion yuan but reduced their holdings in interest rate bonds and interbank certificates of deposit by 117.9 billion yuan and 2.26 billion yuan, respectively [5][52]. - Foreign institutions had a custody scale of 3.79 trillion yuan, decreasing by 301.6 billion yuan, with reductions in interest rate bonds, interbank certificates of deposit, and credit bonds by 129 billion yuan, 167.3 billion yuan, and 5.4 billion yuan, respectively [5][57].

Core Insights - The new mechanism for PPP projects and industrial gradient transfer may activate local economies [1] - The State Council has forwarded the latest guidance on "PPP stock projects," allowing the use of "general bonds and special bonds" for expenditures on these projects, which is a significant benefit for the main lending banks involved [1] - Long-term, the bank loans for PPP projects may achieve full repayment, significantly improving local government debt situations and enhancing the operational efficiency of local banks [1] - A series of "China's industrial transfer development docking activities" and the active introduction and support of eastern enterprises by various provinces and cities are facilitating the gradual transfer of certain industries from eastern regions to central and western regions [1] - This regional industrial collaboration and benefit-sharing mechanism is a major national strategy that may assist local governments in upgrading industries, increasing tax revenues, and continuously reducing debt ratios [1] Bond Market Insights - The Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has the best performance in controlling drawdown during the recent bond market adjustment, with the least market discount in the past week and a relatively stable net value [1] - The bond market adjustment began on August 8, 2025, and the table provided shows various ETFs with their respective performance metrics [1] - The data indicates that the average discount and year-to-date performance of several ETFs, including their pledge rates and drawdown metrics, are presented, highlighting the stability of the Ping An Company Bond ETF compared to others [1]

Macro and Strategy Research - The economic data for July 2025 shows that the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 6.0% and previous value of 6.8% [3] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 4.6% and previous value of 4.8% [4] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth is at 1.6%, also below expectations [4] Company Research: Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. (603799) - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 37.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.711 billion yuan, up 62.26% [15] - Nickel product shipments increased significantly, with nickel product output reaching 139,400 tons, a year-on-year growth of 83.91% [16] - The company has made significant progress in cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a sales net profit margin of 9.33%, an increase of 1.44 percentage points year-on-year [16] Industry Research: Metal Industry - Frequent bidding by major magnetic material manufacturers is expected to boost the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide [10] - The steel industry is facing supply constraints due to tightened production policies, but demand may be impacted by construction site shutdowns [11] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate due to insufficient fundamental support, with potential demand driven by seasonal inventory accumulation [11] - The rare earth market is seeing improved inquiry conditions, with light rare earth prices expected to be supported in the short term [12]