Core Viewpoint - Recent significant decline in BTC price, breaking below $100,000, raises concerns about global financial market liquidity [3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On November 14, both spot gold and BTC prices experienced a drop of over 3%, closing down more than 2% [4] - Investors are increasingly worried about liquidity issues in the global financial market, prompting a discussion on the principles of cyclical liquidity crises [6] Group 2: Safe-Haven Assets - The concept of "safe-haven assets" is critiqued, highlighting that true safe-haven assets are cash, short-term bonds, and money market funds, rather than gold and BTC [7] - The article illustrates a scenario where investors replace cash with safe-haven assets, leading to a distorted pricing framework for risk assets [9][10] Group 3: Historical Context and Evolution - The article references Ray Dalio's strategy of shorting cash, which has evolved into a widespread practice among investors, leading to inflated prices for gold and BTC [16][20] - The historical context of credit default swaps (CDS) during the 2008 financial crisis is compared to the current reliance on gold and BTC as safe-haven assets, indicating a cycle of moral hazard [27][29] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has been pressured by the "too big to fail" logic, with financial institutions evolving from needing a single "emperor" to a complex web of interconnected entities [30][31] - Despite the Fed's tight monetary policy, financial institutions have found ways to circumvent these restrictions, leading to the creation of "fake cash" through safe-haven assets [32][34] Group 5: Future Implications - The inevitability of intermittent liquidity crises is emphasized, suggesting that without significant crises, the financial system cannot compel the Fed to convert "fake money" into "real money" [37]

Core Viewpoint - TikTok is navigating a precarious situation with potential bans looming, yet it is aggressively pursuing commercialization to expand its influence and counteract uncertainties [3][5]. User Growth and Market Position - TikTok's overseas monthly active users surpassed 1 billion for the first time in May, indicating its ongoing expansion despite uncertainties [4]. - The platform has gained significant influence among young users, which has been leveraged in political contexts, such as during the U.S. presidential elections [9]. E-commerce Strategy and Challenges - TikTok Shop, launched in the second half of 2023, is seen as a crucial driver for revenue growth, with ambitious growth targets set for 2025, including nearly 100% overall growth and close to 200% in the U.S. market [9]. - Despite initial slow growth in the U.S. market, TikTok Shop's GMV during the Black Friday period in 2024 achieved a 187% year-on-year increase, surpassing the platform's overall growth rate [12]. Impact of Tariffs and Pricing - Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have adversely affected TikTok Shop's development, leading to significant price increases for products, which in turn has caused a decline in consumer engagement and sales [10][14]. - The price hikes have led to a shift in consumer behavior, with many opting for other e-commerce platforms, impacting the sales performance of TikTok Shop [10]. Regulatory Uncertainty and Future Outlook - The potential for a ban remains a significant concern, with predictions suggesting that TikTok may have to relinquish control or equity to continue operating in the U.S. market [16]. - The unpredictable nature of Trump's administration adds to the uncertainty, as his negotiation tactics may influence TikTok's operational future [16]. Strategic Considerations for Chinese Companies - Chinese companies expanding overseas are advised to prioritize political and corporate relationships, as seen in the strategic choices made by other firms like Kuaishou and Meituan [17][19]. - The current political climate and TikTok's challenges are leading businesses to reconsider their investments in the platform, with some reverting to more stable options like Amazon [19].