Core Viewpoint - TikTok is navigating significant uncertainty regarding potential bans while aggressively pursuing commercialization to expand its influence and counteract the threat of being banned [4][10]. Group 1: User Growth and Market Position - As of May, TikTok's overseas monthly active users surpassed 1 billion for the first time, indicating strong user growth despite regulatory challenges [5]. - TikTok has accumulated substantial influence among young users, which has allowed it to engage with political figures like Trump and Biden during critical moments, such as the presidential elections [9]. Group 2: E-commerce Strategy and Challenges - TikTok Shop, launched in the second half of 2023, is becoming a crucial revenue driver, achieving a GMV that surpassed its UK counterpart developed over four years within just one and a half years [10]. - The e-commerce team has set an ambitious growth target of nearly 100% for 2025, with expectations for the U.S. market to see close to 200% growth [11]. - However, the e-commerce segment faces challenges, including a decline in daily sales since March and significant price increases due to tariffs, which have led to reduced consumer engagement [12][13]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Future Outlook - The potential for a ban remains a significant concern, with predictions suggesting that TikTok may have to relinquish control or equity to continue operating in the U.S. market [18]. - The unpredictable nature of Trump's decisions adds to the uncertainty, as he may use the situation as a negotiation tactic [18]. - The current political climate is influencing businesses' confidence in TikTok, with many merchants reconsidering their investment in the platform and exploring alternatives like Amazon [22].

与时间赛跑的TikTok。 作者 | 兰杰 又一次延期后的禁令生效在即，TikTok何去何从？ 在TikTok自己也不确定是否会被封禁的一年，它选择了将"大而不倒"的路径走到底，定下了更为激进的商业化目标，以进一步扩大自身的影响 力，以此来对抗随时会重演的封禁历史。 据SenSorTower数据显示，今年5月， TikTok 移动端海外月活跃用户首次突破10亿大关。这背后是在不确定性的当下，TikTok仍在努力扩张。 但数次通过行政令让TikTok看到希望的特朗普，在关税上的草率决策，同样 影响到 TikTok 重点押注的电商业务。 转眼间，75天期限又即将到期。此前特朗普在5月4日接受NBC采访时曾表示，若6月19日前仍未达成出售协议，或将第三次延长TikTok"不卖就 禁"的期限。平台的命运又一次来到了不确定性的拐点上。 与时间赛跑的TikTok 编辑 | 乔芊 " 大公司到其他国家发展的策略可以是「 大而不倒」 或者「 大而不尖」 ，前者指的是公司的影响力足够大，以至于没人敢摧毁它，后者指的是 公司在壮大的同时，不惹人注目。 "人民大学经济学院教授聂辉华向36氪表示。 具有社交属性的TikTok显然一开 ...