（来源：紫金天风期货研究所） 来源：紫金天风期货研究所 于是，不少投资者开始担忧全球金融市场流动性的问题。那么，这种担忧是否有道理呢？？这篇文章，我们将讨论全球周期性流动性危机的原理。 避险资产对金融系统的扭曲 一提到避险资产，人们想到的是黄金和BTC。然而，"避险资产"是一个极其有毒的概念，它的危险之处类似于"安全带"，诚然安全带能够增加人们在事故 中存活的几率，但是，因为有安全带保护而鲁莽驾驶，是灾难的开端。 事实上，真正的避险资产只有现金、短债以及货币基金这样的高流动资产。但是，在贪婪的驱使下，人们总是会用避险资产来替代现金。 文/沧海一土狗 ps：2700字 引子 近期，BTC价格大幅下挫，已经击穿了10万美金大关。 在11月14日，现货黄金价格和BTC价格发生共振，一度下跌3%+，收跌2%+。 上图向我们展示了一个数字化的示例： 在正常情况下，投资者只拿现金避险，系统中有20%的现金和80%的风险资产。在这种情况下，风险资产的价格取决于：1、现金的规模，即货币政策； 2、风险偏好，即社会的平均风险偏好。 为了摆脱央行束缚，投资者想要玩花活，用其他的东西来替代现金。于是，避险资产应运而生。 在变异情况 ...

Core Viewpoint - TikTok is navigating a precarious situation with potential bans looming, yet it is aggressively pursuing commercialization to expand its influence and counteract uncertainties [3][5]. User Growth and Market Position - TikTok's overseas monthly active users surpassed 1 billion for the first time in May, indicating its ongoing expansion despite uncertainties [4]. - The platform has gained significant influence among young users, which has been leveraged in political contexts, such as during the U.S. presidential elections [9]. E-commerce Strategy and Challenges - TikTok Shop, launched in the second half of 2023, is seen as a crucial driver for revenue growth, with ambitious growth targets set for 2025, including nearly 100% overall growth and close to 200% in the U.S. market [9]. - Despite initial slow growth in the U.S. market, TikTok Shop's GMV during the Black Friday period in 2024 achieved a 187% year-on-year increase, surpassing the platform's overall growth rate [12]. Impact of Tariffs and Pricing - Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have adversely affected TikTok Shop's development, leading to significant price increases for products, which in turn has caused a decline in consumer engagement and sales [10][14]. - The price hikes have led to a shift in consumer behavior, with many opting for other e-commerce platforms, impacting the sales performance of TikTok Shop [10]. Regulatory Uncertainty and Future Outlook - The potential for a ban remains a significant concern, with predictions suggesting that TikTok may have to relinquish control or equity to continue operating in the U.S. market [16]. - The unpredictable nature of Trump's administration adds to the uncertainty, as his negotiation tactics may influence TikTok's operational future [16]. Strategic Considerations for Chinese Companies - Chinese companies expanding overseas are advised to prioritize political and corporate relationships, as seen in the strategic choices made by other firms like Kuaishou and Meituan [17][19]. - The current political climate and TikTok's challenges are leading businesses to reconsider their investments in the platform, with some reverting to more stable options like Amazon [19].