9月30日，因临时财政拨款未能及时通过，美国政府时隔近7年再次陷入停摆。此次政府"关门"有何特殊之 处，可能对美国经济及市场产生哪些影响？ 一问：今年美国政府为什么"关门"？医保补贴政策是核心矛盾 今年美国政府停摆，主因是两党就是否延长医疗保险补贴政策发生争执、未能及时通过临时拨款。 民主党 坚持延长奥巴马《平价医疗法案》的增强型医疗保险税收抵免，并要求撤销《美丽大法案》中对医疗补助 的削减条款；共和党则指责民主党强行捆绑议题，应为政府停摆负责。 市场预计政府停摆时长或达15天以上。 截至10月6日，众议院已通过临时拨款法案，但参议院多次投票均未 能达到60票。市场预测显示，停摆15天以上的平均概率达67%。政府重开需两党达成妥协，短期临时拨款以 及《平价医疗法案》保费税收抵免临时延长的可能性较高。 二问：政府"关门"时会发生什么？非必要政府活动停止运作，统计数据暂停发布 政府"关门"期间，非必要政府活动停止运作，涉及生命财产、国家安全的必要活动依然可正常运转。 联邦 统计与数据可能暂停发布，主要受影响的有美国人口普查局的零售、地产等数据；美国劳工统计局的非农 就业、失业率、CPI等数据；军事、执法、社保、医 ...

Group 1 - The core reason for the government shutdown is the dispute over extending healthcare subsidy policies, with Democrats advocating for the extension of the Affordable Care Act's enhanced tax credits and Republicans opposing the bundling of these issues with temporary funding [1][8][41] - The market anticipates the government shutdown could last over 15 days, with a 67% probability for such a duration based on trading predictions [1][9][41] Group 2 - During the government shutdown, non-essential government activities cease, while essential services related to life, property, and national security continue to operate [2][12][42] - Federal statistical data releases may be suspended, affecting key economic indicators such as retail sales, employment rates, and CPI [2][14][42] Group 3 - Historically, the U.S. government has experienced 11 shutdowns since 1980, averaging 8.6 days in duration, with the longest being 34 days [3][16][43] - Shutdowns are typically triggered by two types of disputes: fiscal policy disagreements and political maneuvering, often involving healthcare and immigration policies [3][21][22][43] Group 4 - The impact of a government shutdown on GDP is relatively minor, with a one-month shutdown estimated to reduce GDP by only 0.02% [4][24][44] - The primary channels through which shutdowns affect the economy include federal employee income and policy uncertainty, with wage back-pay mitigating long-term impacts [4][24][44] Group 5 - Government shutdowns generally have minimal effects on non-farm employment, although they may temporarily raise the unemployment rate, which typically reverts after the government reopens [5][29][30][45] - For instance, the 2019 shutdown led to a temporary increase in the unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points, which later decreased by 0.2 points upon reopening [5][30][45] Group 6 - The long-term effects of government shutdowns on major asset classes are limited, with the S&P 500 index showing an average increase of 2.91% during shutdown periods [6][35][46] - U.S. Treasury yields tend to decline during shutdowns, with the 10-year yield averaging a drop of 2.25 basis points [6][36][46] - The U.S. dollar typically weakens slightly, averaging a decline of 0.30%, while gold prices may rise modestly [6][36][46]

Group 1: Government Shutdown Reasons and Duration - The primary reason for the government shutdown is the dispute over extending healthcare subsidies, with Democrats advocating for the extension of the Affordable Care Act's tax credits and Republicans opposing this linkage[1][12]. - Market predictions indicate a shutdown duration of over 15 days has a 67% probability, with the House passing a temporary funding bill but the Senate failing to reach the required 60 votes[2][13]. Group 2: Impact on Government Operations and Economic Indicators - During the shutdown, non-essential government activities cease, affecting the release of key statistical data such as retail sales and employment figures, while essential services like military and social security continue[3][16]. - Historically, the U.S. government has experienced 11 shutdowns since 1980, averaging 8.6 days, with the longest lasting 34 days[4][20]. Group 3: Economic Impact of Shutdown - A one-month shutdown is estimated to impact GDP by only 0.02%, with the 2019 shutdown resulting in a permanent GDP loss of approximately $30 billion, also around 0.02% of that year's GDP[5][28]. - The unemployment rate may see a temporary increase of 0.1 percentage points during a shutdown, but typically returns to normal levels shortly after[6][34]. Group 4: Market Reactions to Shutdown - Historical data shows that the S&P 500 index has an average increase of 2.91% during shutdowns, with a 75% success rate of positive returns[7][38]. - U.S. Treasury yields tend to decline during shutdowns, with 10-year bonds averaging a drop of 2.25 basis points and 2-year bonds dropping 8 basis points[7][38].